EL7.AI
Strategy BuilderCOT DataAdvanced NewsResearchNewEarnings CalendarEconomic Calendar
We use cookiesPrivacy Policy
EL7.AIEL7.AI

AI Financial Intelligence
Professional analysis of central bank decisions

© 2026 EL7.AI. All rights reserved.

Markets

  • News
  • Forex
  • Stocks
  • Crypto
  • Gold
  • Commodities
  • Indices
  • ETFs

Analysis

  • Fed
  • ECB
  • BLS
  • COT
  • Economic Calendar

Learn

  • Service Guide
  • Oil

Company

  • About
  • Contact
  • Data Methodology
  • AI Disclosure
  • Pricing
  • Enterprise
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Security
  • WhatsApp
Status data is currently unavailable

The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Home
Stocks
Frontline Ltd.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall98
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 7/9Better than 98% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
83
7.3x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
74
52.2%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
81
23.1%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
75
1.1x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
78
1.89%▼2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
99
96.8%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
42
4▲3Around median
FRO

FRO Frontline Plc

Frontline Plc · NYSE
Market Closed
49.21
▲ ⁦+1.67%⁩ (+0.81)
Market Cap$11.0B
Beta0.05
52w Low52w High
20.3149.56
Last Week
⁦+11.03%⁩
Last Month
⁦+23.83%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+41.94%⁩
Last Year
⁦+139.81%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$49
Analyst target · 4 analysts
$30
⁦-39%⁩
See it clearly overvalued
Range ⁦$12–$42⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$40
⁦-18%⁩
Sees it slightly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$30–$40⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

Compare in the screener
Premium content

Get Your Premium Account Now

  • Stock Deep Analysis
  • The Advanced News Platform
Recommended
Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 4 analysts setting price target
$29.10
⁦-40.9%⁩
Current Price $49.21·Median $30.00
Low
$12.49
High
$42.00
Current price
$49.21
Average target
$29.10
Street summary

A clear decline in FRO price targets amid widening divergence

Bearish tilt

The consensus price target remained unchanged over the last 1 and 7 days at 29.1, but declined over the last 30 days from 42 to 29.1, a decrease of 12.9 or 30.71%. The number of analysts in the sample increased from 3 to 4, but divergence remains high between a low target of 12.49 and a high target of 42, while the current price is 48.4, above the highest published target. This makes the overall outlook more bearish, with some uncertainty remaining due to the widening range.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-30.7%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.50
Buy
Analyst coverage
4
Buy conviction
50%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 2↓
Target dispersion
60%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time4 analysts rating
2
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 3.50
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-08-31
    Nordea
    Hold
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-08-21
    Danske Bank
    HoldSell
  • = Reiterate2026-06-24
    BTIG
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    7.32x
    5.69x45.54x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    10.73x
    4.57x36.58x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    7.00x
    3.43x27.47x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    6.2%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    52.2%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Exceptional
  • EPS Growth YoY
    528.0%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    51.5%
    8.6%54.6%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    23.1%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.13x
    0.55x4.37x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    1.9%
    0.1%4.8%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    13.8%
    6.6%80.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-28 data

Company Overview

Frontline Plc operates an oil transportation fleet comprising VLCC, Suezmax, and Aframax/LR2 tankers, and generates revenue from vessel operating days and time charter equivalent TCE rates. Following the delivery of the remaining new VLCC tankers and the sale of two tankers in the same class, the fleet will consist of 40 VLCC tankers, 19 Suezmax tankers, and 18 Aframax/LR2 tankers, with an average age of 6.6 years; all vessels will be ECO-design, with 69% fitted with exhaust gas cleaning systems.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, Frontline recorded the highest quarterly earnings in its history: net income reached $659 million, or $2.96 per share, while adjusted profit reached $580 million, or $2.61 per share. Adjusted profit increased by $235 million from the previous quarter, driven primarily by higher TCE earnings, while vessel operating expenses decreased by $4.3 million, administrative expenses by $2.4 million, adjusted interest expense by $4.8 million, and depreciation by $4.7 million.

The fleet mix in Q2 fiscal 2026 reflected strength across all classes, with VLCC tankers achieving a TCE rate of $153 thousand per day, compared with $111 thousand for Suezmax tankers and $92.4 thousand for LR2/Aframax tankers. The Q2 data does not include a revenue figure or gross margin, but the annual comparison shows that fiscal 2025 revenue totaled $2 billion and net income was $379.1 million, down from $2.2 billion and $495.6 million in fiscal 2024.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The sharp rise in freight rates is the direct earnings driver; in Q2 fiscal 2026, VLCC, Suezmax, and LR2/Aframax tankers achieved daily TCE rates of $153 thousand, $111 thousand, and $92.4 thousand, respectively.
  • Frontline benefits from oil trade bottlenecks; management stated on August 28, 2026 that crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz had fallen by 82%, and idle days per VLCC tanker had increased by 23%, alongside longer voyage distances and increased ship-to-ship STS transfers, tightening the effective supply of vessels.
  • The VLCC-heavy fleet provides significant exposure to market strength and, following deliveries and sales, will include 40 VLCC tankers out of 77 vessels. It also comprises approximately 27.8 thousand annual revenue days, and management estimated cash generation potential at the fleet and spot market rates recorded on August 28, 2026 at approximately $2.3 billion, or $10.35 per share.
  • The company reduced its financing cost through amendments, refinancing, asset sales, and financing for new vessels; the weighted average interest margin is expected to decline from 178 basis points at the end of Q1 fiscal 2026 to 126 basis points upon completion of the process in Q3 fiscal 2026.
  • According to management on August 28, 2026, demand for longer-term VLCC contracts has deepened, with the possibility of securing three-year contracts at levels approaching $80 thousand per day, depending on the vessel delivery location. Frontline had increased its VLCC revenue coverage to slightly more than 30% while awaiting delivery of the remaining new vessels.
  • Vessel sales supported shareholder returns and capital management; Frontline sold two VLCC tankers for approximately $270 million after estimating that retaining them would require earning nearly $70 thousand per day until they reached approximately 20 years of age to justify rejecting the offer, and then distributed the sale proceeds to shareholders.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Q2 fiscal 2026 set a company record with net income of $659 million and adjusted profit of $580 million, with adjusted profit increasing by $235 million from the previous quarter due to higher TCE rates.
  • +Following deliveries and sales, the fleet has a low average age of 6.6 years and consists entirely of ECO-design vessels, while 69% is fitted with exhaust gas cleaning systems; this enhances its operating efficiency in a market affected by fuel costs and vessel ages.
  • +The spread between TCE rates and cash breakeven rates is wide according to August 28, 2026 data; the VLCC rate of $153 thousand per day compares with an expected breakeven of $23.8 thousand, the Suezmax rate of $111 thousand compares with a breakeven of $25.7 thousand, and the LR2/Aframax rate of $92.4 thousand compares with a breakeven of $22.2 thousand.
  • +Liquidity and the debt structure support the company's flexibility; it disclosed strong liquidity, including $1.2 billion of cash and cash equivalents according to the unit stated in the call, in addition to $91 million of undrawn revolving facility capacity, with no material debt maturities until 2030.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus on FRO is neutral, with an average price target of $29.1 and targets ranging from $12.49 to $42; this wide range reflects significant disagreement over how long exceptional tanker earnings will persist. The average target is below the upper end of the 52-week range of $45.29, while the data does not provide a valid price-to-earnings multiple, so the stock's valuation rests primarily on the sustainability of TCE rates and cash flows versus the risk of orderbook growth and the decline in annual earnings in fiscal 2025.

HoldAnalyst target: $29.1(-40.9%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

Why were Frontline's earnings in Q2 fiscal 2026 record-breaking?

Frontline recorded net income of $659 million, or $2.96 per share, and adjusted profit of $580 million, or $2.61 per share. Adjusted profit increased by $235 million from the previous quarter, which the company attributed primarily to higher TCE earnings. Daily TCE rates reached $153 thousand for VLCC tankers, $111 thousand for Suezmax tankers, and $92.4 thousand for LR2/Aframax tankers. A $4.3 million decrease in vessel operating expenses and a $4.8 million decrease in adjusted interest expense from the previous quarter also helped.

What is the size and composition of Frontline's fleet following the renewal program?

Following the delivery of the remaining new VLCC tankers and the sale of two tankers in the same class, the fleet will consist of 40 VLCC tankers, 19 Suezmax tankers, and 18 Aframax/LR2 tankers. The fleet's average age will be 6.6 years, and all vessels will be ECO-design. 69% of the vessels will be fitted with exhaust gas cleaning systems. The presence of 40 VLCC tankers gives the company concentrated exposure to the long-haul crude transportation market.

How do disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea affect Frontline?
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Earnings depend heavily on a highly volatile tanker market and spot TCE rates; management's analysis shows that a 30% decline in rates reduces cash generation potential from $2.3 billion to $1.5 billion, or from $10.35 to $6.88 per share.
  • −The bottlenecks that raised rates may not be sustainable; management linked strong demand to lower flows through the Strait of Hormuz, increased STS transfers, longer routes, and heavy inventory withdrawals in the United States and China, and acknowledged on August 28, 2026 that it could not determine how long inventory withdrawals would continue.
  • −Growth in the tanker orderbook poses a risk to the future supply balance; the VLCC orderbook reached approximately 33.5% of the existing fleet and approaches 40% when compared with the effective commercial fleet, while the ratio across the vessel classes in which Frontline operates reached the mid-30% range.
  • −The annual financial statements show a clear slowdown before the quarterly surge; fiscal 2025 revenue declined to $2 billion from $2.2 billion in fiscal 2024, and net income fell to $379.1 million from $495.6 million, after having been $656.4 million in fiscal 2023.
  • −Remaining new vessel commitments as of June 30, 2026 total approximately $601 million and relate to nine new vessels, despite secured financing of up to $737 million. Breakeven estimates for the following twelve months also include drydocking 7 VLCC tankers, 7 Suezmax tankers, and 8 LR2 tankers, raising the fleet's average daily breakeven by approximately $1.6 thousand compared with excluding drydocking costs.
  • −The neutral analyst consensus and the wide range of targets from $12.49 to $42 reflect a high degree of uncertainty regarding the sustainability of the earnings cycle, while the average target of $29.1 is well below the 52-week range high of $45.29. This dispersion makes the valuation sensitive to changes in tanker rates and expectations regarding inventories and the orderbook.

Management said on August 28, 2026 that crude exports from within the Strait of Hormuz had fallen by 82%, alongside heightened risks in the Gulf of Oman, the Red Sea, and the Black Sea. Longer shipping routes and multiple STS transfers increased idle days per VLCC tanker by 23%, despite lower volumes of some transported oil. This tightening of the effective vessel supply supported the freight rates received by Frontline. However, the continuation of the effect depends on the duration of the disruptions and the ability of the United States, China, and other countries to continue drawing down inventories.

What are the cash breakeven rates for Frontline's fleet?

On August 28, 2026, the company estimated average cash breakeven rates for the following twelve months at approximately $23.8 thousand per day for VLCC tankers, $25.7 thousand for Suezmax tankers, and $22.2 thousand for LR2 tankers. The fleet average is approximately $23.9 thousand per day including drydocking costs and declines to $22.3 thousand excluding them. The plan includes drydocking 7 VLCC tankers, 7 Suezmax tankers, and 8 LR2 tankers during that period. The fleet's average daily operating expense, excluding drydocking, was $8.7 thousand in Q2 fiscal 2026.

What risk does the oil tanker orderbook pose to FRO?

The VLCC orderbook reached approximately 33.5% of the existing fleet according to the August 28, 2026 presentation. Management believes the ratio approaches 40% when excluding approximately 166 to 167 vessels that do not participate in the effective commercial market. Across the vessel classes in which Frontline operates, the orderbook-to-fleet ratio approaches the mid-30% range. Meanwhile, 578 vessels will move toward 20 years of age within five years, but management explained that assuming no scrapping leaves the risk of excess supply in place.

How does Frontline manage liquidity, debt, and distributions?

As of June 30, 2026, Frontline disclosed strong liquidity, including $1.2 billion of cash and cash equivalents according to the unit stated in the call, in addition to $91 million of undrawn revolving facility capacity. There are no material debt maturities until 2030, and the weighted average interest margin is expected to decline from 178 to 126 basis points upon completion of the Q3 fiscal 2026 measures. Commitments for nine new vessels total $601 million, compared with secured new financing of up to $737 million. Management also confirmed that its policy focuses on distributing funds to shareholders and distributed the approximately $270 million proceeds from the sale of two VLCC tankers instead of reinvesting them at prevailing asset prices.