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Home
Stocks
Ellington Financial Inc.
EFC

EFC Ellington Financial Inc.

Ellington Financial Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
12.89
▼ ⁦-1.15%⁩ (-0.15)
Market Cap$1.6B
Beta0.93
52w Low52w High
11.2814.12
Last Week
⁦-2.79%⁩
Last Month
⁦-1.90%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-5.15%⁩
Last Year
⁦-7.13%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall51
Balanced — near the middle of the marketSuper StockF 3/8Better than 51% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
75
8.1x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
94
119.5%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
54
3.5%▼4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
19
24.5x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
3
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
58
-4.5%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
61
5▲3Around median
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$13
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$14
⁦+5%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$13–$14⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$113
⁦+775%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦8.5⁩% discount · ⁦12⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$14–$113⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Monthly plan
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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$13.50
⁦+4.7%⁩
Current Price $12.89·Median $13.50
Low
$13.00
High
$14.00
Current price
$12.89
Average target
$13.50
Street summary

Stable Targets as Coverage Broadens

The average price target has remained unchanged at 13.5 over the last day, 7 days, and 30 days, despite the number of analysts increasing from one to two. The range is between 13 and 14, while the current price is 13.47, indicating very limited upside according to the consensus and a narrow dispersion among the available estimates.

As of 2026-09-07
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.25
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦8 (+1)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
75%
High
Target dispersion
8%
Analyst ratings over time8 analysts rating
4
2
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.38 → 4.25
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-06-17
    BTIG
    BuyNeutral
  • = Reiterate2025-09-03
    UBS
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2025-05-15
    B. Riley
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    8.06x
    5.03x40.26x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    6.82x
    5.89x47.13x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    26.69x
    3.68x29.40x
    Expensive
  • FCF Yield
    68.4%
    -23.1%16.7%
    Exceptional
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    119.5%
    -14.0%37.7%
    Exceptional
  • EPS Growth YoY
    31.1%
    -121.8%181.8%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    3.5%
    -4.2%9.5%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    24.47x
    1.55x12.39x
    Financial risk
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-07 data

Company Overview

Ellington Financial Inc., listed under the ticker EFC, operates as an integrated real estate investment and financing platform that combines purchasing loans and originating them through partners, securitizing them, retaining selected tranches, and servicing reverse mortgages through Longbridge. Earnings are generated primarily from net interest income on the loan portfolio and retained tranches, securitization gains, loan servicing income, and contributions from its stakes in loan originators; most of the investment portfolio’s earnings in Q2 fiscal 2026 came from loans purchased through subsidiaries, then securitized, with the residual tranches retained.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, EFC recorded GAAP net income of $0.43 per share and adjusted distributable earnings of $0.60 per share, versus quarterly distributions of $0.39 per share, and generated an annualized economic return of 13.6%. The net interest margin was 336 basis points, and book value increased by $0.05 to $13.61 per share after distributions were paid. Longbridge contributed approximately $0.23 to adjusted distributable earnings, while the remaining activities, after general expenses, contributed approximately $0.37.

The latest available EDGAR statements for Q1 fiscal 2026 showed revenue of $110.0 million, net income of $95.5 million, and earnings per share of $0.78. By comparison, fiscal 2025 recorded revenue of $146.5 million, net income of $118.7 million, and earnings per share of $1.19. Longbridge’s mix in Q2 fiscal 2026 included loan originations of approximately $590 million, of which 54% were proprietary reverse mortgages and 46% were HECM loans.

What's Driving the Stock

  • EFC’s earnings increased by 27.7% in Q2 fiscal 2026 and exceeded expectations, driven by growth in interest income and Longbridge’s contribution; adjusted distributable earnings also reached $0.60 per share versus quarterly distributions of $0.39.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Longbridge increased loan origination volume by 38% year over year to approximately $590 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, and July 2026 recorded the highest monthly volume in its history for proprietary reverse mortgage application originations and submissions. Submitted loan applications during the quarter totaled approximately $870 million, compared with less than $750 million in the previous quarter, with management cautioning that some applications may not convert into funded loans.
  • Ellington’s residential loan gateway purchased more than $15 million of loans per day from more than 40 sellers, equivalent to an annualized pace of approximately $4 billion. This gateway supplied a significant portion of the approximately $2 billion of loans securitized during Q2 fiscal 2026.
  • Securitizations totaled approximately $4 billion of principal during the first half of fiscal 2026, compared with approximately $4.4 billion during the entirety of fiscal 2025. These transactions allow short-term mark-to-market financing to be replaced with longer-term, non-recourse financing, while creating retained tranches that support future interest income.
  • Credit performance remained strong, with cumulative realized credit losses of only 17 basis points on approximately $20.4 billion of residential mortgage financing and 39 basis points on more than $2.5 billion of commercial real estate bridge loans. In addition, 20% of Ellington’s employees were allocated to research and technology, and the company uses AI-powered tools to improve analysis and workflows.
  • In August 2026, EFC was approaching completion of the acquisition of a small loan servicing company, with closing expected in September 2026. Management explained that the transaction includes servicing rights with a nominal value in the range of several billion dollars and some subservicing contracts, but it does not expect a material impact on the balance sheet or earnings initially, as the objective is focused on building specialized capabilities for handling delinquent loans.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case5 pts

    • +EFC covered its distributions for eight consecutive quarters through Q2 fiscal 2026, with adjusted distributable earnings of $0.60 per share versus distributions of $0.39, enabling book value to increase to $13.61 per share.
    • +The platform combines loan origination, analysis, financing, securitization, and servicing, allowing it to recycle capital and build retained investments; securitizations in the first half of fiscal 2026 nearly matched the total volume for the entirety of fiscal 2025.
    • +Longbridge provides a clear growth engine after originations increased by 38% year over year, the share of proprietary reverse mortgages rose to 54% of quarterly volume, and its contribution to adjusted distributable earnings increased to $0.23 per share versus a quarterly average of $0.12 during fiscal 2025.
    • +Credit quality supports returns on retained tranches and investor demand for EFMT issuances, with low cumulative losses of 17 basis points in residential mortgages and 39 basis points in commercial bridge loans across multiple market cycles.
    • +The funding structure improved as the average remaining term of repurchase agreements rose to 9.3 months, approximately twice its level in mid-2025, while long-term, non-mark-to-market financing represented 29% of recourse borrowings, and unsecured debt represented 17% of them.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The total debt-to-equity ratio increased to 9.2 times at the end of Q2 fiscal 2026, driven by additional non-recourse financing related to securitizations, despite the recourse debt-to-equity ratio remaining at 1.9 times. This level of leverage increases the sensitivity of results to collateral values, liquidity, and financing spreads if credit markets deteriorate.
    • −Management identified relative weakness among borrowers with low FICO scores and in cash-out refinancing loans, as the delinquency gap between low and high scores widened during the year ended in Q2 fiscal 2026. Larger portfolio growth will also naturally lead to some delinquency cases, increasing the importance of collections and distressed loan management.
    • −The commercial real estate portfolio faces an environment in which the supply of non-performing loans and distressed assets is increasing. Although this may create purchasing opportunities, it also provides evidence of continuing credit pressure in the sector in which EFC operates through bridge loans and the loan originator Sheridan Capital.
    • −Longbridge’s earnings may fluctuate because a significant portion of profitability depends on the number of proprietary reverse mortgage securitizations and the level of their execution spreads. Management indicated that the approximately $0.16 to $0.17 per share contribution from non-servicing activities in Q2 fiscal 2026 may have been above a sustainable level, and that a contribution in the low-to-mid teens is more appropriate in normal periods.
    • −Reverse mortgage origination volumes and margins remain sensitive to interest rates; management described the combination of strong origination profitability and hedging gains in Q2 fiscal 2026 as an unusually positive mix. The company also did not provide specific guidance for Q3 fiscal 2026 margins, and not all of the $870 million of submitted applications may convert into funded loans.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $13.50, within a narrow range of $13 to $14, accompanied by a consensus “Buy” rating. The average is approximately 4.4% below the upper end of the 52-week range of $14.12, while the 52-week range extends from $11.28 to $14.12; the narrow target range indicates closely aligned expectations rather than substantial re-rating potential. A price-to-earnings ratio is not available in the provided data, so EFC’s valuation is more clearly based on book value of $13.61 per share, the sustainability of distribution coverage, and leverage risk of 9.2 times.

    BuyAnalyst target: $13.5(+4.7%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    How did EFC generate its Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings?

    EFC generated GAAP net income of $0.43 per share and adjusted distributable earnings of $0.60 per share in Q2 fiscal 2026. Performance came from higher net interest income, growth in the average portfolio size, Longbridge’s strength, and the execution of securitizations. Longbridge contributed approximately $0.23 per share, while the remaining activities contributed approximately $0.37 after general expenses. The annualized economic return during the quarter was 13.6%.

    How important is Longbridge to EFC stock?

    Longbridge originated approximately $590 million of loans in Q2 fiscal 2026, an increase of 38% year over year. Proprietary reverse mortgages represented 54% of volume, versus 46% for HECM loans, and the company completed two securitizations of the proprietary product during the quarter. Its contribution to adjusted distributable earnings was $0.23 per share, compared with a quarterly average of $0.12 during fiscal 2025. Submitted application volume also reached $870 million, and July 2026 set a monthly record for originations and applications in the proprietary product.

    Are EFC’s distributions covered by earnings?

    Adjusted distributable earnings were $0.60 per share in Q2 fiscal 2026, versus quarterly distributions of $0.39 per share. GAAP net income of $0.43 per share also exceeded the distributions. The company covered its distributions for eight consecutive quarters through that quarter, and book value increased by $0.05 to $13.61 per share after distributions were paid. Management maintained the monthly distribution at $0.13, preferring to use excess earnings to build book value.

    What role do securitizations play in EFC’s business model?

    EFC purchases loans through its gateway and partners, then pools them into securitization issuances while retaining selected tranches to generate future income. The gateway purchased more than $15 million of loans per day from more than 40 sellers and supplied a significant portion of the nearly $2 billion of loans securitized in Q2 fiscal 2026. Total securitizations reached approximately $4 billion of principal during the first half of fiscal 2026, versus $4.4 billion during the entirety of fiscal 2025. This process also helps release capital and replace short-term financing with longer-term, non-recourse financing.

    What are EFC’s main credit and funding risks?

    Total debt-to-equity was 9.2 times at the end of Q2 fiscal 2026, while the recourse debt ratio remained at 1.9 times. Management observed greater weakness among borrowers with low FICO scores and cash-out refinancing borrowers and also noted an increasing supply of non-performing commercial real estate loans. Conversely, cumulative realized credit losses were 17 basis points on approximately $20.4 billion of residential mortgage financing and 39 basis points on more than $2.5 billion of commercial bridge loans. The average remaining term of repurchase agreements was 9.3 months, reducing near-term refinancing risk compared with mid-2025.

    How do analysts value EFC stock?

    The analyst consensus provided in the data is “Buy,” with an average price target of $13.50. Targets range from $13 to $14, a relatively narrow range that reflects closely aligned analyst estimates. The average is approximately 4.4% below the 52-week high of $14.12, while the lower end of the range is $11.28. A price-to-earnings ratio is not available in the provided data, so book value of $13.61 per share, distribution coverage, and financial leverage remain key pillars of the company’s valuation.

  • −The acquisition of a loan servicing company expected to close in September 2026 requires building specialized operations and integrating internal resources, while management does not expect a material earnings contribution initially. Therefore, value realization depends on EFC’s success in developing its proprietary servicing platform and efficiently managing delinquent loans over time.