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Stocks
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall64
Balanced — near the middle of the marketMomentum TrapF 6/9SafeBetter than 64% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
36
34.7x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
60
-9.7%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
46
16.1%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
70
0.8x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
37
0.84%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
80
56.9%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
62
14▲3Around median
FCX

FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
71.07
▼ ⁦-0.20%⁩ (-0.14)
Market Cap$102.2B
Beta1.38
52w Low52w High
35.1580.24
Last Week
⁦-2.05%⁩
Last Month
⁦+2.67%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+7.13%⁩
Last Year
⁦+58.36%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$71
Analyst target · 12 analysts
$73
⁦+3%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$47–$82⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$13
⁦-82%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦10.5⁩% discount · ⁦9⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$13–$73⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 12 analysts setting price target
$71.36
⁦+0.4%⁩
Current Price $71.07·Median $73.00
Low
$47.00
High
$82.00
Current price
$71.07
Average target
$71.36
Street summary

Slight Decline and Wide Divergence in FCX Price Targets

The consensus price target stood at 71.36, compared with 72.41 7 and 30 days ago, down by 1.05 or 1.45%. The consensus was unchanged over the last day, while the number of analysts included rose from 7 to 12 over 30 days, making the current comparison broader in scope. The range is between 47 and 82, with the median at 73, reflecting a notable divergence in estimates compared with the price of 71.23.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-1.4%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦23 (+5)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
78%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
49%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time23 analysts rating
6
12
4
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.83 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-10
    Goldman Sachs
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-24
    Wells Fargo
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-24
    RBC Capital
    Sector Perform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    34.67x
    4.94x39.51x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    19.46x
    3.70x29.59x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    13.43x
    2.62x20.92x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    1.4%
    -21.3%8.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -9.7%
    -21.2%90.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    55.3%
    -249.5%198.4%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    27.1%
    7.6%58.9%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    16.1%
    -52.6%20.2%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.84x
    0.22x3.72x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.8%
    0.2%5.5%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    29.4%
    4.7%147.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    3.25
    -11.4212.56
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-23 data

Company Overview

Freeport-McMoRan is a global copper producer, with additional gold and molybdenum production and mining, smelting, and processing operations in the United States, Indonesia, and South America. Its ability to generate revenue and earnings depends on metal sales volumes and prices and extraction and processing costs, while organic growth drivers include ramping up Grasberg production, expanding Bagdad and El Abra, and increasing copper recovery from stockpiles through leaching initiatives. In the first half of fiscal year 2026, U.S. mining operations generated operating income equal to 2.4 times its level in the corresponding period, demonstrating the diversity of geographic contributions alongside Grasberg.

In quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, revenue was $7.0 billion, gross profit was $2.2 billion, net income was $984 million, and earnings per share according to EDGAR were approximately $0.68, while adjusted earnings per share reported in the company’s results were $0.74. This equates to a gross profit margin of approximately 31.4% and a net income margin of approximately 14.1%. Compared with quarter 1 of fiscal year 2026, revenue increased from $6.2 billion to $7.0 billion, gross profit from $1.7 billion to $2.2 billion, and net income from $881 million to $984 million.

Revenue for the trailing twelve months ended in fiscal year 2026 was approximately $26.8 billion, gross profit was $7.8 billion, and net income was $4.7 billion. Performance in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 came from the copper, gold, and molybdenum portfolio, with improved execution of the Grasberg ramp-up and strength in the Americas operations, despite a 30% year-over-year decline in copper sales volumes. Consolidated net income in the first half of fiscal year 2026 also increased by 65% year over year, benefiting from metal prices and improved operating performance.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The company raised its sales volume outlook, expecting copper sales in the second half of fiscal year 2026 to increase by more than 20% over the first half and gold sales to increase by more than 65%, followed by copper sales in fiscal year 2027 increasing by more than 20% over fiscal year 2026 and gold sales increasing by more than 50%.
  • The Grasberg Block Cave production rate doubled from an average of 34 thousand tonnes per day in April 2026 to 69 thousand tonnes per day in June 2026, with a target range of approximately 60 to 65 thousand tonnes per day in the second half of fiscal year 2026 during the material-handling system upgrade. The company aims to reach approximately 65% of the area’s full capacity by mid-2027 and approach full capacity by the end of 2027.
  • The mining rate at Morenci during quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 increased by 30% over the average of the previous five years to approximately 900 thousand tonnes of material per day. The addition of 400-ton haul trucks, with a plan to add more than 20 additional trucks in 2027, supports expectations for growth in U.S. copper production.
  • The leaching initiative aims to reach a production rate of 300 million pounds annually by the end of 2026, compared with a rate of approximately 200 million pounds at the time of the July 23, 2026 call, with a long-term pathway reaching 800 million pounds annually. Management reported that the initial results from first-generation additives exceeded its expectations, with tests of second-generation additives and heating at Morenci and El Abra.
  • The copper market supports FCX’s results; the average copper price on the London Metal Exchange was $5.93 per pound through June 2026, while the company said its U.S. customers reported strong demand associated with AI data centers, energy infrastructure, and an improving automotive sector. Visible inventories in China also fell to their lowest levels in several years, and London Metal Exchange inventories reached 204,975 tonnes after 42 consecutive sessions of declines.
  • Earnings sensitivity illustrates the significant impact of metal prices: every $0.10 per pound change in copper equates to approximately $390 million in annual earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization based on average fiscal year 2027 and fiscal year 2028 volumes. Under the company’s assumptions, these annual earnings range from approximately $13 billion at copper priced at $5 per pound to $20 billion at $7 per pound.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +FCX combines volume growth with pricing strength; quarter 2 fiscal year 2026 results exceeded expectations, net income in the first half increased by 65%, and the company expects significant increases in copper and gold sales during the second half and then in fiscal year 2027.
  • +Grasberg offers clear operating leverage, as the Grasberg Block Cave rate doubled during quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 from 34 thousand to 69 thousand tonnes per day, and management confirms that the ramp-up plan remains on track, with Production Block 1 South targeted to resume in 2027.
  • +The organic growth portfolio offers multiple options; the leaching initiative targets a pathway reaching 800 million pounds annually, the Bagdad expansion could make the mine the second-largest copper mine in the United States after Morenci, and the U.S. business targets a potential 60% increase in copper production over the coming years.
  • +Liquidity and the balance sheet support investment and shareholder returns; the company returned $600 million to shareholders in the first half of fiscal year 2026, including approximately $200 million in share repurchases, and total distributions and repurchases since the financial policy was adopted in 2021 amounted to approximately $6.3 billion.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $72.41, within a wide range of $58.50 to $82, with a consensus rating classified as “buy”; the average target is below the 52-week range high of $80.24, while the highest target is slightly above that high. The 52-week range extends from $35.15 to $80.24, and the revaluation during the year ended August 2026 was associated with quarter 2 fiscal year 2026 results exceeding expectations, higher copper prices, and an improved production outlook. Conversely, the approximately 30% increase in the Bagdad capital estimate to $4.5 billion, higher fiscal year 2027 spending, and the wide range of analyst targets limit the valuation’s appeal.

BuyAnalyst target: $72.41(+1.9%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What is driving Freeport-McMoRan’s earnings growth in fiscal year 2026?

Revenue in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 was approximately $7.0 billion, net income was $984 million, and adjusted earnings per share were $0.74. Net income in the first half of fiscal year 2026 increased by 65% over the corresponding period, and U.S. operations contributed operating income equal to 2.4 times its previous level. The improvement came from favorable metal prices, greater efficiency in U.S. operations, and progress in ramping up Grasberg production, despite a 30% year-over-year decline in copper sales volumes.

How is the Grasberg restart and production ramp-up progressing?

Average Grasberg Block Cave production increased from 34 thousand tonnes per day in April 2026 to 69 thousand tonnes per day in June 2026. The company targets an average of approximately 60 to 65 thousand tonnes per day in the second half of fiscal year 2026 due to upgrades to the handling system, followed by approximately 65% of the area’s full capacity by mid-2027. It aims to approach full capacity by the end of 2027, with Production Block 1 South targeted to resume during 2027.

How important is the Bagdad expansion project to FCX stock?

The expansion could more than double Bagdad’s production and make it the second-largest copper mine in the United States after Morenci. The company estimates the initial investment at approximately $4.5 billion, about 30% above the 2023 estimate, but believes the project remains economical at a copper price of $4 per pound. The project benefits from existing infrastructure and autonomous truck operations, and management does not expect significant permitting obstacles, with an estimated implementation period of three to four years after final approval.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −Financial performance depends heavily on copper prices; every $0.10 per pound decline reduces annual earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization by approximately $390 million under the fiscal year 2027 and fiscal year 2028 model. Higher metal prices offset a 30% year-over-year decline in copper sales volumes in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, highlighting the risk of lower earnings if weak prices coincide with continued volume pressure.
  • −Grasberg continues to involve execution and operating risks; ongoing upgrades to the material-handling system require shutdown periods during the second half of fiscal year 2026, while reaching approximately 65% of capacity by mid-2027 and approaching full capacity by the end of 2027 requires phased execution of several risk-mitigation measures. An application to extend operating rights was also submitted in June 2026, but management said on the July 23, 2026 call that there was no specific timetable for formal approval.
  • −Preliminary capital estimates for the Bagdad expansion increased to approximately $4.5 billion, about 30% above the 2023 estimate due to commodity and labor cost inflation, scope adjustments, and additional engineering work. This amount is also not yet included in the existing capital expenditure outlook because it remains subject to the completion of studies and final approval.
  • −The fiscal year 2027 capital expenditure outlook increased to $4.8 billion, $300 million above the April 2026 estimate, while expected discretionary projects total $1.9 billion. Higher equipment, energy, sulfur, and acid costs could create additional pressure, and management acknowledged that current market conditions prevent it from reaching the U.S. operations cost target of $2.50 per pound in fiscal year 2027.
  • −The sales trajectory includes timing risk between production and conversion into sales, as the company expects to build concentrate inventory in Indonesia during quarter 3 of fiscal year 2026 before offsetting part of it in quarter 4 of fiscal year 2026. This depends on commissioning the new smelter, building sufficient inventory to operate it steadily, and converting production into refined copper sales.
  • −Insider activity during the three months ended August 25, 2026 recorded four sales with no purchases, for net sales of $8.1 million and a signal classified as strong_sell. This remains a weak market signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the context did not specify the reasons for these transactions.
How large is the opportunity from Freeport-McMoRan’s leaching initiative?

The initiative’s rate was approximately 200 million pounds annually at the time of the July 23, 2026 call, and the company targets 300 million pounds annually by the end of 2026. Over the longer term, it sees a potential pathway to 800 million pounds annually using chemical additives, heating leach solutions, and improving irrigation and injection. Management said the results from first-generation additives exceeded its expectations, while it prepares to test second-generation additives at Morenci, New Mexico, and El Abra.

How sensitive are FCX’s results to copper and gold prices?

The company estimates that every $0.10 per pound change in copper changes annual earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization by approximately $390 million based on fiscal year 2027 and fiscal year 2028 volumes. Every $100 per ounce change in gold equates to approximately $105 million annually, while a $1 per pound change in molybdenum equates to approximately $85 million. Assuming gold at $4,000 per ounce and molybdenum at $30 per pound, modeled annual earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization range from $13 billion at copper priced at $5 per pound to $20 billion at $7.

Can Freeport-McMoRan fund growth and return cash to shareholders at the same time?

The company expects capital expenditure of $4.8 billion in fiscal year 2027, including approximately $1.9 billion for discretionary projects, and this does not yet include the full Bagdad expansion, which remains subject to approval. In the first half of fiscal year 2026, it returned $600 million to shareholders, including approximately $200 million through share repurchases. Since adopting its financial policy in 2021, total distributions and share repurchases have amounted to $6.3 billion, while management said there are no significant debt maturities during fiscal year 2026.