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Stocks
Comfort Systems USA, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall89
Excellent — top fifth of the marketHigh FlyerF 7/9SafeBetter than 89% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
22
41.6x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
96
46.1%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
87
49.2%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
87
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
39
0.15%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
73
134.0%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
40
7▲3Around median
FIX

FIX Comfort Systems USA, Inc.

Comfort Systems USA, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
1,690.82
▲ ⁦+6.29%⁩ (+100.01)
Market Cap$59.5B
Beta1.70
52w Low52w High
721.872,073.99
Last Week
⁦+8.38%⁩
Last Month
⁦+0.16%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-1.67%⁩
Last Year
⁦+138.30%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$1691
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$2105
⁦+24%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$1910–$2200⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$1037
⁦-39%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦12.0⁩% discount · ⁦10⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$1037–$2105⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$2080.00
⁦+23.0%⁩
Current Price $1690.82·Median $2105.00
Low
$1910.00
High
$2200.00
Current price
$1690.82
Average target
$2080.00
Street summary

Analysis of Price Target Revisions for Comfort Systems USA (FIX)

Bullish tilt

Comfort Systems USA (FIX) stock has seen a tangible improvement in analyst expectations over the past 30 days, with the average price target rising by 2.11% to reach $2057.86. This increase coincides with the number of analysts covering the stock rising from 2 to 3, reflecting growing institutional interest. Notably, the minimum price target of $1800 remains above the current trading price ($1688.05), indicating a collective conviction in a positive price gap.

As of 2026-08-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+1.1%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.90
Buy
Analyst coverage
10
Buy conviction
90%
High
Target dispersion
17%
Analyst ratings over time10 analysts rating
9
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.75 → 3.90
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-27
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-27
    KeyBanc
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-09
    Goldman Sachs
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    41.57x
    5.69x45.54x
    Above average
  • Forward P/E
    29.82x
    4.57x36.58x
    Expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    29.02x
    3.43x27.47x
    Expensive
  • FCF Yield
    3.6%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    46.1%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Exceptional
  • EPS Growth YoY
    108.9%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    25.7%
    8.6%54.6%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    49.2%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    0.2%
    0.1%4.8%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    6.4%
    6.6%80.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    9.51
    -5.667.97
    Exceptional
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-24 data

Company Overview

Comfort Systems USA provides specialized mechanical and electrical services, including heating, ventilation, and air conditioning HVAC systems, new building construction, Modular projects, and services for existing facilities. During the first half of fiscal 2026, industrial customers accounted for 75% of revenue, with the technology sector alone representing 58%, versus 40% a year earlier, while institutional markets represented 17% and the commercial sector 8%. Construction work generated 90% of revenue, split between 75% from new buildings and 15% from existing buildings, while services contributed 10%, with service revenue growing 7%.

In Q2 of fiscal 2026, quarterly revenue exceeded $3 billion for the first time, reaching $3.3 billion, an increase of $1.1 billion year over year, with electrical segment revenue growing 81% and mechanical segment revenue growing 40%. Gross profit reached $844.2 million, and gross margin rose to 25.9% from 23.5%, while operating income climbed 86% to $558 million and operating margin expanded to 17.1% from 13.8%. Net income was $441.6 million, or $12.53 per share, compared with $231 million and $6.53 per share a year earlier.

Broader EDGAR results reflect continued expansion; fiscal 2025 revenue reached approximately $9.1 billion and net income reached $1 billion, while the latest twelve-month period in fiscal 2026 recorded revenue of $11.2 billion, gross profit of $2.9 billion, and net income of $1.4 billion. The technology and Modular project mix is driving this growth, with Modular work accounting for approximately 17% of revenue since the beginning of fiscal 2026 and the space allocated to it exceeding 3.5 million square feet. The closing of the Hunt Electric transaction on May 1, 2026 also added an electrical business in Utah that management expects to contribute approximately $250 million in annual revenue.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Backlog at the end of Q2 of fiscal 2026 reached a record $14.1 billion, an annual increase of $5.9 billion, or 73%, including $5.6 billion from same-store operations, and it also increased sequentially by $1.6 billion, or 13%.
  • The company entered Q3 of fiscal 2026 with same-store backlog 69% above its level a year earlier, and management expects same-store revenue growth for fiscal 2026 to finish in the mid-to-high 30% range after growing 47% during the first six months.
  • The Modular business added more than $500 million to net backlog during Q2 of fiscal 2026, supported by volume commitments from two hyperscale computing operators. The company aims to exceed 4 million square feet of production capacity by the end of fiscal 2026 and reach approximately 5 million square feet by late summer 2027.
  • Profitability improved alongside growth; mechanical segment margin rose to 25.6% from 22.9%, and electrical segment margin climbed to 26.4% from 25.3% in Q2 of fiscal 2026. Selling, general, and administrative expenses also declined to 8.8% of revenue from 9.7% a year earlier, helping quarterly EBITDA reach $600 million, an increase of 80%.
  • The business generated free cash flow of $999 million in Q2 of fiscal 2026, and the company ended the period with net cash exceeding $1.8 billion despite funding Hunt Electric and capital investments. The company also raised its quarterly cash dividend by $0.10 to $0.90 per share.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The record $14.1 billion backlog provides strong revenue visibility, particularly because $5.6 billion of the annual increase came from same-store operations rather than acquisitions.
  • +Growth combines scale with improved operating quality; quarterly revenue increased by approximately $1.1 billion, while gross margin expanded by 240 basis points and operating margin by 330 basis points in Q2 of fiscal 2026.
  • +The company's position in technology and Modular projects provides direct exposure to data center demand, with additional Modular bookings exceeding $500 million and multiyear volume commitments supporting the announced capacity expansion.
  • +Free cash flow of $999 million and net cash exceeding $1.8 billion provide the capacity to fund factory expansion, acquisitions, and dividends, while Hunt Electric remains an additional expected source of approximately $250 million in annual revenue.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −

Valuation

The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $2080, within a target range extending from $1910 to $2200. The average is slightly above the top of the 52-week range of $2073.99, while the bottom of the range is $670.19, a wide spread that reflects the strength of the revaluation associated with technology and Modular growth and improved margins, but also reveals high sensitivity to any slowdown in these drivers. The data does not include a valid comparable P/E ratio, so the risk assessment here is based on the target range and annual price range rather than an earnings multiple.

BuyAnalyst target: $2,080(+23.0%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What operationally drove FIX stock growth in Q2 of fiscal 2026?

Comfort Systems USA revenue reached approximately $3.3 billion, an increase of $1.1 billion, with the electrical segment growing 81% and the mechanical segment growing 40%. Earnings per share rose 92% to $12.53, while net income reached $441.6 million. The momentum came primarily from technology sector demand, which accounted for 58% of revenue in the first half of fiscal 2026, and from the record backlog of $14.1 billion.

How important is the Modular business to Comfort Systems USA?

The Modular business accounted for approximately 17% of revenue since the beginning of fiscal 2026 and added more than $500 million to net backlog during Q2. The company has more than 3.5 million square feet of space allocated to the business and is targeting more than 4 million square feet by the end of fiscal 2026 and approximately 5 million by late summer 2027. The current expansion is predominantly tied to existing customers and volume commitments from two hyperscale computing operators, while the company is testing small pilot contracts with frontier labs and colocation providers.

Did FIX margins improve, or did growth come only from higher revenue?

Margins improved clearly in Q2 of fiscal 2026, as gross margin rose to 25.9% from 23.5% a year earlier. Operating margin climbed to 17.1% from 13.8%, while EBITDA rose to $600 million from $334 million. Mechanical segment margin also improved to 25.6% and electrical segment margin to 26.4%, but project estimate adjustments had an approximately 7.7% positive impact on quarterly revenue.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

The revenue mix has become more concentrated in technology; the sector accounted for 58% of revenue in the first half of fiscal 2026 versus 40% a year earlier, while the current Modular expansion is predominantly allocated to existing customers and tied to commitments from two hyperscale computing operators, increasing growth sensitivity to the spending decisions of a limited group of customers.
  • −Management expects same-store revenue growth to slow from 47% in the first six months of fiscal 2026 to the mid-to-high 30% range for the full year and explained that comparisons will become more difficult, particularly in Q4 of fiscal 2026; therefore, sustaining the current quarterly growth rate of 44% will be difficult.
  • −Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue included an approximately 7.7% positive impact from project estimate adjustments, and management said estimate gains were larger than usual. With a growing number of projects valued above $40 million or $100 million, results may become more sensitive to the timing of profit recognition and changes in cost and execution estimates.
  • −Other companies are building similar Modular products, even though management says customers are adding them to expand supply rather than replace Comfort Systems USA. Expanding competition means maintaining an advantage in execution, quality, and production capacity will remain necessary to protect margins and customer relationships.
  • −Data center projects face risks related to permits, local restrictions, and power availability; the call discussed proposals to halt data center construction in New York and local opposition to projects. Management believes projects may move to other locations, but relocation or delays could change the timing of backlog execution, particularly in traditional construction.
  • −The 52-week range extends from $670.19 to $2073.99, while the average analyst target is $2080, only slightly above the top of the range, with a high target of $2200 and a low target of $1910. The proximity of the average target to the top of the range indicates that achieving analyst valuations depends on continued data center growth and margin expansion, making any slowdown in bookings or execution a source of revaluation risk.
  • What did the Hunt Electric acquisition add to Comfort Systems USA?

    Comfort Systems USA closed the Hunt Electric transaction on May 1, 2026, and management described it as a prominent Utah-based electrical company. Management expects Hunt Electric to add approximately $250 million in annual revenue. Hunt Electric has already begun working on joint opportunities with Comfort Systems USA's mechanical contractors in the Utah market, expanding the combination of electrical and mechanical capabilities.

    What are the main risks to monitor for FIX during fiscal 2026?

    The first risk is concentration, because technology accounted for 58% of revenue in the first half of fiscal 2026, while the current Modular expansion also depends heavily on existing customers. The second is the expected growth slowdown, as management expects same-store revenue growth to finish in the mid-to-high 30% range after 47% in the first six months, due to more difficult comparisons, particularly in Q4. Other risks include adjustments to estimates for large projects, new competitors in Modular, and possible delays to data center projects due to permits, local opposition, and power availability.

    What do liquidity and capital spending look like at Comfort Systems USA?

    The company generated free cash flow of $999 million in Q2 of fiscal 2026 and ended the period with net cash exceeding $1.8 billion. Management is targeting capital spending equal to approximately 5% of fiscal 2026 revenue to fund buildings, robotics, and production equipment related to the expansion, and indicated that it purchased one building for $100 million. However, the CFO explained that part of the quarterly cash flow came from upfront cash and favorable payment terms, so the $999 million figure should not be assumed to recur every quarter.