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Home
Stocks
Equinor ASA
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall99
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 5/9Better than 99% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
91
12.0x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
32
5.5%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
80
10.4%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
75
0.6x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
84
3.38%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
98
63.5%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
89
13▲3Top tier
EQNR

EQNR Equinor ASA

Equinor ASA · NYSE
Market Closed
44.80
▼ ⁦-0.69%⁩ (-0.31)
Market Cap$107.8B
Beta-0.73
52w Low52w High
22.2645.55
Last Week
⁦+1.29%⁩
Last Month
⁦+9.29%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+22.44%⁩
Last Year
⁦+84.51%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$45
Analyst target · 6 analysts
$37
⁦-19%⁩
See it slightly overvalued
Range ⁦$37–$37⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$71
⁦+58%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦4⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$37–$71⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target
$36.50
⁦-18.5%⁩
Current Price $44.80·Median $36.50
Low
$36.50
High
$36.50
Street summary

Analysis of EQNR stock price targets

Bearish tilt

The analyst consensus settles on a price target of $36.5, which is about 10.4% lower than the current stock price of $40.73, with no dispersion among the six registered analysts as their high and low targets matched. These targets have not seen any adjustment over the past thirty days, indicating a technical conviction that the current price has exceeded the fair value estimated by analysts.

As of 2026-07-30
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 2.33
Sell
Analyst coverage
6
Buy conviction
0%
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time6 analysts rating
4
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months2.67 → 2.33
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-07-23
    RBC Capital
    UnderperformSector Perform
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-07-01
    Nordea
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-06-05
    TD Cowen
    Hold
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    11.98x
    3.56x28.47x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    10.47x
    3.36x26.89x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    3.10x
    2.12x16.98x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    8.8%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    5.5%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    25.1%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    51.8%
    7.8%72.1%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    10.4%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.63x
    0.40x3.19x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    3.4%
    0.4%10.1%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    40.5%
    11.9%109.0%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-22 data

Company Overview

Equinor ASA produces, markets, and trades oil and gas, with a principal operating base on the Norwegian continental shelf and an international portfolio spanning the United States, Brazil, Angola, and the United Kingdom. The company generates additional income from refining and trading crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and power through its MMP segment, alongside electricity generation from assets such as Dogger Bank and onshore assets; electricity production reached 1.2 terawatt-hours in Q2 FY2026. The company also uses asset sales, stake swaps, and acquisitions to improve portfolio quality and link gas production to end demand, including the announced acquisition of the U.S. Lackawanna power plant for $940 million on August 18, 2026.

In Q2 FY2026, Equinor produced approximately 2.165 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 3% year over year, and recorded adjusted operating income before tax of $11.5 billion, IFRS net income of $4.8 billion, and adjusted earnings per share of $1.33. Exploration and Production Norway generated adjusted operating income before tax of $9.2 billion and $2.1 billion after tax, while MMP income before tax reached $777 million versus a normal guidance level of $400 million for the quarter, supported by crude trading and the Mongstad refinery. Cash flow from operations before tax was $14.8 billion, organic capital expenditure was $3.4 billion, and net cash flow before distributions was $5.5 billion.

FY2025 results show a weaker picture than the latest quarter's earnings despite higher revenue: revenue reached $106.5 billion versus $103.8 billion in FY2024, but gross profit declined to $51.3 billion from $53.7 billion, net income fell to $5.1 billion from $8.8 billion, and earnings per share dropped to $1.94 from $3.11. Based on the published figures, gross margin contracted to approximately 48.2% in FY2025 from 51.7% in FY2024, illustrating earnings sensitivity to prices and the operating mix even when nominal revenue grows.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Equinor is targeting an additional 150 thousand barrels per day of production by 2030, a 30% increase in cash flow from operations, a 15% return on capital employed, and free cash flow exceeding $40 billion through 2030, while reducing its post-dividend breakeven price to $50 per barrel.
  • The operational start-up of new fields supports the 3% production growth target for FY2026; production grew 6% during the first half of FY2026, with Johan Castberg, Halten East, Verdande, Eirin, Symra, and Bacalhau contributing to the increase. Management expects Bacalhau to reach plateau production by the end of 2026, after bringing three production wells and two gas injection wells online and working to complete the fourth production well.
  • On August 24, 2026, Uniper signed an agreement to receive more than 30 terawatt-hours of Equinor gas annually starting in 2027 for 15 years, providing the company with a long-term contract with a major European distributor. Equinor also benefits from its low gas cost of approximately $2 per million British thermal units and from 70% of its European gas sales being exposed to day-ahead prices and 30% to month-ahead prices, which increases its ability to benefit from price volatility but also raises earnings volatility.
  • On August 26, 2026, Equinor announced a plan to increase oil and gas production outside Norway by 27% by 2030, with growth focused on the United States, Brazil, and Angola following asset disposals in Azerbaijan and Nigeria. This complements the final investment decision on Greater PAJ in Angola, where the company expects cash flow from operations exceeding $50 per barrel and 80% growth in cash flow from its international exploration and production business through 2030.
  • The board raised the FY2026 share buyback program from $1.5 billion to $3 billion and approved an ordinary quarterly cash dividend of $0.39 per share and a buyback tranche of up to $1.125 billion including the state's share. At the end of Q2 FY2026, the company held approximately $24 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and its net debt ratio declined to 10.4%, but management confirmed that it does not plan to increase buybacks above $3 billion during FY2026.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Equinor combines actual production growth of 3% in Q2 FY2026 with a multi-project plan through 2030 that includes Bacalhau, Raia, Sparta, Rosebank, Jekta, and Greater PAJ, in addition to 65 tie-in and development projects near infrastructure on the Norwegian continental shelf.
  • +The balance sheet provides a tangible margin of safety, with approximately $24 billion in cash and cash equivalents and a net debt ratio of 10.4% in Q2 FY2026, while cash flow from operations after tax reached $13.7 billion during the first half of FY2026.
  • +The marketing and refining portfolio demonstrates an ability to capture value beyond crude oil and gas production; MMP generated income before tax of $777 million in Q2 FY2026, versus normal guidance of $400 million, supported by crude trading, Mongstad margins, and liquefied natural gas performance.
  • +The Uniper agreement, which begins in 2027 and runs for 15 years, and the acquisition of the Lackawanna power plant for $940 million could expand distribution channels for Equinor gas and link the portfolio to European gas supply and electricity generation in the U.S. PJM market.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus is neutral, with an average price target of $36.5 and identical high and low targets of $36.5; this target lies between the 52-week range boundaries of $22.26 and $43.46, but is approximately 16% below the top of the range. No price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data, so the strength of Q2 FY2026 results and the growth plan through 2030 should be weighed against the approximately 42% decline in FY2025 net income and the limited dispersion in analyst estimates.

HoldAnalyst target: $36.5(-18.5%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove EQNR's Q2 FY2026 results?

Equinor produced approximately 2.165 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q2 FY2026, up 3% year over year, with contributions from Eirin, Symra, Johan Castberg, and Bacalhau. The company recorded adjusted operating income before tax of $11.5 billion, IFRS net income of $4.8 billion, and adjusted earnings per share of $1.33. The MMP segment also generated income before tax of $777 million, driven by crude trading, the Mongstad refinery, and higher refining margins. Cash flow from operations before tax was $14.8 billion versus organic capital expenditure of $3.4 billion.

Can Equinor achieve its FY2026 production growth target?

Management maintained its production growth target at 3% for FY2026 after achieving 6% growth during the first half of FY2026. It explained that growth was planned to be concentrated in the first half due to the ramp-up of Bacalhau and Johan Castberg and the start-up of new fields, and therefore did not raise annual guidance. Bacalhau is expected to reach plateau production by the end of 2026, while Johan Castberg resumed production on July 13, 2026. Conversely, the Johan Castberg shutdown will reduce Equinor's Q3 FY2026 production by approximately 14 thousand barrels per day, alongside the impact of planned maintenance.

How does Equinor benefit from the European gas market?
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Annual earnings quality deteriorated in FY2025 despite revenue growth; net income declined by approximately 42% to $5.1 billion from $8.8 billion in FY2024, earnings per share fell to $1.94 from $3.11, and gross profit contracted to $51.3 billion from $53.7 billion.
  • −The company expects FY2026 production growth to remain at 3% despite 6% growth in the first half, implying a clear slowdown in the second half as planned due to project start-up timing and maintenance work. The Johan Castberg shutdown related to turbine issues could also reduce Equinor's Q3 FY2026 production by approximately 14 thousand barrels per day, with management acknowledging that operational issues may emerge during the new field's stabilization phase.
  • −MMP's elevated results depend on conditions that management does not consider normal; the segment generated income before tax of $777 million in Q2 FY2026, but normal guidance remained at $400 million per quarter, and management explained that the crude trading contribution was higher than should be expected and that segment results will fluctuate as arbitrage opportunities and refining margins decline.
  • −The project portfolio faces execution and capital cost inflation risks, particularly Bay du Nord, which is estimated to cost between $9 billion and $10 billion and for which the company is working to bring in another partner before the targeted investment decision in 2027. The Roncador field, which Equinor does not operate, has also experienced operational issues for three consecutive quarters, while high-impact exploration wells offer greater opportunities but higher risks, according to management.
  • −Regulatory exposure emerged in Brazil on August 4, 2026, when Petrobras suspended studies for a $1 billion gas pipeline project due to regulatory uncertainty, with Equinor among the parties connected to the situation. This risk carries additional significance because Brazil is one of the three markets the company is targeting to lead its 27% increase in international production by 2030.
  • −Valuation carries risk after the stock's rise within its annual range; the neutral consensus target of $36.5 is below the 52-week high of $43.46, and the highest and lowest targets are identical at $36.5, providing an extremely limited range of estimates. No published price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data to determine whether the valuation is supported by earnings following the decline in FY2025 net income.

Management said on July 22, 2026, that European gas inventories were at 53%, more than 15 percentage points below the normal level, and that Europe might not reach 80% storage before winter. Equinor maintains 70% exposure to day-ahead prices and 30% exposure to month-ahead prices, with a gas cost of approximately $2 per million British thermal units. On August 24, 2026, Uniper signed an agreement to purchase more than 30 terawatt-hours of Equinor gas annually starting in 2027 for 15 years. However, the company explained that it is producing at maximum capacity in the short term, so flexibility is concentrated in directing gas between markets rather than adding immediate volumes.

What are Equinor's most important growth projects through 2030?

Equinor is targeting an additional 150 thousand barrels per day of production by 2030 and a 27% increase in international production, with a focus on the United States, Brazil, and Angola. The projects mentioned include Bacalhau, Raia and Sparta expected in 2028, Rosebank and Jekta generally expected in 2027, and Greater PAJ in Angola toward 2028. The company is also executing 65 tie-in and development projects near infrastructure on the Norwegian continental shelf and is targeting a 100 thousand barrel-per-day increase in its 2030 Norway production outlook. The NCS 2035 model aims to double development speed and halve the cost of new projects through standardization and simplification.

Does Equinor support cash dividends and share buybacks?

For Q2 FY2026, the board approved an ordinary cash dividend of $0.39 per share and a third share buyback tranche of up to $1.125 billion including the state's share. The company doubled its FY2026 buyback program from $1.5 billion to $3 billion, but confirmed during the July 22, 2026 call that there was no plan to increase it above this level. Cash and cash equivalents totaled approximately $24 billion, while the net debt ratio declined to 10.4% at the end of the quarter. The company is also prioritizing an additional $1 billion investment in oil and gas and strengthening the balance sheet to withstand periods of lower prices.

What do the annual financial statements reveal about Equinor's earnings trend?

Equinor's revenue increased to $106.5 billion in FY2025 from $103.8 billion in FY2024, but remained below $107.2 billion in FY2023. Net income declined to $5.1 billion in FY2025, compared with $8.8 billion in FY2024 and $11.9 billion in FY2023. Earnings per share also declined to $1.94 from $3.11 and $3.93 over the same periods. This means the revenue improvement in FY2025 did not translate into profit growth, as gross profit fell to $51.3 billion from $53.7 billion.