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Home
Stocks
Domino's Pizza, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall48
Balanced — near the middle of the marketContrarianF 8/9Grey zoneBetter than 48% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
62
17.7x17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
41
5.2%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
76
68.3%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
42
4.3x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
77
2.39%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
15
-22.5%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
45
18▲3Around median
DPZ

DPZ Domino's Pizza, Inc.

Domino's Pizza, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
311.60
▼ ⁦-1.80%⁩ (-5.70)
Market Cap$10.5B
Beta0.95
52w Low52w High
282.00469.00
Last Week
⁦-10.12%⁩
Last Month
⁦-10.42%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-0.67%⁩
Last Year
⁦-30.60%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$312
Analyst target · 10 analysts
$373
⁦+20%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$315–$480⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$192
⁦-38%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦8.6⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$192–$373⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 10 analysts setting price target
$378.79
⁦+21.6%⁩
Current Price $311.60·Median $372.50
Low
$315.00
High
$480.00
Current price
$311.60
Average target
$378.79
Street summary

Target price average declines amid clear divergence

The average target price for DPZ remained at 378.79 over the last day and seven days, but declined over 30 days from 396.44 to 378.79, a decrease of 17.65 or 4.45%. The current price is 317.3, versus a wide target range between 315 and 480; this reflects significant divergence among analysts, with the lower bound near the current price and the median at 372.5.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-4.5%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.47
Hold
Analyst coverage
30
Buy conviction
47%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
53%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time30 analysts rating
1
13
15
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.56 → 3.47
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-10
    TD Cowen
    Hold
  • = Reiterate2026-09-02
    UBS
    Buy
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-08-10
    Loop Capital Markets
    Hold
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    17.66x
    4.56x36.49x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    15.35x
    3.79x30.29x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    14.27x
    2.75x22.03x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    6.4%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    5.2%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    2.4%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    40.0%
    12.0%66.5%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    68.3%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    4.35x
    0.65x5.48x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    2.4%
    0.1%5.9%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    42.3%
    8.9%99.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    2.82
    -2.656.14
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-20 data

Company Overview

Domino's Pizza, Inc. operates a global franchise network comprising franchisees in more than 90 markets, and its economics depend on franchise fees and royalties, supply chain operations, and a number of company-owned stores. Higher order volumes support these drivers together: they increase franchisee sales and the associated fees, raise supply chain volumes, and add customers to the Flywheel loyalty program. Management says the brand captures approximately 23% of the pizza category, after a doubling of U.S. order volumes since the end of 2008 helped add approximately $7 billion in retail sales, more than 2,100 net new stores, and an approximately 240% increase in EBITDA at franchisee stores.

In fiscal Q2 2026, revenue was $1.2 billion, gross profit was $478.2 million, net income was $135.8 million, and earnings per share were $4.07. Based on the reported rounded revenue figure, this equates to a gross margin of approximately 39.9% and a net income margin of approximately 11.3%. Adjusted operating income, excluding the impact of foreign currency and refranchising gains, also increased 2.6%, supported by higher U.S. and international franchise royalties and fees and growth in supply chain gross profit dollars, partially offset by higher general and administrative expenses related to the company's biennial global gathering.

The business mix in fiscal Q2 2026 reflects stronger growth from geographic expansion than from existing-store sales: global retail sales increased 3%, excluding foreign currency, driven by the addition of nearly 1,000 net stores over 12 months. U.S. retail sales grew 1.9% with 26 net new stores, while international retail sales increased 4.1% with 183 net new stores; however, comparable-store sales rose only 0.1% in the U.S. and declined 0.1% internationally. Within the U.S. market, carryout sales increased 1.1% versus a 0.7% decline in delivery, showing that order growth did not fully translate into strong sales growth because of a lower average order value.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Domino's achieved meaningful order growth during fiscal Q2 2026 in the overall business and in delivery and carryout separately, while management estimated that order volumes in the broader quick-service restaurant sector were flat; this difference supports market share gains and feeds the Flywheel program and supply chain.
  • Weakness in average order value became the limiting factor for results: pricing increased only 0.2%, and Premium Series and Slice Sauce did not deliver the expected mix needed to offset the comparison with the higher-priced Stuffed Crust launch in the prior period, limiting U.S. comparable-store sales growth to 0.1%.
  • The Uber and DoorDash channels continue to expand the customer base, and Domino's believes it has become the largest pizza company on both platforms. Management estimates that 50% of aggregator-platform orders are incremental, with higher pricing designed to make franchisee profitability approximately neutral regardless of the ordering channel.
  • Management stated on the July 20, 2026 call that it adjusted the marketing calendar for the second half of fiscal 2026, adding Stuffed Crust to the Best Deal Ever promotion, and also planned to launch a new pizza product during fiscal Q3 2026 to target a consumption occasion that the pizza category currently does not serve well.
  • The company maintained its fiscal 2026 outlook for low-single-digit comparable-store sales growth in the U.S. and international markets, mid-single-digit global retail sales growth, and mid- to high-single-digit adjusted operating income growth. Conversely, it revised its net new U.S. store outlook from more than 175 to approximately 175 because of economic pressure, a weaker development pipeline, and franchisee profitability.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The positive case rests on order growth in fiscal Q1 and Q2 2026 despite flat quick-service restaurant sector orders by management's estimate, which could support market share, repeat purchases, and supply chain profitability over the longer term.
  • +Aggregator platforms represent a quantified incremental growth opportunity; management estimates that 50% of its orders through these channels are incremental and says pricing approximately preserves franchisee profitability neutrality, with room for further growth even after becoming the leading pizza company on Uber and DoorDash.
  • +Store expansion continues to support growth; the system added nearly 1,000 net stores over 12 months, including 209 net stores in fiscal Q2 2026 across the U.S. and international markets. Management also says that approximately 80% of the carryout business generated by a new U.S. store is incremental.
  • +The company repurchased approximately 632 thousand shares for $231 million through the end of fiscal Q2 2026, with $1.23 billion remaining under the authorization. This provides a tool to support earnings-per-share growth if cash generation continues and operating or investment needs do not deteriorate.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average target of $378.79 and a wide range of $315 to $480; the average is approximately 19% below the 52-week range high of $469, while the highest target is slightly above that high. The 52-week range extends from $282 to $469, and the $165 breadth of analyst targets indicates uncertainty about whether order growth can offset weakness in average order value and comparable sales. The data does not include a usable earnings multiple, so the targets should be viewed in light of slowing comparable sales and pressure on franchisee profitability, not as independent evidence of undervaluation.

BuyAnalyst target: $378.79(+21.6%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What is driving Domino's Pizza's growth in fiscal 2026?

The most important driver is order growth, which management described as meaningful in the overall business and in delivery and carryout during fiscal Q2 2026. These orders support franchise royalties, the supply chain, and the Flywheel loyalty program, whose membership at the end of fiscal 2025 was 20% higher than before the launch of the new version. Uber and DoorDash also provide incremental customers, and management estimates that 50% of aggregator-platform orders are incremental to the existing business.

Why were U.S. comparable-store sales weak despite higher order volumes?

U.S. comparable-store sales grew only 0.1% in fiscal Q2 2026 because lower average order value offset strong order growth. Premium Series and Slice Sauce did not deliver the expected mix when results were compared with the higher-priced Stuffed Crust launch in the prior period, while pricing increased only 0.2%. The divergence between channels was also evident, as carryout increased 1.1% and delivery declined 0.7%.

What role do Uber and DoorDash play in DPZ's strategy?

Domino's said on the July 20, 2026 call that it believes it has become the largest pizza company on both Uber and DoorDash, with room remaining to reach its fair share of the channel. Management estimates that 50% of aggregator-platform orders are incremental and uses higher pricing to keep franchisee profitability approximately neutral. The orchestration agent also coordinates the preparation timing of orders received from Domino's website and aggregator platforms to deliver the product hot and reduce waiting times.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Order growth did not translate into strong sales growth during fiscal Q2 2026; Premium Series and Slice Sauce failed to deliver the planned mix, and U.S. comparable-store sales were limited to 0.1% while delivery declined 0.7%. Management said weak average order value temporarily hurt franchisee profitability, making successful marketing and pricing in the second half necessary to restore balance.
  • −International comparable-store sales declined 0.1% in fiscal Q2 2026, with pressure from Domino's Pizza Enterprises and economic and geopolitical conditions. Management explained that reducing low-margin transactions at Domino's Pizza Enterprises lowered order volumes to a degree that the increase in average order value could not offset.
  • −Domino's faces intense competition in pizza and the quick-service restaurant sector, and management expects it to persist throughout fiscal 2026. Pizza category growth in the first half also came from dine-in consumption, a channel in which Domino's does not compete directly and from which independent restaurants benefited more than others.
  • −The company lowered its fiscal 2026 net U.S. store opening outlook from more than 175 to approximately 175 because of economic pressures, the difficult start to the year, and the impact on franchisee profitability. This revision indicates that order growth alone was not sufficient to prevent near-term weakness in the development pipeline.
  • −Analyst valuations range from $315 to $480, a $165 spread that reveals material disagreement about the stock's value. The average target of $378.79 is also approximately 19% below the 52-week range high of $469, limiting reliance on previous highs as an automatic reference for value.
  • −Net insider selling during the three months ending with the latest transaction on July 22, 2026 was approximately $2.6 million across three sales and no purchases. This is a weak signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged unless the context indicates otherwise, but it provides no additional support for the positive case.
What is Domino's outlook for the rest of fiscal 2026?

The company expects low-single-digit comparable-store sales growth in the U.S. and international markets during fiscal 2026. It also expects mid-single-digit global retail sales growth and mid- to high-single-digit operating income growth after excluding foreign currency, refranchising gains, and the gain on the sale of the corporate aircraft. For unit growth, it expects approximately 175 net new U.S. stores and approximately 800 net new international stores.

What are the details of the announced leadership transition at Domino's?

On the July 20, 2026 call, the company said the board unanimously elected Joe Jordan to be the next chief executive officer after 15 years at Domino's, where he served as chief operating officer. Joe Jordan said he would assume the chief executive officer role in October 2026 and that his focus until then would be working with Russell Weiner and the leadership team to ensure a smooth transition. The call also explicitly stated that Russell Weiner would transition to the Executive Chairman role in 2027.

How do DPZ's financial strength and capital returns look?

Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue was approximately $1.2 billion, gross profit was $478.2 million, net income was $135.8 million, and earnings per share were $4.07. On a 2026 trailing-12-month basis, the statements show revenue of approximately $5.0 billion and net income of between $591.9 million and $596.5 million, depending on the two available snapshots. Through the end of fiscal Q2 2026, the company repurchased approximately 632 thousand shares for $231 million, with $1.23 billion remaining under the authorization.