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Encore Capital Group, Inc.
ECPG

ECPG Encore Capital Group, Inc.

Encore Capital Group, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
98.56
▲ ⁦+0.63%⁩ (+0.62)
Market Cap$2.1B
Beta1.28
52w Low52w High
39.95104.98
Last Week
⁦+2.08%⁩
Last Month
⁦+0.69%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+20.86%⁩
Last Year
⁦+133.28%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall88
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 8/9Better than 88% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
90
7.5x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
71
29.5%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
97
——Top tier
▸
Safety
25
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
8
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
99
128.5%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
34
33Bottom tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$99
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$100
⁦+1%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$100–$100⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$-150.63
⁦-253%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦10.1⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$-150.63–$100⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$100.00
⁦+1.5%⁩
Current Price $98.56·Median $100.00
Low
$100.00
High
$100.00
Street summary

Target Holds Steady as Coverage Narrows

The target price remained at 100, with no change over one, seven, or 30 days, while the current price stands at 98.56. The estimate range is now 100–100 with only one analyst, compared with three analysts in the previous one-day and seven-day snapshots; therefore, no change in the price direction is apparent, but the ability to measure dispersion in analyst views and statistical confidence in the consensus has declined.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
4
Buy conviction
75%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time4 analysts rating
1
2
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-11
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    Market Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-06-17
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    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-05-07
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    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    7.49x
    3.16x25.26x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    7.46x
    2.76x22.06x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    9.09x
    3.07x24.55x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    6.0%
    -19.9%19.1%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    29.5%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    451.9%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    58.9%
    23.5%98.3%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    11.6%
    -36.5%24.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    6.29x
    0.25x7.31x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-05-08 data

Company Overview

Encore Capital Group purchases and collects portfolios of charged-off consumer debt through two main businesses: Midland Credit Management in the United States and Cabot Credit Management in selected European markets. Its economic model is based on purchasing receivables portfolios at targeted returns, then using data, analytics, and digital channels to collect amounts exceeding the cost of purchase and financing; 87% of global portfolio purchases in fiscal Q1 2026 came from the United States. In that quarter, portfolio purchases totaled $363 million and global collections reached a record $718 million, including $556 million for MCM and $161 million for Cabot.

In fiscal Q2 2026, Encore recorded revenue of $491.9 million, net income of $64.0 million, and earnings per share of $2.81, equivalent to a calculated net income margin of approximately 13.0%. Revenue increased by approximately 3.5% compared with revenue of $475.4 million in fiscal Q1 2026, but net income declined from $86.2 million and earnings per share from $3.86. Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue exceeded analysts' estimates, supported by record global collections, execution in the U.S. market, and growth in international collections, while earnings per share fell short of the $3.07 estimate.

Fiscal Q1 2026 figures show that MCM is the most important operating driver: its collections rose 23% to $556 million, compared with 7% growth in Cabot collections to $161 million, supported by currency effects. Debt purchasing revenue totaled $453 million and servicing and other revenue totaled $23 million, while operating expenses increased 11% to $291 million versus 19% growth in collections. According to fiscal 2025 data, the company generated revenue of $1.8 billion, net income of $256.8 million, and earnings per share of $10.91.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue exceeded analysts' expectations, reaching $491.9 million, supported by record global collections, effective execution in the United States, and growth in international collections; news on August 6, 2026 also reported that the company raised its full-year outlook.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Global collections in fiscal Q1 2026 reached a record $718 million, up 19%, and exceeded the expected collections curve by $46 million; collections also reached 106% of the remaining collection estimates recorded at the end of fiscal 2025.
  • New technologies, digital channels, and operational innovation supported MCM's performance, with more than 50% of new payments made digitally, while collections in the U.S. business rose 23% to $556 million in fiscal Q1 2026. Strong collections increased the 2024 portfolio multiple from 2.3 to 2.5 and the 2025 portfolio multiple from 2.3 to 2.4, while the 2026 portfolio multiple started at 2.4.
  • Encore benefits from the continued ample supply of U.S. debt portfolios; the estimated annual volume of net charge-offs exceeded $54 billion based on fiscal Q4 2025 data, while the credit card charge-off rate remained near 4%. As a result, MCM purchased portfolios worth $316 million in fiscal Q1 2026, within a global total of $363 million.
  • The balance sheet showed greater capacity to finance growth, as leverage declined to 2.3 times at the end of fiscal Q1 2026 from 2.6 times a year earlier, with no material maturities until 2028 and the securitization facility extended to January 2031. Return on invested capital also increased to 14.6% on a trailing 12-month basis from 8.3% a year earlier.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The U.S. debt market provides a strong purchasing environment for MCM, as U.S. portfolio purchases totaled $316 million in fiscal Q1 2026, while the credit card charge-off rate remained near 4% and the estimated annual volume of net charge-offs exceeded $54 billion.
    • +Collection results demonstrate improved execution quality, with global collections rising 19% to $718 million in fiscal Q1 2026, and the company collecting $46 million above its expectations, while the 2024 portfolio multiple improved to 2.5 and the 2025 portfolio multiple to 2.4.
    • +Operating profit expanded faster than costs in fiscal Q1 2026; collections grew 19% while operating expenses increased only 11%, and the cash efficiency margin was 60.9%. This contributed to an 84% increase in net income to $86 million and a doubling of earnings per share to $3.86 compared with the same quarter of the previous year.
    • +Leverage of 2.3 times, available liquidity, and the absence of material maturities until 2028 give the company room to continue purchasing portfolios, its top capital allocation priority. In fiscal Q1 2026, it also repurchased approximately $20 million of shares without exceeding its target leverage range of two to three times.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Encore's momentum depends heavily on MCM and the U.S. market; the United States accounted for 87% of global portfolio purchases in fiscal Q1 2026, and management described U.S. performance as the primary driver of results. Therefore, a decline in the supply of U.S. portfolios or weaker collection returns could disproportionately affect the group's growth.
    • −Fiscal Q2 2026 earnings showed weakness relative to expectations and the previous quarter; earnings per share were $2.81 versus analysts' estimate of $3.07, a gap of approximately 8.5%. Net income also declined to $64.0 million from $86.2 million in fiscal Q1 2026, despite revenue increasing to $491.9 million from $475.4 million.
    • −Cabot's European business faces a combination of weak consumer lending, low defaults, and strong competition, prompting Encore to be selective in deploying capital. Cabot's purchases in fiscal Q1 2026 totaled only approximately $47 million, and its portfolio collection multiple was 2.2 compared with a starting multiple of 2.4 for MCM's 2026 portfolio.
    • −The regulatory burden could slow the use of artificial intelligence in collections; management explained that calls require human empathy and that using synthetic voices in collection calls involves regulatory considerations. Some tools tested by the company also produced good results while others did not, so Encore is taking a cautious approach rather than rapidly shifting to a less labor-intensive model.
    • −The highest, lowest, and average analyst price targets are all $100, meaning there is no range illustrating differences among analysts' scenarios, while the stock's 52-week range was $39.95 to $104.98. The target's proximity to the historical upper bound makes the target valuation sensitive to the continuation of record collections and earnings meeting expectations, particularly after the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings-per-share miss.
    • −Insiders recorded six sales and no purchases during the three months ending with the latest transaction on June 11, 2026, for net sales of $1.1 million, and the signal was classified as a strong sell. Nevertheless, insider sales remain a weak standalone signal because they may have been prearranged, and the data do not include evidence to the contrary.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is Buy, with an average price target of $100, which is also both the highest and lowest target, compared with a 52-week high of $104.98 and a low of $39.95. No published price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data, while the positive outlook warrants caution because earnings per share in fiscal Q2 2026 were $2.81 and fell short of the $3.07 estimate. The fact that all target levels are identical at $100 also provides no range reflecting variation between downside and upside scenarios.

    BuyAnalyst target: $100(+1.5%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    How does Encore Capital Group generate revenue?

    Encore purchases portfolios of charged-off consumer receivables and then works to collect them through Midland Credit Management in the United States and Cabot Credit Management in Europe. Its returns depend on purchasing portfolios at an appropriate price, achieving strong collections, and financing purchases at a competitive cost. In fiscal Q1 2026, debt purchasing revenue totaled $453 million, while servicing and other revenue totaled $23 million. Global collections reached $718 million, including $556 million for MCM and $161 million for Cabot.

    Why were fiscal Q2 2026 results mixed?

    Encore's revenue in fiscal Q2 2026 totaled approximately $491.9 million and exceeded analysts' expectations, supported by record global collections, execution in the United States, and growth in international collections. In contrast, earnings per share were $2.81 versus an estimate of $3.07, approximately 8.5% lower. Net income totaled $64.0 million, compared with $86.2 million in fiscal Q1 2026. Nevertheless, news on August 6, 2026 reported that the company raised its full-year outlook.

    How important is MCM to ECPG's performance?

    Midland Credit Management represents the U.S. business and the group's main operating driver. In fiscal Q1 2026, MCM's portfolio purchases totaled $316 million, within a global total of $363 million, while its collections rose 23% to a record $556 million. The business benefited from new technologies, digital channels, and operational innovation, and more than 50% of new payments are made through digital channels. These improvements raised the 2024 portfolio multiple to 2.5 and the 2025 portfolio multiple to 2.4.

    What is Encore's announced outlook for fiscal 2026?

    During the May 8, 2026 call, management projected global portfolio purchases of between $1.4 and $1.5 billion during fiscal 2026. It raised its global collections outlook to $2.8 billion, representing growth of 8%, and also projected 19% growth in earnings per share to $13. It maintained its cash efficiency margin outlook above 58%, and combined interest expense and other income near $300 million. Following fiscal Q2 2026 results, news on August 6, 2026 reported that the company raised its outlook, without providing updated figures in the data.

    What are the main risks facing Encore's business in Europe?

    Cabot operates in an environment characterized by weak consumer lending, low defaults, and continued strong competition, particularly in the United Kingdom. Encore therefore kept its European capital deployment selective, and Cabot's purchases totaled approximately $47 million in fiscal Q1 2026. Cabot's collections increased 7% to $161 million, but this growth benefited from a positive currency effect. Cabot's portfolio collection multiple in that quarter was also 2.2, below the starting multiple of 2.4 for MCM's 2026 portfolio.

    Does Encore use artificial intelligence in collections?

    Management said during the May 8, 2026 call that the company uses machine learning technologies and AI-like tools in modeling and pricing, and is testing newer tools through a test-and-learn approach. New technologies and digital channels helped increase MCM's collections to $556 million in fiscal Q1 2026. However, management explained that collection calls are complex and require empathy, and that voice tools are not yet ready to perform the role of account managers at the same level. Synthetic voices in collection calls also raise regulatory considerations, so the company is adopting them gradually and cautiously.