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Companhia Paranaense de Energia
ELPC

ELPC Companhia Paranaense de Energia

Companhia Paranaense de Energia · NYSE
Market Closed
12.48
▼ ⁦-1.81%⁩ (-0.23)
Market Cap$2.3B
Beta0.27
52w Low52w High
8.0813.70
Last Week
⁦+0.73%⁩
Last Month
⁦+8.05%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+9.47%⁩
Last Year
⁦+50.72%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall57
Balanced — near the middle of the marketTurnaroundF 4/9Better than 57% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
97
3.8x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
31
14.5%▲7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
45
9.5%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
49
2.6x2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
4
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
82
42.4%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
21
1▼3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Current price$12
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$10
⁦-17%⁩
See it slightly overvalued
Range ⁦$10–$10⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$6.43
⁦-48%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$6.43–$10⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$10.40
⁦-16.7%⁩
Current Price $12.48·Median $10.40
Low
$10.40
High
$10.40
Street summary

ELPC Stock Price Target Analysis

Bearish tilt

ELPC stock shows stability in its price target at 10.4, which is 11.2% lower than the current price of 11.72, indicating a negative gap between analyst valuation and current market performance. Over the past 30 days, the number of analysts covering the stock decreased from 3 to 2, with the consensus price remaining unchanged, reflecting a decline in analytical coverage and a continued cautious outlook despite the initial "Buy" rating issued by Goldman Sachs at the beginning of the year.

As of 2026-08-03
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
3
Buy conviction
100%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time3 analysts rating
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-01-28
    Goldman Sachs
    Buy· $10.40
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    3.84x
    4.50x36.01x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    4.20x
    3.07x24.54x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    13.5%
    -17.6%10.2%
    Exceptional
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    14.5%
    -10.5%25.3%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -26.1%
    -53.8%122.0%
    Below average
  • Gross Margin
    20.1%
    9.8%69.4%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    9.5%
    -2.0%11.4%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.64x
    1.28x10.25x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-05 data

Company Overview

Companhia Paranaense de Energia, known as Copel, is an integrated energy company combining electricity distribution, generation, transmission, and trading. In fiscal Q2 2026, nearly all EBITDA came from Copel DisCo and the generation and transmission segment, which together generated 1.603 billion Brazilian reais; Copel DisCo recorded approximately 765.6 million Brazilian reais, while the generation and transmission segment generated 838 million Brazilian reais. The company benefits from its hydroelectric assets in southern Brazil, its distribution network in the state of Paraná, bilateral contracts, transmission network availability charges, and energy portfolio management.

In fiscal Q2 2026, recurring EBITDA reached 1.6 billion Brazilian reais, up approximately 21% from fiscal Q2 2025, while recurring net income increased 42.6% to 645.1 million Brazilian reais. The distribution business grew with support from a 7.2% expansion in the billed grid market, while earnings in the generation and transmission segment increased 10.1%, benefiting from a 6.4% increase in average selling prices and a 70.2 million Brazilian reais increase in network availability revenue. The call did not disclose consolidated revenue for the quarter, but annual EDGAR data show revenue rising from 21.5 billion dollars in fiscal 2023 to 22.7 billion dollars in fiscal 2024, with gross profit remaining stable at 4.9 billion dollars and net income increasing from 2.3 billion to 2.8 billion dollars.

Capital expenditure totaled 957.2 million Brazilian reais in fiscal Q2 2026; approximately 479 million was allocated to modernizing and automating the Copel DisCo network, and approximately 476.4 million to generation and transmission, including 318 million to begin expanding the Foz do Areia and Segredo plants. The company ended June 2026 with adjusted net debt of 19.6 billion Brazilian reais and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.9 times, equal to its adjusted capital structure target. It also kept its distribution policy unchanged at a minimum payout ratio of 75% and at least two annual payments.

What's Driving the Stock

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

The completion of the Copel Distribution tariff review resulted in the recognition of a regulated asset base of approximately 20 billion Brazilian reais, more than double the 2021 base, increasing the value of assets on which distribution business returns are based in the new cycle.
  • Copel DisCo's billed grid market grew 7.2% in fiscal Q2 2026, raising the segment's recurring EBITDA by 34.5% to 765.6 million Brazilian reais, with a contribution from the average 1.3% adjustment in Portion B approved in June 2025.
  • The generation and transmission segment generated recurring EBITDA of 838 million Brazilian reais, up 10.1%, supported by an 85.1 million Brazilian reais increase in revenue from bilateral contracts and ACL allocations and a 70.2 million Brazilian reais increase in network availability revenue.
  • Energy portfolio management generated 75 million Brazilian reais from market opportunities during fiscal Q2 2026, including 52 million from hydroelectric adjustments and 23 million from differences between submarkets. Energy sales for 2027 and 2028 were also four times their fiscal Q1 2026 level, with an average blended price 6% higher.
  • The Foz do Areia and Segredo expansion will cost approximately 5 billion Brazilian reais, and execution began with spending of 318 million in fiscal Q2 2026, while management expects project-related cash flows to begin at the end of 2030. The company is keeping more than 40% of its hydroelectric portfolio uncontracted beginning in 2028, giving it flexibility to sell energy when pricing opportunities emerge.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Fiscal Q2 2026 results show clear operating strength, with recurring EBITDA rising approximately 21% to 1.6 billion Brazilian reais and recurring net income increasing 42.6% to 645.1 million Brazilian reais.
    • +Operating profit depends almost entirely on the distribution and generation and transmission businesses, which together generated 1.603 billion Brazilian reais, giving the business model a foundation of regulated assets and generation operations rather than reliance on a single trading activity.
    • +The distribution tariff review supports a regulated asset base of approximately 20 billion Brazilian reais, while the billed grid market grew 7.2%, helping Copel DisCo increase its recurring EBITDA by 34.5%.
    • +The policy of a minimum payout ratio of 75% and at least two annual payments provides a clear framework for shareholder returns; the company announced 706 million Brazilian reais in interest on equity payable in September 2026 and confirmed its intention to announce another distribution before the end of 2026.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Adjusted net debt reached 19.6 billion Brazilian reais in June 2026, and leverage reached 2.9 times net debt-to-EBITDA, alongside an investment program of approximately 5 billion Brazilian reais to expand Foz do Areia and Segredo, whose cash flows are not expected to begin before the end of 2030.
    • −Recurring net financial income declined by 251.4 million Brazilian reais in fiscal Q2 2026 because of interest expenses associated with the higher average debt balance; 65.7% of debt was also linked to the CDI rate and 31% to the IPCA index, while its average nominal cost was 12.92% annually.
    • −Billed energy volume in the generation and transmission segment declined 7.8% as planned, and a 6.4% increase in the average selling price had to offset this decline, making continued segment growth sensitive to the ability of prices and new contracts to balance weaker volumes.
    • −ONS-mandated generation curtailment increased from 15.7% to 23.7% during fiscal Q2 2026, resulting in a negative impact of 34.8 million Brazilian reais, alongside a 35.2 million Brazilian reais decline in adjustment revenue.
    • −Management believes the structural cost-reduction phase has ended after three years, while service quality and the El Niño phenomenon may impose additional pressure; third-party distribution services increased by 10.3 million Brazilian reais, wind asset maintenance materials by 5.4 million, and personnel and benefit costs by 12.9 million during the quarter.
    • −One insider sale and no purchases were recorded during the three months ending with the latest transaction on June 16, 2026, resulting in net sales of approximately 95,459 units. This remains a weak standalone signal because insider sales may be prearranged unless the data disclose otherwise.

    Valuation

    The consensus analyst target is 10.40 dollars, and the available high and low estimates are identical, so the targets do not provide a broad range reflecting differences in estimates; the data also did not include the distribution of buy, hold, and sell recommendations. This target is approximately 24% below the 52-week high of 13.697 dollars and approximately 29% above the low of 8.08 dollars, while no valid price-to-earnings ratio is available to assess the stock relative to its earnings.

    Analyst target: $10.4(-16.7%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove ELPC's fiscal Q2 2026 results growth?

    Recurring EBITDA increased approximately 21% to 1.6 billion Brazilian reais, while recurring net income rose 42.6% to 645.1 million Brazilian reais. Copel DisCo achieved 34.5% growth in recurring operating earnings to 765.6 million Brazilian reais, supported by 7.2% growth in the billed market. In generation and transmission, recurring operating earnings increased 10.1% to 838 million Brazilian reais due to higher prices and network availability revenue.

    How does the Copel Distribution tariff review affect the company?

    The tariff review was completed in fiscal Q2 2026 and recognized a regulated asset base of approximately 20 billion Brazilian reais. This base is more than double its 2021 level and reflects investments made by Copel Distribution during the previous tariff cycle. This coincided with an average 1.3% adjustment in Portion B and 7.2% growth in the billed grid market during the quarter.

    What is Copel's plan for expanding Foz do Areia and Segredo?

    Copel intends to invest approximately 5 billion Brazilian reais to expand the Foz do Areia and Segredo plants following the LRCAP auction results. The company spent 318 million Brazilian reais to begin the work in fiscal Q2 2026, within spending of 476.4 million Brazilian reais on the generation and transmission segment. Management expects cash flows associated with the LRCAP plan to begin at the end of 2030 and therefore extended the flexible convergence period for the leverage target to up to 48 months.

    Are Copel's distributions threatened by higher capital expenditure?

    Management confirmed during the August 5, 2026 call that the distribution policy had not changed and that the minimum payout ratio remains 75%, with at least two annual payments. The company announced 706 million Brazilian reais in interest on equity payable in September 2026. At the same time, the distribution commitment coincides with capital expenditure of 957.2 million Brazilian reais during the quarter and net debt of 19.6 billion Brazilian reais, making balance-sheet flexibility an important factor.

    How is Copel preparing for El Niño during 2026 and 2027?

    On August 5, 2026, management cited a NOAA estimate of an 81% probability of a strong or very strong phenomenon from August 2026 through fiscal Q1 2027. The company expects elevated rainfall in the south between August and November 2026, compared with higher temperatures and increased system load in the southeast and central-west, and says its short-term portfolio is protected by contracts at prices it considers attractive. It also maintains hydroelectric availability of 20% for 2026 and more than 40% of the hydroelectric portfolio uncontracted beginning in 2028, but ONS-mandated generation curtailment reached 23.7% in fiscal Q2 2026 and caused a negative impact of 34.8 million Brazilian reais.

    What are the main balance-sheet risks for ELPC stock?

    Adjusted net debt reached 19.6 billion Brazilian reais in June 2026, while the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio stood at the target of 2.9 times. 65.7% of debt was linked to the CDI rate and 31% to the IPCA index, while its average nominal cost was 12.92% annually with an average term of 5.2 years. The impact of indebtedness appeared in the 251.4 million Brazilian reais decline in recurring net financial income during fiscal Q2 2026 because of higher interest expenses and a higher average debt balance.