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Home
Stocks
D.R. Horton, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall73
Strong — clearly above market medianContrarianF 4/9SafeBetter than 73% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
82
13.1x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
15
-3.5%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
55
9.2%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
84
1.2x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
74
1.26%▼2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
30
-20.3%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
83
15▲3Top tier
DHI

DHI D.R. Horton, Inc.

D.R. Horton, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
137.89
▲ ⁦+1.71%⁩ (+2.32)
Market Cap$38.6B
Beta1.38
52w Low52w High
131.75181.47
Last Week
⁦-3.07%⁩
Last Month
⁦-8.55%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-6.01%⁩
Last Year
⁦-22.48%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$138
Analyst target · 10 analysts
$145
⁦+5%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$140–$190⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$115
⁦-16%⁩
Sees it slightly overvalued
⁦10.5⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$115–$145⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 10 analysts setting price target
$160.00
⁦+16.0%⁩
Current Price $137.89·Median $145.00
Low
$140.00
High
$190.00
Current price
$137.89
Average target
$160.00
Street summary

Consensus Stability Despite a Broader Analyst Base

The average price target remained unchanged at 163.75 over 1, 7, and 30 days, despite the number of analysts increasing from 5 to 10. The current range is between 140 and 190, with a median of 162.5, reflecting clear variation in valuations compared with the current price of 138.93; the lower bound is close to the price, while the consensus is concentrated above it.

As of 2026-09-09
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-2.3%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.11
Hold
Analyst coverage
⁦18 (+5)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
22%
Target dispersion
36%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time18 analysts rating
4
13
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.24 → 3.11
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-22
    RBC Capital
    Mixed
  • = Reiterate2026-07-22
    Citigroup
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-07-21
    Goldman Sachs
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    13.09x
    4.56x36.49x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    11.74x
    3.79x30.29x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    10.61x
    2.75x22.03x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    8.3%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -3.5%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -15.8%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    22.6%
    12.0%66.5%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    9.2%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.22x
    0.65x5.48x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    1.3%
    0.1%5.9%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    16.6%
    8.9%99.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    5.47
    -2.656.14
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-21 data

Company Overview

D.R. Horton is a homebuilding and home sales company whose core business focuses on providing affordable housing across a broad geographic footprint in the United States. It manages each residential community by balancing sales pace, pricing, incentives, and inventory, while also benefiting from Forestar, its majority-owned residential land development company, as well as mortgage financing and rental housing operations. In fiscal Q3 2026, 65% of the mortgage company's closings were to first-time buyers, and the average closing price of a home was $362 thousand, down 2% year over year and approximately $155 thousand below the average price of new homes in the United States, according to management.

D.R. Horton reported consolidated revenue of $9.2 billion, gross profit of $2.1 billion, net income of $904.9 million, and diluted earnings per share of $3.20 in fiscal Q3 2026. This equates to a consolidated gross margin of approximately 22.8% and a net income margin of approximately 9.8%, while the pretax profit margin was 13.3% on pretax income of $1.2 billion. Year over year, earnings per share declined from $3.36, despite an increase in homes closed to 23,983 from 23,160.

Home sales were the largest driver, generating revenue of $8.7 billion and a home sales gross margin of 20.7%. Rental operations generated revenue of $266 million and pretax income of $31 million from the sale of 601 single-family rental homes and 339 multifamily rental units, while financial services generated revenue of $221 million and pretax income of $70 million at a margin of 31.9%. Forestar reported revenue of $407 million from the sale of 3,659 lots and pretax income of $49 million.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The company closed 23,983 homes in fiscal Q3 2026, at the high end of its guidance range, and home sales revenue reached $8.7 billion compared with $8.6 billion in the corresponding period, despite a 2% decline in the average closing price to $362 thousand.
  • The 20.7% home sales margin exceeded the high end of management's guidance, supported by a 5% year-over-year and 2% sequential decline in home material and construction costs, particularly savings in framing work, along with a slight decrease in incentives compared with the previous quarter.
  • Net sales orders totaled $8.4 billion on 23,084 homes, with both remaining flat year over year, but the cancellation rate rose to 20% from 17% year over year and 16% sequentially; management attributed this primarily to buyers' difficulty qualifying and weak economic confidence.
  • Management expects fiscal Q4 2026 revenue of between $8.8 billion and $9.3 billion, closings of 22,500 to 23,000 homes, a home sales gross margin of between 20.5% and 21%, and a consolidated pretax profit margin of between 12.3% and 12.8%.
  • For fiscal 2026, the company is targeting consolidated revenue of approximately $32.5 billion to $33 billion and closings of 83,800 to 84,300 homes, with operating cash flow of at least $3 billion, share repurchases of approximately $2.5 billion, and dividends of approximately $500 million.
  • The faster construction cycle supported capital efficiency; the median time from home start to closing improved by approximately three weeks year over year, and home inventory declined 1% both year over year and sequentially to 38 thousand homes, while management is targeting a slower pace of construction starts in fiscal Q4 2026 in response to slowing demand.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +D.R. Horton's focus on affordability gives the company a clear position in serving first-time buyers; this segment represented 65% of the mortgage company's closings in fiscal Q3 2026, and the average closing price was approximately 30% below the average price of new homes in the United States, according to management.
  • +Cost efficiency supports profitability in a difficult demand environment, as the home sales margin reached 20.7% after home material and construction costs declined 5% year over year, and management expects the margin to remain between 20.5% and 21% in fiscal Q4 2026.
  • +The land model provides capital flexibility, as the company owned only 22% of approximately 570 thousand lots and contractually controlled 78%, while 67% of homes closed were built on land developed by Forestar or other parties. The number of owned lots declined 13% year over year, while the company retained control of approximately 6.7 years of land supply.
  • +Consolidated liquidity totaled $6.1 billion on June 30, 2026, including $2.1 billion in cash and $4 billion of available credit facilities, compared with consolidated leverage of 23%. During the twelve months ended June 30, 2026, the company generated $3.4 billion in operating cash flow and returned the entire amount to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

The analyst consensus on DHI is neutral, with an average target of $163.75 and a wide range between $140 and $190. The average target is approximately 11% below the 52-week range high of $184.55, while the highest target exceeds that high by only approximately 3%; this distribution reflects a balance between strong cash flow and cost efficiency on one hand, and weak demand and reduced delivery expectations on the other.

HoldAnalyst target: $163.75(+18.8%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

How did D.R. Horton perform in fiscal Q3 2026?

The company reported revenue of $9.2 billion, net income of $904.9 million, and diluted earnings per share of $3.20. Gross profit according to EDGAR data was approximately $2.1 billion, while the consolidated pretax profit margin reached 13.3%. The company closed 23,983 homes and generated $8.7 billion in home sales revenue, with a home sales gross margin of 20.7%. However, earnings per share declined from $3.36 in the corresponding period of the previous year.

Why did D.R. Horton lower its fiscal 2026 outlook?

Management said on the July 21, 2026 call that the sales pace was below its internal expectations and that demand weakened during the quarter. Accordingly, it now expects consolidated revenue of between $32.5 billion and $33 billion and closings of 83,800 to 84,300 homes in fiscal 2026. The company preserved more margin rather than driving sales volume and expects fewer construction starts in fiscal Q4 2026 compared with 23,900 starts in fiscal Q3. Nevertheless, it maintained its operating cash flow outlook at at least $3 billion.

How important are first-time buyers to D.R. Horton's business?

First-time buyers represented 65% of the mortgage company's closings in fiscal Q3 2026. The average closing price of a home was $362 thousand, approximately $155 thousand or 30% below the average price of a new home in the United States, according to management. Interest-rate buydown programs helped mortgage buyers in the backlog achieve an average interest rate of 4.9% on June 30, 2026, compared with an approximate market rate of 6.5%. However, demand's reliance on this segment increases sales sensitivity to financing qualification requirements and consumer confidence.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −Sales during fiscal Q3 2026 were weaker than management's internal expectations, prompting it to lower its full-year delivery outlook; it now expects to close 83,800 to 84,300 homes and generate revenue of between $32.5 billion and $33 billion. It also decided to preserve margin rather than drive sales volume and expects construction starts in fiscal Q4 to be below the 23,900 starts recorded in fiscal Q3.
  • −Affordability and consumer confidence remain direct pressures on demand, particularly because 65% of the mortgage company's closings involve first-time buyers. The order cancellation rate rose to 20% from 17% year over year and 16% sequentially, while management said that difficulty qualifying for financing is the largest cause of cancellations.
  • −The results show slowing operating momentum, as the value of net orders and the number of homes sold were flat year over year, while earnings per share declined to $3.20 from $3.36. Total revenue has also not grown for several years, according to management, despite the company's expansion into approximately 30 markets over five years.
  • −Homebuilding selling, general, and administrative expenses increased 8% year over year and rose to 8.3% of revenue from 7.8%, because the number of active communities grew 9% without corresponding growth in revenue or absorption rates. Management acknowledges that new markets typically pressure gross margin and operating leverage until they mature.
  • −Margins may face pressure from costs and incentives, as management expects incentives to remain historically elevated and land cost inflation to remain near 5% in fiscal Q4 2026. It also noted higher fuel costs and the possibility that pressure from lumber prices could emerge after a lag that typically extends from two to three quarters, while extracting additional savings from construction costs has become more difficult.
  • −The neutral analyst consensus reflects differing views on valuation, with targets ranging from $140 to $190 and an average of $163.75. The average is approximately 11% below the 52-week range high of $184.55, while the lowest target is close to the range low of $131.75, highlighting repricing risk if demand remains weak or margins contract.
Can D.R. Horton's margin hold up in fiscal Q4 2026?

Management expects a home sales gross margin of between 20.5% and 21% in fiscal Q4 2026, compared with 20.7% in fiscal Q3. The margin benefited from a 5% year-over-year decline in home material and construction costs, with framing work providing the largest source of savings, along with a slight sequential decline in incentives. Conversely, the company expects incentives to remain at historically elevated levels and land cost inflation to remain near 5%. Higher lumber prices may also appear in costs after a lag typically ranging from two to three quarters.

What is D.R. Horton's liquidity, debt, and capital return position?

Consolidated liquidity totaled $6.1 billion on June 30, 2026, split between $2.1 billion in cash and $4 billion of available capacity under credit facilities. Total debt was $7.1 billion, with $600 million of homebuilding senior notes due during the following twelve months, while consolidated leverage was 23%. The company repurchased 4.2 million shares for $616 million in fiscal Q3 2026, reducing shares outstanding by 6% year over year, and paid dividends of $0.45 per share. For fiscal 2026, it is targeting share repurchases of approximately $2.5 billion and dividends of approximately $500 million, subject to cash flow.

How does D.R. Horton manage land and inventory to limit risk?

The land position totaled approximately 570 thousand lots on June 30, 2026, of which 22% were owned and 78% were controlled through purchase contracts. The number of owned lots declined 13% year over year, while the company built 67% of homes closed on lots developed by Forestar or other parties. The company ended the quarter with inventory of 38 thousand homes, including 23,300 unsold homes and 7,600 completed unsold homes, but only 600 homes had remained completed for more than six months. The median time from construction start to closing also improved by approximately three weeks year over year, supporting inventory turnover and capital efficiency.