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Stocks
Darden Restaurants, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall74
Strong — clearly above market medianSuper StockF 7/9Grey zoneBetter than 74% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
55
20.2x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
59
9.4%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
70
16.6%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
57
2.8x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
67
2.86%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
63
3.4%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
61
18▲3Around median
DRI

DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc.

Darden Restaurants, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
209.82
▲ ⁦+1.10%⁩ (+2.29)
Market Cap$23.8B
Beta0.58
52w Low52w High
169.00229.76
Last Week
⁦-4.64%⁩
Last Month
⁦-4.15%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+3.03%⁩
Last Year
⁦-0.96%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$210
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$237
⁦+13%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$212–$250⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$169
⁦-19%⁩
Sees it slightly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$169–$237⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$234.89
⁦+11.9%⁩
Current Price $209.82·Median $237.00
Low
$212.00
High
$250.00
Current price
$209.82
Average target
$234.89
Street summary

A slight rise in consensus with divergence remaining

Bullish tilt

The consensus price target rose to 234.89 from 229.11 over the last 30 days, an increase of 5.78 or 2.52%, while the number of analysts remained at five. Over the last 7 days and the last day, the increase was limited, from 234.44 to 234.89, amounting to 0.45 or 0.19%. The current range is between 212 and 250, while the median is 237, reflecting clear variation among estimates despite the improvement in consensus.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+2.5%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.64
Buy
Analyst coverage
28
Buy conviction
61%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
18%
Analyst ratings over time28 analysts rating
2
15
10
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.67 → 3.64
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-11
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    Buy
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    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-09-11
    Stephens & Co.
    Positive
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    20.16x
    4.56x36.49x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    18.46x
    3.79x30.29x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    13.99x
    2.75x22.03x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    4.7%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    9.4%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    17.1%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    20.3%
    12.0%66.5%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    16.6%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.76x
    0.65x5.48x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    2.9%
    0.1%5.9%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    57.4%
    8.9%99.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    2.58
    -2.656.14
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-06-25 data

Company Overview

Darden Restaurants operates a portfolio of approximately 2,200 restaurants across brands serving multiple occasions and price points, led by Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse, alongside Yard House, Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen, Chuy's, Ruth's Chris Steak House, The Capital Grille, Eddie V's, and Seasons 52. Most of the business comes from restaurant sales, while international franchise agreements add income tied to a percentage of licensed restaurant sales. The company supports its brands with an owned food distribution network, direct sourcing from producers, and a proprietary point-of-sale system that connects demand forecasting with labor and payroll management.

In fiscal Q4 2026, revenue reached $3.7 billion, up 13.7% year over year, driven by 4.6% same-restaurant sales growth, the net addition of 43 new restaurants, and the 14th fiscal week. Gross profit according to EDGAR data was approximately $822.9 million, equivalent to a gross margin of about 22.2%, while net income was $404.9 million, equivalent to a net margin of about 10.9%. On an adjusted basis, diluted earnings per share from continuing operations increased 22.8% to $3.66, and restaurant-level profit margin improved by 50 basis points to 22.1%.

Performance varied among brands in fiscal Q4 2026; Olive Garden's total sales increased 11.4%, with same-restaurant sales growth of 2.4% and a segment profit margin of 24.3%, while LongHorn's total sales rose 21.9%, with same-restaurant growth of 9.5% and a margin of 21.2%. Fine Dining segment sales increased 10.9%, with same-restaurant growth of 1.9%, while Other Business segment sales rose 9.8%, with same-restaurant growth of 4.6% and a margin of 17.9%. In fiscal 2026, Olive Garden represented approximately 42% of sales and 47% of segment profits, down from 50% and 55%, respectively, in fiscal 2019, reflecting the expanding contribution of LongHorn and the rest of the portfolio.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Operating performance in fiscal Q4 2026 outpaced the restaurant industry; same-restaurant sales grew 4.6% and guest traffic increased 1.3%, with both same-restaurant sales and guest counts exceeding the industry benchmark by more than 300 basis points.
  • LongHorn was the strongest driver in fiscal Q4 2026, with same-restaurant sales growth of 9.5%, a 4.2% increase in traffic, and the net addition of 27 new restaurants. The brand exceeded the industry same-restaurant sales benchmark by 810 basis points, and average unit sales reached $5.6 million after same-restaurant sales grew by more than 20% over three years.
  • Darden is targeting fiscal 2027 revenue of between $13.6 billion and $13.75 billion, same-restaurant sales growth of between 2.5% and 3.5%, and 75 to 80 gross new restaurant openings, in addition to converting 11 Bahama Breeze locations. It expects earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of between $2.26 billion and $2.29 billion and diluted earnings per share of between $11.10 and $11.35.
  • Menu innovations are supporting demand at the major brands; Olive Garden's lighter-portion menu created an 80-basis-point drag on the average check in fiscal Q4 2026, but its users returned more frequently, while Calabrian Steak & Shrimp Bucatini became a guest favorite. At Yard House, the new burger, pizza, and taco platforms increased guest satisfaction and simplified in-restaurant execution.
  • International expansion represents an additional source of growth through franchising; signed development agreements included 40 restaurants in India, 40 in Spain, and 30 in Canada. Management expects to open 20 to 25 international restaurants in a strong year, with the annual contribution to earnings per share remaining in the range of a few single-digit cents.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Darden ended fiscal 2026 with sales exceeding $13 billion for the first time, following revenue growth of 9.4% and same-restaurant sales growth of 4.5%, while adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 11.4% to $10.64.
  • +The company combines traffic growth with improved efficiency; in fiscal Q4 2026, traffic increased 1.3%, and restaurant labor costs as a percentage of sales declined by 40 basis points due to productivity and operating leverage despite labor inflation of 3.2%. This helped raise restaurant-level profit margin to 22.1%.
  • +Darden's portfolio diversity provides more than one growth driver; Olive Garden achieved annual same-restaurant sales growth of 4%, LongHorn's growth exceeded 7%, and Yard House's growth reached approximately 5.6% in fiscal 2026. All three brands also recorded positive same-restaurant sales for the fifth consecutive year.
  • +The fiscal 2027 plan provides clear organic growth from 75 to 80 new openings and 11 conversions of Bahama Breeze locations, with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin expected to remain stable or positive despite expansion costs. Management stated that cash returns on new restaurants exceed its expectations and that internal rates of return exceed the cost of capital by hundreds of basis points.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

The analyst consensus on DRI is “Buy,” with an average price target of $233.44 and a range of $212 to $250. The average target is approximately 1.6% above the top of the 52-week range of $229.76, while the stock's full range extends from $169 to $229.76. Earnings growth and restaurant expansion support this valuation, but the low target of $212 reflects the risks of slowing same-restaurant sales, inflationary pressures, and opening costs in fiscal 2027.

BuyAnalyst target: $233.44(+11.3%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were Darden's key results in fiscal Q4 2026?

Revenue reached $3.7 billion, up 13.7% year over year, and same-restaurant sales grew 4.6%. Net income according to EDGAR was approximately $404.9 million, while adjusted earnings from continuing operations reached $422 million, or $3.66 per diluted share. Restaurant-level profit margin improved by 50 basis points to 22.1%, with $310 million returned to shareholders through $172 million in dividends and $138 million in share repurchases.

Why is LongHorn growing faster than the rest of Darden's portfolio?

LongHorn achieved same-restaurant sales growth of 9.5% in fiscal Q4 2026, with traffic up 4.2% and the net addition of 27 new restaurants. Management attributed the performance to approximately ten years of investment in food quality and improved service, with scores for correctly cooked steaks reaching their highest levels. A social campaign to bring back lamb also helped sell more than the previous year in half the time, while segment profit margin increased by 110 basis points to 21.2%.

What is Darden's outlook for fiscal 2027?

The company expects revenue of between $13.6 billion and $13.75 billion and same-restaurant sales growth of between 2.5% and 3.5%. The plan includes 75 to 80 gross new restaurant openings and the conversion of 11 Bahama Breeze locations, with capital expenditures of approximately $875 million. Expected earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization range from $2.26 billion to $2.29 billion, while diluted earnings per share are expected to range from $11.10 to $11.35.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −Reliance on Olive Garden remains high despite improved diversification; the brand accounted for 42% of sales and 47% of segment profits in fiscal 2026. Therefore, any sustained slowdown at the brand, for which management expects fiscal 2027 same-restaurant sales growth to be near the low end of the 2.5% to 3.5% range, could materially affect the group's results.
  • −Commodity and expansion costs are pressuring margins; restaurant-level profit margin contracted by 20 basis points in fiscal 2026 due to higher commodity costs and inflation not being fully passed through to prices. The company expects commodity inflation of approximately 4% in fiscal Q1 2027, along with about $15 million in pre-opening costs and first-year inefficiencies, equivalent to a $0.10 drag on earnings per share.
  • −Fiscal 2027 guidance indicates a slowdown from fiscal 2026; targeted revenue of between $13.6 billion and $13.75 billion compares with revenue of $13.2 billion, after the company achieved annual growth of 9.4% in fiscal 2026. The expected same-restaurant sales growth range also declines to 2.5%–3.5% from 4.5% in fiscal 2026.
  • −Consumer sensitivity remains a risk to traffic, as management described sentiment as cautious and recorded weakness among guests under 35 years old in fiscal Q4 2026. The fiscal 2027 same-restaurant sales guidance range also assumes traffic ranging from flat to positive growth, making the upper end of the outlook dependent on an improving economic environment.
  • −Supply chain and energy risks remain; long-term restrictions on interstate cattle movement could cause temporary disruption to beef supplies, while the company expects high-single-digit seafood inflation during the first half of fiscal 2027. Fuel surcharges could also add tens of basis points to cost-of-sales inflation, with the impact potentially approaching 50 to 60 basis points at its peak.
  • −The range of analyst targets reflects a limited margin for error; the average target of $233.44 is only slightly above the top of the 52-week range of $229.76, while the lowest target is $212 and the highest is $250. This means achieving a valuation closer to the upper end requires delivering on fiscal 2027 guidance despite slowing growth, commodity pressures, and opening costs.
How is Olive Garden's lighter-portion menu affecting sales and margins?

The lighter-portion menu created an 80-basis-point drag on the average check in fiscal Q4 2026, with adoption in the low-to-mid-single-digit percentage range. Demand was concentrated during weekend lunches, and management stated that guests who choose it return more frequently. Despite an investment equivalent to approximately 50 basis points in the brand's margin, Olive Garden's profit margin increased by 50 basis points to 24.3%, and management expects a stable or positive margin in fiscal 2027.

How significant is the risk of beef inflation for Darden?

Beef inflation was approximately 12% in fiscal 2026, but it did not prevent LongHorn from increasing its segment margin to 21.2% in fiscal Q4 2026. Management expects mid-to-high-single-digit inflation in fiscal Q1 2027, followed by slight deflation in fiscal Q2 2027, resulting in low-single-digit inflation for the full year. The owned distribution network and direct supplier contracts mitigate risks, but potential restrictions on interstate cattle movement could cause temporary supply disruption.

When will Darden report fiscal Q1 2027 results?

Darden plans to release fiscal Q1 2027 results on September 24, 2026, before the market opens, followed by a conference call. Investors will focus on management's expectation for low-to-mid-single-digit earnings-per-share growth during the quarter. Commodity costs will also be central because the company expects inflation of approximately 4% in fiscal Q1 2027, the highest expected level of the year.