EL7.AI
Strategy BuilderCOT DataAdvanced NewsResearchNewEarnings CalendarEconomic Calendar
We use cookiesPrivacy Policy
EL7.AIEL7.AI

AI Financial Intelligence
Professional analysis of central bank decisions

© 2026 EL7.AI. All rights reserved.

Markets

  • News
  • Forex
  • Stocks
  • Crypto
  • Gold
  • Commodities
  • Indices
  • ETFs

Analysis

  • Fed
  • ECB
  • BLS
  • COT
  • Economic Calendar

Learn

  • Service Guide
  • Oil

Company

  • About
  • Contact
  • Data Methodology
  • AI Disclosure
  • Pricing
  • Enterprise
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Security
  • WhatsApp
Status data is currently unavailable

The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Home
Stocks
Dow Inc
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall26
Weak — below market medianValue TrapF 3/9Better than 26% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
75
—17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
18
-1.2%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
20
2.4%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
37
7.5x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
33
7.23%▲2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
44
27.5%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
71
13▲3Top tier
DOW

DOW Dow Inc.

Dow Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
29.03
▼ ⁦-2.06%⁩ (-0.61)
Market Cap$21.4B
Beta0.42
52w Low52w High
20.6542.74
Last Week
⁦-7.19%⁩
Last Month
⁦-7.13%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-15.22%⁩
Last Year
⁦+20.26%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$29
Analyst target · 9 analysts
$35
⁦+21%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$28–$45⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$23
⁦-21%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦4⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$23–$35⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

Compare in the screener
Premium content

Get Your Premium Account Now

  • Stock Deep Analysis
  • The Advanced News Platform
Recommended
Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 9 analysts setting price target
$35.67
⁦+22.9%⁩
Current Price $29.03·Median $35.00
Low
$28.00
High
$45.00
Current price
$29.03
Average target
$35.67
Street summary

Slight Decline in Consensus with a Recent Rating Downgrade

The average price target fell from 36 to 35.67 over the last 7 days, and from 36.17 to 35.67 over the last 30 days, representing declines of 0.92% and 1.38%, respectively. In contrast, the number of analysts increased from 7 to 9, broadening the consensus base, while the range between 28 and 45 reveals clear divergence in estimates; the current price of 29.03 is close to the lower end of the range and below the consensus and the median of 35.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-1.4%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.28
Hold
Analyst coverage
⁦18 (+2)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
33%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
59%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time18 analysts rating
1
5
11
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.15 → 3.28
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-11
    KeyBanc
    OverweightSector Weight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-24
    UBS
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-07-16
    Goldman Sachs
    Neutral
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    —
    —
  • Forward P/E
    13.27x
    3.70x29.59x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    17.21x
    2.62x20.92x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    7.8%
    -21.3%8.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -1.2%
    -21.2%90.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -29.3%
    -249.5%198.4%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    9.9%
    7.6%58.9%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    2.4%
    -52.6%20.2%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    7.45x
    0.22x3.72x
    Financial risk
  • Dividend Yield
    7.2%
    0.2%5.5%
    High
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-23 data

Company Overview

Dow Inc. operates through three interconnected operating segments. The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment sells polyethylene and packaging products and also includes hydrocarbons and energy businesses; the Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment serves the polyurethane, construction chemicals, and industrial solutions markets; while the Performance Materials & Coatings segment focuses on silicones, coatings, acrylic materials, and consumer, electronics, and home care applications. Revenue depends on chemical product prices, sales volumes, and integration margins between feedstocks and finished products, in addition to higher-value specialty products.

In fiscal Q2 2026, net sales reached $12.1 billion, up 20% year over year, and operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $2.3 billion, equivalent to a margin of approximately 19%. The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment generated sales of $6.4 billion, or about 53% of company sales, representing growth of 27%, and its operating profit was approximately $1.3 billion. Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure sales also rose 14%, with operating profit reaching $246 million, while Performance Materials & Coatings sales increased 11%, but its operating profit declined to $133 million due to higher costs, planned maintenance, and the closure of the Barry unit.

The latest available EDGAR filings present a weaker picture than the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings call results; in fiscal Q1 2026, Dow recorded revenue of $9.8 billion, a net loss of $533 million, and a loss per share of $0.74. Gross profit was $640 million, equivalent to a gross margin of approximately 6.5%, while the net loss margin was about 5.4%. For the twelve-month period ended in 2026, revenue was $39.3 billion and the net loss was $2.7 billion, explaining the lack of a meaningful price-to-earnings ratio.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment drove the improvement in fiscal Q2 2026; its sales rose 27% to $6.4 billion after polyethylene prices increased the domestic price by more than 40%, despite lower volumes in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, Asia, and the Pacific.
  • Dow raised its fiscal 2026 target for benefits from self-help actions to more than $1.3 billion, an increase of $200 million from the previous target. The Transform to Outperform program is expected to deliver approximately $700 million during fiscal 2026, after its benefits reached $190 million in the first half against a commitment of $100 million, with a total opportunity of $2 billion targeted by fiscal 2028.
  • The company closed the higher-cost siloxane unit in Barry, which represents approximately 25% of European siloxane industry capacity, and expects it to increase operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization by $60 million during the second half of fiscal 2026. Subsequent investments in specialty silicones target electric vehicle, electronics, and data center applications, where management cited double-digit growth in some of these markets and expected returns of 20% or more on volumes sold.
  • Data center-related demand supports the industrial solutions and silicones businesses through advanced cooling fluids, thermal management, decarbonization technologies, and acoustic materials. Dow also launched the Dow Coolant Care Network in fiscal Q1 2026 and advanced long-term agreements with P&G and Univar to secure demand for low-carbon products in personal care, healthcare, food, pharmaceuticals, and industrial applications.
  • Management targets operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of approximately $1.7 billion in fiscal Q3 2026, with $130 million of sequential support from self-help actions. This estimate incorporates a decline of $0.10 per pound in global integrated polyethylene margins and assumes no additional price movements following the June 2026 settlement.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Fiscal Q2 2026 results demonstrated a tangible capacity for an operational recovery, with sales growing 20% to $12.1 billion and operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reaching $2.3 billion, supported by pricing, margin improvement, and cost-reduction actions.
  • +Self-help programs provide a defined path to higher earnings; the $1 billion savings program has been largely completed, approximately 55% of the targeted 4,500 role reductions have been implemented, and management expects these reductions to add more than $200 million during the second half of fiscal 2026.
  • +The concentration of more than 60% of Dow's assets in regions with a feedstock cost advantage provides margin support, particularly given expectations that U.S. natural gas and ethane prices will remain low. The company also restarted the Terneuzen 3 unit, which it described as its lowest-cost and most flexible European unit, enhancing its ability to benefit from naphtha and propane price differentials.
  • +Available liquidity of approximately $14 billion, the absence of significant debt maturities until 2029, and the extension of the revolving credit facility through 2031 provide financial flexibility to support operations and projects. Management intends to direct excess cash toward deleveraging after repaying approximately $80 million of debt during fiscal Q2 2026.

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $36.17, compared with a high target of $45 and a low target of $28, while the average target stands approximately 15% below the top of the 52-week range of $42.74. Consensus remains neutral, and no positive price-to-earnings ratio is available because of the loss per share of approximately $3.70 during the twelve-month period ended in 2026; therefore, the valuation depends more on the realization of cost savings and margin recovery than on stable accounting earnings. The wide 52-week range between $20.65 and $42.74, along with the divergence in analyst targets, confirms that the market is balancing the operational recovery against cyclical risks and recent losses.

HoldAnalyst target: $36.17(+24.6%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove the improvement in DOW's fiscal Q2 2026 results?

Net sales rose 20% to $12.1 billion, and operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $2.3 billion. The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment was the largest driver, with sales increasing 27% to $6.4 billion after the domestic polyethylene price rose by more than 40%. Results also benefited from improved integrated margins and self-help actions that delivered more than $300 million of benefits during the quarter. Improvement in the Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment partially offset weaker performance in Performance Materials & Coatings.

What is Dow's outlook for fiscal Q3 2026?

Management expects operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of approximately $1.7 billion, compared with $2.3 billion in fiscal Q2 2026. The estimate assumes a decline of $0.10 per pound in global integrated polyethylene margins, including the impact of the June 2026 reduction of $0.15 per pound in North America. The company also expects seasonal pressures in construction and coatings, along with planned maintenance. In contrast, self-help actions are expected to add $130 million sequentially.

How important is the Transform to Outperform program to DOW shareholders?
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Accounting profitability remains weak according to EDGAR filings; Dow lost approximately $533 million in fiscal Q1 2026, and the loss for the twelve-month period ended in 2026 was approximately $2.7 billion, with a loss per share of about $3.70. Fiscal 2025 also recorded a net loss of $2.6 billion, so there is no positive price-to-earnings ratio on which to rely.
  • −More than half of fiscal Q2 2026 sales depend on Packaging & Specialty Plastics, which generated $6.4 billion out of $12.1 billion, making results sensitive to polyethylene prices and margins. Management expects operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization to decline from $2.3 billion in fiscal Q2 to approximately $1.7 billion in fiscal Q3 2026, partly due to the settlement of a polyethylene price reduction in North America and compression in integrated margins.
  • −Demand remains uneven across markets; construction and housing are weak, consumer demand in Asia and the Pacific is soft, and the company expects a seasonal decline in construction and coatings during fiscal Q3 2026. Management also reported that the improvement in MDI and PO margins in Q2 benefited from supply disruptions among competitors and that these margins may move toward normalization.
  • −Operating profit for the Performance Materials & Coatings segment declined year over year to $133 million despite 11% sales growth, due to higher costs, planned maintenance, and the closure of the Barry unit. Fiscal Q3 2026 also includes a planned maintenance cycle for a PDH unit and maintenance on U.S. Gulf Coast assets, which may limit the benefit to earnings from volume and price growth.
  • −Supply chains remain exposed to geopolitical tensions; traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was below historical levels in July 2026, amid logistical constraints in the Middle East and higher risk premiums on energy and feedstocks. Management warned that the return of the shipping network to normal could be volatile, increasing the difficulty of forecasting prices, volumes, and margins.
  • −Analyst consensus is neutral, with a wide target price range between $28 and $45, revealing significant divergence in estimates of the recovery trajectory. The absence of a positive price-to-earnings ratio and the wide 52-week range between $20.65 and $42.74 are also consistent with continued uncertainty regarding the sustainability of earnings after the recorded losses and volatility in the petrochemical cycle.

Dow expects the program to deliver approximately $700 million of benefits during fiscal 2026, an increase of $200 million from the previous estimate. The program generated $190 million in the first half, compared with an initial commitment of $100 million. The company implemented approximately 55% of the targeted 4,500 role reductions and expects them to provide more than $200 million of earnings support during the second half of fiscal 2026. It also completed the site transformation plan at six of its largest sites, with an expected benefit of $50 million during the same period.

Where does Dow see the highest-value growth opportunities?

The company is focusing on data centers, specialty silicones, home care, pharmaceuticals, energy, and electric mobility. Dow serves data centers through closed-loop cooling solutions, advanced thermal fluids, decarbonization technologies, and acoustic materials, and launched the Dow Coolant Care Network in fiscal Q1 2026. Management also cited double-digit growth in electric vehicle and electronics applications related to silicones, with expected returns of 20% or more on volumes sold. Long-term agreements with P&G and Univar support demand for low-carbon products across several end markets.

Can Dow's financial position withstand volatility in the petrochemical cycle?

Management reported approximately $14 billion of total available liquidity and no significant debt maturities until 2029. The company also extended its revolving credit facility through 2031 and expects to release more than $500 million of working capital during the second half of fiscal 2026. Dow repaid approximately $80 million of debt in fiscal Q2 2026 and affirmed that deleveraging is the top priority for excess cash. Nevertheless, the net loss of $2.7 billion during the twelve-month period ended in 2026 remains an important factor when assessing the strength of the financial position.