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Home
Stocks
FedEx Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall63
Balanced — near the middle of the marketSuper StockF 6/9Grey zoneBetter than 63% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
75
16.9x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
43
7.7%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
54
6.0%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
56
2.9x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
43
1.86%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
54
43.1%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
74
17▲3Top tier
FDX

FDX FedEx Corporation

FedEx Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
311.99
▲ ⁦+0.06%⁩ (+0.19)
Market Cap$73.8B
Beta1.36
52w Low52w High
216.70404.03
Last Week
⁦-1.44%⁩
Last Month
⁦-1.23%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-13.99%⁩
Last Year
⁦+43.45%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$312
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$350
⁦+12%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$160–$425⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$198
⁦-37%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦10.4⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$198–$350⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$333.45
⁦+6.9%⁩
Current Price $311.99·Median $350.00
Low
$160.00
High
$425.00
Current price
$311.99
Average target
$333.45
Street summary

FedEx Consensus Price Target Raised While Coverage Remains Limited

Bullish tilt

The consensus price target rose to 333.45 from 316.64 one day and seven days earlier, an increase of 16.81 or 5.31%. Over 30 days, it rose from 322.21, an increase of 11.24 or 3.49%. This indicates a moderate improvement in the price outlook, with the consensus target approximately 7.85% above the current price of 309.19, while the median target stands at 350; however, the number of analysts remained at one analyst, limiting the significance of the consensus.

As of 2026-09-09
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+3.5%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.75
Buy
Analyst coverage
28
Buy conviction
71%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
85%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time28 analysts rating
4
16
6
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.69 → 3.75
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-19
    Raymond James
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-15
    Citigroup
    BuyOutperform
  • = Reiterate2026-06-24
    UBS
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    16.86x
    5.69x45.54x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    16.59x
    4.57x36.58x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    10.37x
    3.43x27.47x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    6.9%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    7.7%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    9.4%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    21.8%
    8.6%54.6%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    6.0%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.86x
    0.55x4.37x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    1.9%
    0.1%4.8%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    31.0%
    6.6%80.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    2.54
    -5.667.97
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-06-23 data

Company Overview

FedEx Corporation operates a global transportation and logistics network serving domestic and international shipments, parcels, and air freight, moving goods worth more than $2 trillion annually and delivering nearly 18 million packages each business day. The revenue model is based on shipment volumes and yields realized per package, with the mix directed toward premium B2B services, high-value B2C shipments, and the healthcare, automotive, aviation, and data center sectors, rather than pursuing low-yield volume.

In fiscal year 2026, FedEx recorded revenue of $94.7 billion, net income of $4.4 billion, and GAAP earnings per share of $18.55. Annual revenue and adjusted operating income increased by 8%, while FEC revenue grew by 9% and its adjusted operating income by 17%, with its adjusted margin expanding 60 basis points to 7.7%, the highest level in four years. Adjusted free cash flow also reached $4.7 billion, up $800 million from fiscal year 2025, with capital expenditures of $3.8 billion, equivalent to 4% of revenue.

In Q4 of fiscal year 2026, revenue according to EDGAR was approximately $25.0 billion and net income was $1.6 billion, equivalent to a net income margin of approximately 6.4%, while adjusted earnings per share were $6.31. Consolidated revenue grew by 13% and adjusted operating income by 3%, while FEC achieved growth of 14% in revenue and 13% in adjusted operating income; in contrast, FedEx Freight's adjusted operating income declined by $114 million and its margin fell 570 basis points before the completion of its separation on June 1, 2026.

What's Driving the Stock

  • FedEx expects calendar year 2026 revenue growth of approximately 11% from a calendar year 2025 baseline of approximately $82 billion, with fuel surcharges contributing approximately three percentage points, and it expects adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations of between $16.90 and $18.10.
  • The Network 2.0 initiative advanced to approximately 490 optimized stations handling nearly 45% of eligible volumes by the end of June 2026, and the company aims to raise the proportion to 65% before peak season. Network 2.0 and the One FedEx program target the full $2 billion in annual savings by the end of calendar year 2027, after exceeding the $1 billion transformation savings target in fiscal year 2026.
  • Premium business-to-business services became the largest driver of revenue growth in Q4 of fiscal year 2026, with improvement across the four targeted sectors: healthcare, automotive, aviation, and data centers. The company ended fiscal year 2026 with a revenue run rate of approximately $10 billion from transporting healthcare shipments and launched FedEx Life Sciences in June 2026 to support complex pharmaceutical shipments that are sensitive to time and temperature.
  • The artificial intelligence and data center business achieved double-digit revenue growth, while international export package volumes increased by 5% and international air freight daily pounds by 12% in Q4 of fiscal year 2026. FedEx also recorded its twelfth consecutive quarter of growing international market share in Europe and achieved double-digit export revenue growth on Asia-Europe, intra-Asia, and U.S. outbound lanes.
  • Strong cash flows supported the capital return policy; FedEx increased its annual dividend by 5% after adjusting for the effect of the FedEx Freight separation and set a quarterly dividend of $1.22 per share payable on October 1, 2026, to shareholders of record on September 14, 2026. The company also plans to repurchase up to $1 billion of shares during the remainder of calendar year 2026.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The shift toward higher-quality revenue has demonstrated its ability to increase profits; FEC package yields rose by 11% in Q4 of fiscal year 2026, and most of the incremental profit resulting from yields was driven by base price increases rather than fuel surcharges.
  • +The FedEx network provides significant operating leverage when volume growth is combined with pricing; in fiscal year 2026, FEC added approximately $7 billion to revenue and $940 million to adjusted operating income, with its margin expanding to 7.7%.
  • +The healthcare, artificial intelligence, and data center sectors open high-value growth avenues; healthcare transportation revenue approached $10 billion at the end of fiscal year 2026, while the artificial intelligence and data center ecosystem recorded the highest growth rates among the four targeted sectors.
  • +Capital discipline strengthens the company's ability to fund both the transformation and capital returns; adjusted free cash flow reached $4.7 billion in fiscal year 2026, with conversion of approximately 100% of adjusted net income and capital expenditures at only 4% of revenue.

▼ Selling Case7 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus rates FDX as “Buy,” with an average target of $303, compared with a highest target of $425 and a lowest target of $160. The average target is below the 52-week high of $345.37, while the spread between the targets extends to $265, a range that reflects significant disagreement over the sustainability of margin expansion following the FedEx Freight separation. The positive case is based on FEC growth and free cash flow, while cost burdens, slowing volumes in some areas, and execution risks remain key justifications for the cautious end of the valuation range.

BuyAnalyst target: $303(-2.9%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were the key FDX results in Q4 of fiscal year 2026?

FedEx recorded revenue of $25.0 billion and net income of $1.6 billion according to EDGAR data, equivalent to a net income margin of approximately 6.4%. Adjusted earnings per share were $6.31, while consolidated revenue rose by 13% and adjusted operating income by 3%. At the FEC level, revenue grew by 14% and adjusted operating income by 13%, while FedEx Freight's adjusted operating income declined by $114 million.

What is FedEx's outlook for calendar year 2026 following the change in its reporting cycle?

FedEx expects revenue growth of approximately 11% compared with a calendar year 2025 baseline of approximately $82 billion, including approximately three percentage points from fuel surcharges. It expects adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations of between $16.90 and $18.10, with a midpoint of $17.50. For the transition period from June to December 2026, the company expects adjusted earnings per share of approximately $11.30 and year-over-year growth of 20%.

How are Network 2.0 and Tricolor expected to improve FDX profitability?

Approximately 45% of eligible volumes were flowing through nearly 490 optimized stations under Network 2.0 by the end of June 2026, and the company aims to raise the proportion to 65% before peak season. Network 2.0 and the One FedEx program aim to achieve the full $2 billion in annual savings by the end of calendar year 2027, after exceeding $1 billion in transformation savings in fiscal year 2026. Tricolor supports greater air network density and expansion in international air freight, where daily pounds rose by 12% in Q4 of fiscal year 2026.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Q4 of fiscal year 2026 showed pressure on revenue conversion into profit, as consolidated revenue rose by 13% compared with growth of only 3% in adjusted operating income. FEC revenue also grew by 14% compared with 13% growth in its adjusted operating income, due to higher fuel costs, variable compensation, and direct trade-related costs.
  • −The calendar year 2026 outlook includes $2.6 billion in underlying expense increases due to wages, purchased transportation, and inflation, in addition to an $800 million burden from variable compensation and $200 million from the pilot agreement. Estimated yield gains of approximately $3.7 billion and Network 2.0 savings need to offset these burdens for the promised margin improvement to be achieved.
  • −There are clear signs of slowing volumes in some areas: Ground Economy volume declined by approximately 5% and international domestic volume by 9% in Q4 of fiscal year 2026, and management expects Ground Economy to continue declining at a low-single-digit rate and international domestic services at a high-single-digit rate during calendar year 2026. It also expects the growth rate of the U.S. domestic business to slow when compared with the addition of strong new business during the prior year.
  • −FedEx faces direct competition in services for small and medium-sized businesses and third-party delivery, and the June 23, 2026 call addressed Amazon's expansion in logistics and fulfillment services for this segment. Although FedEx reported renewal rates in the mid-90% range and double-digit growth among small and medium-sized businesses, maintaining these results requires continued outperformance in speed, digital visibility, and customer service.
  • −Global trade policies and geopolitical tensions remain influential operating factors; management stated that changes in trade policy, disruptions in the Middle East, and direct trade costs created pressures during fiscal year 2026. Approximately three percentage points of the calendar year 2026 revenue growth forecast are also linked to fuel surcharges, which increase revenue without a similarly material effect on profit.
  • −The grounding of the MD-11 aircraft fleet created operational pressure during fiscal year 2026, and only four aircraft had returned to service by the June 23, 2026 call. The company also recorded a non-cash charge of $23 million for the permanent retirement of ten additional aircraft, including five MD-11 aircraft, making fleet restructuring execution and improved network density important factors for service and cost stability.
  • −The range of analyst targets between $160 and $425 reveals substantial divergence in fair value estimates, even with the consensus rating of the stock at “Buy” and an average target of $303. The average target is below the 52-week range high of $345.37, while the lowest target is below the range low of $178.33199, reflecting valuation sensitivity to the success of cost reductions and the sustainability of premium services growth.
How important are FedEx Life Sciences and artificial intelligence to the company's growth?

FedEx ended fiscal year 2026 with a revenue run rate of approximately $10 billion from transporting healthcare shipments, then launched FedEx Life Sciences in June 2026. The unit supports global healthcare corridors and temperature-sensitive services, including a temperature-controlled corridor connecting Ireland with the U.S. network. In parallel, the artificial intelligence and data center ecosystem achieved double-digit revenue growth and recorded the highest growth rates among the four targeted sectors.

What are the main volume slowdown risks for FedEx?

Ground Economy volume declined by approximately 5% and international domestic volume by 9% in Q4 of fiscal year 2026, despite growth of 3% in total U.S. domestic volume and 5% in international export package volume. Management expects a low-single-digit decline in Ground Economy and a high-single-digit decline in international domestic services during calendar year 2026. It also expects U.S. domestic business growth to slow as it laps the addition of new healthcare business in Q4 of fiscal year 2025, so the strategy's success depends on offsetting lower volume with higher yields and better profitability.

How does FedEx return cash to FDX shareholders?

Adjusted free cash flow reached $4.7 billion in fiscal year 2026, up $800 million from fiscal year 2025, with conversion of approximately 100% of adjusted net income. The company increased its annual dividend by 5% after adjusting for the effect of the FedEx Freight separation and set a quarterly payment of $1.22 per share payable on October 1, 2026, to shareholders of record on September 14, 2026. It also plans to repurchase up to $1 billion of shares during the remainder of calendar year 2026, alongside funding growth investments and pension plan contributions.