EL7.AI
Strategy BuilderCOT DataAdvanced NewsResearchNewEarnings CalendarEconomic Calendar
We use cookiesPrivacy Policy
EL7.AIEL7.AI

AI Financial Intelligence
Professional analysis of central bank decisions

© 2026 EL7.AI. All rights reserved.

Markets

  • News
  • Forex
  • Stocks
  • Crypto
  • Gold
  • Commodities
  • Indices
  • ETFs

Analysis

  • Fed
  • ECB
  • BLS
  • COT
  • Economic Calendar

Learn

  • Service Guide
  • Oil

Company

  • About
  • Contact
  • Data Methodology
  • AI Disclosure
  • Pricing
  • Enterprise
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Security
  • WhatsApp
Status data is currently unavailable

The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Home
Stocks
Dynex Capital, Inc.
DX

DX Dynex Capital, Inc.

Dynex Capital, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
12.52
▼ ⁦-0.32%⁩ (-0.04)
Market Cap$3.1B
Beta0.94
52w Low52w High
11.8314.93
Last Week
⁦-1.80%⁩
Last Month
⁦-3.17%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-3.77%⁩
Last Year
⁦-0.71%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall78
Strong — clearly above market medianContrarianF 3/8DistressBetter than 78% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
72
7.1x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
81
134.1%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
66
3.5%▼4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
23
24.2x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
97
16.29%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
42
2.7%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
72
5▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$13
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$15
⁦+16%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$15–$15⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$-74.94
⁦-699%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦8.5⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$-74.94–$15⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

Compare in the screener
Premium content

Get Your Premium Account Now

  • Stock Deep Analysis
  • The Advanced News Platform
Recommended
Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$14.50
⁦+15.8%⁩
Current Price $12.52·Median $14.50
Low
$14.50
High
$14.50
Street summary

Dynex Capital (DX) Price Target Revision Analysis

Bearish tilt

Dynex Capital stock has seen a clear downward revision in its price target over the past thirty days, with the average forecast falling from $16.33 to $14.5, a decline of 11.21%. This adjustment reflects a more conservative outlook by analysts, although the current price target remains higher than the current trading price of $12.91. There is a complete lack of forecast dispersion, as the high and low values coincide at $14.5, indicating a concentration of estimates amid limited coverage by a single analyst for the price target.

As of 2026-07-28
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.83
Buy
Analyst coverage
6
Buy conviction
67%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time6 analysts rating
1
3
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.83 → 3.83
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-21
    Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-04-24
    UBS
    Neutral· $14.50
  • = Reiterate2026-01-29
    Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    7.10x
    5.03x40.26x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    7.96x
    5.89x47.13x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    27.61x
    3.68x29.40x
    Expensive
  • FCF Yield
    7.6%
    -23.1%16.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    134.1%
    -14.0%37.7%
    Exceptional
  • EPS Growth YoY
    282.5%
    -121.8%181.8%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    76.4%
    -5.0%81.8%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    3.5%
    -4.2%9.5%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    24.21x
    1.55x12.39x
    Financial risk
  • Dividend Yield
    16.3%
    0.6%15.6%
    High
  • Payout Ratio
    85.8%
    31.2%370.0%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    -0.83
    -0.883.10
    Weak
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-20 data

Company Overview

Dynex Capital, Inc. is a mortgage real estate investment trust focused on agency-guaranteed mortgage-backed securities, generating its income primarily from the yield on its Agency MBS portfolio after financing and hedging costs. The company relies on financing and leverage and uses interest rate swaps and futures contracts to manage interest rate risk, while allocating investments across different coupons and collateral characteristics to limit prepayment risk and asset duration extension.

In fiscal Q2 2026, total economic return was 6.4%, including ordinary dividends of 0.51 dollars per share and a 0.30-dollar-per-share increase in portfolio value. Book value rose to 12.90 dollars per share from 12.60 dollars at the end of the previous quarter, and net interest income increased to 0.42 dollars per share from 0.40 dollars, supported by lower financing costs and the deployment of capital into investments with attractive yields. The portfolio's fair value reached 27.6 billion dollars, up 11% from the previous quarter, while the Agency MBS portfolio grew by more than 40% during the first half of fiscal 2026.

Dynex ended fiscal Q2 2026 with a capital base of 3.1 billion dollars, compared with 2.4 billion dollars at the end of fiscal 2025, after raising 391 million dollars during the quarter on terms that management said were accretive to book value. Adjusted leverage was 8.1 times total shareholders' equity, down from 8.6 times, while cash and unencumbered securities reached 1.6 billion dollars, equivalent to more than 51% of shareholders' equity. The portfolio is concentrated in Agency MBS, making interest income, book value, and liquidity more important operating indicators in the provided data than traditional revenue and profit margin measures.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Dynex's portfolio became the third-largest among Agency mREITs according to an August 2, 2026 report, after its fair value rose from 8.6 billion dollars to 27.6 billion dollars over two years, including growth of 11% in fiscal Q2 2026.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Net interest income increased to 0.42 dollars per share in fiscal Q2 2026 from 0.40 dollars in the previous quarter, as the company benefited from lower financing costs and the deployment of capital into assets with attractive yields.
  • The company raised 391 million dollars during fiscal Q2 2026, and its capital base increased to 3.1 billion dollars from 2.4 billion dollars at the end of fiscal 2025, enabling it to expand its Agency MBS portfolio by more than 40% during the first half of fiscal 2026.
  • Management lowered its forecast for net mortgage supply in 2026 to 165 billion dollars from 200 billion dollars and believes demand from bond funds, pension companies, and money managers supports the technical conditions of the Agency MBS market.
  • Management typically targets leverage within a range of 7.5 to 8.5 times, while maintaining liquidity of 1.6 billion dollars to deploy when spreads widen; total economic return was 6.4% in fiscal Q2 2026.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The combination of a 6.4% total economic return, 2.4% book value growth to 12.90 dollars per share, and dividends of 0.51 dollars per share in fiscal Q2 2026 provides numerical evidence of the portfolio's ability to generate income and increase value during the period.
    • +Dynex's increasing scale may provide greater operating efficiencies, liquidity, and institutional interest, as its capital base has increased fivefold since 2022 and the portfolio reached 27.6 billion dollars after standing at 8.6 billion dollars two years ago.
    • +Liquidity of 1.6 billion dollars, or more than 51% of shareholders' equity, supports the company's ability to withstand market volatility and purchase Agency MBS when spreads widen instead of being forced to sell assets under unfavorable conditions.
    • +Income is based on agency-guaranteed assets that can be traded and financed, while management expects attractive Agency MBS spreads, weak refinancing activity, and projected net supply of 165 billion dollars in 2026 to help sustain cash flows.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The portfolio's rapid expansion from 8.6 billion dollars to 27.6 billion dollars over two years increases the scale of exposure to interest rate volatility and Agency MBS spreads, even as adjusted leverage declined to 8.1 times in fiscal Q2 2026; managing this risk depends heavily on interest rate swaps and futures contracts.
    • −Artificial intelligence technologies could accelerate borrower refinancing, increasing prepayment risk and the negative convexity of mortgage-backed securities; management emphasized that loans that are easier to refinance may be repaid quickly and that this effect had not been fully priced into the market as of July 20, 2026.
    • −Book value remains sensitive to widening mortgage spreads, as spreads widened by approximately 3 basis points through July 17, 2026, and the adjusted book value estimate declined to 12.67 dollars per share from 12.90 dollars on June 30, 2026.
    • −The portfolio is exposed to monetary policy, housing policy, and regulatory changes related to government agencies, and management said it is monitoring changes in GSE policy as the midterm elections approach because purchases by these entities are an important factor in limiting the widening of mortgage spreads.
    • −Geopolitical shocks, yield volatility, and changes in the shape of the yield curve could lead to book losses or require hedging adjustments; accordingly, management kept leverage within a range of 7.5 to 8.5 times and ruled out higher leverage levels in the macroeconomic environment it described as high-risk.
    • −The analyst consensus is Neutral, and the sole target of 14.50 dollars is only 0.43 dollars below the 52-week range high of 14.93 dollars, making the valuation highly dependent on achieving improvement in book value and Agency MBS spreads rather than on a substantial widening of the range of analyst targets.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus on DX is Neutral, and the average, highest, and lowest targets are identical at 14.50 dollars, so the target range provides no diversity in estimates. This target is close to the 52-week range high of 14.93 dollars and substantially above its low of 11.83 dollars; this range reflects the valuation's sensitivity to book value and Agency MBS spreads, particularly after the book value estimate declined from 12.90 dollars on June 30, 2026 to 12.67 dollars on July 17, 2026.

    HoldAnalyst target: $14.5(+15.8%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    How does Dynex Capital generate profits?

    Dynex invests primarily in Agency MBS and earns the spread between the yields on these assets and its financing and hedging costs. The company uses interest rate swaps and futures contracts to reduce the impact of yield movements, while also diversifying the portfolio across multiple coupons and collateral characteristics. In fiscal Q2 2026, net interest income increased to 0.42 dollars per share from 0.40 dollars in the previous quarter.

    What were DX's most important results in fiscal Q2 2026?

    Total economic return was 6.4%, including ordinary dividends of 0.51 dollars per share and a 0.30-dollar-per-share increase in portfolio value. Book value rose to 12.90 dollars per share on June 30, 2026 from 12.60 dollars at the end of the previous quarter. The portfolio's fair value also reached 27.6 billion dollars, up 11% quarter over quarter.

    Why did Dynex expand its portfolio so rapidly?

    The company increased its portfolio from 8.6 billion dollars to 27.6 billion dollars over two years and became the third-largest Agency mREIT according to an August 2, 2026 report. Management believes greater scale may enhance liquidity and investor visibility and support a better valuation, particularly given passive investment flows that tend to favor larger companies. Dynex partially funded this expansion by raising 391 million dollars in fiscal Q2 2026 and increasing its capital base to 3.1 billion dollars.

    Are DX's dividends supported by portfolio performance?

    Dynex paid ordinary dividends of 0.51 dollars per share during fiscal Q2 2026, as part of a total economic return of 6.4%. Management said during the July 20, 2026 call that it was generating a double-digit dividend yield, while net interest income increased to 0.42 dollars per share. The sustainability of income remains tied to financing costs, Agency MBS spreads, and the speed of asset prepayments.

    What impact does artificial intelligence have on Dynex's portfolio?

    Management believes lender algorithms may accelerate mortgage refinancing, increasing the likelihood of prepayment for securities that are easier to refinance. This is prompting Dynex to focus on specific loan pools with lower balances or characteristics that provide greater protection against prepayment. Management said on July 20, 2026 that this shift makes security selection critically important and that its effect had not been fully priced into the mortgage market.

    What are the main protective elements on Dynex's balance sheet?

    Cash and unencumbered securities totaled 1.6 billion dollars at the end of fiscal Q2 2026, representing more than 51% of total shareholders' equity. Adjusted leverage declined to 8.1 times from 8.6 times in the previous quarter, while management described a range of 7.5 to 8.5 times as comfortable under current conditions. This liquidity gives the company flexibility to purchase Agency MBS when spreads widen, but it does not eliminate interest rate and book value volatility risks.