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Stocks
Dropbox, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall71
Strong — clearly above market medianSuper StockF 5/8Better than 71% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
65
20.2x▼17.6xAround median
▸
Growth
28
-0.0%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
97
26.0%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
32
4.0x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
15
—2.15%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
88
4.7%▲2.3%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
43
5▲3Around median
DBX

DBX Dropbox, Inc.

Dropbox, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Open
34.04
▼ ⁦-5.47%⁩ (-1.97)
Market Cap$9.2B
Beta0.65
52w Low52w High
21.7038.13
Last Week
⁦-4.27%⁩
Last Month
⁦+0.50%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+28.89%⁩
Last Year
⁦+5.81%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$36
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$28
⁦-24%⁩
See it clearly overvalued
Range ⁦$20–$32⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$51
⁦+40%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$28–$51⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$26.83
⁦-21.2%⁩
Current Price $34.04·Median $27.50
Low
$20.00
High
$32.00
Current price
$34.04
Average target
$26.83
Street summary

Dropbox (DBX) stock price target analysis

Bearish tilt

The data shows a significant negative gap between the current stock price (34.42) and the highest price target set by analysts (30), indicating that the stock is trading at levels exceeding the expectations of financial institutions. The average price target has remained stable at 26.5 over the past thirty days, despite an increase in the number of analysts contributing to the estimates, reflecting a consensus on a valuation lower than the current market value.

As of 2026-08-14
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 2.75
Hold
Analyst coverage
8
Buy conviction
13%
Target dispersion
35%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time8 analysts rating
1
4
2
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months2.73 → 2.75
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-08-07
    William Blair
    Market Perform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-07
    Bank of America Securities
    Underperform
  • = Reiterate2026-05-11
    Citigroup
    Neutral
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    20.15x
    7.02x56.18x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    11.08x
    5.21x41.67x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    13.92x
    4.43x35.48x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    11.6%
    -54.9%10.7%
    Exceptional
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -0.0%
    -18.1%67.2%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    10.4%
    -155.6%189.9%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    79.7%
    13.2%79.5%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    26.0%
    -63.6%26.8%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.99x
    0.26x3.23x
    Above average
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-06 data

Company Overview

Dropbox, Inc. (DBX) operates as a cloud content platform serving more than 18 million paying users, combining file storage, synchronization, security, search, permission management, and version history. Revenue generation relies on individual and team subscriptions, with products and services including Core Dropbox, Simple, Dash, and Replay; the company seeks to increase conversion and retention and sell higher-value plans and add-ons, while integrating artificial intelligence capabilities into the Dropbox experience and connecting content to tools such as ChatGPT and Claude.

In fiscal Q2 2026, revenue increased 0.9% year over year to $631.5 million, or 1.7% excluding FormSwift, while growth excluding FormSwift and on a constant-currency basis was only 0.1%. Total annual recurring revenue reached $2.566 billion, and the number of paying users was 18.19 million after a net addition of 96 thousand users, while average revenue per paying user increased to $139.68 from $138.32 a year earlier due to currency effects and a higher mix of monthly plans.

The non-GAAP gross margin was 81.6% in fiscal Q2 2026, down approximately 60 basis points, and the operating margin was 39.7%, exceeding guidance of 38.5% but declining by about 180 basis points year over year. Non-GAAP net income was $170 million, with diluted earnings per share of $0.75, and unlevered free cash flow was $283.5 million, or $1.25 per share, up 25% year over year. The call did not disclose separate revenue for each product, but it explained that Simple was the largest contributor to new-user growth, alongside a return to positive growth in Teams licenses.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Dropbox added approximately 96 thousand paying users in fiscal Q2 2026, marking its third consecutive quarter of user growth, and management said it expects paying-user growth to remain positive during fiscal 2026; Simple was the largest contributor to the increase, with Teams also making a positive contribution.
  • Improvements to the customer journey reduced the steps required to set up a new team from 12 steps to 4 steps, alongside improvements in conversion, activation, retention, payments, and upgrades when approaching storage limits; this was reflected in sequential growth in net new annual recurring revenue for Teams and the return of Teams licenses to positive growth for the first time since fiscal 2024, according to the call.
  • More than 150 thousand users had connected their accounts to the ChatGPT and Claude integrations as of August 6, 2026, despite limited investment allocated to them; management described engagement and retention levels as encouraging, but did not provide a quantified financial impact from these integrations.
  • The company is testing its intelligent next-generation file synchronization and sharing experience with a select group of customers and intends to significantly expand access during the remainder of fiscal 2026, including to the majority of the Teams base; capabilities include semantic search, automated file organization and naming, and reversible agentic workflows.
  • Dropbox raised its non-GAAP operating margin guidance for fiscal 2026 by 50 basis points to 40.0%–40.5%, raised its unlevered free cash flow guidance by $15 million to at least $1.070 billion, and increased the midpoint of its revenue guidance range by $13.5 million.
  • The company announced a new $900 million share repurchase authorization and repurchased approximately 12.6 million shares for about $315 million in fiscal Q2 2026; it had $1.385 billion remaining under its repurchase authorizations at the end of the quarter.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +User economics improved materially in fiscal Q2 2026; the paying-user count increased by 96 thousand users, Teams licenses returned to growth, and growth became broad-based across individuals, teams, and other products rather than relying on only one channel.
  • +Dropbox combines strong cash generation with operating discipline; it generated $283.5 million in unlevered free cash flow during the quarter and raised its fiscal 2026 guidance to at least $1.070 billion, with operating margin guidance of 40.0%–40.5%.
  • +The company has a direct distribution base of more than 18 million paying users and a platform that manages hundreds of billions of content items across several exabytes, allowing it to deploy semantic search, automated organization, and artificial intelligence-powered workflows within an established product rather than building a new user base from scratch.
  • +Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share increased to $0.75 from $0.71 despite the decline in net income, supported by a decrease in the diluted weighted-average share count to 226.8 million shares from 276.7 million shares, while unlevered free cash flow per share grew 25%.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus is Buy, with an average price target of $26.83 and a wide range of $20 to $32. The average target is approximately 26% below the 52-week high of $36.366, while the highest target of $32 is also below that peak, reflecting that improving user trends and cash flow are offset by limited revenue growth and pressure from artificial intelligence and interest expenses. The data does not provide a usable price-to-earnings multiple, so the valuation of DBX here is based on the target range, the 52-week range of $21.695–$36.366, and the company’s ability to convert user growth into sustainable growth in revenue and average revenue per user.

BuyAnalyst target: $26.83(-21.2%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were Dropbox’s key figures in fiscal Q2 2026?

Revenue was $631.5 million, up 0.9% year over year, or 1.7% excluding FormSwift. The company recorded a non-GAAP gross margin of 81.6% and an operating margin of 39.7%. Non-GAAP net income was $170 million, diluted earnings per share were $0.75, and unlevered free cash flow was $283.5 million.

Has DBX’s user base returned to growth?

Dropbox ended fiscal Q2 2026 with 18.19 million paying users, a sequential increase of approximately 96 thousand users. This was the third consecutive quarter of user growth and the strongest improvement referenced in analyst questions in approximately three years. Simple was the largest contributor to the increase, while Teams licenses turned to positive growth for the first time since fiscal 2024, and management expects positive user growth during fiscal 2026.

How does Dropbox use artificial intelligence in its products?

The company is integrating Dash intelligence into Dropbox through an intelligent file synchronization and sharing experience being tested with a select group of customers as of August 6, 2026. Functions include semantic search using text or images, automatic folder organization, naming files based on their content, summarizing changes, and executing agentic workflows while respecting permissions and version history. Dropbox plans to significantly expand access during the remainder of fiscal 2026, including to the majority of Teams users, without including a material financial contribution from these capabilities in its full-year guidance.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Revenue growth remains weak despite improving user trends; fiscal Q2 2026 revenue grew only 0.9%, while growth excluding FormSwift and on a constant-currency basis was 0.1%, and the midpoint of fiscal Q3 2026 guidance indicates roughly flat revenue year over year excluding FormSwift.
  • −Whether user growth will translate into stronger revenue growth remains unresolved, because management expects a modest sequential decline in average revenue per user during the remainder of fiscal 2026 due to the expiration of the FormSwift impact and the addition of lower-priced Simple users; it also did not include a material financial contribution from artificial intelligence products in its full-year guidance.
  • −Computing costs associated with expanding artificial intelligence capabilities are pressuring profitability; gross margin declined by about 60 basis points to 81.6%, and the company expects a gross margin of approximately 81.5% for fiscal 2026, with potential quarterly variability depending on deployment and usage rates and infrastructure efficiency.
  • −The operating margin in fiscal Q2 2026 declined by approximately 180 basis points year over year to 39.7% due to gross-margin dynamics and increased marketing spending, while the guidance beat also benefited partly from the deferral of certain brand and external-services expenses to the second half of the year.
  • −Non-GAAP net income fell to $170 million from $197.7 million, and operating cash flow declined to $238.5 million from $260.5 million; the company attributed this partly to higher interest expense and a $30 million increase in interest payments net of tax effects associated with the term loan facility.
  • −The analyst target range of $20–$32 reveals meaningful divergence in valuation estimates, while the average target of $26.83 is approximately 26% below the 52-week range high of $36.366, limiting reliance on the consensus target as standalone evidence of a return to previous highs. In addition, there was net insider selling of $2.3 million during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 20, 2026, across 12 sales and no purchases, with the caveat that these sales may have been prearranged and are not sufficient on their own to establish a negative view of the company.
What do Dropbox’s integrations with ChatGPT and Claude mean for DBX’s growth?

As of August 6, 2026, more than 150 thousand users had connected Dropbox to the ChatGPT and Claude integrations despite limited investment allocated to them. Customers use these connections to find and repurpose content and then store and share it through Dropbox, and management said engagement and retention indicators are encouraging. However, the company did not disclose revenue or paid-user increases resulting from the integrations, so their commercial significance remains an early usage signal rather than a proven financial driver.

What is Dropbox’s guidance for fiscal 2026?

The company expects revenue between $2.513 billion and $2.523 billion in fiscal 2026, equivalent to year-over-year growth of 0.8% at the midpoint excluding FormSwift. It raised its non-GAAP operating margin guidance to 40.0%–40.5% and set expected gross margin at approximately 81.5%. It also raised its unlevered free cash flow guidance to at least $1.070 billion, with expected capital expenditures between $20 million and $25 million.

What are the main risks to monitor for DBX stock?

Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue excluding FormSwift and on a constant-currency basis grew by only 0.1%, and the midpoint of fiscal Q3 2026 guidance indicates roughly flat growth excluding FormSwift. Management expects a modest sequential decline in average revenue per user during the remainder of fiscal 2026, while artificial intelligence computing costs pressure gross margin. Non-GAAP net income also declined to $170 million from $197.7 million due to factors that included higher interest expense associated with the term loan facility.