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Stocks
Enphase Energy, Inc.
ENPH

ENPH Enphase Energy, Inc.

Enphase Energy, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
36.35
▼ ⁦-1.38%⁩ (-0.51)
Market Cap$4.9B
Beta1.65
52w Low52w High
25.7873.74
Last Week
⁦+2.34%⁩
Last Month
⁦-13.18%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-45.67%⁩
Last Year
⁦-4.79%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall59
Balanced — near the middle of the marketFalling StarF 6/9Better than 59% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
34
36.0x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
6
-10.4%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
62
3.6%▼4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
80
0.4x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
94
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
34
14.7%▲2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
85
17▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Current price$36
Analyst target · 12 analysts
$45
⁦+24%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$24–$57⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$13
⁦-66%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦11.7⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$13–$45⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 12 analysts setting price target
$44.90
⁦+23.5%⁩
Current Price $36.35·Median $45.00
Low
$24.47
High
$57.00
Current price
$36.35
Average target
$44.90
Street summary

ENPH target estimates remain stable with slight improvement

ENPH’s consensus price target rose slightly from 44.63 to 44.90 over the last 30 days, an increase of 0.6%, while remaining unchanged over the last 7 days and 1 day. The number of analysts remained at 12, indicating that the improvement was limited and not supported by an increase in the coverage base. At the current price of 38.83, the consensus is approximately 15.6% higher, but the target range of 24.47 to 57 reflects a wide divergence of opinions.

As of 2026-09-08
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.6%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.38
Hold
Analyst coverage
29
Buy conviction
38%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
89%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time29 analysts rating
3
8
16
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.19 → 3.38
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-08
    Oppenheimer
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-17
    Evercore ISI Group
    Positive
  • = Reiterate2026-07-30
    Susquehanna
    Neutral
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Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    35.99x
    3.56x28.47x
    Expensive
  • Forward P/E
    16.86x
    3.36x26.89x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    25.56x
    2.12x16.98x
    Very expensive
  • FCF Yield
    3.8%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -10.4%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -21.7%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    46.9%
    7.8%72.1%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    3.6%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Near median
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.44x
    0.40x3.19x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-28 data

Company Overview

Enphase Energy sells distributed energy management solutions, including IQ microinverters, IQ batteries, electric vehicle chargers, and home control tools. Its core business relies on selling residential solar and storage equipment through distributors and installer networks, while expanding into commercial and industrial storage and data center electrical infrastructure. It also generates “safe harbor” revenue from selling equipment to third-party owners that plan to install it over a period exceeding one year.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, the company reported revenue of $291.9 million, up 3% sequentially, and shipped 1.59 million microinverters and 113.8 megawatt-hours of batteries. The United States represented 78% of revenue and international markets 22%, while revenue included $84.3 million of safe harbor sales, or about 29% of the total. European revenue increased 35% sequentially and sell-through grew 30%, while U.S. revenue declined 3% and U.S. sell-through fell 7% sequentially and 34% year over year.

GAAP gross margin was 60% in Q2 fiscal 2026, but it benefited by 15.6 percentage points from tariff refunds; adjusted gross margin was 46.8%. The company generated net income of $36.1 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.27, compared with a net loss of $7.4 million and a loss of $0.06 per share in Q1 fiscal 2026. Operating cash flow was $40.3 million and free cash flow was $25.9 million, with cash and marketable securities of $937.7 million as of June 30, 2026.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Enphase expects revenue of between $290 million and $320 million in Q3 fiscal 2026, representing growth of about 5% at the midpoint, and bookings exceeded 70% of the midpoint at the time of the July 28, 2026 call. This guidance includes $75 million of safe harbor revenue, while management expects 10% growth in global sell-through and shipments of 130 to 150 megawatt-hours of batteries.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Europe became the driver of the operating recovery in Q2 fiscal 2026; battery activations increased sequentially by about 102% in the Netherlands and 34% in France, while microinverter and battery activations in Germany increased by about 35% and 30%, respectively. Upgrade programs target a combined installed base of nearly 900 thousand Enphase customers in the Netherlands and France.
  • Safe harbor agreements signed since the beginning of fiscal 2026 provide long-term volume visibility; they totaled about $1.1 billion, including approximately $202 million under the 5% method and $878.6 million under the physical work test. Management expects to begin converting physical work test agreements into regular microinverter operations starting in 2028, with an opportunity to add batteries to systems installed between 2028 and 2030.
  • The PROPEL program expanded from four states to six states by July 28, 2026, with a plan to reach 12 states by the end of Q3 fiscal 2026. The number of participating installers exceeded 290, and the pace of financed installations reached about 200 per week with a battery attachment rate of approximately 75%, while partner Sole Source targets 500 installations per week by the end of 2026.
  • The company expanded its product line during 2026 with the gallium nitride-based IQ9 and the IQ Battery G5, which has 50% higher energy density and approximately 40% lower cost per kilowatt-hour compared with the fourth generation. On August 19, 2026, Enphase opened preorders for the IQ Battery C80, its first commercial and industrial storage system, for projects ranging from 80 kilowatt-hours to two megawatts, with shipments planned for 2027. The IQSST platform for data centers also targets a fully operational system in 2026, customer trials in 2027, and commercial shipments in 2028.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The bullish case is based on a clear improvement in Europe, where revenue increased 35% and sell-through grew 30% sequentially in Q2 fiscal 2026, driven by battery adoption in the Netherlands, France, and Germany.
    • +The IQ Battery G5 could improve competitiveness when its planned shipments begin in Q4 fiscal 2026, thanks to 50% higher energy density and approximately 40% lower cost per kilowatt-hour compared with the fourth generation, with a modular design scalable to 30 kilowatt-hours in a single stack.
    • +Safe harbor agreements totaling about $1.1 billion provide Enphase with a multiyear path for demand for microinverters and accessories, in addition to an opportunity to attach batteries when systems associated with the physical work test begin installation between 2028 and 2030.
    • +The move into commercial storage and data centers represents expansion beyond the residential solar market; the company has entered request-for-information and request-for-proposal stages for IQSST opportunities representing several gigawatts of potential demand, and designed the first generation with capacities from 1.25 to 2.5 megawatts.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The business remains highly exposed to the U.S. market, which accounted for 78% of Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue; U.S. sell-through declined 34% year over year, while residential solar permits and preliminary sales indicators in the broader market remained about 30% below prior-year levels.
    • −A meaningful share of near-term revenue depends on safe harbor sales; they accounted for $84.3 million, or about 29%, of Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue, and Q3 fiscal 2026 guidance includes an additional $75 million. The company had not recognized any revenue from the $878.6 million of physical work test agreements signed during fiscal 2026 as of July 28, 2026, and management expects related recognition to begin in 2028.
    • −The 60% gross margin in Q2 fiscal 2026 does not fully reflect comparable operating economics because it benefited by 15.6 percentage points from tariff refunds, while adjusted gross margin was 46.8%. GAAP gross margin guidance for Q3 fiscal 2026 ranges from 42% to 45%, including a two-percentage-point negative impact from reciprocal tariffs.
    • −Growth opportunities in data centers and commercial storage depend on executing products that have not yet reached broad commercial shipment; Enphase management described IQSST reliability as not yet proven, with multiple competitors developing solid-state transformers. Under the July 28, 2026 plan, customer trials do not begin before 2027 and commercial shipments do not begin before 2028.
    • −The U.S. recovery is tied to financing availability and tax policy; management noted on July 28, 2026 that visibility on Treasury guidance was limited and tax benefit financing was constrained, while weakness in the residential market coincided with the expiration of the 25D tax credit and higher interest rates. Q3 fiscal 2026 guidance relying on shipments being about $15 million below sell-through provides further evidence of continued distributor caution.
    • −The valuation reflects a wide divergence in analyst views; the consensus is “Neutral,” and the target range spans from $24.47 to $57, a more than twofold difference between the endpoints. The average target of $44.9 is also about 39% below the 52-week range high of $73.74, highlighting the impact of weakness in the U.S. residential market and the immaturity of new growth drivers on the stock's revaluation.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $44.9, compared with a high target of $57 and a low target of $24.47, while the consensus rates the stock “Neutral.” The average target falls within the 52-week range of $25.78 to $73.74 and is about 39% below its high, while the wide spread in targets reflects significant disagreement over whether growth in batteries, Europe, and commercial products can offset the decline in the U.S. residential market. This divergence is not resolved by a single profitability signal because Q2 fiscal 2026 combined a recovery in net income with a substantial exceptional benefit from tariff refunds.

    HoldAnalyst target: $44.9(+23.5%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove ENPH's Q2 fiscal 2026 results?

    Revenue was $291.9 million, up 3% sequentially, with shipments of 1.59 million microinverters and 113.8 megawatt-hours of batteries. European revenue growth of 35% offset the 3% decline in U.S. revenue, and U.S. markets accounted for 78% of the mix. Revenue also included $84.3 million of safe harbor sales, and GAAP net income was $36.1 million.

    Has demand for Enphase batteries begun to improve?

    Europe showed tangible improvement in Q2 fiscal 2026, with sequential battery activation growth of about 102% in the Netherlands, 34% in France, and 30% in Germany. The company expects to ship 130 to 150 megawatt-hours of IQ batteries in Q3 fiscal 2026, compared with 113.8 megawatt-hours in the previous quarter. PROPEL supports U.S. demand with a battery attachment rate of approximately 75%, while the IQ Battery G5 targets a reduction in cost per kilowatt-hour of about 40% compared with the fourth generation.

    How important is the PROPEL program to ENPH stock?

    PROPEL combines Enphase equipment with financing from TriBeam Financial and nationwide distribution through Green-Tech Renewables, targeting smaller installers in the U.S. market. By July 28, 2026, the program was operating in six states with more than 290 participating installers and a pace of about 200 installations per week. The plan targets expansion to 12 states by the end of Q3 fiscal 2026 and 500 installations per week by the end of 2026, but expansion depends on the availability of storage capacity and tax credit buyers.

    When could Enphase's new products become financially meaningful?

    The company planned to begin shipping the IQ Battery G5 in Q4 fiscal 2026, while targeting shipments of the commercial and industrial IQ Battery C80 in 2027. For IQSST, Enphase targets completing a fully operational system in 2026, beginning customer trials in 2027, and then commercial shipments in 2028. Therefore, G5 could support results over a nearer-term horizon, while contributions from commercial storage and data centers remain tied to execution extending through 2027 and 2028.

    What are the key ENPH risks to monitor?

    The United States accounted for 78% of Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue, and sell-through there declined 34% year over year under pressure from interest rates and the expiration of the 25D tax credit. Q3 fiscal 2026 guidance also included a two-percentage-point negative impact from reciprocal tariffs and assumed shipments approximately $15 million below sell-through. IQSST remains in development with commercially unproven reliability and multiple competitors, while the company does not expect commercial shipments before 2028.

    How do Enphase's liquidity and profitability look after Q2 fiscal 2026?

    The company ended June 30, 2026 with cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities of $937.7 million, compared with $930.6 million at the end of Q1 fiscal 2026. It generated $40.3 million of operating cash flow and $25.9 million of free cash flow, with capital expenditures of $14.4 million. However, GAAP gross margin benefited by 15.6 percentage points from tariff refunds, so the adjusted gross margin of 46.8% provides a clearer measure of underlying operating performance.