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Home
Stocks
Expedia Group, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall96
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 7/9DistressBetter than 96% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
76
17.6x17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
75
12.0%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
98
26.3%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
59
—2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
65
0.63%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
70
44.5%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
63
20▲3Around median
EXPE

EXPE Expedia Group, Inc.

Expedia Group, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
280.83
▲ ⁦+1.43%⁩ (+3.95)
Market Cap$31.7B
Beta1.25
52w Low52w High
185.34342.00
Last Week
⁦-7.69%⁩
Last Month
⁦-10.57%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+21.54%⁩
Last Year
⁦+29.30%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$281
Analyst target · 11 analysts
$325
⁦+16%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$285–$430⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$526
⁦+87%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦9.9⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$325–$526⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 11 analysts setting price target
$344.40
⁦+22.6%⁩
Current Price $280.83·Median $325.00
Low
$285.00
High
$430.00
Current price
$280.83
Average target
$344.40
Street summary

Positive shift in Expedia Group (EXPE) price targets

Bullish tilt

Analyst estimates for Expedia (EXPE) stock have seen a sharp upward revision over the past thirty days, with the average price target jumping by 26.65% to reach $344.4 compared to $271.93 in late July. This momentum reflects the addition of two new analysts covering the stock, with expectations stabilizing in the last week. Despite this price optimism, there is a wide gap (dispersion) between the high target of $430 and the low target of $285, indicating uncertainty regarding the pace of future growth.

As of 2026-08-27
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+7.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.39
Hold
Analyst coverage
38
Buy conviction
45%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
52%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time38 analysts rating
17
20
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.30 → 3.39
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-20
    Wedbush
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-12
    UBS
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-08-12
    Citigroup
    Neutral
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    17.55x
    4.56x36.49x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    13.46x
    3.79x30.29x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    9.53x
    2.75x22.03x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    13.9%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    12.0%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    98.5%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    90.4%
    12.0%66.5%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    26.3%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    0.6%
    0.1%5.9%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    10.5%
    8.9%99.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.50
    -2.656.14
    Near median
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-05 data

Company Overview

Expedia Group operates as a digital travel marketplace that connects travelers with accommodation, flight, car, insurance, and activity suppliers through the Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo brands. Its consumer business relies on booking trip components and increasing the attachment rate of additional products, while its B2B platform enables more than 70,000 partners to build travel offerings using Expedia's inventory, technology, and services. The company is also expanding advertising revenue across its websites, Vrbo, and the B2B platform.

In fiscal Q2 2026, revenue reached $4.3 billion, up 14% year over year, while net income according to EDGAR was approximately $878 million and earnings per share were $7.16. On an adjusted basis, the company generated EBITDA of $1.1 billion at a margin of 25.9%, up 23% year over year with an improvement of approximately two percentage points, while adjusted earnings per share rose 36%. The provided data did not include a gross profit figure, so the profitability assessment is based on net income and adjusted EBITDA.

Gross bookings rose 12% in fiscal Q2 2026, driven by 6% growth in room nights and a 5% increase in average daily rates on a currency-neutral basis. Consumer bookings grew 8%, and the U.S. market recorded its fastest growth in 15 quarters, while the B2B business completed twenty consecutive quarters of double-digit growth. Geographically, the U.S. market accounts for approximately two-thirds of the consumer business, while approximately two-thirds of the B2B business comes from outside the United States. Over the last 12 months, revenue reached $15.2 billion, net income was $1.5 billion, and earnings per share were approximately $12.21, compared with revenue of $14.7 billion and net income of $1.3 billion in fiscal 2025.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On August 5, 2026, Expedia raised its fiscal 2026 guidance to gross bookings of between $129.5 billion and $130.8 billion, representing growth of 8% to 9%, and revenue of between $16.05 billion and $16.22 billion, representing growth of 9% to 10%, after exceeding the high end of its revenue and earnings guidance for the fifth consecutive quarter.
  • The B2B business is the clearest growth driver after twenty consecutive quarters of double-digit growth, supported by a base of more than 70,000 partners and a plan to create an integrated travel store spanning accommodations, cars, insurance, and activities. In May 2026, the company announced its intention to acquire CarTrawler, after incorporating Tiqets into its fiscal Q2 2026 results.
  • The consumer brands delivered 8% bookings growth while marketing spending increased by only 1%, and Expedia recorded quarterly attachment rates at all-time highs due to personalized hotel, car, and insurance recommendations and improvements to the Vrbo checkout experience. More than 40% of Vrbo bookings also included partner-funded offers, and bookings for properties participating in the May 2026 campaign exceeded $1 billion for the first time.
  • Expedia expanded its offering in July 2026 when it became the first online travel agency to distribute Allegiant flights and achieve full coverage of U.S. commercial airlines, strengthening its ability to connect flight bookings with accommodations and cars within a single trip.
  • The company uses artificial intelligence to improve ranking, recommendations, and personalization, and it launched natural-language search on Vrbo and updated Property Expert and AI Compare. Conversational experiences generate more than 60% more information about traveler intent, although management clarified that they had not increased conversion through fiscal Q2 2026. In 2026, the company announced the acquisition of Layla, a conversational travel-planning app, and expanded its participation in AI-powered ChatGPT and Google services.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Fiscal Q2 2026 results demonstrate tangible operating leverage, as revenue increased 14%, adjusted EBITDA rose 23%, and its margin improved by approximately two percentage points to 25.9%, while general expenses remained flat year over year.
  • +Expedia has two growth engines through its consumer business, which delivered its fastest U.S. growth in 15 quarters, and its B2B platform, which recorded twenty consecutive quarters of double-digit growth and serves more than 70,000 partners.
  • +Free cash flow reached $4.5 billion during the last 12 months through fiscal Q2 2026, enabling the company to repurchase approximately 880,000 shares for $200 million during the quarter, bringing year-to-date repurchases to $900 million.
  • +Management raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin expansion guidance to 150–175 basis points, supported by cost discipline, improved marketing returns, and the flow-through of higher booking volumes to earnings.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −

Valuation

Analyst consensus rates EXPE as "Neutral," with an average price target of $344.4 and a wide range between $285 and $430. The average is only $2.4 above the 52-week range high of $342, compared with a low of $185.34. The wide target range indicates meaningful disagreement about the sustainability of B2B growth and margin expansion, although Wells Fargo raised its target on August 7, 2026, to $307 from $303 while maintaining an Equal Weight rating, and Susquehanna raised its target to $315 from $250.

HoldAnalyst target: $344.4(+22.6%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove EXPE's fiscal Q2 2026 results?

Expedia Group's revenue rose 14% to $4.3 billion, and gross bookings increased 12%, with room nights growing 6% and average daily rates rising 5% on a currency-neutral basis. Adjusted EBITDA reached $1.1 billion at a margin of 25.9%, while net income according to EDGAR was approximately $878 million and earnings per share were $7.16. The results benefited from strong U.S. demand, continued double-digit B2B growth, improved marketing returns, and expense discipline.

What is Expedia's guidance for fiscal 2026?

On August 5, 2026, management raised the gross bookings range to $129.5–$130.8 billion, representing annual growth of between 8% and 9%. It raised the revenue range to $16.05–$16.22 billion, representing growth of between 9% and 10%, assuming that currency contributes approximately one percentage point to bookings growth and two points to revenue growth. It also expects the adjusted EBITDA margin to expand by 150–175 basis points compared with fiscal 2025.

Why is the B2B business important to EXPE shares?

In fiscal Q2 2026, the B2B business completed twenty consecutive quarters of double-digit growth and serves more than 70,000 partners. Approximately two-thirds of this business comes from outside the United States, giving Expedia a different geographic mix from the consumer business, approximately two-thirds of which is concentrated in the U.S. market. The company is seeking to expand the platform from an accommodation-focused business into an integrated travel store through Tiqets and its intention, announced in May 2026, to acquire CarTrawler, but these investments are pressuring segment margins during the execution period.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

The B2B platform faces ongoing competition, and some partner relationships are non-exclusive, requiring Expedia to maintain the quality of its inventory, technology, and service every day. Investment in expanding business lines, integrating Tiqets, and the partner mix also pressured B2B costs and margins in fiscal Q2 2026.
  • −Artificial intelligence platforms and search engines may change travel discovery paths and customer acquisition costs. Management described SEO as weak despite its stability over several quarters and emphasized that algorithms and search pages are changing at a faster pace, while AEO traffic remained small through fiscal Q2 2026.
  • −The company expects margin expansion to slow in fiscal Q3 2026 due to the comparison against cost-reduction measures implemented in the prior year, investment in B2B growth, and an unfavorable net currency impact. The expected adjusted EBITDA margin range is 32.5%–32.8%.
  • −Fiscal Q3 2026 guidance indicates that bookings growth will slow to 5%–7% and revenue growth to 5%–8%, compared with growth of 12% and 14%, respectively, in fiscal Q2 2026, due to difficult comparisons and an expected one-percentage-point negative currency impact on bookings.
  • −European demand, particularly outbound travel from Europe, remained under pressure in fiscal Q2 2026 due to macroeconomic conditions and reduced airline capacity. The effects of the conflict in the Middle East on jet fuel could also raise ticket prices and affect demand.
  • −Insider activity registered a strong_sell signal, with net sales of $5.2 million during the three months ended August 24, 2026, comprising seven sales and no purchases. However, it is a weak trading signal on its own because these sales may have been prearranged, and the provided data offers no details establishing otherwise.
  • How does Expedia use artificial intelligence in its products?

    The company uses artificial intelligence to improve result rankings, recommendations, and personalization across Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo, and it launched natural-language search on the Vrbo homepage and updated Property Expert and AI Compare. Management said on August 5, 2026, that these conversational tools collect more than 60% more information about traveler intent, but they had not generated a direct increase in conversion through fiscal Q2 2026. The company also announced the acquisition of Layla and expanded its experiments with ChatGPT and new Google services, while AEO traffic remained small despite being one of its fastest-growing channels.

    What are the main risks to EXPE's growth in fiscal Q3 2026?

    Management expects bookings to grow by 5%–7% to $32.2–$32.8 billion and revenue to grow by 5%–8% to $4.65–$4.75 billion, representing a slowdown from fiscal Q2 2026. It attributes this to difficult comparisons and an expected one-percentage-point negative currency impact on bookings, while pressure on outbound European travel continues. It also expects margin expansion to slow due to B2B investments, the fading effect of some previous cost reductions, and an unfavorable net currency impact.

    How does Expedia allocate cash to shareholders and investment?

    Free cash flow reached $4.5 billion during the last 12 months through fiscal Q2 2026. The company repurchased approximately 880,000 shares for $200 million during the quarter at an average execution price of $226 per share, and year-to-date repurchases reached $900 million. Management defines its capital priorities as organic investment, disciplined acquisitions that support the strategy, dividends, and selective share repurchases.