| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 81 | 11.9x | 17.8x | Top tier | |
Growth | 96 | 95.2% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 75 | 18.4% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 78 | 0.8x | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 83 | — | 2.12% | Top tier | |
Momentum | 84 | 124.1% | 2.9% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 83 | 8 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Ero Copper Corp. produces copper and gold through three principal operations: Caraiba, Tucuma, and Xavantina, while developing Furnas as an additional growth hub. Its copper business comes from Caraiba and Tucuma, while Xavantina combines mine-produced gold with gold recovered from historical concentrates; in Q2 fiscal 2026, the copper operations produced a combined 17,315 tonnes, comprising 8,351 tonnes at Caraiba and 8,964 tonnes at Tucuma, while Xavantina's total gold production exceeded 20 thousand ounces.
In Q2 fiscal 2026, revenue reached $284.3 million, up 8% from the previous quarter, supported by copper production, metal prices, and a 65% increase in gold sales. Adjusted EBITDA reached $144 million, representing a calculated margin of approximately 50.7% of revenue, while cash flow from operations reached $138 million, up approximately 50% quarter over quarter. Operationally, Xavantina produced approximately 8,693 ounces of mine-produced gold, supplemented by 11,860 ounces recovered from historical concentrates, highlighting the contribution of two distinct sources within the gold business.
For fiscal 2025, revenue rose to $785.8 million from $470.3 million in fiscal 2024, while gross profit increased to $344.6 million from $180.6 million. The calculated gross margin improved to approximately 43.9% from 38.4%, and net income shifted from a loss of $67.8 million to a profit of $266.9 million, while earnings per share increased from negative $0.66 to $2.53.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The consensus analyst rating for the stock is “Buy,” with an average price target of $31 and identical high and low targets of $31; this uniformity makes the consensus range unusually narrow and limits the diversity of available signals. The consensus target is approximately 24% below the 52-week range high of $40.83, while the annual range extends to a low of $13.91, reflecting a substantial repricing of the stock alongside the shift in fiscal 2025 net results to profitability, improved cash flows, and deleveraging, balanced against Xavantina cost, currency, and project execution risks.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Ero Copper's revenue in Q2 fiscal 2026 reached approximately $284.3 million, up 8% from the previous quarter. The company attributed the performance to copper production, metal prices, and a 65% quarter-over-quarter increase in gold sales. Adjusted EBITDA reached $144 million, while cash flow from operations reached $138 million. Caraiba and Tucuma also produced a combined 17,315 tonnes of copper during the period.
Net debt declined by $38 million during Q2 fiscal 2026 to approximately $453 million. With adjusted EBITDA for the last 12 months reaching $533 million, the ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA fell to approximately 0.8 times, compared with a peak of 2.6 times at the beginning of 2025. The company repaid an additional $25 million on the credit facility in July 2026, bringing total payments during fiscal 2026 to approximately $60 million. Management stated that $95 million remains under its plan to repay the facility before moving to the next phase of its capital allocation priorities.
Xavantina's total gold production exceeded 20 thousand ounces in Q2 fiscal 2026, up 170% from the previous quarter. This included 8,693 ounces of mine-produced gold at a C1 cost of $1,586 per ounce and 11,860 ounces from historical concentrates at a cost of $633 per ounce. The mobile filter press and industrial dryer supported concentrate production of more than 7,000 ounces in each of June and July 2026. In contrast, the company expects annual mine-produced gold output to be at the low end of guidance, with approximately 65% concentrated in the second half of fiscal 2026.
Tucuma plant throughput increased 27% quarter over quarter in Q2 fiscal 2026, helping raise copper production 6% to 8,964 tonnes despite the planned decline in grades. The expansion of the three existing filter presses added approximately 8% to tailings filtration capacity. The plant maintained throughput of between 250 thousand and 260 thousand tonnes per month during the second half of the quarter and through July 2026. According to the announced schedule, three modular filters will arrive during Q3 fiscal 2026 and be commissioned in Q4 to support higher throughput by the end of 2026.
Management views Furnas as the next principal growth hub within Ero Copper's portfolio. The June 2026 update showed continued high-grade mineralization at depth and along strike, while the 45 thousand-meter Phase III drilling program is underway. The company is targeting completion of a total of 90 thousand meters of drilling between October 2024 and the end of 2026. It is also working to publish a pre-feasibility study in 2027, but the project's future contribution depends on the drilling and study results.
The strength of the Brazilian real and inflation in fuel, consumables, transportation, and freight affect reported costs. The company estimated a potential additional impact of approximately $0.10 per pound on copper C1 cost and $100 per ounce on mine-produced gold C1 cost if the assumed conditions persist through the end of fiscal 2026. The hedging program protects approximately 70% of annual operating and capital costs at an average floor of 5.54 reais per dollar and generated realized gains of $20 million in the first half. However, hedging gains are not included in reported C1 costs, while currency and inflation could add $20 million to $25 million to recorded capital expenditures.
