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Stocks
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall50
Balanced — near the middle of the marketHigh FlyerF 7/8SafeBetter than 50% of Market stocks, per EL7's modelUnsustainable dividend (payout > 100%)
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
25
194.2x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
61
5.0%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
77
3.4%▼4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
50
3.6x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
28
1.44%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
56
-1.0%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
72
17▲3Top tier
EL

EL The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
97.12
▲ ⁦+0.67%⁩ (+0.65)
Market Cap$35.1B
Beta1.25
52w Low52w High
66.22121.64
Last Week
⁦-3.71%⁩
Last Month
⁦+10.77%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+10.34%⁩
Last Year
⁦+11.08%⁩
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$97
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$102
⁦+5%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$86–$120⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$29
⁦-70%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.9⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$29–$102⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
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Monthly plan
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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$102.27
⁦+5.3%⁩
Current Price $97.12·Median $102.00
Low
$86.00
High
$120.00
Current price
$97.12
Average target
$102.27
Street summary

Estée Lauder’s target raised amid limited divergence in views

The consensus price target rose from $90.64 to $102.27 over the last 30 days, an increase of $11.63 or 12.83%, while the number of analysts remained at two. There was no change over the last 7 days. The current price of $97.12 is below consensus, while the range is between $86 and $120, reflecting clear divergence in estimates despite the limited sample.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+12.8%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.59
Buy
Analyst coverage
29
Buy conviction
45%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
1↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
35%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time29 analysts rating
5
8
15
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.46 → 3.59
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-11
    Deutsche Bank
    Buy
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-08-30
    CICC
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-20
    Bernstein
    Market Perform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    194.24x
    4.61x36.85x
    Very expensive
  • Forward P/E
    30.56x
    3.86x30.86x
    Expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    26.13x
    2.86x22.90x
    Expensive
  • FCF Yield
    3.7%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    5.0%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    115.9%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    75.5%
    9.2%67.5%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    3.4%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.65x
    0.61x4.86x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    1.4%
    0.9%8.3%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    279.1%
    15.9%176.6%
    High
  • Altman Z-Score
    3.11
    -4.825.90
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-19 data

Company Overview

The Estée Lauder Companies operates in prestige beauty across the skin care, fragrance, makeup, and hair care categories, with a portfolio that includes Estée Lauder, Clinique, La Mer, M·A·C, Jo Malone London, TOM FORD, The Ordinary, Le Labo, KILIAN PARIS, and others. The company generates sales through stores, brand websites, third-party platforms, specialty retail, and travel retail; in fiscal 2026, online channels accounted for 34% of reported sales, an increase of 3 percentage points, while travel retail represented about 15%. Jo Malone London and TOM FORD joined Clinique, Estée Lauder, La Mer, and M·A·C among the brands with sales exceeding $1 billion.

In fiscal 2026, the company reported revenue of $15.0 billion, gross profit of $11.4 billion, net income of $182 million, and earnings per share of $0.50, according to EDGAR data. Reported sales rose 5% and organic sales rose 3%, while gross margin expanded by 150 basis points. Adjusted operating margin reached 11.2% after improving by 320 basis points, and adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 66% to $2.51. By category, organic fragrance sales grew 10% and skin care sales grew 4%, while the makeup trend improved by 500 basis points without the company providing a positive category growth figure, and hair care remained without organic growth.

In Q4 of fiscal 2026, revenue was $3.6 billion and gross profit was $2.7 billion, but the company reported a net loss of $116 million according to EDGAR. In contrast, organic sales grew 5%, the strongest quarterly performance in fiscal 2026, and adjusted gross margin reached 75.5% after expanding by 360 basis points. Adjusted diluted earnings per share also rose to $0.39 from $0.09. The divergence between the accounting loss and adjusted metrics reflects the impact of the restructuring phase, as cumulative charges for the PRGP program totaled about $823 million in fiscal 2026 and primarily consisted of employee-related costs.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Fiscal 2027 guidance is the clearest financial driver: management expects organic sales growth of 3% to 5%, an adjusted operating margin of 12.7% to 13.5%, and diluted earnings per share of $3.10 to $3.35, compared with an adjusted operating margin of 11.2% and adjusted earnings per share of $2.51 in fiscal 2026.
  • The business regained momentum in Q4 of fiscal 2026, with organic growth of 5% and gross margin expansion to 75.5%, while North America returned to organic growth and recorded mid-single-digit retail sales growth. Mainland China also delivered organic growth of 9% in fiscal 2026, with six consecutive quarters of market share gains and 11 growing brands in the final quarter, including six brands with double-digit growth.
  • Fragrance continues to lead the portfolio after achieving 10% organic growth in fiscal 2026, driven by products and brands including Le Labo, TOM FORD, KILIAN PARIS, Jo Malone London, and the launch of Balmain Beauty. Management expects fragrance to lead prestige beauty market growth again in fiscal 2027, with launches including Balmain Beauty, a new prestige line from KILIAN PARIS, and products from Estée Lauder, Jo Malone London, and TOM FORD.
  • The company is targeting a 200 to 250 basis point increase in innovation's contribution to sales in fiscal 2027, after innovative products represented 23% of fiscal 2026 sales. The new portfolio includes PDRN products from Clinique and The Ordinary, Estée Lauder innovations in nighttime care and longevity, enhanced offerings from La Mer and Bobbi Brown, and a new lip tint from M·A·C that achieved strong success in its initial launch in Korea during fiscal 2026.
  • The Beauty Reimagined and PRGP programs support margin improvement by reducing non-consumer-facing expenses and increasing efficiency; operating cash flow grew to $1.8 billion in fiscal 2026 from $1.3 billion, while capital expenditures declined to $457 million from $602 million. Most markets also transitioned to a unified media model with WPP, which ran more than 1,500 campaigns, and the company launched the U.S. M·A·C website on Shopify as part of an update to its direct-selling ecosystem.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The company demonstrated its ability to convert relatively modest organic sales growth into a greater improvement in profitability; in fiscal 2026, organic growth of 3% led to a 320 basis point expansion in adjusted operating margin and a 66% increase in adjusted diluted earnings per share. Management is targeting another margin expansion to a range of 12.7%–13.5% in fiscal 2027.
  • +Growth sources have become more diversified across categories, regions, and channels: fragrance grew 10% and skin care grew 4% organically in fiscal 2026, growth in mainland China reached 9%, North America returned to growth in Q4 of fiscal 2026, and online channels reached 34% of sales.
  • +The company has six brands with sales exceeding $1 billion each, while The Ordinary continued to achieve double-digit organic growth in fiscal 2026 and approached that level. KILIAN PARIS, Le Labo, and The Ordinary were also the three fastest-growing brands in the portfolio during the same period, providing drivers beyond the larger legacy brands.
  • +The cash position supports the plan's flexibility; the company ended fiscal 2026 with $3.5 billion in cash and $1.8 billion in operating cash flow. Management confirmed that its priorities include funding consumer-facing investment, repaying debt, and maintaining dividends, while excluding transformative transactions from its focus for the foreseeable future.

Valuation

The average analyst target is $102.27, compared with a high target of $120 and a low target of $86, with a Neutral consensus; the average target is below the top of the 52-week range of $121.64, while the high target is close to it. No valid P/E ratio is available in the data, which is consistent with the weak accounting net income of $182 million and the net loss in Q4 of fiscal 2026. Therefore, the valuation depends heavily on achieving fiscal 2027 growth and expanding the operating margin to 12.7%–13.5%.

HoldAnalyst target: $102.27(+5.3%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove the improvement in EL's fiscal 2026 results?

Organic sales returned to growth of 3% in fiscal 2026, and growth reached 5% in Q4 of fiscal 2026, the strongest quarter of the year. The PRGP program helped expand gross margin by 150 basis points and adjusted operating margin by 320 basis points to 11.2%. Adjusted diluted earnings per share also rose 66% to $2.51, and operating cash flow grew to $1.8 billion.

What is Estée Lauder's outlook for fiscal 2027?

Management expects organic sales growth of 3% to 5% in fiscal 2027, with stronger performance in the first half due to the timing of innovations and travel retail shipments. It expects an adjusted operating margin of 12.7% to 13.5% and diluted earnings per share of $3.10 to $3.35. It also expects operating cash flow of $1.3 to $1.4 billion, down from $1.8 billion in fiscal 2026 due to restructuring payments and working capital requirements.

How important are China and travel retail to EL's business?

Mainland China achieved organic growth of 9% in fiscal 2026, and the company recorded six consecutive quarters of market share gains there. The number of brands achieving retail sales growth in China reached 11 in the final quarter, including six brands with double-digit growth, while Le Labo grew by more than 50% during fiscal 2026. Travel retail represented about 15% of reported sales, and global retail sales for the channel returned to growth in June and July 2026, led by double-digit growth in Hainan during Q4 of fiscal 2026.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Accounting profitability remains weak relative to the scale of revenue; the company generated net income of only $182 million on revenue of $15.0 billion in fiscal 2026 and reported a net loss of $116 million in Q4 of fiscal 2026 despite improved adjusted earnings. Cumulative PRGP charges also reached $823 million, and restructuring payments will continue during fiscal 2027.
  • −Earnings remain more heavily concentrated in skin care and Asia, as management acknowledged, while the profitability of makeup, fragrance, and hair care requires further improvement. Hair care did not return to organic growth in fiscal 2026, and the makeup category did not achieve reported growth despite a 500 basis point improvement in its trend, leaving the broadening of the operating recovery incomplete.
  • −A significant part of performance depends on China and travel retail; travel retail represented about 15% of reported sales in fiscal 2026, while online channels exceeded 50% of the company's business in China. Despite improved inventory and 9% growth in mainland China, management described the Chinese market as highly competitive, while analysts on the call noted the historical volatility associated with the timing of travel retail shipments.
  • −Fiscal 2027 guidance may not represent acceleration at the low end; the 3%–5% organic growth range begins at the same 3% rate recorded in fiscal 2026. Management also expects stronger growth in the first half of fiscal 2027 than in the second half due to the timing of innovations and travel retail shipments, increasing the importance of early execution and the sustainability of demand afterward.
  • −Operating cash flow is expected to decline in fiscal 2027 to a range of $1.3–$1.4 billion from $1.8 billion in fiscal 2026 due to higher restructuring payments and increased working capital requirements to support growth. This reduces part of the recent cash flow improvement even if earnings and margin targets are achieved.
  • −The valuation carries a clear degree of uncertainty; the analyst consensus is Neutral, and targets range from $86 to $120, a difference of $34 that reflects significant divergence in estimates of the recovery trajectory. No valid P/E ratio is available in the data, while the 52-week range extends from $66.22 to $121.64, limiting the ability to rely on a stable earnings multiple to value the stock.
Which categories and brands are driving Estée Lauder's growth?

Fragrance led organic growth at 10% in fiscal 2026, supported by Le Labo, TOM FORD, KILIAN PARIS, Jo Malone London, and the launch of Balmain Beauty. Skin care grew 4%, with strong performance across The Ordinary, Estée Lauder, and La Mer, and The Ordinary delivered another year of double-digit organic growth. Jo Malone London and TOM FORD also joined the billion-dollar sales brand club, bringing the company's number of brands at this level to six.

Have the makeup and hair care categories fully recovered?

The recovery is not yet complete; the organic sales trend for makeup improved by 500 basis points in fiscal 2026, but the company did not report that the category had returned to positive organic growth. M·A·C and TOM FORD led the improvement, and M·A·C regained the number-one position in the United States during Q4 of fiscal 2026 after expanding in Sephora and launching a new lip tint. Hair care remained without organic growth despite signs of improvement for Aveda in U.S. salon data and strong growth for The Ordinary Serum for Hair Density.

How does EL's stock valuation look based on analyst consensus?

The analyst consensus on EL stock is Neutral, with an average target of $102.27. The target range extends from $86 to $120, compared with a 52-week range of $66.22 to $121.64, and the high target is near the top of this range. No valid P/E ratio is available in the data, so the valuation is tied to the company's ability to raise diluted earnings per share to $3.10–$3.35 and expand adjusted operating margin to 12.7%–13.5% in fiscal 2027.