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Stocks
Essent Group Ltd.
ESNT

ESNT Essent Group Ltd.

Essent Group Ltd. · NYSE
Market Closed
68.18
▼ ⁦-0.23%⁩ (-0.16)
Market Cap$6.3B
Beta0.76
52w Low52w High
55.3470.37
Last Week
⁦-1.15%⁩
Last Month
⁦-0.79%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+16.87%⁩
Last Year
⁦+8.15%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall90
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 5/9Better than 90% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
75
9.5x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
37
4.3%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
71
——Top tier
▸
Safety
86
——Top tier
▸
Capital Return
74
1.94%▼2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
79
3.9%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
35
5▲3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$68
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$68
⁦-0%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$62–$80⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$142
⁦+108%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$68–$142⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$70.00
⁦+2.7%⁩
Current Price $68.18·Median $68.00
Low
$62.00
High
$80.00
Current price
$68.18
Average target
$70.00
Street summary

Essent Group (ESNT) Price Target Analysis

Bullish tilt

Essent Group stock has seen an improvement in its average price target over the past thirty days, with the consensus rising from $65 to $70, an increase of 7.69%, coinciding with a new analyst initiating coverage on the stock. The stock is currently trading at $69.43, a level very close to the average price target, suggesting that the stock has already priced in most short-term positive expectations, with a notable dispersion in estimates ranging from $62 to $80.

As of 2026-08-17
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.57
Buy
Analyst coverage
7
Buy conviction
43%
Mixed
Target dispersion
26%
Analyst ratings over time7 analysts rating
1
2
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.38 → 3.57
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-10
    Roth MKM
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-06-03
    Roth MKM
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-05-22
    RBC Capital
    OutperformSector Perform· $68.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    9.48x
    3.16x25.26x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    9.30x
    2.76x22.06x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    —
    —
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    4.3%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    4.7%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    1.9%
    0.6%9.0%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    18.2%
    9.8%97.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-07 data

Company Overview

Essent Group Ltd. operates in private mortgage insurance, reinsurance, and title insurance, alongside managing an investment portfolio. The primary earnings driver comes from premiums on its mortgage insurance portfolio, which totaled $249.7 billion of insurance in force as of June 30, 2026, while the company uses a “buy, manage, and distribute” model to manage risk and transfer part of it to reinsurers; 97% of insurance in force was covered by reinsurance protection. The company also generates income from mortgage and property and casualty reinsurance and from its $6.6 billion of investments, while the title insurance business remained a long-term investment that management does not expect to have a material near-term impact on earnings.

In Q2 FY2026, revenue was $362.7 million and net income was $189.7 million, equivalent to a calculated net income margin of approximately 52.3%. Diluted earnings per share were $2.08, and annualized return on average equity was 13.4%. Compared with Q1 FY2026, revenue increased by approximately 7.9% from $336.1 million, net income rose by approximately 10.4% from $171.8 million, and earnings per share increased from $1.82. Earnings per share also exceeded the $1.93 recorded in Q2 FY2025.

Within the Q2 FY2026 results mix, mortgage insurance generated $216 million of earned premiums at an average base premium yield of 40 basis points, while net investment income was $61.6 million, including $19.4 million from other invested assets. In the first half of FY2026, net reinsurance premiums written surged to $249 million from $31 million in the comparable period, and net premiums earned increased to $73 million from $30 million, but the property and casualty business’s contribution to underwriting income was not yet material. Net income in FY2025 was approximately $690 million on revenue of $1.3 billion and earnings per share of $6.90.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The supportive credit environment reinforced portfolio quality as of June 30, 2026; the weighted average credit score was 747, the average original loan-to-value ratio was 93%, and the delinquency rate remained approximately stable quarter over quarter at 2.53%.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Mortgage insurance policy persistency was 84% as of June 30, 2026, with approximately half of the in-force portfolio carrying mortgage rates of no more than 5.5%, supporting longer premium retention despite weak new mortgage originations.
  • Management expects approximately $320 million of written premiums for the property and casualty reinsurance business during FY2026, with approximately half expected to be earned during the year at a combined ratio in the high-90% range; this expansion is gradually shifting the reinsurance segment’s mix away from mortgage reinsurance alone.
  • Net investment income in Q2 FY2026 increased by 4% quarter over quarter to $61.6 million as the portfolio yield improved to 4.9% on an annualized basis. Other invested assets totaled approximately $450 million, or 7% of the total portfolio, and generated $19.4 million of income during the quarter.
  • Operating cash flow of $834 million during the twelve months ended June 30, 2026 provided substantial capacity for capital returns; Essent repurchased approximately 6 million shares for about $350 million through July 31, 2026, and the board approved a dividend of $0.35 per share for Q3 FY2026.
  • The company increased insurance premiums associated with new insurance written by 10% during Q2 FY2026, benefiting from selectively targeting segments with relatively higher debt-to-income or loan-to-value ratios, where competition is lower and pricing power is stronger, according to management.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case5 pts

    • +Core earnings strength is supported by a $249.7 billion mortgage insurance portfolio, an 84% persistency rate, and a base premium yield of 40 basis points in Q2 FY2026.
    • +The balance sheet provides a tangible margin of safety; GAAP equity totaled $5.7 billion, holding-company liquidity and investments were $1.1 billion, and the private mortgage insurer eligibility requirements sufficiency ratio was 172%, with $1.5 billion of excess available assets.
    • +Risk transfer limits potential maximum losses, as 97% of insurance in force was protected by reinsurance, and the company also has $1 billion of excess-of-loss reinsurance coverage.
    • +Book value per share, including dividends, grew by approximately 13% during the year ended June 30, 2026, and book value per share reached $63.10; the repurchase of 3.2 million shares for $191 million during the quarter supports this focus on per-share value growth.
    • +The expansion of reinsurance and the other invested assets portfolio provides two additional avenues for deploying capital; net reinsurance premiums written increased to $249 million in the first half of FY2026, while strategic investments totaled approximately $450 million.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Housing affordability remains the biggest obstacle to growth in the core business; management said growth in the mortgage insurance portfolio would remain stalled, and insurance in force increased by only 1.2% year over year to $249.7 billion as of June 30, 2026.
    • −Earnings remain heavily dependent on mortgage insurance and mortgage risk sharing; management does not expect a material near-term impact from title insurance, while the property and casualty business’s contribution to reinsurance underwriting income was not material in Q2 FY2026.
    • −The expansion of property and casualty reinsurance carries execution and underwriting risks different from those of the core business; the reinsurance segment’s combined ratio increased to 77.9% in Q2 FY2026 from 69.6% in the previous quarter, and management expects a combined ratio in the high-90% range for property and casualty business earned during the year.
    • −Mortgage insurance premium yield could face gradual pressure; the average base premium yield declined by one basis point quarter over quarter to 40 basis points, and management said it could decline slightly over the next two years as the mix of new business changes and the portfolio turns over.
    • −A growing portion of investment income depends on volatile fair-value adjustments; income from other invested assets increased to $19.4 million in Q2 FY2026 from $10.2 million in the previous quarter, and the company attributed the increase primarily to favorable fair-value adjustments that may vary from period to period.
    • −Insider transactions showed a strong selling signal during the three months ended August 24, 2026, with net sales of $13.7 million and 11 sales with no purchases. This remains a weaker trading signal than the business and earnings risks because insider sales may be prearranged, and the context did not indicate otherwise.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $70, a high of $80, and a low of $62; the average is very close to the top of the 52-week range of $70.37, while the bottom of the range is $55.34. The spread of targets between $62 and $80 reflects differing assessments of the impact of continued housing affordability weakness versus strong cash flows and credit quality, and the available data do not provide a valid price-to-earnings ratio for an additional comparison.

    BuyAnalyst target: $70(+2.7%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is the main source of Essent Group’s earnings?

    Private mortgage insurance is the core business, with $249.7 billion of insurance in force as of June 30, 2026. This business generated $216 million of earned premiums during Q2 FY2026, at an average base premium yield of 40 basis points. Reinsurance and investments add other sources of income, while management does not expect a material near-term impact from the title insurance business.

    How were ESNT’s results in Q2 FY2026?

    Revenue was $362.7 million and net income was $189.7 million, compared with revenue of $336.1 million and net income of $171.8 million in Q1 FY2026. Diluted earnings per share were $2.08, compared with $1.82 in the previous quarter and $1.93 in Q2 FY2025. Annualized return on average equity was 13.4%.

    Is the quality of Essent’s mortgage insurance portfolio stable?

    The delinquency rate was 2.53% as of June 30, 2026 and remained without material change compared with the end of March 2026. The portfolio’s weighted average credit score was 747, with a weighted average original loan-to-value ratio of 93%. In addition, 97% of insurance in force was covered by reinsurance protection, and management believes accumulated home equity may limit ultimate claims.

    Why is the mortgage insurance portfolio not growing faster?

    Management said on August 7, 2026 that weak housing affordability is pressuring mortgage origination volumes and keeping portfolio growth stalled. Insurance in force increased by only 1.2% year over year, from $246.8 billion as of June 30, 2025 to $249.7 billion as of June 30, 2026. In contrast, higher interest rates support policy persistency at 84% because approximately half of the portfolio carries mortgage rates of no more than 5.5%.

    How important is property and casualty reinsurance to Essent’s growth?

    Net reinsurance premiums written increased to $249 million in the first half of FY2026, compared with $31 million in the comparable period of FY2025. Management expects approximately $320 million of written premiums for this business during FY2026, with approximately half earned during the year and a combined ratio in the high-90% range. However, the property and casualty business’s contribution to underwriting income was not material in Q2 FY2026, and segment earnings remained driven primarily by mortgage risk sharing.

    How does Essent return capital to shareholders?

    The company repurchased approximately 6 million shares for about $350 million from the beginning of FY2026 through July 31, 2026. In Q2 FY2026 alone, it purchased 3.2 million shares for $191 million and paid total cash dividends of $31.6 million. The board also approved a regular dividend of $0.35 per share for Q3 FY2026, supported by operating cash flow of $834 million during the twelve months ended June 30, 2026.