| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 97 | 3.5x | 17.3x | Top tier | |
Growth | 31 | 14.5% | 7.1% | Bottom tier | |
Quality | 46 | 9.5% | 4.5% | Around median | |
Safety | 50 | 2.6x | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 60 | 22.90% | 0.06% | Around median | |
Momentum | 87 | 42.0% | -1.6% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 21 | 1 | 3 | Bottom tier |
The floor: what the company is worth if growth stopped today
0% of today's price is what a buyer pays for growth that has not happened yet.
10-year US Treasury yield 4.96% as of 2026-10-22. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.
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Companhia Paranaense de Energia, known as Copel, is an integrated energy company combining electricity distribution, generation, transmission, and trading. In fiscal Q2 2026, nearly all EBITDA came from Copel DisCo and the generation and transmission segment, which together generated 1.603 billion Brazilian reais; Copel DisCo recorded approximately 765.6 million Brazilian reais, while the generation and transmission segment generated 838 million Brazilian reais. The company benefits from its hydroelectric assets in southern Brazil, its distribution network in the state of Paraná, bilateral contracts, transmission network availability charges, and energy portfolio management.
In fiscal Q2 2026, recurring EBITDA reached 1.6 billion Brazilian reais, up approximately 21% from fiscal Q2 2025, while recurring net income increased 42.6% to 645.1 million Brazilian reais. The distribution business grew with support from a 7.2% expansion in the billed grid market, while earnings in the generation and transmission segment increased 10.1%, benefiting from a 6.4% increase in average selling prices and a 70.2 million Brazilian reais increase in network availability revenue. The call did not disclose consolidated revenue for the quarter, but annual EDGAR data show revenue rising from 21.5 billion dollars in fiscal 2023 to 22.7 billion dollars in fiscal 2024, with gross profit remaining stable at 4.9 billion dollars and net income increasing from 2.3 billion to 2.8 billion dollars.
Capital expenditure totaled 957.2 million Brazilian reais in fiscal Q2 2026; approximately 479 million was allocated to modernizing and automating the Copel DisCo network, and approximately 476.4 million to generation and transmission, including 318 million to begin expanding the Foz do Areia and Segredo plants. The company ended June 2026 with adjusted net debt of 19.6 billion Brazilian reais and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.9 times, equal to its adjusted capital structure target. It also kept its distribution policy unchanged at a minimum payout ratio of 75% and at least two annual payments.
The consensus analyst target is 10.40 dollars, and the available high and low estimates are identical, so the targets do not provide a broad range reflecting differences in estimates; the data also did not include the distribution of buy, hold, and sell recommendations. This target is approximately 24% below the 52-week high of 13.697 dollars and approximately 29% above the low of 8.08 dollars, while no valid price-to-earnings ratio is available to assess the stock relative to its earnings.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Recurring EBITDA increased approximately 21% to 1.6 billion Brazilian reais, while recurring net income rose 42.6% to 645.1 million Brazilian reais. Copel DisCo achieved 34.5% growth in recurring operating earnings to 765.6 million Brazilian reais, supported by 7.2% growth in the billed market. In generation and transmission, recurring operating earnings increased 10.1% to 838 million Brazilian reais due to higher prices and network availability revenue.
The tariff review was completed in fiscal Q2 2026 and recognized a regulated asset base of approximately 20 billion Brazilian reais. This base is more than double its 2021 level and reflects investments made by Copel Distribution during the previous tariff cycle. This coincided with an average 1.3% adjustment in Portion B and 7.2% growth in the billed grid market during the quarter.
Copel intends to invest approximately 5 billion Brazilian reais to expand the Foz do Areia and Segredo plants following the LRCAP auction results. The company spent 318 million Brazilian reais to begin the work in fiscal Q2 2026, within spending of 476.4 million Brazilian reais on the generation and transmission segment. Management expects cash flows associated with the LRCAP plan to begin at the end of 2030 and therefore extended the flexible convergence period for the leverage target to up to 48 months.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management confirmed during the August 5, 2026 call that the distribution policy had not changed and that the minimum payout ratio remains 75%, with at least two annual payments. The company announced 706 million Brazilian reais in interest on equity payable in September 2026. At the same time, the distribution commitment coincides with capital expenditure of 957.2 million Brazilian reais during the quarter and net debt of 19.6 billion Brazilian reais, making balance-sheet flexibility an important factor.
On August 5, 2026, management cited a NOAA estimate of an 81% probability of a strong or very strong phenomenon from August 2026 through fiscal Q1 2027. The company expects elevated rainfall in the south between August and November 2026, compared with higher temperatures and increased system load in the southeast and central-west, and says its short-term portfolio is protected by contracts at prices it considers attractive. It also maintains hydroelectric availability of 20% for 2026 and more than 40% of the hydroelectric portfolio uncontracted beginning in 2028, but ONS-mandated generation curtailment reached 23.7% in fiscal Q2 2026 and caused a negative impact of 34.8 million Brazilian reais.
Adjusted net debt reached 19.6 billion Brazilian reais in June 2026, while the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio stood at the target of 2.9 times. 65.7% of debt was linked to the CDI rate and 31% to the IPCA index, while its average nominal cost was 12.92% annually with an average term of 5.2 years. The impact of indebtedness appeared in the 251.4 million Brazilian reais decline in recurring net financial income during fiscal Q2 2026 because of higher interest expenses and a higher average debt balance.