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Dorman Products, Inc.
DORM

DORM Dorman Products, Inc.

Dorman Products, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
126.66
▲ ⁦+0.02%⁩ (+0.03)
Market Cap$3.8B
Beta0.99
52w Low52w High
98.45166.89
Last Week
⁦-0.41%⁩
Last Month
⁦-7.94%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+7.27%⁩
Last Year
⁦-17.28%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall81
Excellent — top fifth of the marketContrarianF 8/9SafeBetter than 81% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
67
17.5x17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
62
3.3%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
71
11.7%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
80
1.2x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
70
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
47
-8.1%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
44
5▲3Around median
Fair Value
Current price$127
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$175
⁦+38%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$140–$180⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$118
⁦-7%⁩
Sees it slightly overvalued
⁦8.8⁩% discount · ⁦4⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$118–$175⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$165.00
⁦+30.3%⁩
Current Price $126.66·Median $175.00
Low
$140.00
High
$180.00
Current price
$126.66
Average target
$165.00
Street summary

Dorman Products (DORM) Price Target Revision Analysis

Bullish tilt

Dorman Products stock has seen a notable positive shift in analyst expectations over the past thirty days, with the average price target rising from $140 to $165, an increase of 17.86%. This adjustment reflects growing optimism, especially with the stock currently trading at $128.54, indicating a potential growth gap exceeding 28% to reach the consensus price target, while the most optimistic estimates reach $180.

As of 2026-09-02
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+17.9%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.13
Buy
Analyst coverage
8
Buy conviction
88%
High
Target dispersion
32%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time8 analysts rating
2
5
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.25 → 4.13
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-05
    Roth MKM
    Buy
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-03-02
    Jefferies
    Buy· $140.00
  • = Reiterate2025-09-18
    BMO Capital
    Outperform· $180.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    17.54x
    4.56x36.49x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    14.13x
    3.79x30.29x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    12.22x
    2.75x22.03x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    5.7%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    3.3%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -1.9%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    42.3%
    12.0%66.5%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    11.7%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.23x
    0.65x5.48x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    4.87
    -2.656.14
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-04 data

Company Overview

Dorman Products operates in the vehicle aftermarket, generating revenue through three segments: Light Duty, Heavy Duty, and Specialty Vehicle. The company focuses on developing alternatives to original equipment parts and improved repair solutions, such as the aluminum oil pan for Ford F-150 vehicles, the hydrocarbon injection nozzle for heavy-duty vehicles, and Super ATV products for specialty vehicles. Most of its portfolio is based on non-discretionary repairs, with a greater emphasis on serving customers who rely on technicians to perform repairs rather than doing the repairs themselves.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, Dorman recorded record revenue of $544.6 million, up approximately 1% year over year, and gross profit of $251.2 million, equivalent to a calculated gross margin of approximately 46.1%. Reported net income was $87.8 million and earnings per share were $2.93, while adjusted earnings per share were $3.08, up 50% year over year. However, the recovery of IEEPA tariff costs added approximately $1.18 to adjusted earnings per share, resulting in comparable adjusted earnings per share of $1.90 after excluding it.

The Light Duty segment accounted for approximately $424 million, or nearly 78% of Q2 fiscal 2026 sales, with sales flat year over year and volume declining. The Heavy Duty segment generated $66 million, growing approximately 7%, while the Specialty Vehicle segment recorded $54 million, down 1%. Consolidated adjusted operating margin was 22.3%, but declined to 14.2% after excluding the recovery benefit, approximately 210 basis points lower year over year due to the impact of lower Light Duty volume.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The company raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance to a range of $8.50–$8.80 from $8.10–$8.50, but the increase includes a one-time recovery benefit of approximately $0.30; the comparable range after excluding it is $8.20–$8.50, with a midpoint of $8.35 and growth of 10% over the comparable fiscal 2025 base.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Management expects mid-single-digit sales growth in the second half of fiscal 2026, driven primarily by volume from new business wins and product launches, with the Heavy Duty segment slightly above this rate and the Specialty Vehicle segment slightly below it.
  • Specific innovations support growth opportunities, including a patented aluminum oil pan for a broad range of Ford F-150 vehicles, a hydrocarbon injection nozzle, fluid reservoirs, and new LED lights for heavy-duty vehicles, and a vented windshield from Super ATV for the CFMoto Z10 platform.
  • The Heavy Duty segment grew approximately 7% to $66 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, and its operating margin improved 340 basis points to 4.2%. Even after excluding the recovery benefit, comparable margin increased 150 basis points to 2.3% due to operating leverage from sales.
  • Dorman generated operating cash flow of $153 million and free cash flow of $144 million in Q2 fiscal 2026; even excluding the tariff recovery, comparable free cash flow was approximately $62 million. It ended the quarter with net debt of approximately $318 million, liquidity of $931 million, and a net leverage ratio of 0.69 times adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The Light Duty portfolio benefits from a long-term demand foundation supported by the increase in the average age of light-duty vehicles to 12.9 years and higher miles driven, while management describes the vast majority of products as non-discretionary repair parts.
    • +New business wins and product launches provide a foundation for volume growth in the second half of fiscal 2026 and throughout 2027, while point-of-sale activity at major customers remains within the mid-single-digit growth range in aggregate value.
    • +Liquidity of $931 million and a low net leverage ratio of 0.69 times give the company flexibility to fund investment, growth, potential acquisitions, and share repurchases; it repurchased approximately 398 thousand shares for $47 million in Q2 fiscal 2026.
    • +The breadth of its products demonstrates Dorman's ability to address specific aftermarket problems, from replacing the plastic oil pan prone to warping and leaking in the Ford F-150 with an aluminum solution, to expanding above the chassis in heavy-duty vehicles and developing repair parts for older specialty vehicles.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Dorman lowered its fiscal 2026 net sales growth guidance to 3%–5% from 7%–9% due to first-half performance, lower volumes in certain areas, and price reductions associated with the stabilization of the tariff environment; this reduces revenue growth expectations despite the improvement in reported earnings guidance.
    • −The quality of Q2 fiscal 2026 results depends substantially on the one-time recovery of IEEPA tariffs: comparable gross margin declined from the reported 46.1% to 38% after excluding the benefit, and comparable adjusted operating margin fell to 14.2% versus the reported 22.3%.
    • −The Light Duty segment, which represented nearly 78% of Q2 fiscal 2026 sales, experienced declining volume and flat sales of $424 million, while discretionary do-it-yourself categories also faced modest demand pressure.
    • −The heavy-duty vehicle market continues to face a freight recession, high fuel costs, and inflation, and management does not expect meaningful growth in truck miles driven or freight tonnage during 2026. The segment's comparable operating margin also remained low at 2.3% despite improving year over year.
    • −Specialty Vehicle sales declined 1% to $54 million in Q2 fiscal 2026 due to modest demand weakness related to high fuel prices and inflationary pressures, while the shift in demand toward highly equipped vehicles reduces accessory attachment rates at dealers.
    • −Tariffs remain a factor affecting pricing and margins despite the lower IEEPA burden; the company continues to incur Section 232 tariffs and Section 301 tariffs on a portion of its products, expects price reductions to continue during the second half of fiscal 2026, and expects gross margin to return to a more normalized level of approximately 40% in Q4 fiscal 2026.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $140 and identical high and low targets of $140; the absence of any variation among the targets means the available estimate range does not provide a broad test of differences in opinion. The target is approximately 16% below the 52-week range high of $166.89 and approximately 42% above its low of $98.45, while the available data does not include a valid price-to-earnings ratio that can be used to value the stock; therefore, the positive consensus should be weighed against the reduction in sales growth guidance and the quarter's reliance on a one-time tariff recovery.

    BuyAnalyst target: $140(+10.5%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove Dorman's earnings in Q2 fiscal 2026?

    Revenue was $544.6 million and net income was $87.8 million, while reported earnings per share reached $2.93. Adjusted earnings per share reached a record $3.08, up 50% year over year. However, the recovery of IEEPA tariff costs added approximately $1.18, resulting in comparable adjusted earnings per share of $1.90 after excluding it.

    Why did Dorman lower its fiscal 2026 sales growth outlook?

    The company lowered its net sales growth range to 3%–5% from 7%–9%. Management attributed this to first-half fiscal 2026 performance, including declines in certain volumes, and to price reductions that began after tariff costs decreased. Nevertheless, it expects mid-single-digit growth in the second half of fiscal 2026, driven largely by new business wins and product launches.

    How important is the Light Duty segment to Dorman's business?

    The segment generated $424 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, representing nearly 78% of the company's sales, with revenue flat year over year and volume declining. Its operating margin was 24.7% after expanding 620 basis points, but the result benefited from the tariff recovery, while the first-half margin was 19.4%. The demand outlook is supported by an average light-duty vehicle age of 12.9 years, higher miles driven, and the portfolio's focus on non-discretionary repairs.

    What new products could support Dorman's growth?

    Dorman launched an aluminum oil pan for a broad range of Ford F-150 vehicles as an alternative to the plastic part prone to warping and leaking, and added a magnetic drain plug. In heavy-duty vehicles, it introduced a hydrocarbon injection nozzle, new power steering fluid and windshield washer fluid reservoirs, and two LED light assemblies. Super ATV also introduced a vented windshield for the CFMoto Z10 platform, alongside the expansion of repair parts aimed at older specialty vehicles.

    Does Dorman have a strong balance sheet for share repurchases or acquisitions?

    The company ended Q2 fiscal 2026 with net debt of approximately $318 million and liquidity of $931 million. Its net leverage ratio was 0.69 times adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, after increasing its revolving credit facility to $800 million and extending its maturity to 2031. It also issued $450 million of unsecured notes due in 2034 and repurchased approximately 398 thousand shares for $47 million, with $363 million remaining under the repurchase authorization extending through 2027.

    What are the main operational risks facing Dorman during fiscal 2026?

    The first risk is volume weakness within the Light Duty segment and demand pressure on discretionary do-it-yourself categories, alongside a 1% decline in Specialty Vehicle sales in Q2 fiscal 2026. In heavy-duty vehicles, management does not expect meaningful growth in miles driven or freight tonnage during 2026 due to the ongoing freight recession, high fuel prices, and inflation. The decline in comparable gross margin to 38% and comparable adjusted operating margin to 14.2% also shows that underlying earnings were significantly weaker than the reported figures affected by the tariff recovery.