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Stocks
FTAI Aviation Ltd.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall55
Balanced — near the middle of the marketFalling StarF 6/9SafeBetter than 55% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
24
40.4x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
90
45.3%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
69
19.6%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
46
2.9x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
38
0.91%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
28
29.2%▲2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
90
5▲3Top tier
FTAI

FTAI FTAI Aviation Ltd.

FTAI Aviation Ltd. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
186.06
▲ ⁦+3.31%⁩ (+5.97)
Market Cap$18.5B
Beta1.58
52w Low52w High
149.50323.51
Last Week
⁦+0.24%⁩
Last Month
⁦-17.53%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-17.59%⁩
Last Year
⁦+12.50%⁩
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$186
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$325
⁦+75%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$290–$360⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
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Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$325.00
⁦+74.7%⁩
Current Price $186.06·Median $325.00
Low
$290.00
High
$360.00
Current price
$186.06
Average target
$325.00
Street summary

FTAI Aviation Price Target Revision Analysis

Bullish tilt

FTAI's price targets have seen a notable downward revision over the past thirty days, with the average price target falling from 359.5 to 325, a decline of 9.6%. However, this consensus has stabilized over the last week with a variance in estimates ranging from a low of 290 to a high of 360, indicating a cautious reassessment by analysts despite the price target remaining significantly higher than the current price of 194.98.

As of 2026-08-28
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+4.4%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.40
Buy
Analyst coverage
10
Buy conviction
100%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
38%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time10 analysts rating
4
6
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.40 → 4.40
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-21
    Morgan Stanley
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-08-02
    Jefferies
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-05-08
    Morgan Stanley
    Overweight· $319.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    40.36x
    5.69x45.54x
    Above average
  • Forward P/E
    16.52x
    4.57x36.58x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    20.74x
    3.43x27.47x
    Above average
  • FCF Yield
    -2.5%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    45.3%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Exceptional
  • EPS Growth YoY
    13.3%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    39.2%
    8.6%54.6%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    19.6%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.91x
    0.55x4.37x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    0.9%
    0.1%4.8%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    31.0%
    6.6%80.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    4.79
    -5.667.97
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

FTAI Aviation operates through three interconnected businesses built on its aftermarket turbine expertise: Aerospace Products for maintaining, repairing, and exchanging CFM56 engines and modules; Asset Management for managing aviation assets through SCI vehicles; and Power for converting CFM56 engines into Mod-1 power-generation units. In Aerospace Products, the company generates revenue from engine services and sales of refurbished modules to aviation customers and SCI, while the asset business generates management fees, co-investment returns, leasing income, and sales gains, and Power aims to sell turbines to the joint venture and then share in the profits from selling the units to customers.

In Q2 FY2026, revenue was $953.1 million, gross profit was $317.3 million, net income was $125.1 million, and earnings per share were $1.13; representing a gross margin of approximately 33.3% and a net margin of approximately 13.1%. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization were $291.4 million, comprising $249.7 million from Aerospace Products and $88.2 million from Aviation Leasing, offset by negative $46.5 million from Corporate & Other, including intersegment eliminations and Power startup expenses.

Aerospace Products revenue in Q2 FY2026 increased 78% year over year and 18% quarter over quarter, while its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization rose 51% year over year and 12% quarter over quarter, but its margin remained at 29%. This mix shows that the primary growth driver is increased CFM56 module production and service for external customers, while the leasing business is undergoing a deliberate transition toward the less balance-sheet-intensive SCI model, and Power is incurring startup expenses ahead of its targeted contribution to FY2027 earnings.

What's Driving the Stock

  • FTAI increased its share of the engine services market from 12% to 14% during Q2 FY2026 and refurbished 296 CFM56 modules, up 61% year over year, bringing first-half production to 566 modules. Based on this progress, it raised its FY2026 production target from 1,050 to 1,200 modules, with total effective capacity of 3,000 modules annually.
  • The J&F Power Systems venture signed a five-year master supply agreement with a U.S. hyperscaler customer, along with an initial purchase order worth $1.465 billion for Mod-1 deliveries in 2027. The contract includes a significant upfront payment and payments tied to production, testing, and commissioning milestones, reducing working capital requirements during the production ramp-up.
  • Management is targeting $2.3 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for 2027: $1.4 billion from Aerospace Products, $450 million from Aviation Leasing, and $450 million from Power. It explained that the $450 million Power estimate is at the low end of an internal range of $450 million to $750 million and assumes the delivery of significantly fewer than 100 units.
  • The company added two maintenance partnerships with GMF AeroAsia in Jakarta and EgyptAir in Cairo and expanded its network in Rome, Lisbon, and Montreal. The new 113,000-square-foot Lisbon facility is targeting capacity of more than 300 modules annually, while the Rome facility will add testing capacity for CFM56 and LEAP engines.
  • On August 17, 2026, FTAI closed a $2 billion warehouse financing facility for the second investment vehicle, with an option to increase it by $1 billion, bringing potential capacity to $3 billion, to finance acquisitions of 737NG and A320ceo aircraft. SCI also launched a 2026 vehicle targeting $6 billion in capital commitments, after the 2025 vehicle became fully committed with more than 300 aircraft closed or subject to letters of intent.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The bullish case is based on proven growth in the core business; CFM56 module production increased 61% year over year, Aerospace Products revenue rose 78%, and its market share increased from 12% to 14% in Q2 FY2026.
  • +The first Mod-1 contract, worth $1.465 billion, provides initial commercial validation for the Power business, while the upfront payment and milestone payments reduce the financing risks associated with ramping up production. The company is targeting $450 million in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization from this business in 2027, with an internal range extending to $750 million if additional contracts are signed.
  • +The transition to SCI supports a less balance-sheet-intensive model; in Q2 FY2026, Aviation Leasing generated $35 million in management fees and co-investment returns associated with the 2025 vehicle. Leverage also remained at 2.7 times, within the target range of 2.5 to 3 times, and Moody's upgraded the credit rating to Ba1.
  • +The company maintained its adjusted free cash flow target of approximately $1.2 billion for FY2026 before new growth initiatives and generated $255 million in the first half despite funding the final $95 million capital call for the 2025 SCI vehicle. It increased its quarterly dividend from $0.45 to $0.50 per share, marking the fourth consecutive quarterly increase.

Valuation

The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $325 and a wide range of $290 to $360. The average is slightly above the 52-week range high of $323.51, but the wide spread of targets, the $100 million reduction in the Aviation Leasing forecast, and pressure on the Aerospace Products margin to approximately 30% indicate that achieving this valuation depends heavily on executing growth in Power and SCI.

BuyAnalyst target: $325(+74.7%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What was the largest driver of FTAI's results in Q2 FY2026?

Aerospace Products was the largest driver, generating $249.7 million in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization at a 29% margin. The business's revenue increased 78% year over year and 18% quarter over quarter, while its adjusted earnings rose 51% year over year. This was supported by the refurbishment of 296 CFM56 modules, an increase of 61% compared with Q2 FY2025.

Why did FTAI reduce its FY2026 Aviation Leasing forecast?

FTAI redirected a larger share of engine module production to external Aerospace Products customers instead of replenishing its balance-sheet leasing fleet. This coincided with SCI's growth, but the reduction in balance-sheet assets occurred before the contribution from the investment vehicles had fully ramped up. Therefore, the company reduced its FY2026 Aviation Leasing earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization forecast by $100 million to $475 million.

Why is the $1.465 billion Mod-1 contract important?

The J&F Power Systems venture signed a five-year master agreement and an initial purchase order worth $1.465 billion with a U.S. hyperscaler customer for 2027 deliveries. The contract includes a significant upfront payment and milestone payments, allowing the customer to fund part of the production ramp-up as it progresses. FTAI is targeting $450 million in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization from Power in 2027, while Mod-1 testing continues in Miami following testing in Montreal.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −The company reduced its FY2026 Aviation Leasing earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization forecast by $100 million to $475 million because redirecting module production to external customers reduced reinvestment in the leasing portfolio faster than SCI's contribution grew. Management also expects this business's contribution to decline to $450 million in 2027 before the full impact of SCI's expansion is realized.
  • −Aerospace Products profitability faces mix pressure; its margin contracted by approximately 500 basis points year over year and remained at 29% in Q2 FY2026. Management expects margins to remain near 30% for one to two years as it prioritizes market share and heavy repair work, which may generate a margin of approximately 25% compared with approximately 40% for some lighter work.
  • −The company reduced its total adjusted free cash flow forecast for FY2026 from $915 million to $878 million after accounting for growth initiatives, including a $150 million investment to accelerate the Mod-1 production buildout and an additional $30 million for Power research and development. This increases free cash flow sensitivity to the successful production ramp-up of a new business built from the ground up and to the timing of its deliveries.
  • −A significant portion of the 2027 forecast depends on executing the newly established Power business; the $450 million earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization target assumes a production ramp-up and commercial deliveries following testing. Management acknowledged that delivery timing could shift and that production ramp-up costs exist, and viewed the assumption that deliveries begin in 2027 as more conservative than recognizing a contribution in FY2026.
  • −The CFM56 ecosystem remains supply-constrained, and FTAI has increased its capacity to 3,000 modules annually through multiple locations and partnerships in Jakarta, Cairo, Rome, Lisbon, and Montreal. Despite strong demand, achieving the target of 1,200 modules in FY2026 and then 1,700 modules in 2027 requires coordination of technicians, parts, testing, and production ramp-up across an expanding international network.
  • −The valuation carries elevated-expectation risk; the average analyst price target of $325 is slightly above the 52-week range high of $323.51, while targets range from $290 to $360. This divergence reflects material uncertainty about balancing growth in Aerospace Products and Power against the reduced leasing forecast and margin pressure.
How does FTAI plan to increase engine module production?

The company increased its total effective capacity from 2,000 to 3,000 modules annually by expanding its network and partnerships. The additions include GMF AeroAsia in Jakarta and EgyptAir in Cairo, along with expansions in Rome, Lisbon, and Montreal. After producing 566 modules in the first half, it raised its FY2026 target to 1,200 modules and set an internal target of 1,700 modules in 2027.

How does the less asset-intensive SCI model work?

The model gradually transfers ownership of leased assets to investment vehicles managed and partially owned by FTAI instead of retaining all of them on its balance sheet. The 2025 vehicle became fully committed with more than 300 aircraft closed or subject to letters of intent and issued $612 million in ABS notes that enabled a special distribution in July 2026. The 2026 vehicle is targeting $6 billion in capital commitments, and FTAI will commit 15% of it while performing engine maintenance through its operations.

What are the key figures to monitor in the 2027 forecast?

Management is targeting total segment earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $2.3 billion in 2027. The target consists of $1.4 billion from Aerospace Products, $450 million from Aviation Leasing, and $450 million from Power. Executing Mod-1 production, achieving the target of 1,700 modules in Aerospace Products, and transitioning the majority of leasing earnings to SCI are critical factors in reaching these figures.