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Stocks
Ford Motor Company
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall45
Balanced — near the middle of the marketTurnaroundF 2/8Better than 45% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
85
—17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
20
1.5%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
16
-1.1%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
27
17.0x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
39
5.37%▲2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
64
19.8%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
96
13▲3Top tier
F

F Ford Motor Company

Ford Motor Company · NYSE
Market Closed
13.97
▲ ⁦+0.65%⁩ (+0.09)
Market Cap$55.4B
Beta1.85
52w Low52w High
11.1117.78
Last Week
⁦-1.20%⁩
Last Month
⁦-0.07%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-2.31%⁩
Last Year
⁦+21.58%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$14
Analyst target · 6 analysts
$17
⁦+18%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$15–$18⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$-20.14
⁦-244%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦12.6⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$-20.14–$17⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target
$16.38
⁦+17.3%⁩
Current Price $13.97·Median $16.50
Low
$15.00
High
$17.50
Current price
$13.97
Average target
$16.38
Street summary

Ford’s targets remain stable with limited dispersion

Price targets have not changed over the past 30 days; consensus remained at 16.38 among six analysts, while the range was between 15 and 17.5, with the median at 16.5. Compared with the current price of 13.47, the targets indicate theoretical upside potential, but the absence of any recent upward or downward revisions means the outlook has not become more optimistic or pessimistic.

As of 2026-09-09
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.45
Hold
Analyst coverage
22
Buy conviction
36%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
18%
Analyst ratings over time22 analysts rating
3
5
13
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.13 → 3.45
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-09
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-27
    Morgan Stanley
    Positive
  • = Reiterate2026-07-29
    TD Cowen
    Hold
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    —
    —
  • Forward P/E
    7.31x
    3.79x30.29x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    23.55x
    2.75x22.03x
    Expensive
  • FCF Yield
    13.1%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    1.5%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -338.0%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Weak
  • Gross Margin
    8.2%
    12.0%66.5%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    -1.1%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    17.00x
    0.65x5.48x
    Financial risk
  • Dividend Yield
    5.4%
    0.1%5.9%
    High
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-28 data

Company Overview

Ford Motor Company operates through three interconnected segments: consumer vehicles under Ford Blue, commercial vehicles and related services under Ford Pro, and electric vehicles under Model e, alongside Ford Credit for financing. The company seeks to increase recurring revenue through software, parts, and maintenance; its connected vehicle fleet exceeded 14 million, and paid subscriptions reached about 1.6 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, including more than 900 thousand Ford Pro Intelligence subscriptions.

In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Ford reported revenue of $48.3 billion, down 4% year over year, and adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of $2.5 billion, up 17%, equivalent to an adjusted margin of about 5.2%. Despite the operational improvement, the company reported a net loss of $1.3 billion due to a one-time special item related to the exit from the BlueOval SK battery venture; it also generated adjusted free cash flow of $2.1 billion and ended the period with total liquidity of $43.4 billion.

Ford Blue generated approximately $26.1 billion in revenue and $1.1 billion in earnings before interest and taxes in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, while Ford Pro generated revenue of $17.8 billion and earnings of $1.7 billion. By contrast, Model e reported revenue of $1 billion and a loss before interest and taxes of $919 million, while Ford Credit generated pre-tax earnings of $757 million. This mix shows that Ford Pro, Ford Credit, and recurring services support profitability, while the electric transition remains a major drain on earnings and investment.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Ford raised its adjusted earnings before interest and taxes guidance for fiscal 2026 to a range of $10 billion to $11 billion, an increase of $1 billion at the midpoint, and also raised its adjusted free cash flow guidance to between $6 billion and $7 billion; it attributed this primarily to the strength of product mix and pricing.
  • Demand for trucks and off-road products remains an important driver: F-Series outsold its closest competitor by more than 80 thousand units during the first half of fiscal 2026, and off-road vehicles accounted for 25% of Ford's U.S. sales during the second quarter, while Raptor sales increased 9% fiscal year to date.
  • Ford is expanding Super Duty production capacity in Oakville by up to an additional 100 thousand units, targeting startup in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. Ford Pro plans to make up deferred fleet orders during the second half, after the Novelis supply disruption reduced segment revenue by 5% and earnings before interest and taxes by 26% in the second quarter.
  • Total paid subscriptions increased by about 50% to nearly 1.6 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, and paid Ford Pro Intelligence subscriptions exceeded 900 thousand, growing by more than 20%. Paid BlueCruise subscriptions also grew 20%, and the service accounted for 50% of integrated services revenue from retail customers, supporting the expansion of high-margin recurring revenue.
  • Ford Energy is targeting annual production capacity of 20 gigawatt-hours by late 2027, and management said it had reached the third phase of marketing 2028 capacity and was holding discussions with a broad customer base. In parallel, deliveries of the first vehicle on the UEV platform will begin in 2027 at a price of about $30 thousand, while news on August 6, 2026, announced that the Fathom midsize electric truck will start at $28 thousand.
  • Ford signed a contract with the U.S. federal government to produce three prototypes based on Super Duty for military use. This step represents a practical test of expanding Ford Defense close to the company's core capabilities, but management did not announce additional defense contracts or an expected financial scale for this business.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case5 pts

  • +Ford raised its fiscal 2026 guidance after generating $2.5 billion in adjusted earnings before interest and taxes in the second quarter, overcoming the impact of a 4% revenue decline through pricing and product mix. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.42 also exceeded analysts' expectations of $0.36.
  • +Ford Pro enjoys strong profitability despite the aluminum disruption; the segment reported $1.7 billion in earnings before interest and taxes on revenue of $17.8 billion in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, equivalent to a margin of about 9.6%. Adding up to 100 thousand units of Super Duty capacity in Oakville and making up deferred orders could support a volume recovery in the second half.
  • +The growth of recurring services provides a path to improving earnings quality, with 1.6 million paid subscriptions and 1.5 million remote maintenance services during the second quarter of fiscal 2026. Management believes integrated services could add about half a percentage point to the company's margin, as part of its targeted path toward an 8% earnings before interest and taxes margin by 2029.
  • +Ford Energy and the UEV platform offer two growth options beyond the traditional vehicle cycle: targeted annual storage capacity of 20 gigawatt-hours by late 2027, and a utility electric vehicle priced at about $30 thousand with deliveries beginning in 2027. This is accompanied by an expected annual improvement of about 40% in first-generation Model e earnings during fiscal 2026, although the segment remains loss-making.

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $16.38, within a relatively narrow range of $15 to $17.50, and the upper end remains slightly below the 52-week range high of $17.78, compared with a low of $11.11, while the consensus rates the stock Neutral. No positive price-to-earnings ratio is available because of the fiscal 2025 loss and the cumulative net loss over the last twelve months, so any sustained improvement in valuation depends on demonstrating that Ford Pro earnings, pricing, and services can offset Model e losses and Novelis, commodity, and trade costs.

HoldAnalyst target: $16.38(+17.3%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove Ford to raise its fiscal 2026 guidance?

Ford raised its adjusted earnings before interest and taxes range to between $10 billion and $11 billion, an increase of $1 billion at the midpoint. The increase followed the generation of $2.5 billion in adjusted earnings before interest and taxes in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, up 17% despite a 4% decline in revenue to $48.3 billion. Management attributed the improvement primarily to strong pricing and product mix, and also raised its adjusted free cash flow guidance to between $6 billion and $7 billion. The guidance assumes the U.S. auto market remains at 16 million to 16.5 million units, but does not include a major escalation in the Middle East or a material slowdown in the U.S. economy.

Has Ford's electric vehicle business become profitable?

Model e had not become profitable as of the second quarter of fiscal 2026; it reported a loss before interest and taxes of $919 million on revenue of $1 billion. However, the segment's loss improved 31% year over year, marking the third consecutive quarter of annual improvement. Ford expects the Model e loss to reach about $4 billion in fiscal 2026, with first-generation earnings improving by about 40%. Deliveries of the first vehicle on the UEV platform begin in 2027 at a price of about $30 thousand, while the Fathom announcement issued on August 6, 2026, set a starting price of $28 thousand.

How important is Ford Pro to the company's earnings?
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • +Insider activity showed one purchase and no sales during the three months ending with the latest transaction on June 23, 2026, with a net value of $148,880.18. This is a limited supportive signal and not a substitute for assessing earnings, cash flows, and operational risks.
  • ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Model e still represents the largest gap in segment profitability; it lost $919 million before interest and taxes on revenue of $1 billion in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, and Ford expects a loss of about $4 billion for the segment over the full fiscal year. The plan also includes approximately $1 billion in additional investments in UEV and Ford Energy, most of it in the second half, delaying the conversion of electric spending into tangible earnings.
    • −Ford reported a net loss of $1.3 billion in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, while EDGAR data show a net loss of $8.2 billion and negative earnings per share of $2.06 in fiscal 2025, and a cumulative loss of $6.1 billion over the last twelve months. A significant portion of the second-quarter loss was due to a special item related to the exit from BlueOval SK, but the company expects to complete most of the remaining cash payments associated with the December 2025 announcement, totaling up to $2 billion, by the end of 2026.
    • −The Novelis aluminum supply disruption reduced production volumes, and Ford incurred about $800 million in related costs during the first half of fiscal 2026 and expects an annual impact of approximately $1.5 billion. Although alternative materials were secured and the plant restart plan remains underway, Ford Pro wholesale sales temporarily declined, and F-Series inventory remained at only about 45 days compared with the company's target range of 55 to 65 days for total U.S. retail inventory.
    • −Margins in the second half of fiscal 2026 face pressure from commodity costs that Ford expects to exceed $2 billion for the year, including about $1.5 billion in the second half, in addition to accelerated investment and Oakville launch costs. Therefore, the recovery in Super Duty and F-Series volumes may not fully translate into comparable earnings growth during the same period.
    • −The review of the North American trade agreement and tariff policies could result in billions of dollars in costs for Detroit automakers and disruption to cross-border supply chains, according to news on August 13, 2026. Ford plans to move production of some Lincoln models from China to the United States by 2030 to reduce tariff exposure, but reshaping the supply chain itself may require spending and long-term execution.
    • −The neutral analyst consensus reflects continued division over Ford's ability to balance truck and service earnings against electric vehicle losses and trade risks. There is also no positive price-to-earnings ratio available as a valuation basis because of the losses, making the valuation more dependent on the realization of adjusted earnings and cash flow guidance rather than accounting net income.

    Ford Pro generated earnings before interest and taxes of $1.7 billion on revenue of $17.8 billion in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, despite earnings declining 26% and revenue declining 5% because of the Novelis disruption. The segment leads the commercial vehicle market in North America and Europe, and paid Ford Pro Intelligence subscriptions exceeded 900 thousand, growing by more than 20%. Ford intends to begin operating the Oakville expansion in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 to add capacity of up to 100 thousand Super Duty units. The company expects Ford Pro earnings before interest and taxes to range between $7 billion and $7.5 billion in fiscal 2026.

    Can software subscriptions improve Ford's margins?

    Total paid subscriptions reached about 1.6 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, an increase of approximately 50%, including more than 900 thousand Ford Pro Intelligence subscriptions. Paid BlueCruise subscriptions grew 20%, and the service accounted for 50% of integrated services revenue from retail customers. BlueCruise usage since launch also exceeded 12.1 million hours and approached 840 million miles. Management believes high-margin integrated services could add about half a percentage point to Ford's margin over time.

    What is the impact of the Novelis disruption and commodity costs on Ford during fiscal 2026?

    Ford incurred about $800 million in temporary costs related to the Novelis aluminum supply disruption during the first half of fiscal 2026. The company expects the annual impact to reach about $1.5 billion, with the remaining balance of approximately $700 million incurred in the second half. It also expects commodity pressures exceeding $2 billion for the year, including about $1.5 billion in the second half. Management says the plant restart is proceeding according to plan and backup materials have been secured, but it depends on a production recovery to make up deferred Super Duty orders.

    How does Ford stock's valuation look according to the analyst consensus?

    The analyst consensus rates Ford stock Neutral, with an average price target of $16.38 and a target range of $15 to $17.50. The highest target is below the 52-week range high of $17.78, while the range low is $11.11, indicating that the targets do not assume a significant move above the recorded annual peak. No positive price-to-earnings ratio is available because of the fiscal 2025 loss of $8.2 billion and negative earnings per share of $2.06. Therefore, the valuation assessment depends heavily on achieving adjusted earnings guidance of between $10 billion and $11 billion and Ford's ability to reduce Model e losses and absorb Novelis and commodity costs.