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Stocks
First Solar, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall95
Excellent — top fifth of the marketContrarianF 8/9SafeBetter than 95% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
74
12.9x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
70
23.8%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
76
17.3%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
92
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
85
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
47
21.9%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
68
24▲3Top tier
FSLR

FSLR First Solar, Inc.

First Solar, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
209.03
▲ ⁦+0.90%⁩ (+1.86)
Market Cap$22.5B
Beta1.75
52w Low52w High
182.99320.95
Last Week
⁦+4.70%⁩
Last Month
⁦-12.66%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-20.28%⁩
Last Year
⁦+2.86%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$209
Analyst target · 13 analysts
$276
⁦+32%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$197–$324⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$146
⁦-30%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦12.2⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$146–$276⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 13 analysts setting price target
$271.94
⁦+30.1%⁩
Current Price $209.03·Median $276.00
Low
$197.00
High
$324.00
Current price
$209.03
Average target
$271.94
Street summary

Consensus Target Rises Amid Divergent Valuations

The consensus price target stood at $271.94 over the past day, down slightly by $0.79 or 0.29% over seven days. However, it rose by $16.81 or 6.59% over 30 days, alongside an increase in the number of analysts from 11 to 13, indicating an overall improvement in the price outlook without a recent change in the number of participants.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+6.6%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.89
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦35 (+2)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
71%
High
Rating activity · 30d
1↑ · 2↓
Target dispersion
61%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time35 analysts rating
9
16
8
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 3.89
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-09
    Piper Sandler
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-08-27
    Raymond James
    Market Perform
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-08-27
    BMO Capital
    Market PerformOutperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    12.88x
    6.87x54.92x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    9.53x
    5.19x41.53x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    11.09x
    4.52x36.15x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    6.7%
    -54.8%10.8%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    23.8%
    -18.1%66.5%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    38.6%
    -155.3%193.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    44.0%
    12.9%79.5%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    17.3%
    -63.6%26.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    6.32
    -10.9113.66
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

First Solar develops, manufactures, and recycles solar modules primarily intended for large utility-scale projects, and generates its revenue from module sales under long-term supply contracts, alongside contractual technology adjustments such as CuRe. The industrial platform relies on integrated U.S. factories, a finishing line in South Carolina, and international production capacity in Malaysia and Vietnam; it prioritizes production allocation to U.S. factories, followed by the South Carolina line, then international facilities, with the aim of meeting domestic-content requirements and improving productivity and margins. As of June 30, 2026, the contract backlog stood at 45.1 gigawatts with a total contractual value of $13.6 billion, with deliveries extending through 2030, while approximately 41 gigawatts of the backlog includes some form of domestic-content requirements.

In Q2 fiscal year 2026, First Solar recorded net revenue of $1.06 billion, down approximately 4% year over year, despite higher module sales volume, due to lower customer contract-termination revenue compared with the corresponding period. Gross profit was approximately $605 million, and gross margin expanded to approximately 57% from about 45% in Q2 fiscal year 2025, supported by a net benefit of $89 million related to IEPA tariffs, a higher mix of modules eligible for Section 45X credits, and lower logistics costs. Net income increased 24% to $422.6 million, or $3.92 per share, while adjusted EBITDA reached approximately $644 million at a 61% margin, compared with operating expenses of $155 million that included $76 million for research and development.

For fiscal year 2025, the company generated revenue of $5.2 billion, gross profit of $2.1 billion, and net income of $1.5 billion, or $14.21 per share. In the first half of fiscal year 2026, cumulative global sales of First Solar modules exceeded 100 gigawatts, with U.S. factories operating at high utilization rates and achieving record first-half sales volume. The company also ended Q2 fiscal year 2026 with net cash of $1.7 billion, after first-half capital expenditures of $280 million focused on the South Carolina facility and technology investments.

What's Driving the Stock

  • First Solar maintained its fiscal year 2026 guidance unchanged on July 30, 2026, and projected Q3 fiscal year 2026 sales volume of between 3.9 and 4.5 gigawatts and adjusted EBITDA of between $625 million and $775 million, after adjusted EBITDA in Q2 exceeded the upper end of the previous guidance range and reached $644 million.
  • The backlog of 45.1 gigawatts and $13.6 billion through 2030 provides clear sales visibility, while the integrated U.S. manufacturing fleet is largely booked through 2028. Since the previous earnings call, the company recorded approximately 1.9 gigawatts of additional gross U.S. bookings at an average price of approximately $0.36 per watt including technology adjustments, compared with 1.1 gigawatts of bookings in India during the first half of fiscal year 2026 at an average of approximately $0.20 per watt.
  • Announced projects with Cypress Creek, Terogen, and Pattern are associated with approximately 5 gigawatts of capacity, and management said half of this volume is directly linked to Google’s needs. The Steel River Energy Center in Arkansas includes a first phase with approximately 1.6 gigawatts of solar capacity and 1.9 gigawatt-hours of storage, directly linking demand for First Solar modules to growth in hyperscale data-center requirements.
  • On August 7, 2026, the Trump administration announced 15% tariffs and minimum prices for imports of polysilicon derivatives, and analysts viewed First Solar as potentially the largest beneficiary due to improved pricing power against imports. This development is increasingly important because Chinese companies control more than 90% of the global supply of polysilicon and its derivatives, while First Solar has a domestic manufacturing base and a contract backlog that includes approximately 41 gigawatts subject to domestic-content requirements.
  • In Q2 fiscal year 2026, the company began issuing the first customer notices related to contractual CuRe adjustments and expects their contribution to backlog value and revenue to increase as deployment of the technology expands, while their effect on average selling price remains limited in fiscal year 2026. CuRe performance also exceeded management’s expectations in high-volume manufacturing in Perrysburg and field testing across multiple climates, while the Series 6-sized Perovskite pilot line is targeting operational readiness in the first half of fiscal year 2027.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The contract backlog of 45.1 gigawatts and $13.6 billion through 2030 combines volume and pricing visibility, while the fact that U.S. industrial capacity is largely committed through 2028 limits the need to pursue short-term bookings on weak terms.
  • +Q2 fiscal year 2026 demonstrated a strong ability to convert sales into profit; gross margin expanded by approximately 12 percentage points to 57%, and net income increased 24% to $422.6 million despite revenue declining by approximately 4%.
  • +U.S. trade policy supports First Solar’s competitive position, as it imposed 15% tariffs and minimum prices on imported polysilicon derivatives on August 7, 2026, while approximately 41 gigawatts of the company’s backlog includes domestic-content requirements.
  • +Liquidity gives the company the capacity to fund expansion and technology; it ended Q2 fiscal year 2026 with net cash of $1.7 billion, within its long-term range of $1.5 billion to $2.0 billion, while continuing to invest in South Carolina, CuRe, and Perovskite.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $272.73, within a range of $197 to $324, with a consensus rating of “Buy”; the average is approximately 15% below the 52-week range high of $320.95, while the highest target slightly exceeds that high. The $127 spread between the lowest and highest targets reveals significant divergence in assessments of the impact of trade policy and the sustainability of margins and bookings, and the data does not provide a valid earnings multiple that can be used as an additional valuation anchor.

BuyAnalyst target: $272.73(+30.5%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What supports First Solar’s revenue after Q2 fiscal year 2026?

As of June 30, 2026, the contract backlog stood at approximately 45.1 gigawatts with a value of $13.6 billion, with deliveries extending through 2030. Approximately 41 gigawatts of this backlog includes domestic-content requirements, aligning with the company’s U.S. manufacturing network. The integrated U.S. fleet also remained largely booked through 2028, and the company recorded approximately 1.9 gigawatts of additional U.S. bookings at an average of $0.36 per watt including technology adjustments.

How did First Solar perform in Q2 fiscal year 2026?

The company generated net revenue of $1.06 billion and gross profit of approximately $605 million in Q2 fiscal year 2026. Gross margin was approximately 57%, up about 12 percentage points year over year, while adjusted EBITDA reached $644 million at a 61% margin. Net income increased 24% to $422.6 million, and earnings per share reached $3.92, exceeding expectations by $1.11.

Why are polysilicon tariffs important for FSLR stock?

On August 7, 2026, the Trump administration announced 15% tariffs and minimum prices for imports of polysilicon derivatives, including wafers and solar modules. Analysts viewed First Solar as potentially benefiting through greater pricing power and support for domestic manufacturing, particularly with Chinese companies controlling more than 90% of the global supply of polysilicon and its derivatives. However, the size of the benefit depends on implementation details, because management warned on July 30, 2026, that exemptions or quotas could reduce the intended impact of Section 232.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

−
Q2 fiscal year 2026 revenue declined by approximately 4% year over year to $1.06 billion and fell short of market expectations by approximately $4.2 million, while news on July 30 and 31, 2026, also indicated cancellations by some customers; therefore, higher module sales volume did not translate into revenue growth.
  • −A significant part of First Solar’s economics depends on trade policy and domestic incentives; Q2 fiscal year 2026 margin included an estimated net benefit of approximately $89 million related to IEPA tariffs and a higher mix of Section 45X modules. The strength of pricing protection could diminish if Section 232 measures include exemptions or quotas, while management said the final outcome and related applications remained unresolved as of July 30, 2026.
  • −The company faces competition from Chinese manufacturers that dominate more than 90% of the supply of polysilicon and its derivatives and operate, according to management, within a different competitive environment. This means that any easing of U.S. restrictions or influx of low-cost modules could pressure First Solar’s pricing and bookings, particularly for international production.
  • −The Malaysia and Vietnam facilities incur underutilization costs of approximately $30 million per quarter, while a long-term decision regarding approximately 1.8 gigawatts of integrated international capacity remains contingent on demand economics and tariffs. Completion of the second phase of the South Carolina facility was also delayed until mid-2027, although the adjustment allows CuRe to be introduced earlier in the commercial operating cycle.
  • −Management described the commodity-cost environment as one of the most challenging, with pressure from steel, copper, electricity, and fuel, while ground transportation costs increased due to capacity constraints and diesel volatility. In some cases, the cost of transporting modules from Perrysburg to the U.S. West Coast became comparable to the cost of shipping them from Asia, which could limit the sustainability of margin improvement.
  • −Insider activity during the three months ended August 17, 2026, recorded net sales of $9.7 million through 38 sales and no purchases. This remains a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the data provides no reason establishing that they reflect a change in the operating outlook.
  • How important are CuRe and Perovskite to First Solar’s growth?

    Management said CuRe performance exceeded its expectations in high-volume manufacturing in Perrysburg and in field data across multiple climates. In Q2 fiscal year 2026, the company began sending the first customer notices related to CuRe adjustments, but it expects a limited effect on average selling price in fiscal year 2026 because of contractual notice periods. The Series 6-sized Perovskite pilot line is targeting operational readiness in the first half of fiscal year 2027, while research and development expenses reached $76 million in Q2 fiscal year 2026.

    How is data-center demand related to First Solar’s business?

    On July 30, 2026, management cited three announced projects with Cypress Creek, Terogen, and Pattern with combined capacity of approximately 5 gigawatts, half of which is directly linked to Google’s needs. The first phase of the Steel River Energy Center in Arkansas includes approximately 1.6 gigawatts of solar capacity and 1.9 gigawatt-hours of storage. Management believes data-center projects prioritize delivery certainty and reliability, two factors First Solar relies on in marketing its modules and long-term contracts.

    What are the main operational risks facing First Solar in fiscal year 2026?

    Q2 fiscal year 2026 revenue declined by approximately 4% to $1.06 billion despite higher module volume, due to lower contract-termination revenue compared with the corresponding period. The Southeast Asia facilities incur approximately $30 million per quarter in underutilization costs, while the decision regarding approximately 1.8 gigawatts of integrated capacity depends on trade-policy outcomes and demand. The company also faces higher commodity and ground transportation costs, while operating cash outflows reached $360 million and capital expenditures totaled $280 million during the first half of fiscal year 2026.