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Stocks
Dollar General Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall75
Strong — clearly above market medianContrarianF 8/9Grey zoneBetter than 75% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
75
16.2x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
66
4.8%▼7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
66
7.6%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
55
4.0x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
71
1.89%▼2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
42
11.1%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
70
26▲3Top tier
DG

DG Dollar General Corporation

Dollar General Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
124.58
▲ ⁦+1.29%⁩ (+1.59)
Market Cap$27.5B
Beta0.23
52w Low52w High
95.11158.23
Last Week
⁦-5.09%⁩
Last Month
⁦-1.59%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+17.27%⁩
Last Year
⁦+10.47%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$125
Analyst target · 9 analysts
$142
⁦+14%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$110–$170⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$146
⁦+17%⁩
Sees it undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$142–$146⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 9 analysts setting price target
$139.94
⁦+12.3%⁩
Current Price $124.58·Median $142.00
Low
$110.00
High
$170.00
Current price
$124.58
Average target
$139.94
Street summary

Slight Increase in Consensus While Dispersion Remains High

The consensus price target rose from 137.89 to 139.94 over the last 30 days, an increase of 1.49%, while remaining unchanged over the last 7 days and 1 day. The current consensus indicates a calculated upside of approximately 9.4% compared with the current price of 127.87, but the target range between 110 and 170 reflects notable dispersion among analysts, with their number unchanged at 9.

As of 2026-09-08
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+1.5%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.42
Hold
Analyst coverage
31
Buy conviction
35%
Rating activity · 30d
1↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
48%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time31 analysts rating
3
8
19
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.50 → 3.42
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-08
    Barclays
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-08-31
    Guggenheim
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-28
    Bernstein
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    16.18x
    4.61x36.85x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    16.04x
    3.86x30.86x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    11.82x
    2.86x22.90x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    7.3%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    4.8%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    42.6%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    31.2%
    9.2%67.5%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    7.6%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    4.02x
    0.61x4.86x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    1.9%
    0.9%8.3%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    30.5%
    15.9%176.6%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    2.61
    -4.825.90
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-27 data

Company Overview

Dollar General operates a network of more than 21 thousand stores, with a footprint located within five miles of approximately 75% of the U.S. population, with a clear focus on rural communities and customers seeking value and convenience. The company generates revenue primarily from selling consumable and non-consumable goods at everyday low prices, offering more than 2,000 items priced at one dollar or less, including more than 600 recurring items within Value Valley. The stores are supported by myDG Delivery and partnerships with DoorDash and Uber Eats, while DG Media Network serves as an additional source of growth and profitability from advertising spending across digital and in-store channels.

In Q2 of fiscal year 2027, net sales rose 5.2% to $11.3 billion, and same-store sales increased 3.5%, driven by 2% growth in customer traffic and a 1.5% increase in the average basket. Gross profit according to EDGAR data was approximately $3.7 billion, and the company recorded a gross margin of 32.6%, up 127 basis points, while operating profit rose 29.2% to $769 million and its margin expanded 126 basis points to 6.8%. Net income reached $550.3 million and diluted earnings per share were $2.48, up 33%, while all four categories delivered positive same-store sales growth for the sixth consecutive quarter, led by non-consumables with 4.5% growth.

For the twelve months ended in 2026, Dollar General recorded revenue of $43.6 billion, gross profit of $13.6 billion, net income of $1.7 billion, and earnings per share of approximately $7.69, compared with revenue of $42.7 billion and net income of $1.5 billion in fiscal year 2025. The company also generated $1.5 billion in operating cash flow during the first half and ended the quarter with inventory of $6.6 billion, approximately flat year over year and down 2.7% based on average inventory per store.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Management raised its fiscal year 2026 guidance to net sales growth of between 4% and 4.3%, same-store sales growth of between 2.5% and 2.9%, and earnings per share of between $7.80 and $8.00; this reflects the strength of the first half and an improved outlook for the remainder of the year, including a benefit of approximately $0.25 per share from the tariff refund.
  • One-dollar offerings have become a tangible sales driver; Value Valley same-store sales growth exceeded 16% in Q2 of fiscal year 2027, and its item count increased to more than 600. Stores that added off-shelf offerings across more than 9,000 locations also generated incremental growth above the rest of the network, and the company plans to increase the number of seasonal one-dollar items by 40% in the second half.
  • Delivery services added approximately 40 basis points to same-store sales growth in the quarter, and management estimates that approximately 80% of delivery sales are incremental rather than merely shifted from stores. Digitally engaged and delivery customers are also more than twice as productive as customers who are not digitally engaged, and more than one million customers who began their relationship through delivery have transitioned to shopping inside Dollar General stores.
  • Store remodels provide a measurable growth lever; through the end of the quarter, the company completed 1,324 Project Renovate projects and 1,422 Project Elevate projects, targeting 2,000 and 2,250 projects, respectively, during the year. Management is targeting an annual increase of approximately 6% in same-store sales at Renovate locations and approximately 3% at Elevate locations.
  • The company plans to repurchase up to $700 million of shares during the second half, beginning in the third quarter, funded with available cash. The program resumed earlier than previously assumed under its long-term financial framework after operating cash flow reached $1.5 billion during the first half.
  • The company continues to expand its network; it opened 125 new stores in the United States during the quarter as part of a plan to open 450 stores in 2026, and added one Mi Súper Dollar General store, bringing the total number of stores in Mexico to 22, as part of a plan for approximately ten new stores there in 2026.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The bullish case is based on broad-based growth: net sales rose 5.2% and same-store sales increased 3.5%, customer traffic grew for the fifth consecutive quarter, and all four categories delivered positive growth for the sixth consecutive quarter.
  • +Profitability improved faster than sales, as operating profit rose 29.2% and earnings per share increased 33% in Q2 of fiscal year 2027, with continued improvements in inventory shrink, damages, and supply-chain efficiency even after excluding the benefit from the tariff refund.
  • +Dollar General has a mix of scalable growth drivers, including Value Valley, delivery with estimated incrementality of approximately 80%, DG Media Network, whose announced annual size reached $170 million at the end of the previous year, and remodel programs targeting annual sales increases of between 3% and 6%, depending on the program.
  • +Operating cash flow of $1.5 billion during the first half strengthens the company’s flexibility to fund new stores, remodels, dividends, and share repurchases of up to $700 million, while management remains committed to an adjusted leverage target below three times adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and rent.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $139.94, with a “Buy” consensus and a wide target range of $110 to $170; the average is approximately 11.6% below the 52-week range high of $158.23, while the highest target exceeds that high. The 52-week range of $95.11 to $158.23, together with the wide range of analyst targets, indicates that the market is balancing improved sales and margins and share repurchases on one hand against the non-recurrence of most of the tariff refund benefit and fuel and consumer pressures on the other.

BuyAnalyst target: $139.94(+12.3%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove Dollar General’s results in Q2 of fiscal year 2027?

Net sales rose 5.2% to $11.3 billion, and same-store sales grew 3.5%, driven by a 2% increase in customer traffic and a 1.5% increase in the average basket. Gross margin improved 127 basis points to 32.6%, and operating profit rose 29.2% to $769 million. Earnings per share also increased 33% to $2.48, including approximately $0.25 related to the tariff refund after reinvestment.

What is Dollar General’s outlook for fiscal year 2026?

Management expects net sales growth of between 4% and 4.3% and same-store sales growth of between 2.5% and 2.9%. It expects diluted earnings per share of between $7.80 and $8.00, with an effective tax rate of approximately 24.5%. The guidance includes a benefit of approximately $0.25 per share from the tariff refund and share repurchases of up to $700 million in the second half.

Why are one-dollar offerings important to DG’s growth?

Dollar General offers more than 2,000 items priced at one dollar or less, and Value Valley alone includes more than 600 recurring items, compared with approximately 500 previously. Value Valley same-store sales growth exceeded 16% in Q2 of fiscal year 2027, clearly outperforming the network average. The company also expanded off-shelf one-dollar offerings to more than 9,000 stores and intends to increase the number of seasonal items at this price by 40% in the second half.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −The core low-income customer remains under pressure from inflation and volatile fuel prices; management says this customer visits stores more often but purchases less on each visit, making basket and sales growth sensitive to any deterioration in employment or purchasing power.
  • −The company faces pricing and promotional competition from multiple categories of retailers while maintaining everyday prices within a range of 3 to 4 percentage points of major retailers. Maintaining customer traffic and market share may require continued markdowns and promotions, which could limit margin expansion if competition intensifies.
  • −The quarter included a significant non-recurring benefit from the tariff refund of approximately 81 basis points to gross margin, 66 basis points to operating margin, and $0.25 to earnings per share after reinvestment. The company received most of the expected amount during the quarter and does not expect a similarly material impact in the second half, making future earnings comparisons with the strong quarterly results more difficult.
  • −Fuel, transportation, and markdown costs continue to pressure margins; transportation costs were higher than expected, and management expects fuel costs to remain elevated throughout the remainder of fiscal year 2026. The company also expects modest deleverage in selling, general, and administrative expenses due to continued investment in long-term initiatives.
  • −The fiscal year 2026 same-store sales growth guidance range of 2.5% to 2.9% indicates a slower pace than the quarter’s 3.5% growth. Management also explained that the fourth quarter will compare against a period that benefited from winter storms in the previous year, creating a more difficult comparison base even as underlying demand drivers remain intact.
  • −The gap between the lowest analyst target of $110 and the highest of $170 reflects substantial differences in assessments of the sustainability of the earnings and margin recovery. This divergence remains a valuation risk, particularly because part of the quarterly improvement came from the tariff refund, which management does not expect to recur materially in the second half.
How do delivery services and digital channels contribute to Dollar General’s sales?

Delivery services added approximately 40 basis points to same-store sales growth in the quarter, and management estimated their sales incrementality at approximately 80%. The channels include myDG Delivery and partnerships with DoorDash and Uber Eats, and digital and delivery customers are more than twice as productive as customers who are not digitally engaged. The company reported that more than one million customers began with delivery and then became in-store shoppers at Dollar General.

What is the impact of Project Renovate and Project Elevate on store growth?

Project Renovate focuses on full store remodels, adding or replacing coolers, and updating the format, while Project Elevate includes improving assets, assortment, and category adjacencies across up to 80% of the store. Through the end of the quarter, the company completed 1,324 Renovate projects and 1,422 Elevate projects, compared with annual targets of 2,000 and 2,250 projects. Management is targeting an annual increase of approximately 6% in same-store sales at Renovate locations and approximately 3% at Elevate locations.

What are the main risks that could limit continued improvement in DG’s earnings?

The low-income customer is under pressure from inflation and fuel costs, and management observes that this customer visits stores more often but purchases less on each visit. The company also expects fuel costs to remain elevated and modest deleverage in selling, general, and administrative expenses during fiscal year 2026. In addition, the quarter benefited by approximately 81 basis points in gross margin and $0.25 per share from the tariff refund, while management does not expect a similarly material impact in the second half.