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DRDGOLD Limited
DRD

DRD DRDGOLD Limited

DRDGOLD Limited · NYSE
Market Open
26.30
▲ ⁦+0.73%⁩ (+0.19)
Market Cap$2.3B
Beta0.49
52w Low52w High
19.4739.37
Last Week
⁦-1.90%⁩
Last Month
⁦+6.87%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+2.73%⁩
Last Year
⁦+25.78%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall97
Excellent — top fifth of the marketContrarianF 6/8Better than 97% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
98
0.9x▲17.6xTop tier
▸
Growth
95
36.2%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
93
—4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
85
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
63
—2.15%Around median
▸
Momentum
38
17.7%▲2.3%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
20
1▼3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$26
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$35
⁦+33%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$35–$35⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
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Monthly plan
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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$35.00
⁦+33.1%⁩
Current Price $26.30·Median $35.00
Low
$35.00
High
$35.00
Street summary

Stability of DRDGOLD Price Forecasts

Bullish tilt

The price target for DRDGOLD has remained stable at 35 over the past thirty days, indicating a potential growth gap of approximately 13% compared to the current price of 30.92. This consistency reflects a lack of dispersion among analysts, as the current consensus is based on the view of only one analyst, which reduces the diversity of valuation opinions regarding the stock despite the positive outlook.

As of 2026-08-24
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
1
Buy conviction
100%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time1 analysts rating
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-20
    H.C. Wainwright
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-16
    H.C. Wainwright
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-01-30
    H.C. Wainwright
    Buy· $46.50
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    0.92x
    4.82x38.52x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    0.17x
    2.59x20.75x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    54.6%
    -19.9%9.2%
    Exceptional
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    36.2%
    -21.2%91.5%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    —
    —
  • Gross Margin
    53.0%
    7.3%58.9%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-19 data

Company Overview

DRDGOLD Limited reprocesses gold-mining tailings in South Africa, extracting gold from massive volumes of low-grade material through its Ergo and Far West Gold Recoveries operations. Its economic model depends on processing approximately 25 million tonnes annually at high efficiency, with an average recovered grade of slightly less than 0.2 grams per tonne, then benefiting from the spread between the gold price and processing costs. The company deliberately remains unhedged against the gold price, giving revenue and cash flows direct exposure to upward and downward movements in the metal.

In its fiscal 2026 Q4 call, the company announced full fiscal 2026 results without presenting a separate quarterly financial statement. Revenue reached 11.2 billion rand, up 42%, operating profit was 6.4 billion rand, up 83%, and headline earnings were 4.2 billion rand, up 89%. The operating margin rose from 45% in fiscal 2025 to 58% in fiscal 2026, while the all-in sustaining cost margin increased from 39% to 53%.

Ergo accounted for approximately 8.1 billion rand of fiscal 2026 revenue, compared with 3.1 billion rand from Far West, representing approximately 72% and 28% of total revenue, respectively. Ergo’s operating profit doubled from 2 billion rand to 4.1 billion rand, while Far West’s operating profit rose from 1.5 billion rand to 2.3 billion rand at an exceptional margin of 76%. For comparison, the EDGAR statements for fiscal 2025 show revenue of $7.9 billion, net income of $2.2 billion, and earnings per share of 2.589, according to the units stated in the submitted data.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The average realized gold price rose 40% during fiscal 2026, and because DRDGOLD is an unhedged producer, the increase directly translated into 42% revenue growth to 11.2 billion rand and 83% operating profit growth to 6.4 billion rand.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Fiscal 2026 production came in just below five tonnes, exceeding the upper end of guidance by approximately 5,000 ounces, supported by a 2% improvement in yield to slightly less than 0.2 grams per tonne and the efficiency of the Ergo and Far West plants.
  • Fiscal 2027 guidance targets production of between 160,000 and 170,000 ounces, with cash costs slightly above one million rand per kilogram, all-in sustaining costs of 1.2 million rand per kilogram, and planned capital expenditure exceeding three billion rand.
  • Free cash flow reached 2.3 billion rand in fiscal 2026, up 85%, despite capital expenditure of 3.5 billion rand; this enabled the declaration of a final dividend of 1.20 rand per share after an interim dividend of 0.50 rand per share.
  • The Daggafontein facility was commissioned at 750,000 tonnes per month, the Far West pipelines were approximately 95% complete, and the RTSF facility was nearly two-thirds complete as of June 30, 2026. The company targets having RTSF available to process 1.2 million tonnes per month in fiscal 2028 Q1, alongside doubling the DP2 plant’s capacity from 600,000 to 1.2 million tonnes per month.
  • The solar facility generated 146 gigawatt-hours during fiscal 2026 and reduced the Eskom-supplied electricity required to process each tonne from 13.6 kilowatt-hours in fiscal 2024 to 8.6 kilowatt-hours. Management estimated Ergo’s savings at approximately 13.50 to 14.50 rand per tonne, while carbon emissions declined from 303,000 to 233,000 tonnes.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +DRDGOLD demonstrated its ability to convert higher gold prices into faster earnings growth, as a 40% rise in the gold price increased fiscal 2026 revenue by 42%, but lifted operating profit by 83% and headline earnings by 89%.
    • +The Vision 2028 program provides a defined path to increase Far West’s capacity to 1.2 million tonnes per month and add approximately one tonne of gold production, with a 35-year operating life for the RTSF facility and four years added to Far West’s life after 67 million tonnes from Kloof 2 were added to reserves.
    • +The company ended fiscal 2026 debt-free with approximately 2.8 billion rand in cash, after generating 5.7 billion rand in net operating cash flow and 2.3 billion rand in free cash flow despite its largest capital reinvestment program in approximately 20 years.
    • +DRDGOLD has paid dividends for 19 consecutive fiscal years, and total dividends declared for fiscal 2026 amounted to approximately 65% of free cash flow. Management believes that lower capital expenditure after Vision 2028 could increase the amount available for distribution if gold prices, costs, and production remain stable.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Financial performance depends heavily on the gold price because DRDGOLD deliberately keeps production unhedged; therefore, a decline in gold would pressure revenue and margins, particularly as management explained that the economics of trucking higher-grade material deteriorate when the price falls.
    • −Vision 2028 carries significant execution risks, as the company spent 3.5 billion rand on capital expenditure in fiscal 2026 and plans to spend more than three billion rand in fiscal 2027, while RTSF remains approximately two-thirds complete and DP2, Libanon, and RTSF must be commissioned in a coordinated manner to reach 1.2 million tonnes per month.
    • −Costs face pressure from fuel, transportation, and chemicals; the group’s cash operating cost rose 7% per kilogram and 10% per tonne in fiscal 2026, while Far West’s cash costs increased 10% to 744 million rand. Management also expects Far West’s costs to continue rising during fiscal 2027 until the benefits of the Vision 2028 expansion are realized.
    • −Ergo’s long operating life depends on regulatory approvals for Withok, including environmental authorization, a waste management license, and a water-use license. Management acknowledged that Withok will not meet the original fiscal 2028 schedule and that a delay until 2030 could reduce Ergo’s throughput to a range of between 750,000 and one million tonnes per month and cost the company additional money.
    • −The company deliberately keeps processing near 25 million tonnes annually to protect the safety factors of its tailings storage facilities, limiting its ability to increase production before the new infrastructure is completed. Access to RTSF and its full commissioning are also affected by weather and regulatory approvals, and the company will not increase DP2 processing immediately upon completion of the plant before the deposition site is ready.
    • −Valuation risk is difficult to measure using the price-to-earnings multiple because the provided data does not show a multiple for the stock, while the highest and lowest analyst targets are both $35. This convergence virtually eliminates target dispersion and does not provide a broad range for testing gold-price scenarios or Vision 2028 delays, while the target is approximately 11% below the 52-week range high of $39.37.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $35 and identical high and low targets of $35; this target is approximately 11% below the 52-week range high of $39.37 and approximately 85% above its low of $18.87. No price-to-earnings multiple is available in the data, so the stock’s valuation depends more heavily on its sensitivity to the gold price, the sustainability of its 58% operating margin, and Vision 2028’s ability to convert high capital expenditure into additional production and cash flow.

    BuyAnalyst target: $35(+33.1%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    How does DRDGOLD generate its revenue and profits?

    DRDGOLD processes low-grade mining tailings through Ergo and Far West Gold Recoveries instead of relying on deep primary-ore mining. Together, the two operations processed approximately 25 million tonnes in fiscal 2026 at a yield of slightly less than 0.2 grams per tonne and produced just under five tonnes of gold. Ergo’s revenue reached approximately 8.1 billion rand and Far West’s revenue approximately 3.1 billion rand, while Far West’s operating margin reached 76%. Because the company does not hedge against gold, the metal’s price directly affects revenue and margins.

    What were DRDGOLD’s key fiscal 2026 results?

    Revenue reached 11.2 billion rand in fiscal 2026, up 42%, driven primarily by a 40% increase in the realized gold price and a 1% increase in gold sold at Ergo. Operating profit rose 83% to 6.4 billion rand, and headline earnings increased 89% to 4.2 billion rand. The operating margin also rose from 45% to 58%, while free cash flow increased 85% to 2.3 billion rand after capital expenditure of 3.5 billion rand.

    How will the Vision 2028 program change DRDGOLD’s production?

    Vision 2028 includes expanding DP2 from 600,000 to 1.2 million tonnes per month, approximately 135 kilometers of pipelines, and an RTSF facility with a capacity of 800 million tonnes. RTSF construction was approximately two-thirds complete as of June 30, 2026, while the pipelines were approximately 95% complete, and the new smelting facility at DP2 produced its first gold bar on July 14, 2026. The company targets having RTSF available at full capacity in fiscal 2028 Q1 and expects the program to support the addition of approximately one tonne of gold production and a 35-year operating life at Far West.

    Can DRDGOLD maintain dividends during the expansion?

    Free cash flow reached 2.3 billion rand in fiscal 2026 despite capital expenditure of 3.5 billion rand, and the company ended the period with approximately 2.8 billion rand in cash and no debt. It declared a final dividend of 1.20 rand per share, in addition to an interim dividend of 0.50 rand per share, equivalent to approximately 65% of free cash flow. Fiscal 2026 marked the nineteenth consecutive year in which DRDGOLD paid a dividend. However, management linked dividend growth after Vision 2028 to lower capital expenditure and stable gold prices, costs, and production.

    What are DRDGOLD’s main risks in fiscal 2027 and beyond?

    The company targets production of between 160,000 and 170,000 ounces in fiscal 2027, but expects cash costs slightly above one million rand per kilogram and all-in sustaining costs of 1.2 million rand per kilogram. Achieving the expansion depends on completing DP2, Libanon, and RTSF, as well as securing regulatory approvals for Withok, which has fallen behind the original fiscal 2028 schedule. Management explained that a delay to Withok until 2030 could reduce Ergo’s throughput to between 750,000 and one million tonnes per month. Margins are also directly exposed to lower gold prices and higher diesel, transportation, carbon, and cyanide costs.

    How do DRDGOLD’s energy efficiency and sustainability look?

    The solar facility generated 146 gigawatt-hours in fiscal 2026 and reduced processing’s dependence on Eskom electricity from 13.6 kilowatt-hours per tonne in fiscal 2024 to 8.6 kilowatt-hours per tonne. Management estimated energy savings at Ergo of between 13.50 and 14.50 rand per tonne, while carbon emissions declined from 303,000 to 233,000 tonnes. Potable water use also fell 23%, saving 900 million liters, and the dust-emissions exceedance rate was 0.5%. The company also plans to source 30 megawatts from a renewable-energy facility through the grid in the coming years.