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Stocks
Fortuna Mining Corp.
FSM

FSM Fortuna Mining Corp.

Fortuna Mining Corp. · NYSE
Market Closed
11.99
▼ ⁦-0.50%⁩ (-0.06)
Market Cap$3.7B
Beta2.12
52w Low52w High
7.3213.85
Last Week
⁦-5.29%⁩
Last Month
⁦+15.40%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+25.95%⁩
Last Year
⁦+60.08%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall99
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 8/9Better than 99% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
89
10.0x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
94
29.4%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
88
20.3%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
89
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
41
—2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
65
26.6%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
77
4▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$12
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$15
⁦+21%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$15–$15⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$23
⁦+89%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦13.3⁩% discount · ⁦12⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$15–$23⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
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Monthly plan
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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$14.50
⁦+20.9%⁩
Current Price $11.99·Median $14.50
Low
$14.50
High
$14.50
Street summary

Fortuna Mining (FSM) Price Target Analysis

Bullish tilt

Fortuna Mining stock has seen a tangible improvement in analyst outlook over the past thirty days, with the average price target rising by 3.57% from 14.0 to 14.5. This increase was accompanied by an rise in the number of analysts covering the stock to two, both of whom showed complete consensus by setting the same price target at 14.5 (zero dispersion), indicating increased certainty regarding the stock's fair value compared to its current price of 10.83.

As of 2026-08-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.25
Buy
Analyst coverage
4
Buy conviction
75%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time4 analysts rating
2
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.25 → 4.25
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-30
    Scotiabank
    Sector Outperform
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-02-04
    CIBC
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-01-26
    Scotiabank
    Outperform· $14.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    9.99x
    4.94x39.51x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    7.25x
    3.70x29.59x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    4.98x
    2.62x20.92x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    10.7%
    -21.3%8.9%
    Exceptional
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    29.4%
    -21.2%90.4%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    137.0%
    -249.5%198.4%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    59.0%
    7.6%58.9%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    20.3%
    -52.6%20.2%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-05-07 data

Company Overview

Fortuna Mining Corp. is a multi-asset mining company focused on producing gold, silver, and base metals from operations distributed across West Africa and Latin America. Its portfolio includes the Seguela mine in Côte d’Ivoire, the Lindero gold mine in Argentina, and the Caylloma silver, zinc, and lead mine in Peru, while the Diamba Sud project in Senegal represents one of its two main growth pillars. The company generates revenue from metal sales, so its results are directly affected by production volumes, realized gold and silver prices, and mining and processing efficiency.

In fiscal Q1 2026, Fortuna reported record sales of $342 million, adjusted net income of $111 million or $0.36 per share, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $219 million, equivalent to approximately 64% of sales. Free cash flow from continuing operations reached $174 million, while production totaled 72,900 gold equivalent ounces. Within the operating mix, Seguela produced approximately 42,016 ounces of gold, Lindero generated sales of $101.5 million with an operating margin before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of 69%, while Caylloma recorded sales of $34.6 million and a margin of 62%.

The annual financial statements show significant improvement in fiscal 2025, as revenue increased to $947.1 million from $677.2 million in fiscal 2024, gross profit rose to $466.9 million from $233.4 million, and net income reached $311.1 million compared with $141.9 million. Earnings per share also increased to $0.90 from $0.41, after the company had reported net losses of $43.6 million in fiscal 2023 and $135.9 million in fiscal 2022.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Fortuna is targeting an approximately 60% increase in annual gold production within twenty-four months from the May 7, 2026 call, reaching approximately 500 thousand ounces annually, based on the Seguela expansion and bringing Diamba Sud into production; management emphasizes that both projects are already within the portfolio and do not depend on acquisitions or new exploration successes.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Record realized metal prices supported fiscal Q1 2026 results, with sales reaching $342 million, adjusted net income $111 million, and free cash flow from continuing operations $174 million, all record quarterly levels according to management.
  • Proven and probable mineral reserves, according to the April 23, 2026 update, increased by 50% after depletion to 3 million ounces of gold, while measured resources within the indicated confidence category rose by 56% to 2.1 million ounces, and inferred resources increased by 4% to 2.2 million ounces, supporting expansion plans and longer mine lives.
  • Seguela outperformed the mine plan in fiscal Q1 2026 by producing 42,016 ounces of gold, up 14% from the previous quarter, with cash costs of $679 per ounce. The 6-megawatt solar power project also neared commissioning, and the company expects it to reduce the unit cost of electricity by approximately 35% compared with grid-supplied power.
  • Fortuna ended fiscal Q1 2026 with total liquidity of $816 million and net cash of $493 million, enabling it to fund approximately $330 million of exploration, sustaining, and non-sustaining capital expenditures during fiscal 2026 from internal cash flows; 56% of this spending is allocated to growth and exploration.
  • The company returned $40 million to shareholders from the beginning of fiscal 2026 through May 7, 2026 by repurchasing 4.2 million shares, including $20 million during Q1, equivalent to 11% of operating free cash flow for the period.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The internal growth trajectory is the strongest element of the positive case, as the company is targeting an approximately 60% increase in annual gold production to approximately 500 thousand ounces within twenty-four months through Seguela and Diamba Sud, two assets already in the portfolio that management described as executable and funded by a strong balance sheet.
    • +The company combines profitability with cash generation, as fiscal Q1 2026 recorded adjusted net income of $111 million and free cash flow from continuing operations of $174 million, while net cash increased during the quarter by $111 million to $493 million.
    • +Growth in the resource base supports production sustainability; proven and probable reserves increased to 3 million ounces of gold after an annual increase of 50%, alongside growth in indicated resources to 2.1 million ounces and inferred resources to 2.2 million ounces according to the April 23, 2026 update.
    • +The existing assets demonstrated tangible operational diversification in fiscal Q1 2026: Seguela outperformed the plan, Lindero increased production by 12% compared with the corresponding period of fiscal 2025, and Caylloma maintained stable production that included 258 thousand ounces of silver, 11.5 million pounds of zinc, and 8.2 million pounds of lead.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The recent jump in earnings depends heavily on record metal prices; management attributed the strong performance in fiscal Q1 2026 to higher realized gold and silver prices, making sales and cash flows sensitive to any decline in metal prices.
    • −The group’s all-in sustaining cost reached $2,107 per gold equivalent ounce in fiscal Q1 2026, including approximately $122 per ounce associated with external factors that include higher royalties as the gold price rose and increased share-based compensation. Seguela’s cost is also trending toward the upper end of the guidance range due to accelerated mining of the southern portion of Sunbird and a change in the underground mine development route.
    • −Management expects free cash flow to decline in fiscal Q2 and Q3 2026 because of approximately $140 million in tax payments during the year, with nearly 50% in Q2 and 35% in Q3, alongside an annual capital program of approximately $330 million.
    • −The accounting tax burden is increasing, as Fortuna expects the effective tax rate for fiscal 2026 to rise to the high-thirties range compared with approximately 28% to 30% in previous quarters, due to the shift in the Lindero mine’s deferred tax position from a tax asset to a tax liability.
    • −The timing of Diamba Sud’s development depends on regulatory approvals and the construction decision; as of May 7, 2026, environmental approval and the final exploitation permit were still pending, despite ongoing early works with a budget of $100 million for fiscal 2026.
    • −The geographic footprint entails exposure to operational and political risks across several jurisdictions, and management described its model as sometimes operating in frontier regions in exchange for accepting higher perceived geopolitical risks. In Argentina, inflation rates and the strength of the peso increased Lindero’s U.S. dollar-denominated costs during fiscal Q1 2026.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average target of $14.50, which is also the highest and lowest published target, while this target is approximately 4.7% above the 52-week range high of $13.85, compared with a low of $7.55. No price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data, so the stock’s valuation hinges on Fortuna’s ability to convert its approximately 60% production growth plan into additional cash flows, balanced against the risks of higher sustaining costs, taxes, and regulatory execution for the Diamba Sud project.

    BuyAnalyst target: $14.5(+20.9%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is the main driver of Fortuna Mining’s growth during fiscal 2026 and beyond?

    The company is targeting an approximately 60% increase in annual gold production within twenty-four months from the May 7, 2026 call, reaching approximately 500 thousand ounces. This growth depends on expanding the Seguela mine in Côte d’Ivoire and bringing the Diamba Sud project in Senegal into production. Management says both projects are already within the portfolio and do not require acquisitions or new exploration success to achieve the plan. The company also allocated 56% of an approximately $330 million capital and exploration program in fiscal 2026 to growth and exploration.

    How was the financial performance in fiscal Q1 2026?

    Sales reached a record $342 million in fiscal Q1 2026. Adjusted net income was $111 million, or $0.36 per share, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $219 million. Free cash flow from continuing operations reached $174 million, the highest quarterly cash generation in the company’s history according to management. Fortuna ended the period with net cash of $493 million and total liquidity of $816 million.

    How important is Seguela to FSM stock results?

    Seguela produced approximately 42,016 ounces of gold in fiscal Q1 2026, up 14% from the previous quarter, and ended the period ahead of the mine plan. Cash costs were $679 per ounce, supported by higher production and a lower quarterly strip ratio of 13.9 compared with a planned annual level above 16. Sunbird’s reserves also increased by 34% and its resources by 55% according to the April 2026 announcement. The 6-megawatt solar power project is expected to deliver approximately 35% savings in the unit cost of electricity compared with the grid.

    What is the status of the Diamba Sud project and its funding?

    Diamba Sud is a growth project in Senegal that Fortuna plans to bring into production as part of its path toward approximately 500 thousand ounces of annual gold production. The company allocated a budget of $100 million for early works at the project during fiscal 2026, and non-sustaining spending on it reached $8.8 million in Q1. During the May 7, 2026 call, the feasibility study was progressing toward completion, while environmental approval and the final exploitation permit remained pending. Funding capacity is supported by $493 million of net cash and $816 million of total liquidity at the end of fiscal Q1 2026.

    What are the main risks that could pressure Fortuna’s earnings?

    Earnings are strongly linked to gold and silver prices, and management attributed the record fiscal Q1 2026 results to higher realized metal prices. All-in sustaining cost reached $2,107 per gold equivalent ounce, including $122 per ounce resulting primarily from royalties and share-based compensation. The company also expects to pay approximately $140 million in taxes during fiscal 2026 and for the effective tax rate to rise to the high-thirties range. Added to this are risks related to securing Diamba Sud permits and the pressures of inflation and peso strength on Lindero’s costs in Argentina.

    How did Fortuna’s annual results change between fiscal 2023 and 2025?

    In fiscal 2023, Fortuna reported revenue of $842.4 million, a net loss of $43.6 million, and negative earnings per share of $0.17. In fiscal 2024, it shifted to net income of $141.9 million despite revenue declining to $677.2 million, and earnings per share reached $0.41. Fiscal 2025 revenue then increased to $947.1 million, while gross profit rose to $466.9 million and net income to $311.1 million. Earnings per share in fiscal 2025 reached approximately $0.90, reflecting a clear improvement in profitability compared with the previous two years.