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Stocks
Chevron Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall94
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 5/9SafeBetter than 94% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
70
20.5x▼17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
49
10.2%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
76
11.3%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
84
0.6x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
53
3.26%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
90
21.4%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
74
14▲3Top tier
CVX

CVX Chevron Corporation

Chevron Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
214.01
▲ ⁦+0.59%⁩ (+1.25)
Market Cap$423.7B
Beta0.49
52w Low52w High
146.49217.40
Last Week
⁦+1.40%⁩
Last Month
⁦+9.80%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+14.59%⁩
Last Year
⁦+38.97%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$214
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$217
⁦+1%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$174–$243⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$260
⁦+22%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦4⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$217–$260⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$216.92
⁦+1.4%⁩
Current Price $214.01·Median $217.00
Low
$174.00
High
$243.00
Current price
$214.01
Average target
$216.92
Street summary

A Slight Increase in the Target with Clear Divergence

The consensus price target rose over the last 30 days from 211.08 to 216.92, an increase of 5.84 or 2.77%, making it slightly higher than the current price of 212.75. The consensus did not change over the last day or seven days, while the number of analysts declined from 6 to 5, reducing the comparability of the consensus directly despite its improvement nominally.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+2.8%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦25 (-1)⁩
Buy conviction
80%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
32%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time25 analysts rating
6
14
4
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.70 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-03
    Piper Sandler
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-09-03
    BMO Capital
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-09-03
    Wells Fargo
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    20.52x
    3.56x28.47x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    15.46x
    3.36x26.89x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    8.31x
    2.12x16.98x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    6.4%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    10.2%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    34.1%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    45.4%
    7.8%72.1%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    11.3%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.63x
    0.40x3.19x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    3.3%
    0.4%10.1%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    70.1%
    11.9%109.0%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    3.80
    -1.814.34
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-31 data

Company Overview

Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company that generates income from the production of oil, natural gas, and liquefied natural gas, followed by crude refining and petroleum product marketing, alongside petrochemicals operations through CPChem. Its portfolio includes key assets in Permian, Bakken, Guyana, TCO, Australia, and West Africa, and it is also expanding its model toward power generation for data centers through Project Kilby and a long-term power purchase agreement with Microsoft.

In fiscal Q2 2026, Chevron reported revenue of $70.1 billion and gross profit of $33.4 billion, equivalent to a calculated gross margin of approximately 47.6%. Net income was $12.1 billion, or $6.11 per share, equivalent to a calculated net margin of approximately 17.3%, while adjusted earnings were $12 billion, or $6.06 per share. The sequential improvement came from upstream operations due to higher realized prices, volumes sold, and timing effects, and from downstream operations due to higher refining margins and timing effects.

Operating cash flow excluding working capital was $19.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow was $15.4 billion, while the company reduced its debt by more than $8 billion and its net debt-to-operating cash flow ratio reached 0.6 times. Global upstream production increased by more than 5% sequentially and by more than 200 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, with record U.S. production of approximately 2.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and international production of approximately 2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, in addition to Permian production exceeding 1 million barrels per day for the fifth consecutive quarter.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Fiscal Q2 2026 results demonstrated clear cash strength, with adjusted earnings of $12 billion, operating cash flow excluding working capital of $19.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow of $15.4 billion, alongside a debt reduction of more than $8 billion.
  • The integration of Hess assets achieved annual synergies of $1.5 billion, 50% above the initial target and six months ahead of schedule, and management said free cash flow from Hess assets was approximately twice the incremental dividends associated with the transaction and was accretive on a per-share basis.
  • Chevron signed a binding 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft to provide 2.67 gigawatts of firm behind-the-meter capacity through Project Kilby; the company expects mid-teens returns and long-term contracted cash flows that do not depend on commodity price cycles.
  • The company improved the efficiency of its shale portfolio, expecting 25% lower capital spending per barrel of oil equivalent in 2026 compared with 2025, with expected spending of less than $3.5 billion in Permian and sustained Bakken production using one fewer drilling rig and horizontal wells that are 28% longer on average.
  • The 105-4X well discovery in Block 0 offshore Angola confirmed a hydrocarbon column exceeding 2,000 feet, including more than 300 feet of net pay, and Chevron is evaluating the possibility of tying it into existing infrastructure to reduce development costs and accelerate production.
  • Through 2030, management is targeting annual production growth of between 2% and 3%, average annual adjusted free cash flow growth exceeding 10%, and an improvement of more than 3% in return on capital employed, assuming commodity prices remain constant at levels below those referenced on the call.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Chevron combines production growth with improved efficiency; it achieved record U.S. production of approximately 2.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, while structural cost savings reached $3 billion annually six months ahead of schedule, with more than 70% coming from efficiency gains.
  • +Hess added high-margin Guyana assets with growth prospects extending into the 2030s, while annual integration synergies of $1.5 billion were achieved ahead of schedule and exceeded the original target by 50%.
  • +Project Kilby provides a path to diversify cash flows away from the oil price cycle, supported by Microsoft's 20-year contract, 2.67 gigawatts of capacity, and expected mid-teens returns, with advanced discussions underway for additional projects.
  • +The balance sheet supports project execution and capital returns; the company reduced debt by more than $8 billion during fiscal Q2 2026, and its net debt-to-operating cash flow ratio declined to 0.6 times.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $211.27, within a wide range of $174 to $224, with a consensus rating of “Buy.” The average is near the upper end of the 52-week range of $146.49–$214.71, while the highest target exceeds the peak of that range; therefore, the consensus assumes continued earnings and cash flow strength, but the wide dispersion in targets reflects meaningful differences in assessments of commodity, geopolitical, and project execution risks.

BuyAnalyst target: $211.27(-1.3%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove Chevron's fiscal Q2 2026 results?

Chevron reported revenue of $70.1 billion and net income of $12.1 billion, or $6.11 per share, in fiscal Q2 2026. Adjusted earnings were $12 billion, while operating cash flow excluding working capital reached $19.7 billion and adjusted free cash flow reached $15.4 billion. Upstream operations benefited from higher realized prices, volumes sold, and timing effects, while downstream operations benefited from higher refining margins and timing effects.

How did the Hess acquisition affect Chevron's business?

Management stated on the fiscal Q2 2026 call that the transaction had reached its first anniversary and that Chevron achieved annual synergies of $1.5 billion six months ahead of schedule. These synergies exceeded the initial target by 50%, and the company also said that Hess assets generated free cash flow equal to approximately twice the incremental dividends associated with the transaction. The transaction added Guyana assets with high-margin oil growth into the 2030s, alongside Bakken, where the company maintained similar production using one fewer drilling rig.

Why is Chevron's agreement with Microsoft important?

Chevron signed a binding 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft to provide 2.67 gigawatts of firm behind-the-meter capacity for a co-located data center campus within Project Kilby. The company expects the project to generate mid-teens returns and long-term contracted cash flows independent of commodity price cycles. Permitting, engineering, procurement, and construction work was progressing toward a final investment decision later in 2026, with advanced discussions regarding other opportunities for existing and prospective customers.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Earnings and cash flows remain highly sensitive to oil and gas prices and refining margins; management attributed the increase in upstream earnings in fiscal Q2 2026 to higher realized prices and the increase in downstream earnings to wider refining margins, while warning that it was difficult to determine when crude flows would return and product margins would contract.
  • −The CPC pipeline is the primary export route for TCO production, and management acknowledged that an extended shutdown would create problems for all shippers; the capacity of alternatives via the Caspian Sea, rail, and storage was not specified, leaving a significant portion of production exposed to risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Black Sea.
  • −Middle East operations and product supply chains remain exposed to geopolitical tensions; the impact of the conflict during fiscal Q2 2026 was limited to the Partitioned Zone, which represents approximately 1% of total production, but restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz affected crude and naphtha flows, while diesel and refined product supplies remained tight.
  • −Project Kilby requires the completion of permitting, engineering, procurement, and construction work and reaching a final investment decision, while management described turbine availability as limited; furthermore, any additional expansion at the site had neither been agreed upon nor negotiated as of the fiscal Q2 2026 call.
  • −The extension of the Jones Act waiver, covered in August 4, 2026 news, could pressure oil companies by facilitating fuel transportation and lowering gasoline prices, potentially reducing some of the benefit from tight refined product markets.
  • −Insider activity during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 18, 2026 recorded net sales of $302 million, with 21 sales and no purchases; this is a weak trading signal on its own because such sales may be prearranged unless the disclosures state otherwise.
  • What are Chevron's financial and operational targets through 2030?

    Chevron is targeting annual production growth of between 2% and 3% through 2030 and average annual adjusted free cash flow growth exceeding 10%. It is also targeting an improvement of more than 3% in return on capital employed, assuming commodity prices remain constant at levels below those referenced on the call. In 2026, the company expects to end the year at the low end of its $18–$19 billion capital spending range, after achieving annual structural cost savings of $3 billion six months ahead of schedule.

    What are Chevron's key production risks?

    The CPC pipeline is the primary export route for TCO production, so management said an extended shutdown would create problems for the company and other shippers. The two operating offshore mooring points were in service during the July 31, 2026 call, with the third expected to return following refurbishment work during fiscal Q3 2026. Mitigation measures include shipping via the Caspian Sea, rail, and the use of storage, but the company did not specify the amount of alternative capacity, while the impact of the Middle East conflict in fiscal Q2 2026 was limited to the Partitioned Zone, which represents approximately 1% of total production.

    How efficient are Permian and Bakken operations?

    Permian maintained production exceeding 1 million barrels per day for five consecutive quarters, and Chevron expects to spend less than $3.5 billion on it in 2026. The company expects capital spending per barrel of oil equivalent to decline by 25% in 2026 compared with 2025, supported by improvements in drilling, completions, reliability, and artificial lift optimization. In Bakken, Chevron drilled horizontal wells that were 28% longer on average and maintained similar production using one fewer drilling rig after integrating operating practices across the shale portfolio.