EL7.AI
Strategy BuilderCOT DataAdvanced NewsResearchNewEarnings CalendarEconomic Calendar
We use cookiesPrivacy Policy
EL7.AIEL7.AI

AI Financial Intelligence
Professional analysis of central bank decisions

© 2026 EL7.AI. All rights reserved.

Markets

  • News
  • Forex
  • Stocks
  • Crypto
  • Gold
  • Commodities
  • Indices
  • ETFs

Analysis

  • Fed
  • ECB
  • BLS
  • COT
  • Economic Calendar

Learn

  • Service Guide
  • Oil

Company

  • About
  • Contact
  • Data Methodology
  • AI Disclosure
  • Pricing
  • Enterprise
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Security
  • WhatsApp
Status data is currently unavailable

The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Home
Stocks
Essex Property Trust, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall64
Balanced — near the middle of the marketHigh FlyerF 7/9Better than 64% of Market stocks, per EL7's modelUnsustainable dividend (payout > 100%)
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
24
42.4x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
31
4.7%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
78
5.3%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
47
5.1x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
66
3.76%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
67
4.8%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
86
8▲3Top tier
ESS

ESS Essex Property Trust, Inc.

Essex Property Trust, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
272.91
▲ ⁦+0.57%⁩ (+1.54)
Market Cap$17.5B
Beta0.71
52w Low52w High
238.46300.64
Last Week
⁦-1.58%⁩
Last Month
⁦-3.38%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-1.76%⁩
Last Year
⁦+4.72%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$273
Analyst target · 4 analysts
$300
⁦+10%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$286–$352⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$181
⁦-34%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$181–$300⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

Compare in the screener
Premium content

Get Your Premium Account Now

  • Stock Deep Analysis
  • The Advanced News Platform
Recommended
Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 4 analysts setting price target
$304.98
⁦+11.8%⁩
Current Price $272.91·Median $299.50
Low
$286.00
High
$352.00
Current price
$272.91
Average target
$304.98
Street summary

Essex Property Trust (ESS) Price Target Analysis

Bullish tilt

ESS price targets have seen a notable increase over the past thirty days, with the average price target rising by 3.44% to reach $306.27, despite a decrease in the number of analysts participating in the consensus from 6 to 4. The dispersion in estimates shows a gap between the high ($352) and the low ($286); however, the current stock price ($283.21) is still trading below the lowest announced price target, reflecting a unified positive outlook on the stock's fair value.

As of 2026-08-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-0.4%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.54
Buy
Analyst coverage
26
Buy conviction
42%
Mixed
Target dispersion
24%
Analyst ratings over time26 analysts rating
6
5
13
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.30 → 3.54
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-03
    Cantor Fitzgerald
    Overweight
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-07-31
    Citigroup
    BuyOutperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-30
    Evercore ISI Group
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    42.44x
    5.03x40.26x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    44.57x
    5.89x47.13x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    19.37x
    3.68x29.40x
    Above average
  • FCF Yield
    5.9%
    -23.1%16.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    4.7%
    -14.0%37.7%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -48.4%
    -121.8%181.8%
    Below average
  • Gross Margin
    70.1%
    -5.0%81.8%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    5.3%
    -4.2%9.5%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    5.10x
    1.55x12.39x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    3.8%
    0.6%15.6%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    159.7%
    31.2%370.0%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

Essex Property Trust focuses on owning and operating multifamily residential communities in West Coast markets, generating its core revenue from rents, occupancy, and property-related income. It also deploys capital selectively into acquisitions, developments, preferred equity investments, and joint ventures, evaluating opportunities based on their impact on growth, net asset value, and funds from operations per share. The portfolio is geographically concentrated; Southern California represents 40% of its exposure, while Southern California and Seattle together represent 60%, making differences in rental trends across regions a critical factor in results.

In Q2 of fiscal 2026, revenue reached $489.0 million, compared with $484.8 million in Q1 of fiscal 2026, while gross profit was $345.7 million, representing a calculated gross margin of approximately 70.7%. Net income was $62.5 million, or approximately 12.8% of revenue, compared with $106.2 million in the previous quarter, while EDGAR data showed earnings per share of $0.97. On the core funds from operations measure used to assess portfolio performance, the company generated $4.08 per share, exceeding the midpoint of its guidance range by $0.10.

The operating mix varied clearly in Q2 of fiscal 2026: Northern California led performance with 6.5% blended rent growth and strong occupancy, Seattle recorded growth of 2.6%, including 3.2% in East Side versus 1% in the urban core, while Southern California achieved growth of 1.4% with occupancy above 95%. Within Southern California, Orange County led performance and San Diego began to improve after absorbing a substantial portion of supply, while Los Angeles remained the weakest area, with economic occupancy between 93% and 94%.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Essex Property Trust raised the midpoint of its core funds from operations per share outlook for fiscal 2026 by $0.20, or 1.3%, after its Q2 fiscal 2026 result exceeded the guidance midpoint by $0.10; the published full-year outlook also set a range of $16.030 to $16.250 per share.
  • The company raised the midpoint of its same-property net operating income growth forecast by 70 basis points to 2.8%, supported by a 40-basis-point improvement in expected revenue growth and a 25-basis-point reduction in expected operating expense growth. Within the revenue improvement, scheduled rent and other income each added 15 basis points, while higher occupancy added 10 basis points.
  • Northern California is driving pricing strength with 6.5% blended rent growth in Q2 of fiscal 2026, supported by limited unit deliveries, technology-sector investment, and migration trends into the Bay Area. Management estimated the region's loss-to-lease at approximately 6%, providing additional scope to capture market growth as leases renew, although AB 1482 extends the period required to realize this impact.
  • Blended rent growth in Seattle improved from 1.4% in March 2026 to 2.8% in June 2026, with the quarter recording growth of 2.6% after a sequential improvement of 340 basis points. East Side is benefiting from 3.2% growth and declining supply, but management explained that rents reached their seasonal peak in early July 2026 and began slowing afterward.
  • The balance sheet supports the ability to fund obligations and opportunities, with net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization at 5.4 times, available liquidity exceeding $1 billion, and limited debt maturities during the twelve months following the call dated July 30, 2026. In development, the South San Francisco project was ahead of schedule and exceeding initial underwriting assumptions, while the company targets a yield spread of between 100 and 150 basis points above acquisition yields on developments.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The company combines a higher fiscal 2026 outlook with actual operating improvement; same-property growth contributed $0.12 of the annual increase in core funds from operations guidance, rather than the increase relying entirely on non-operating items.
  • +Northern California provides a strong and clearly defined growth driver, with 6.5% blended rent growth, an approximately 6% gap between current rents and market rents, and continued leasing momentum beyond the usual seasonal pattern. The prior year's acquisitions in the region also performed better than planned and contributed $0.03 to the quarterly result's outperformance versus guidance.
  • +The supply-and-demand balance is improving across the company's markets; management stated that new unit deliveries are declining in most West Coast markets and that 2027 supply will be lower than 2026. This may reduce the level of job growth required to absorb new units, particularly in Seattle.
  • +Liquidity exceeding $1 billion, limited maturities, and net debt at 5.4 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization provide flexibility to fund obligations or pursue new opportunities. The sale of a joint venture asset in San Jose at a capitalization rate below 4.5% also demonstrated continued institutional investor interest in the region's assets.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

Analyst consensus on ESS is neutral, with an average target of $305.91 and a wide range between $286 and $352. The average target is only approximately 0.8% above the 52-week range high of $303.35, while the range low is $238.46; therefore, the targets reflect a combination of optimism about the higher fiscal 2026 guidance and caution regarding slowing rents and uneven regional performance.

HoldAnalyst target: $305.91(+12.1%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove Essex Property Trust to raise its fiscal 2026 outlook?

Core funds from operations in Q2 of fiscal 2026 exceeded the midpoint of the guidance range by $0.10 per share, driven primarily by improved operations. The company raised the midpoint of its same-property net operating income growth forecast by 70 basis points to 2.8% and increased the midpoint of its annual core funds from operations guidance by $0.20. Of the annual increase, $0.12 came from same-property performance, while Northern California acquisition outperformance contributed to the remainder. The published full-year outlook set a range of $16.030 to $16.250 per share.

Why is Northern California outperforming the rest of the ESS portfolio?

Northern California achieved blended rent growth of 6.5% in Q2 of fiscal 2026 with strong occupancy. Management attributed this to limited unit deliveries, technology-sector investment in the Bay Area, and an influx of talent and entrepreneurs into the region. The company estimated the loss-to-lease at approximately 6% and said leasing momentum had not yet reached its seasonal peak as of July 30, 2026. By comparison, Seattle recorded growth of 2.6% and Southern California recorded growth of 1.4%.

Is Essex Property Trust's Seattle performance improving?
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −Results depend heavily on West Coast markets and their pace of employment growth; Southern California represents 40% of the company's exposure but recorded blended rent growth of only 1.4% in Q2 of fiscal 2026. Los Angeles remains the weakest area, with economic occupancy between 93% and 94%, making economic and job-growth slowdowns a direct risk to portfolio growth.
  • −Management expects blended rent growth to slow from 2.6% in the first half of fiscal 2026 to approximately 2.4% in the second half, resulting in a full-year average of 2.5%. Seattle also reached its seasonal peak in early July 2026, while Southern California's trajectory remained nearly flat, so Northern California's momentum may not persist strongly enough to offset moderation in the other two regions.
  • −The company expects core funds from operations to decline to $3.99 per share in Q3 of fiscal 2026, a sequential decrease of $0.09, due to seasonal increases in utilities and property taxes in California and higher controllable spending. Part of the Q2 outperformance also came from $0.03 of property tax savings resulting from Prop 8 appeals, which management described as nonrecurring.
  • −AB 1482 limits the speed at which market rent growth in California can be converted into actual revenue, particularly in Northern California, where tenant retention rates are high. Management acknowledged that this regulation extends the period required to capture the loss-to-lease even with an approximately 6% gap to market rents in the region.
  • −The company settled a separate dispute that had lasted nearly four years and described its size as unusual for Essex, but the settlement was still subject to court approval on July 30, 2026. Management declined to provide additional details, limiting the ability to assess the final impact despite stating that there were no other matters of similar size.
  • −The valuation carries some risk of disappointment because analyst consensus is neutral despite the company's higher fiscal 2026 guidance. The average target is $305.91, only slightly above the 52-week range high of $303.35, while the wide target range extends from $286 to $352, reflecting meaningful differences in estimates of growth strength.

Blended rent growth in Seattle turned positive in March 2026 at 1.4%, then increased to 2.8% in June 2026. Growth in Q2 of fiscal 2026 was approximately 2.6%, with stronger performance in East Side at 3.2% compared with 1% in the urban core. Management sees future support from lower supply and announced office expansions by prominent companies, but explained that hiring resulting from those expansions will take time. Market rents also reached their seasonal peak in early July 2026 and began slowing afterward.

What is the main operating weakness in the ESS portfolio?

The clearest weakness is Southern California, which represents 40% of the company's exposure and recorded blended rent growth of 1.4% in Q2 of fiscal 2026. Regional occupancy remained above 95%, but Los Angeles lagged with economic occupancy ranging between 93% and 94%. Orange County led the region, while San Diego began improving after absorbing a substantial portion of supply. Management expects slow economic and job growth to keep the region's performance moderate during the second half of fiscal 2026.

What do Essex Property Trust's liquidity and leverage look like?

Net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization was 5.4 times on July 30, 2026. Available liquidity exceeded $1 billion, with limited debt maturities during the twelve months following that date and access to multiple funding sources. Management said these resources were sufficient to fund obligations and evaluate acquisitions, developments, and other investments. In the preferred equity book, the company indicated that an operating book value of approximately $100 million was an appropriate assumption unless it completed additional investments.

How do analysts value ESS relative to its annual range?

Analyst consensus on ESS is neutral, with an average price target of $305.91. Targets range from $286 to $352, a $66 difference between the endpoints, indicating clear variation in analyst estimates. The 52-week range extends from $238.46 to $303.35, and the average target is slightly above its high. This valuation reflects the higher fiscal 2026 guidance but balances it against expected rent deceleration and uneven results across Northern California, Seattle, and Southern California.