| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 92 | 10.5x | 17.8x | Top tier | |
Growth | 17 | -11.1% | 7.1% | Bottom tier | |
Quality | 68 | 11.9% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 59 | 2.1x | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | — | — | 2.12% | N/A | |
Momentum | 98 | 83.9% | 2.9% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 83 | 5 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy group whose operations span oil and gas exploration and production, transportation, refining, and marketing, allowing it to capture value across the entire hydrocarbon chain. The group also includes electricity transmission and toll-road businesses through ISA, alongside gas, renewable energy, and regasification projects; in Q2 FY2026, it supplied approximately 62% of Colombia's natural gas demand and 38% of its liquefied petroleum gas demand. The distribution of organic investments in H1 FY2026 demonstrates the weight of the core activities: 63% for hydrocarbons, 29% for electricity transmission and toll roads, and 8% for energy-transition initiatives.
In Q2 FY2026, the group reported revenue of 4.2 trillion Colombian pesos, EBITDA of 17.7 trillion pesos, and net income of 6.1 trillion pesos; management stated that these metrics increased by 35%, 59%, and 235%, respectively, compared with the same period of FY2025. The EBITDA margin reached 44%, an increase of approximately 6 percentage points, while H1 FY2026 net income reached 9 trillion pesos, with operating cash flow of 14.1 trillion pesos and free cash flow of 6 trillion pesos.
Refining led the operating earnings mix in Q2 FY2026, as the refineries recorded a record throughput of 439 thousand barrels per day and a gross refining margin of $29.8 per barrel, compared with $12.5 in the comparative period. Production reached 706 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day during the quarter, while the transportation segment moved more than 1.1 million barrels per day, an increase of 3.8%. At the annual-results level reported by EDGAR, revenue declined from $159,611.1 billion in FY2022 to $143,189.6 billion in FY2023 and then to $133,330.4 billion in FY2024, while net income declined over the same periods from $35,199.5 billion to $25,383.1 billion and then $18,498.9 billion.
The analyst consensus on EC stock is Neutral, with an average target of $16 and identical high and low targets of $16, indicating no dispersion among the available targets. This target is approximately 12% below the 52-week range high of $18.19, while the full range extends from $8.57 to $18.19; this breadth reflects the valuation's sensitivity to crude oil prices, refining margins, operational disruptions, and FEPC risks. The Neutral consensus does not provide a decisive bullish signal despite the improvement in Q2 FY2026 earnings and the Brava Energia transaction.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Net income reached 6.1 trillion Colombian pesos, or 3.4 times its level in Q2 FY2025, while EBITDA reached 17.7 trillion pesos. Results benefited from an average Brent price of $97 per barrel and a $3.67-per-barrel improvement in crude oil sales differentials compared with Q1 FY2026. Refining also recorded record throughput of 439 thousand barrels per day and a gross margin of $29.8 per barrel, compared with $12.5 in the comparative period.
In August 2026, Ecopetrol completed the acquisition of a controlling 51% stake in Brava Energia after purchasing an additional 25% and combining it with a prior agreement covering 26%. Management expects the stake to add approximately 42 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day and the consolidation of results to begin in Q3 FY2026. Conversely, the transaction will initially be financed with a short-term bridge loan, with a plan to refinance it through long-term credit or the capital markets.
Management maintained its FY2026 production target of between 730 thousand and 740 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, although the first-half average was 715 thousand and Q2 production was 706 thousand per day. The shortfall resulted mainly from a 76-day blockade in Meta and power disruptions that deferred up to 23 thousand barrels per day. The recovery plan includes well maintenance, improved power reliability, and seven additional wells in the Delaware Basin that could add between 4 thousand and 5 thousand barrels per day from late 2026 through 2027.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Copa Sul-1 achieved a maximum flow rate of 35 million cubic feet per day in initial tests, and the rate was constrained by the capacity of the testing equipment. Sandia-1, discovered in partnership with Petrobras, reached a depth of 5,440 meters on July 29, 2026 and is located 18 kilometers from Sirius. Ecopetrol is still evaluating the gas-bearing formations to estimate the resources, so the discoveries support offshore gas potential without the available data providing a final recoverable volume.
Receivables from the FEPC Fuel Price Stabilization Fund reached approximately 8 trillion pesos in June 2026, of which 79% related to Ecopetrol and 21% to the Cartagena refinery. Management expects the balance to range between 8 trillion and 12 trillion pesos by the end of FY2026, depending on Brent, the exchange rate, and diesel and gasoline crack spreads. The group received 1 trillion pesos during Q2 FY2026, but the deferral of a 1.6 trillion-peso payment to December 2026 affected quarterly cash flow.
The available consensus rating is Neutral, and the average price target is $16, with the highest and lowest targets identical at the same level. The target is approximately 12% below the 52-week range high of $18.19, while the range low is $8.57. The breadth of the range indicates the stock's sensitivity to energy prices, refining margins, and production, while the Neutral consensus does not reflect decisive bullish or bearish conviction.
