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Home
Stocks
Deckers Outdoor Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall95
Excellent — top fifth of the marketContrarianF 6/9SafeBetter than 95% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
86
11.5x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
83
7.9%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
92
34.4%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
90
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
70
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
18
-13.8%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
84
17▲3Top tier
DECK

DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation

Deckers Outdoor Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
81.27
▲ ⁦+1.74%⁩ (+1.39)
Market Cap$10.9B
Beta1.17
52w Low52w High
78.91125.45
Last Week
⁦-2.97%⁩
Last Month
⁦-16.59%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-28.90%⁩
Last Year
⁦-28.52%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$81
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$125
⁦+54%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$70–$145⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$144
⁦+77%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦9.6⁩% discount · ⁦4⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$125–$144⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$117.13
⁦+44.1%⁩
Current Price $81.27·Median $125.00
Low
$70.00
High
$145.00
Current price
$81.27
Average target
$117.13
Street summary

Slight decline with clear divergence among analysts

The consensus price target fell to 117.13 from 120.50 over the last 7 and 30 days, a decline of 3.37 or 2.8%, while the number of analysts remained unchanged at 5 and the consensus did not change over the last day. The current range is between 70 and 145, with a median of 125, reflecting notable dispersion among the estimates.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-2.8%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.62
Buy
Analyst coverage
26
Buy conviction
50%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
92%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time26 analysts rating
5
8
11
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.44 → 3.62
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-11
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-09-08
    BMO Capital
    Underperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-24
    UBS
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    11.53x
    4.56x36.49x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    10.69x
    3.79x30.29x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    7.53x
    2.75x22.03x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    10.1%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    7.9%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    157.3%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    57.8%
    12.0%66.5%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    34.4%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    8.06
    -2.656.14
    Exceptional
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-23 data

Company Overview

Deckers Outdoor Corporation relies on the HOKA and UGG brands to generate its revenue through direct-to-consumer and wholesale sales, with a focus on premium-priced footwear, performance and lifestyle products, and apparel. In Q1 fiscal 2027, HOKA generated revenue of $704 million, or approximately 69% of group revenue, while UGG generated revenue of $278 million, or approximately 27%; together, the two brands represented nearly 96% of revenue. Company-wide direct-to-consumer sales rose 13%, driven by growth of 17% at HOKA and 6% at UGG, while wholesale growth depended partly on the timing of international shipments.

Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue reached approximately $1.02 billion, up 5.7% year over year, exceeding $1 billion in the first quarter for the first time in Deckers' history. Gross profit was $575.2 million, and gross margin increased to 56.4% from 55.8%, supported by channel and product mix, full-price selling, and foreign exchange, despite a 150-basis-point negative impact from tariffs. Net income was $130.0 million and diluted earnings per share were $0.94, compared with $0.93 a year earlier, while selling, general, and administrative expenses rose 13% to $420 million.

Deckers ended fiscal 2026 with revenue of $5.5 billion, gross profit of $3.2 billion, net income of $1 billion, and earnings per share of $7.02. As of June 30, 2026, the company had $1.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents and no outstanding borrowings, while inventory declined 5% to $808 million. This liquidity supports investment in HOKA stores, marketing, and technology, alongside $338 million of share repurchases during Q1 fiscal 2027.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Deckers raised its fiscal 2027 earnings-per-share outlook by $0.05 to a range of $7.35–$7.50 and raised its gross-margin outlook to slightly above 56.5% and its operating-margin outlook to slightly above 21.5%, while maintaining its revenue outlook of $5.86–$5.91 billion.
  • HOKA revenue rose 8% to $704 million in Q1 fiscal 2027, with the direct-to-consumer channel leading growth with a 17% increase. Speedgoat 7, Mach 7, Mafate Speed 2, and Skyward contributed more than half of HOKA's direct-sales growth, while Clifton Pro received reorders approximately two weeks after its launch.
  • UGG revenue rose 5% to $278 million, with direct-to-consumer growth of 6% and wholesale growth of 5%. The Lowmel and Golden families, men's sales, and spring apparel supported the product mix, and the men's business represented 15% of UGG revenue, with management targeting an increase to 20% or more.
  • The full-price selling model had a significant impact on profitability; full-price selling combined with channel and brand mix added approximately 110 basis points to the quarter's margin, while improved product-clearance management added approximately 60 basis points. This coincided with a 5% decline in inventory, supporting product scarcity and protecting pricing for Deckers and its partners.
  • Management expects revenue growth to accelerate in the second half of fiscal 2027, led by HOKA and international wholesale and distributor shipments. Product catalysts include Clifton Pro, Mach Pro, Cielo 70, Clifton L, and Fly Pace, alongside expanded HOKA distribution through retail partners that management describes as higher quality.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Deckers combines revenue growth with high profitability; Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue grew 5.7%, gross margin reached 56.4%, and net income was $130.0 million, despite tariffs and operating investments.
  • +The company has a strong balance sheet that included $1.6 billion in cash and no outstanding borrowings as of June 30, 2026, in addition to $4.7 billion remaining under its share-repurchase authorization. Fiscal 2027 guidance assumes share repurchases equal to approximately 80% of expected free cash flow.
  • +HOKA's growth does not depend on a single model; more than half of the increase in its direct sales came from a group comprising Speedgoat 7, Mach 7, Mafate Speed 2, and Skyward, alongside the initial launch of Clifton Pro and a plan to introduce Mach Pro in spring fiscal 2027.
  • +UGG expanded beyond traditional winter products through Lowmel, GoldenGaze, Tasman, spring apparel, and men's products, and recorded growth in the United States and international markets during Q1 fiscal 2027. Management also confirmed on the July 23, 2026 call that there were no cancellations in the second-half order book.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus on DECK is “Neutral,” with an average price target of $120.5 and a wide range between $85 and $145; the average falls within the 52-week range of $78.91–$125.45 and approximately 4% below its peak. Based on fiscal 2027 earnings-per-share guidance of $7.35–$7.50, the average target implies a forward price-to-earnings multiple of approximately 16.1–16.4 times, but the wide range of targets reflects differing views on the sustainability of HOKA's growth and tariff and margin pressures.

HoldAnalyst target: $120.5(+48.3%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove DECK's results in Q1 fiscal 2027?

Revenue reached $1.02 billion in Q1 fiscal 2027, up 5.7%, and diluted earnings per share were $0.94. HOKA revenue rose 8% to $704 million, while UGG revenue grew 5% to $278 million. Gross margin also increased 60 basis points to 56.4% due to direct-to-consumer sales, improved mix, and full-price selling, despite a 150-basis-point tariff impact.

What is Deckers' outlook for fiscal 2027?

Deckers expects revenue of $5.86–$5.91 billion, reflecting high-single-digit growth compared with the prior fiscal year. It expects low-double-digit growth for HOKA and mid-single-digit growth for UGG, with gross margin slightly above 56.5% and operating margin slightly above 21.5%. The company raised its earnings-per-share guidance to $7.35–$7.50, with growth expected to accelerate in the second half of fiscal 2027.

Does HOKA's growth still depend only on Clifton and Bondi?

Q1 fiscal 2027 results showed a broader product base, as Speedgoat 7, Mach 7, Mafate Speed 2, and Skyward contributed more than half of HOKA's direct-sales growth. The brand launched Clifton Pro with PROGLIDE+ technology, and some wholesale accounts placed reorders within approximately two weeks of the launch. The product plan also includes Mach Pro, Cielo 70, Clifton L, and Fly Pace, with distribution varying by type of retail partner.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Approximately 96% of Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue is concentrated in HOKA and UGG, which contributed approximately $704 million and $278 million, respectively. Therefore, weaker demand or a loss of momentum at either could have a significant impact on group results, particularly because HOKA alone represents nearly 69% of revenue.
  • −Achieving high-single-digit growth in fiscal 2027 requires acceleration during the second half after revenue growth of 5.7% in the first quarter and expected growth of approximately 5% in the second quarter. This plan depends primarily on HOKA and the timing of international wholesale and distributor shipments, increasing execution risk if deferred orders do not convert into revenue at the expected rate.
  • −Margins face operating pressure despite the first-quarter improvement; selling, general, and administrative expenses rose 13% to $420 million, faster than revenue growth of 5.7%. Management expects gross margin to decline in Q2 fiscal 2027 and also explained that the 60-basis-point product-clearance benefit in the first quarter was unique to that quarter.
  • −Deckers raised its assumed tariff rate for fiscal 2027 from 10% to 12.5%, after tariffs reduced first-quarter margin by approximately 150 basis points. The effects of the higher assumption will appear in inventory sold late in the third quarter and more significantly during the fourth quarter, while no potential tariff refunds were included in guidance.
  • −HOKA faces competition from new entrants and established brands regaining their presence, a topic raised explicitly on the July 23, 2026 call. Its ability to maintain low-double-digit growth depends on the continued differentiation of technologies such as PROGLIDE+ and the success of selective distribution for new products against competing alternatives.
  • −The neutral analyst consensus and the range of price targets between $85 and $145 reflect wide differences in assessments of Deckers' trajectory. The average target of $120.5 falls within the 52-week range of $78.91–$125.45 and near its upper end, leaving the valuation sensitive to any failure to achieve second-half acceleration or earnings-per-share guidance.
How is UGG trying to reduce its dependence on cold weather?

In Q1 fiscal 2027, UGG focused on the 365 initiative, which includes everyday and athletic footwear, sandals, apparel, and men's products. Lowmel, Minimal, GoldenGaze, Tasman, and products such as Otzo Clog helped expand the occasions on which the brand is worn, while spring apparel performed strongly in the United States, Europe, and Asia. The men's business represented 15% of UGG revenue, and management is targeting an increase to 20% or more.

What is the impact of tariffs on Deckers' earnings?

Tariffs reduced Q1 fiscal 2027 gross margin by approximately 150 basis points compared with the prior period. Management raised its assumed tariff rate for the remainder of fiscal 2027 from 10% to 12.5%, with an expected impact late in the third quarter and a greater impact during the fourth quarter. The company continues to pursue refunds for tariffs associated with the IEEPA ruling, but it did not include any potential refunds in its guidance.

What is DECK's liquidity and share-repurchase position?

Cash and cash equivalents totaled $1.6 billion as of June 30, 2026, and Deckers had no outstanding borrowings, while inventory declined 5% to $808 million. The company repurchased approximately $338 million of shares during Q1 fiscal 2027 at an average of $103.79 per share. It had $4.7 billion remaining under its repurchase authorization, and annual guidance assumes allocating an amount equal to approximately 80% of expected free cash flow to share repurchases.