| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 34 | 16.5x | 17.8x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 86 | 12.8% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 56 | 8.2% | 4.5% | Around median | |
Safety | 74 | 1.1x | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 68 | — | 2.12% | Top tier | |
Momentum | 46 | 16.1% | 2.9% | Around median | |
Sentiment | 34 | 6 | 3 | Bottom tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Freshpet develops, manufactures, and markets fresh and frozen pet food, relying on its owned manufacturing network and a broad portfolio of formats, sizes, and price points. Its products reach more than 30 thousand stores, and it also uses its in-store refrigerators as fulfillment points for digital orders; digital orders represented 16.7% of the business in Q2 FY2026, and about 78% of their volume was fulfilled through the refrigerator network. The company targets the higher-spending households it calls MVPs, each of which spends five times the average household and collectively accounts for 71% of sales.
In Q2 FY2026, net sales increased 15.5% year over year to $305.6 million, driven by a 15.7% increase in volume versus a negative 0.2% impact from price and mix. Net income reached $19.5 million versus $16.4 million, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization rose about 18% to $52.2 million, with the margin improving to 17.1% from 16.8%. Adjusted gross margin also increased 170 basis points to 48.6%, benefiting from operating leverage from higher sales and lower input costs, despite quality costs associated with commissioning the new technology.
Growth was broad-based across channels in Q2 FY2026; digital orders increased 41%, total distribution points rose 13%, while measured sales at U.S. pet retailers including Costco grew 12.9%. Operating cash flow reached $44.4 million, up 31%, and free cash flow reached $14.7 million after capital expenditures of $29.7 million, compared with free cash flow of $0.5 million a year earlier. The company ended the quarter with $350.8 million in cash and had repurchased 1.6 million shares for $86.5 million through the end of July 2026 under a $150 million authorization.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The average analyst price target is $71, within a range of $66 to $75, with a consensus Buy rating; the average is about 17% below the 52-week range high of $86, while the highest target is about 13% below that high. In contrast, the enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization multiple of 22.8 times and free cash flow yield of 1.9% in the August 5, 2026 analysis indicate that the market assigns the company a valuation that requires continued volume growth and margin expansion, which explains the stock's sensitivity to valuation concerns despite the raised guidance.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Net sales increased 15.5% to $305.6 million, with the increase coming from 15.7% volume growth versus a negative 0.2% impact from price and mix. Digital orders grew 41% and came to represent 16.7% of the business, while distribution points increased 13%. Direct-to-consumer sales, pure-play e-commerce, and expansion at club retailers and rural stores contributed to making growth broader than traditionally measured retail channels.
Adjusted gross margin increased to 48.6% from 46.9%, driven by leverage from higher sales and lower input costs. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased about 18% to $52.2 million, and its margin reached 17.1% versus 16.8%. Net income also increased to $19.5 million from $16.4 million, with a contribution from favorable adjustments related to the sale of the investment in Ollie and lower nonrecurring expenses.
Freshpet operates three lines using the new technology, two in Bethlehem and one in Ennis, and has used them to launch HomeStyle Creations, Beef, and Healthy Mixers. The company targets a contribution of approximately 25 basis points to gross margin during FY2026 and more than 100 basis points company-wide once the existing lines are fully optimized. However, the initial commissioning resulted in quality costs associated with disposing of some products, and management did not specify an exact date during FY2027 for reaching the full annual benefit.
The company expects FY2026 sales growth of between 10% and 12%, equivalent to revenue between $1.21 and $1.23 billion, after the previous growth range was 8% to 11%. It raised its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization range to $210–220 million and also expects adjusted gross margin to improve by 100–150 basis points. For FY2027, it targets an adjusted gross margin of at least 49% and an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin between 20% and 22%.
Household penetration increased 5% over the 52 weeks through Q2 FY2026, while the household purchasing rate increased 7%, bringing the combined impact to 13%. The low end of FY2026 guidance assumes household penetration remains approximately stable sequentially, with greater reliance on increasing the purchasing rate. The company targets higher-value MVP households, which spend five times the average household and account for 71% of sales, but this concentration also increases the sensitivity of results to any weakness in their spending.
Risks include consumer and inflationary pressures, slowing household penetration, and increasing competition in fresh, frozen, and dried food. Logistics increased to 6.9% of sales from 5.7%, and the company added $8 million to its FY2026 cost estimates due to fuel and tight trucking capacity. The enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization multiple of 22.8 times and free cash flow yield of 1.9% in the August 5, 2026 analysis also leave limited room for operational errors.
