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Home
Stocks
Fastenal Company
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall88
Excellent — top fifth of the marketHigh FlyerF 7/9SafeBetter than 88% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
18
41.8x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
66
12.5%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
83
29.8%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
96
0.2x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
38
1.86%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
72
8.2%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
84
12▲3Top tier
FAST

FAST Fastenal Company

Fastenal Company · NASDAQ
Market Closed
49.32
▲ ⁦+0.63%⁩ (+0.31)
Market Cap$56.6B
Beta0.71
52w Low52w High
38.9752.92
Last Week
⁦+2.90%⁩
Last Month
⁦-5.84%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+7.15%⁩
Last Year
⁦+2.96%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$49
Analyst target · 11 analysts
$47
⁦-5%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$42–$55⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$21
⁦-58%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦4⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$21–$47⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 11 analysts setting price target
$49.00
⁦-0.6%⁩
Current Price $49.32·Median $47.00
Low
$42.00
High
$55.00
Current price
$49.32
Average target
$49.00
Street summary

FAST Target Stability with Clear Divergence Among Analysts

The average price target rose from 48.88 to 49 over the last 7 and 30 days, an increase of 0.12 or 0.25%, while the number of analysts remained at 11. Over the last day, there was no change. The current range is between 42 and 55, while the median is 47, reflecting notable dispersion; the current price of 49.38 is also slightly above the average target.

As of 2026-09-08
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.3%⁩
Average rating
★ 2.89
Hold
Analyst coverage
18
Buy conviction
33%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
26%
Analyst ratings over time18 analysts rating
6
7
2
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.00 → 2.89
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-04
    William Blair
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-15
    Bernstein
    Underperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-09
    Wolfe Research
    Underperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    41.80x
    5.69x45.54x
    Above average
  • Forward P/E
    36.34x
    4.57x36.58x
    Expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    29.09x
    3.43x27.47x
    Expensive
  • FCF Yield
    2.0%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    12.5%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    51.3%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    44.7%
    8.6%54.6%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    29.8%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.16x
    0.55x4.37x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    1.9%
    0.1%4.8%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    78.1%
    6.6%80.8%
    High
  • Altman Z-Score
    32.19
    -5.667.97
    Exceptional
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-14 data

Company Overview

Fastenal Company distributes manufacturing and industrial supplies, with a historical focus on fasteners alongside direct and indirect materials. The company generates revenue through contracts with key accounts, customer-site locations, digital sales, and the Fastenal Managed Inventory system known as FMI; in Q2 fiscal 2026, the digital footprint accounted for 61.6% of sales, while FMI-related sales represented approximately 44.6%.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, revenue was $2.4 billion, gross profit was $1.1 billion, net income was $382.8 million, and earnings per share were $0.33. These figures equate to a gross margin of approximately 45.8% and a net income margin of approximately 16.0%, while average daily sales grew 14.7% year over year, compared with 12.4% in Q1 fiscal 2026.

Heavy manufacturing was the largest disclosed component of the mix, accounting for 44% of sales and recording 18% growth in average daily sales during Q2 fiscal 2026. Construction grew by approximately 17% for the second consecutive quarter, supported by demand in electrical, utilities, infrastructure, and data centers, while the direct and indirect material categories grew at mid-teens rates, with direct materials slightly outperforming.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Average daily sales increased 14.7% in Q2 fiscal 2026, and management explained that the gains came from new contracts, increased share with existing customers, pricing, and improved industrial production, rather than from market improvement alone.
  • The number of customer contracts increased by more than 7% year over year, and the number of locations spending $50 thousand or more per month rose 16.5%, while revenue from these locations grew by more than 26%; reflecting the deepening of the key-account strategy.
  • Digital footprint sales grew 16.2% and came to represent 61.6% of total sales in Q2 fiscal 2026, while e-commerce sales grew 12.6%. At the same time, FMI device signings increased 8.3% to 109 weighted devices per day, or just under 7 thousand devices during the quarter.
  • Heavy manufacturing achieved daily growth of 18% and accounted for 44% of sales, while construction grew by approximately 17%, supported by electrical, utilities, infrastructure, and data centers; this shows that the acceleration was not confined to a single end market.
  • The company achieved a pricing impact of approximately 2.9% during Q2 fiscal 2026, or approximately 4.5% cumulatively, to offset cost inflation and tariffs. Nevertheless, the price-cost impact remained negative by approximately 40 basis points, making pricing progress a critical factor for margins in the second half of fiscal 2026.
  • Management expects net capital expenditures of approximately $320 million in fiscal 2026, or around 3.5% of revenue based on the revenue estimates it used, to expand distribution centers, automation, technology infrastructure, and FMI devices.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Fastenal combines 14.7% daily sales growth with an expansion of the contract base by more than 7%, while revenue from large locations grew by more than 26% in Q2 fiscal 2026; these are quantitative indicators of market-share gains and deeper relationships with key accounts.
  • +Expense control helped reduce selling, general, and administrative expenses to 23.5% of sales from 24.4% a year earlier, offsetting gross margin pressure and allowing the operating margin to improve by approximately 5 basis points.
  • +Return on invested capital increased 180 basis points on a trailing 12-month basis to the low-thirties percentage range, alongside sales growth, cost discipline, and capital allocation.
  • +The digital footprint, which reached 61.6% of sales, and the FMI system, which reached 44.6%, provide a scalable operating base; the increase in FMI device signings to 109 weighted devices per day also supports customer retention and service efficiency.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −

Valuation

The analyst consensus on FAST is Neutral, with an average price target of $48.88 and a relatively wide range between $42 and $55. The average target is below the 52-week range high of $52.92, while the highest target slightly exceeds that high, reflecting a balance between strong sales growth, gross margin pressure, and the price-cost gap.

HoldAnalyst target: $48.88(-0.9%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove Fastenal’s growth in Q2 fiscal 2026?

Average daily sales grew 14.7% year over year, up from 12.4% in Q1 fiscal 2026. Management attributed this to new contracts, increased share with existing customers, a pricing impact of 2.9%, and improved industrial production. The number of contracts also increased by more than 7%, and revenue from locations spending $50 thousand or more per month grew by more than 26%.

How important are FMI and digital sales to Fastenal’s business?

FMI sales represented approximately 44.6% of total sales in Q2 fiscal 2026, an increase of approximately 60 basis points from the prior year. FMI device signings increased 8.3% to 109 weighted devices per day, or just under 7 thousand devices during the quarter. Digital footprint sales grew 16.2% and reached 61.6% of total sales, while e-commerce grew 12.6%.

Did Fastenal’s growth improve from Q1 to Q2 fiscal 2026?

Yes, average daily sales growth increased from 12.4% in Q1 fiscal 2026 to 14.7% in Q2 fiscal 2026. Q2 revenue reached approximately $2.4 billion, compared with $2.2 billion in Q1, while net income increased to $382.8 million from $339.8 million. Earnings per share also increased to $0.33 from $0.30 between the two periods.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Gross margin contracted by approximately 75 basis points year over year in Q2 fiscal 2026, with the price-cost impact responsible for approximately 40 basis points of pressure, while management expects gradual improvement rather than a certain full closure of the gap during the second half of fiscal 2026.
  • −The deliberate shift toward larger customers lowers the gross margin percentage because these accounts carry below-average gross margins, while freight costs and customer rebates added further pressure during Q2 fiscal 2026.
  • −The company lowered its estimate for the digital footprint’s share in fiscal 2026 to 63%–64% from the original target of 66%, even as digital sales grew 16.2%; management attributed the gap to non-digital sales also growing rapidly, but it still represents a quantitative shortfall from the previous target.
  • −Cost inflation, tariffs, and fuel prices remain unpredictable, and management stated that keeping pace with the flow of new costs while addressing the price-cost gap requires sustained effort and may limit further margin improvement.
  • −Some end markets tied to discretionary consumer spending continued to lag manufacturing and construction in Q2 fiscal 2026, showing that the improvement in demand was not uniform across all customer segments.
  • −The analyst consensus on FAST is Neutral, and the average target of $48.88 is below the 52-week range high of $52.92, while the target range extends from $42 to $55; this dispersion reflects a meaningful difference of opinion regarding the level of growth and margins that justifies the valuation.
  • Why is Fastenal’s gross margin under pressure despite strong sales?

    Gross margin contracted by approximately 75 basis points year over year in Q2 fiscal 2026, with the price-cost impact accounting for approximately 40 basis points of pressure. Additional pressure came from the shift toward larger customers with lower gross margins, freight costs, and customer rebates. In contrast, selling, general, and administrative expenses declined to 23.5% of sales from 24.4%, helping improve the operating margin by approximately 5 basis points.

    Which sectors led Fastenal’s sales in Q2 fiscal 2026?

    Heavy manufacturing accounted for 44% of total sales, and its average daily sales grew 18% during Q2 fiscal 2026. Construction grew by approximately 17% for the second consecutive quarter, with strength in electrical, utilities, infrastructure, and data centers. Direct and indirect materials also grew at mid-teens rates, with direct materials slightly outperforming.

    How is Fastenal allocating capital in fiscal 2026?

    The company expects net capital expenditures of approximately $320 million in fiscal 2026, focused on distribution centers, automation, technology infrastructure, and FMI devices. Net capital expenditures were approximately $60 million in Q2 fiscal 2026. The company also returned $350 million to shareholders during the quarter, mostly through cash dividends alongside limited share repurchases, equivalent to approximately 80% of net income according to management’s presentation.