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Home
Stocks
Carvana Co.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall86
Excellent — top fifth of the marketFalling StarF 5/8SafeBetter than 86% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
28
32.6x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
95
54.0%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
68
56.7%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
72
0.6x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
78
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
49
-4.0%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
80
12▲3Top tier
CVNA

CVNA Carvana Co.

Carvana Co. · NYSE
Market Closed
69.16
▼ ⁦-1.59%⁩ (-1.12)
Market Cap$75.9B
Beta3.49
52w Low52w High
54.4697.38
Last Week
⁦-5.82%⁩
Last Month
⁦-4.58%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+1.98%⁩
Last Year
⁦-5.29%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$69
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$82
⁦+19%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$67–$120⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$9.32
⁦-87%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦13.3⁩% discount · ⁦7⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$9.32–$82⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$84.55
⁦+22.3%⁩
Current Price $69.16·Median $82.00
Low
$67.00
High
$120.00
Current price
$69.16
Average target
$84.55
Street summary

Carvana price targets stable with a slight decline

The consensus held steady at $84.55, unchanged over the last 7 days, while declining by $0.90, or 1.05%, over the last 30 days, with the number of analysts remaining at five. The range is between $67 and $120, while the median is $82, reflecting a clear divergence in estimates compared with the current price of $74.59.

As of 2026-09-07
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-1.1%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.88
Buy
Analyst coverage
24
Buy conviction
67%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
77%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time24 analysts rating
6
10
7
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.83 → 3.88
Recent analyst moves
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    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-31
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    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    32.64x
    4.56x36.49x
    Above average
  • Forward P/E
    38.85x
    3.79x30.29x
    Very expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    24.59x
    2.75x22.03x
    Expensive
  • FCF Yield
    1.8%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    54.0%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Exceptional
  • EPS Growth YoY
    351.8%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    19.4%
    12.0%66.5%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    56.7%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.62x
    0.65x5.48x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    6.04
    -2.656.14
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-29 data

Company Overview

Carvana operates a digital platform for buying and selling cars, and its growth capacity depends on expanding inventory, inspection and reconditioning centers, and its delivery and logistics network. The company generates its economics through profits from retail and wholesale vehicle sales, along with financing and other services; management explained that increasing the number of vehicles located near customers raises conversion, reduces delivery times and shipping fees, and improves marketing and logistics efficiency.

In fiscal Q2 2026, Carvana sold 197,325 retail vehicles, up 38%, and recorded record revenue of $7.376 billion, up 52%. Revenue growth exceeded unit growth because of gross revenue accounting treatment for certain vehicles purchased from a major retail marketplace partner, higher industry prices, and a shift toward newer, higher-cost vehicles; management said the accounting treatment effect will cease to affect annual comparisons beginning in fiscal Q3 2026.

Gross profit in EDGAR data for fiscal Q2 2026 was approximately $1.4 billion, equivalent to a gross margin of about 18.9% on revenue of $7.4 billion. EDGAR data reports net income of $310 million, while the earnings call reported net income of $513 million and a net margin of 7%, in addition to operating income of $680 million and record adjusted EBITDA of $769 million at a margin of 10.4%. At the profit-per-unit component level, non-GAAP retail profit declined by $105, wholesale profit by $158, and other profit by $192 year over year.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Retail unit growth reached 38% in fiscal Q2 2026 despite an industry decline of about 4%, and sales reached a record 197,325 vehicles, demonstrating Carvana's continued market-share gains from a base that management still estimates at only about 2% of the used-car market.
  • The relationship between production capacity and sales is clearly evident in the Midwest and Northeast, where inventory rose 57% and sales grew 54% in fiscal Q2 2026, compared with inventory growth of 17% and sales growth of 30% in the West and Southeast. Therefore, continued momentum depends on the company's ability to add reconditioning capacity at ADESA locations and existing inspection centers.
  • Carvana increased the size of its secured term loan facility B to $1.66 billion on August 12, 2026, and intends to use the proceeds, together with available cash, to fully repay its 9.00% senior secured notes due in 2030. This transaction could reduce interest costs and support cash flow, alongside net debt to adjusted EBITDA for the last 12 months reaching 1.0x in fiscal Q2 2026.
  • The company guided to adjusted EBITDA of between $2.7 billion and $3.0 billion in fiscal 2026, compared with $2.24 billion in fiscal 2025, and expects a sequential increase in retail units during fiscal Q3 2026. However, the upper end of $3.0 billion is close to the analyst estimate of $2.99 billion, while the range as a whole disappointed the market and the stock fell 8% in premarket trading on July 30, 2026.
  • Carvana uses artificial intelligence tools, including Sebastian, to improve the website experience and customer service; customer-service costs declined annually by 40%, then 30%, then 20%, then 10% over the four consecutive years described by management. Roll Call and Leader Hub had also not been fully implemented as of the July 29, 2026 call, leaving room for further operational improvement if the rollout is executed successfully.
  • The temporary shift toward newer, higher-priced vehicles, together with passing more than 100 basis points of financing rates on to customers, drove sales to customers with incomes above $100,000 up more than 60% year over year in fiscal Q2 2026. The company intends to gradually return to a mix closer to its traditional vehicles in terms of age and mileage, so the sustainability of growth will depend on expanding selection without reconditioning bottlenecks reemerging.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Carvana achieved a rare combination of growth and profitability in fiscal Q2 2026, with retail units rising 38%, revenue increasing 52%, adjusted EBITDA reaching $769 million, and operating income reaching $680 million.
  • +The company still represents about 2% of the used-car market and 1.5% of the overall automotive retail market despite selling nearly 200,000 vehicles in a single quarter, leaving substantial room for expansion if the demonstrated relationship between inventory growth and sales growth continues.
  • +The financial structure improved as net debt to adjusted EBITDA declined to 1.0x, while refinancing 9.00% notes through a $1.66 billion secured loan could reduce the interest burden and increase flexibility to finance expansion.
  • +Management targets annual sales of 3 million vehicles at a 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin between 2030 and 2035, and the scale-up required to achieve the target has declined from about six times the scale when it was announced to less than four times the scale as of the fiscal Q2 2026 call.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus on CVNA is “Neutral,” with an average target of $84.55 and a wide range between $67 and $120; the average is about 13% below the 52-week range high of $97.378, while the highest target exceeds that high by about 23%. No P/E ratio is available in the provided data despite fiscal 2025 net income of $1.4 billion and earnings per share of $8.45, so the wide target range and the stock's decline following earnings guidance on July 30, 2026 remain indicators of significant disagreement over the sustainability of growth and margins.

HoldAnalyst target: $84.55(+22.3%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were Carvana's key results in fiscal Q2 2026?

Carvana sold 197,325 retail vehicles, up 38% year over year, and generated record revenue of $7.376 billion, up 52%. Adjusted EBITDA reached $769 million at a margin of 10.4%, while operating income was $680 million. The call reported net income of $513 million and a net margin of 7%, while the provided EDGAR data listed net income of $310 million and gross profit of $1.4 billion.

Why did Carvana's revenue grow faster than the number of vehicles sold?

Retail units increased 38% in fiscal Q2 2026, while revenue rose 52%. The company attributed the difference to gross revenue accounting treatment for certain vehicles purchased from a major retail marketplace partner, higher industry vehicle prices, and a shift toward newer, higher-cost vehicles. Management said the accounting treatment effect will cease to affect annual comparisons beginning in fiscal Q3 2026, bringing revenue growth closer to unit growth.

What is Carvana's earnings guidance for fiscal 2026?

Carvana expects adjusted EBITDA of between $2.7 billion and $3.0 billion in fiscal 2026, compared with $2.24 billion in fiscal 2025. It also expects a sequential increase in retail units sold during fiscal Q3 2026 compared with Q2. Investors viewed the range as falling short of market expectations, despite fiscal Q2 adjusted EBITDA slightly exceeding the consensus estimate at $769 million versus $766.2 million.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

−
Inventory growth remained below sales growth for several months through the middle of fiscal Q2 2026, and management said this shortfall pressures conversion and may appear as lower sales or weaker economics. Expanding reconditioning centers also requires facility construction, hiring, training, and consistent execution, following the reconditioning-cost issues that emerged between the previous Q4 and Q1.
  • −EBITDA per unit declined by about $300 year over year in fiscal Q2 2026, the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year decline according to the analyst's question, while the retail profit, wholesale profit, and other profit components fell by $105, $158, and $192 per unit, respectively. The adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 10.4% from 12.4%, even as absolute adjusted earnings reached a record level.
  • −Adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal 2026 of between $2.7 billion and $3.0 billion fell short of market expectations in investors' view, although the upper end is close to the $2.99 billion estimate, causing the stock to fall 8% before the market opened on July 30, 2026. Profitability also faces pressure from higher fuel prices, benchmark interest rates, and increased advertising spending planned for fiscal Q3 2026.
  • −Reported revenue growth will mathematically slow beginning in fiscal Q3 2026 because the effect of gross revenue accounting for certain vehicles from the major partner will no longer enter the annual comparison, and management expects revenue growth to become closer to retail unit growth. This makes the 52% revenue growth rate in fiscal Q2 2026 unsuitable for direct extrapolation.
  • −Legal investigations involving Mark Walter have raised concerns that he may be forced to liquidate a large stake to obtain liquidity, and these concerns contributed to a weekly loss of 10% through August 19, 2026. The direct risk cited in the context is potential selling pressure on the stock and instability in the ownership structure, not a confirmed change in Carvana's operations or management.
  • −Insider data gives a strong_sell signal, with net sales of $23.5 million over three months and 41 sales versus two purchases, and the latest transaction was on August 3, 2026. This is a weak market signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the context does not explain the motivations for the transactions or whether they were subject to scheduled selling plans.
  • How does inventory expansion support Carvana's growth?

    In the Midwest and Northeast, inventory rose 57% and sales grew 54% in fiscal Q2 2026. In the West and Southeast, where less production capacity was added, inventory grew 17% and sales increased 30%. Management explains this by noting that broader selection raises conversion, improves marketing efficiency, shortens delivery distances, and reduces shipping fees, but companywide inventory remained below the required level for several months.

    What role do Sebastian and artificial intelligence play in Carvana's business?

    Carvana uses the Sebastian assistant and other AI-powered features to simplify customer answers and the website experience and accelerate product development. According to management, customer-service costs declined annually by 40%, then 30%, then 20%, then 10% during the four consecutive years preceding the July 29, 2026 call. The company did not provide a separate conversion rate for Sebastian, and the operational Roll Call and Leader Hub tools had not been fully implemented across all locations as of that date.

    What are the main risks CVNA shareholders are monitoring?

    Operational risks include inventory growth lagging sales, EBITDA per unit declining by about $300 annually, and the adjusted EBITDA margin falling to 10.4% from 12.4% in fiscal Q2 2026. Fuel prices, benchmark interest rates, and planned advertising spending also pressure unit economics, while investors viewed fiscal 2026 guidance as below market expectations. At the trading level, investigations involving Mark Walter raised the possibility of a large stake sale, while insiders recorded net sales of $23.5 million over three months, with the caveat that these sales may have been prearranged.