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Stocks
Flowco Holdings Inc.
FLOC

FLOC Flowco Holdings Inc.

Flowco Holdings Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
20.71
▲ ⁦+2.07%⁩ (+0.42)
Market Cap$1.9B
Beta0.89
52w Low52w High
14.0328.26
Last Week
⁦-4.56%⁩
Last Month
⁦-0.05%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-14.49%⁩
Last Year
⁦+27.60%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall83
Excellent — top fifth of the marketContrarianF 7/8Better than 83% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
89
14.2x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
43
100.0%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
90
28.9%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
82
1.0x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
13
0.39%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
46
27.6%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
72
5▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Current price$21
Analyst target · 6 analysts
$32
⁦+55%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$31–$33⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$45
⁦+120%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦8.3⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$32–$45⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target
$32.00
⁦+54.5%⁩
Current Price $20.71·Median $32.00
Low
$31.00
High
$33.00
Current price
$20.71
Average target
$32.00
Street summary

Stable Targets Amid a Broader Analyst Base

Price targets have not changed over the last 30 days; the consensus and median remained at 32, while the range was between 31 and 33 among 6 analysts. Compared with the current price of 20.29, the price targets reflect a potential upward trend, but the absence of upward or downward revisions indicates a stable outlook rather than a newly improved one. The number of analysts included in the September 9 snapshot also increased from 2 to 6 without any change in the consensus, making coverage broader while the estimate remains stable.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.22
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦9 (+4)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
89%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
10%
Analyst ratings over time9 analysts rating
3
5
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.22 → 4.22
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-03
    Citigroup
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-07-14
    Piper Sandler
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-05-07
    Jefferies
    Buy· $33.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    14.18x
    3.56x28.47x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    12.35x
    3.36x26.89x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    6.90x
    2.12x16.98x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    32.8%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Exceptional
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    100.0%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Exceptional
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -14.1%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    62.7%
    7.8%72.1%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    28.9%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.05x
    0.40x3.19x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.4%
    0.4%10.1%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    5.5%
    11.9%109.0%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-11 data

Company Overview

Flowco Holdings Inc. provides a platform for optimizing oil and gas production in North America through artificial lift solutions, surface equipment, vapor recovery technologies, and downhole components. The company generates revenue from equipment rentals and sales and well lifecycle services; in Q2 fiscal 2026, rental revenue represented 56% of total revenue, supporting revenue visibility, while less asset-intensive sales activities provide additional returns and cash conversion. The platform includes more than 5,000 compressors, along with Valiant's ESP solutions and the Optimus monitoring and optimization software.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, revenue increased 13% sequentially to $236 million, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization rose approximately 10% to $93.9 million, representing a margin of approximately 40%. The Production Solutions segment generated revenue of $171 million, up 22%, and segment adjusted earnings of $71 million, up approximately 16%; however, it recorded a 229-basis-point margin decline due to a shift in revenue mix and higher operating and maintenance, fuel, and lubricant costs. The Natural Gas Technology segment recorded a sequential decline of 6% in both revenue and segment adjusted earnings, to approximately $65 million and $28 million, respectively, due to lower Vapor Recovery system sales.

The business generated approximately $50 million in free cash flow in Q2 fiscal 2026, despite investing $45 million to expand the Surface Equipment and Vapor Recovery rental fleets and support Valiant's growth, and the annualized adjusted return on capital employed was approximately 18%. The latest available EDGAR data for Q1 fiscal 2026 showed revenue of $209.5 million, gross profit of $114.6 million, net income of $7.4 million, and earnings per share of $0.23, while the trailing-twelve-month figures ending in fiscal 2026 were revenue of $1.1 billion and net income of $42.7 million.

What's Driving the Stock

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Valiant made a full-quarter contribution in Q2 fiscal 2026, and its performance exceeded management's expectations, while integration work is now largely complete. Flowco is working to expand Valiant's historical customer base of approximately 30 to 35 customers through its relationships with more than 300 customers, and it has also begun using its in-house cable and capillary tubing installation capabilities within Valiant's ESP operations.
  • Production Solutions revenue increased 22% sequentially to $171 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, supported by Downhole Components and Valiant's contribution. Conversely, management expects Downhole Components sales to remain variable between months and quarters, which is a factor in reaching the high or low end of the following quarter's guidance.
  • Management expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of between $92 million and $98 million in Q3 fiscal 2026, compared with $93.9 million in Q2 fiscal 2026. It expects the Surface Equipment business to be approximately flat sequentially, with limited improvement in Natural Gas Technology supported by the NGS packaging business.
  • Recurring rental revenue supports Flowco's ability to convert earnings into cash; it represented 56% of Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue, and free cash flow was $50 million. Leverage also declined to below 1.0x, and available capacity under the credit facility was $446 million on August 7, 2026, after outstanding borrowings of $274 million and a borrowing base of $722 million.
  • Flowco uses Optimus data to remotely monitor ESP systems and identify operating adjustments or the need for intervention, and it is working to expand its use toward predictive analytics and determining the timing of transitions from ESP to gas lift and then plunger lift. At the same time, management said that adoption of autonomous operations using artificial intelligence remains early in the U.S. onshore market and that customers vary between acceptance and caution.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Flowco's model combines rental revenue that represented 56% of Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue with less asset-intensive sales businesses, helping the company generate $50 million in free cash flow while maintaining an adjusted earnings margin of approximately 40%.
    • +The Valiant acquisition expands Flowco's range of solutions to include ESP systems, and the business performed above management's expectations, with the integration process now largely complete. The gap between Valiant's historical customer base of 30 to 35 customers and Flowco's customer base of more than 300 provides a defined cross-selling opportunity.
    • +The balance sheet enhances operating flexibility, as leverage declined to below 1.0x and available liquidity under the credit facility was $446 million on August 7, 2026. This enables the funding of rental fleet expansion, disciplined acquisitions, and capital returns without heavy reliance on debt.
    • +The fiscal 2026 expected earnings multiple cited in the August 12, 2026 news is approximately 6.5x, compared with the 8x to 10x range for peers mentioned in the same source. This discount coincides with sequential growth of 13% in revenue and approximately 10% in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.

    ▼ Selling Case5 pts

    • −The Production Solutions segment's adjusted earnings margin declined by 229 basis points in Q2 fiscal 2026 due to a mix shift toward Downhole Components and higher operating and maintenance, fuel, and lubricant costs. Management confirmed that these pressures will continue in Q3 fiscal 2026 and that the cost under the primary lubricant contract is set 90 days in advance, with limited ability to pass the increase on to customers.
    • −Natural Gas Technology revenue and adjusted earnings declined 6% sequentially to approximately $65 million and $28 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, after the impact of lower Vapor Recovery system sales outweighed growth in rental activity. Management describes the sales trajectory as variable between quarters, but the decline remains a real pressure on the current growth mix.
    • −Total revenue grew 13% sequentially in Q2 fiscal 2026, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization grew only approximately 10%, reflecting slower earnings growth than revenue growth. Q3 fiscal 2026 guidance of $92 million to $98 million also ranges from a slight decline to limited growth compared with the prior quarter's result of $93.9 million.
    • −Part of the growth case depends on converting Valiant's early performance into sustained expansion, but management did not provide an updated figure for Valiant's annual contribution during the August 11, 2026 call, despite saying that the prior guidance of approximately $52 million in adjusted earnings and a 40% margin was achievable. The absence of a quantitative update makes the impact of cross-selling and international expansion less measurable at this stage.
    • −The average analyst target of $32 is approximately 13% above the 52-week range high of $28.26, while targets are concentrated in a narrow range between $31 and $33. The consensus therefore assumes a revaluation beyond the previous annual high, which may not materialize if cost pressures persist or adjusted earnings guidance remains approximately flat.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $32 and a narrow range between $31 and $33, and the average is approximately 13% above the 52-week range high of $28.26. The August 12, 2026 source indicates a multiple of 6.5x expected fiscal 2026 earnings, versus 8x to 10x for the peers mentioned in it, reflecting a relative discount. However, exceeding the 52-week range high to reach the target valuation requires continued strong cash flow and Valiant's success in offsetting margin pressures and the slower growth of adjusted earnings compared with revenue.

    BuyAnalyst target: $32(+54.5%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    How did Flowco perform in Q2 fiscal 2026?

    Revenue was $236 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, up 13% sequentially. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization were $93.9 million, up approximately 10%, with a margin of approximately 40%. The company also generated $50 million in free cash flow after capital expenditures of $45 million.

    How important is Valiant to FLOC stock's growth?

    The Valiant acquisition added ESP capabilities to Flowco's platform, and the business performed above management's expectations in Q2 fiscal 2026. Valiant historically had a customer base of approximately 30 to 35 customers, compared with more than 300 customers for Flowco, defining a clear cross-selling opportunity. Management said on August 11, 2026 that integration work was largely complete and that the prior guidance of approximately $52 million in adjusted earnings at a margin of approximately 40% was achievable.

    What is Flowco's guidance for Q3 fiscal 2026?

    Flowco expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of between $92 million and $98 million in Q3 fiscal 2026. This compares with a result of $93.9 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, indicating a range extending from a slight decline to limited growth. Management expects Surface Equipment to be approximately stable and Natural Gas Technology to improve modestly with support from NGS, while fuel, lubricant, and operating and maintenance cost pressures continue.

    What are the main risks to Flowco's margins?

    The Production Solutions segment's adjusted earnings margin declined by 229 basis points in Q2 fiscal 2026. The pressure came from a revenue mix shift toward Downhole Components and from higher operating and maintenance, fuel, and lubricant costs. Flowco operates a fleet of more than 5,000 compressors and has limited ability to pass higher lubricant costs on to customers, while pricing under its primary contract was set 90 days in advance.

    How does Flowco use artificial intelligence in its products?

    Valiant's Optimus platform collects real-time operating data from ESP systems and enables remote monitoring to adjust parameters or anticipate the need for intervention. Flowco is working to apply predictive analytics to determine when wells will fail or transition from ESP to gas lift and then plunger lift. Management explained on August 11, 2026 that fully autonomous operations remain at an early stage in the U.S. onshore market because some customers do not want to remove the human element from operating thousands of wells.

    How does Flowco return capital to shareholders?

    The board declared an estimated quarterly distribution of $0.09 per share on July 30, 2026, then approved a one-time special distribution of $0.14 per Class A share. Management linked the special distribution to cash accumulation resulting from the Up-C structure and the difference between the historical tax distribution rate of 40% and Flowco's tax rate of 22%. Management does not expect similar special distributions in the future, while retaining the option of quarterly distributions and opportunistic share repurchases.