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Home
Stocks
Cenovus Energy Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall97
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 5/8Better than 97% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
87
13.2x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
63
-4.0%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
72
20.4%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
83
0.5x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
30
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
99
84.6%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
67
7▲3Top tier
CVE

CVE Cenovus Energy Inc.

Cenovus Energy Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
33.11
▼ ⁦-0.69%⁩ (-0.23)
Market Cap$61.1B
Beta0.49
52w Low52w High
15.6334.16
Last Week
⁦+0.91%⁩
Last Month
⁦+10.96%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+16.71%⁩
Last Year
⁦+103.25%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$33
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$36
⁦+9%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$36–$36⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$53
⁦+59%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦3⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$36–$53⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$36.00
⁦+8.7%⁩
Current Price $33.11·Median $36.00
Low
$36.00
High
$36.00
Street summary

Target Holds Steady Amid UBS Downgrade

Price targets were unchanged over 1, 7, or 30 days; consensus, as well as the high, low, and median targets, remained at 36, based on the input of 5 analysts. This indicates no dispersion in the targets and stability in the quantitative valuation, with the target remaining approximately 7.6% above the current price of 33.46, according to the provided data.

As of 2026-09-09
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.33
Buy
Analyst coverage
18
Buy conviction
94%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 1↓
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time18 analysts rating
7
10
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.13 → 4.33
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-09-02
    UBS
    BuyNeutral
  • = Reiterate2026-08-27
    CIBC
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-19
    Morgan Stanley
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    13.20x
    3.56x28.47x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    5.92x
    2.12x16.98x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    8.6%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -4.0%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    153.0%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    21.4%
    7.8%72.1%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    20.4%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.52x
    0.40x3.19x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-29 data

Company Overview

Cenovus Energy operates an integrated energy model that combines upstream oil and gas production with downstream crude refining and product marketing. In Q2 FY2026, average upstream production exceeded 970 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, including more than 786 thousand barrels per day from the oil sands, while Christina Lake produced about 372 thousand barrels per day, Foster Creek approximately 215 thousand, and Sunrise about 66 thousand. This integration provides a refining outlet for its growing production; Canadian refineries processed 102 thousand barrels per day at a utilization rate of approximately 94%, while U.S. refineries processed 350 thousand barrels per day at a utilization rate of approximately 96%.

Cenovus recorded the best quarterly financial result in its history in Q2 FY2026, according to management, with an operating margin of approximately C$5.9 billion and adjusted funds flow of C$5 billion. Upstream contributed more than C$4.9 billion of operating margin, while downstream generated about C$1 billion, including C$144 million in inventory holding gains. News dated July 29, 2026 reported quarterly revenue of $14.59 billion and earnings per share of $1.11, in line with analysts' estimates.

The latest available EDGAR statements for Q3 FY2025 show revenue of $13.2 billion, net income of $1.3 billion, and earnings per share of $0.72, compared with revenue of $13.8 billion, net income of $820 million, and earnings per share of $0.42 in Q3 FY2024. This represents a year-over-year revenue decline of approximately 4%, alongside an increase of about 59% in net income and about 71% in earnings per share. The provided data did not include a gross profit figure, so a reliable gross margin cannot be derived.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Cenovus raised its full-year FY2026 production guidance to a range of 970 thousand–1.01 million barrels of oil equivalent per day without changing its capital investment guidance of C$5.0–5.3 billion, while also lowering unit-cost guidance for the oil sands, conventional operations, and Asia Pacific.
  • Christina Lake production reached a quarterly record of 372 thousand barrels per day, supported by Narrows Lake exceeding 80 thousand barrels per day ahead of plan; the first four well pads achieved the production rate originally expected from five pads, with the next Narrows Lake pad scheduled to start up during the second half of FY2026.
  • The company is targeting an increase in Christina Lake North production to 150 thousand barrels per day by 2028, after current rates exceeded nameplate capacity of 110 thousand barrels per day. Management expects production to approach 125 thousand barrels per day by the end of FY2026, supported by redevelopment wells and the startup of the fifth OTSG steam generator in Q4 FY2026.
  • Cenovus shortened the planned turnaround for phases F and G at Christina Lake by nine days and reduced expected production losses by more than 700 thousand barrels; together with improved maintenance at Foster Creek, it expects to produce more than 1.2 million additional barrels compared with the FY2026 maintenance budget.
  • Net debt declined to C$5.4 billion at the end of Q2 FY2026, a quarterly decrease of C$2.7 billion, after the company fully repaid the remaining C$2.2 billion balance of the MEG transaction loan. After net debt fell below C$6 billion, the company is targeting a gradual increase in shareholder returns to 75% of excess free funds flow while continuing to advance toward its long-term net debt target of C$4 billion.
  • West White Rose remains a time-specific production catalyst; drilling of the first production well was underway on July 29, 2026, and the company expected first oil in late Q3 FY2026, followed by the drilling of a batch of six additional wells.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The stock combines actual production growth with improving unit costs; oil sands production exceeded 786 thousand barrels per day, while non-fuel operating costs declined by approximately C$0.65 per barrel quarter over quarter to C$8.28.
  • +Upstream and downstream integration provides operational diversification across the value chain; in Q2 FY2026, upstream generated more than C$4.9 billion in operating margin, while downstream added about C$1 billion, with utilization of 94% in Canada and 96% in the United States.
  • +Projects demonstrated tangible execution capability; the enhanced sulfur recovery project at Foster Creek was completed on May 19, 2026 ahead of schedule and within budget, and is expected to reduce operating chemical costs by C$0.50–0.75 per barrel and eliminate about 700 annual truck trips from the site.
  • +Strong cash flow supports both deleveraging and capital returns; adjusted funds flow reached C$5 billion, net debt declined to C$5.4 billion, and the company repurchased C$1 billion of common shares and paid C$411 million in dividends during Q2 FY2026.

▼ Selling Case7 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus is “Neutral,” with an average price target of $36 and identical high and low targets of $36; this uniformity means the provided consensus data does not show an actual range of disagreement among analysts. The target is approximately 8% above the 52-week range high of $33.40, while the range extends down to $15.63, and July 29, 2026 coverage cited a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 times; therefore, the valuation rationale depends on sustained record production and cost reductions, balanced against earnings sensitivity to crude prices, refining margins, and maintenance.

HoldAnalyst target: $36(+8.7%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove CVE's record Q2 FY2026 results?

Cenovus generated an operating margin of approximately C$5.9 billion and adjusted funds flow of C$5 billion, both quarterly records for the company. Upstream benefited from higher benchmark oil prices and increased oil sands production, generating more than C$4.9 billion in margin. Downstream added about C$1 billion in operating margin, including C$144 million in inventory holding gains, with utilization of 94% at Canadian refineries and 96% at U.S. refineries.

How did Cenovus's FY2026 production guidance change?

The company raised its production guidance range to 970 thousand–1.01 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, without changing its capital investment guidance of C$5.0–5.3 billion. The increase followed average production exceeding 970 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q2 FY2026 and July 2026 production rising toward 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Christina Lake and Foster Creek led the increase, alongside expected additional contributions from Sunrise, West White Rose, Lloydminster, and conventional operations.

Why are Narrows Lake and Christina Lake North important for CVE stock?

Narrows Lake production exceeded 80 thousand barrels per day ahead of plan, and four well pads achieved the production rate expected from the first five pads. This helped lift Christina Lake production to a quarterly record of 372 thousand barrels per day, with total site production reaching about 400 thousand barrels per day in July 2026, according to management. At Christina Lake North, production exceeded nameplate capacity of 110 thousand barrels per day, while the company is targeting 150 thousand barrels per day by 2028.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Results remain highly sensitive to oil prices, crude differentials, and refining margins; management attributed the increase in upstream margin to higher benchmark prices and increased oil sands production, while downstream benefited from wider heavy crude differentials and strong refining margins. The WCS differential on the Gulf Coast also ranged from negative $2 to negative $12 during Q2 FY2026, illustrating the wide range of pricing volatility.
  • −Oil sands operations depend on substantial condensate supplies for diluent; conventional operations produce only about 20 thousand barrels per day compared with consumption of approximately 240 thousand barrels per day, with a large portion of requirements sourced from the United States. Accelerating industry growth could create an earlier need for pipeline expansions, condensate recycling, or other transportation solutions.
  • −The company faces downstream execution and maintenance risks during the second half of FY2026, with a major planned turnaround at the Lima refinery covering the crude unit, vacuum unit, hydrocracking and reforming units, and other units. Management also expected capital spending to increase in the second half as maintenance activity rises, despite maintaining full-year guidance of C$5.0–5.3 billion.
  • −The financial improvement includes a relatively non-recurring component; downstream operating margin in Q2 FY2026 included C$144 million in inventory holding gains. The adjusted market capture rate also declined to 67% because of higher Midwest gasoline prices, lagging asphalt and byproduct prices, and temporary disruptions that increased the cost of Bakken, Midland, and WTI crude grades.
  • −Q3 FY2025 revenue declined to $13.2 billion from $13.8 billion in the comparable quarter, or by approximately 4%, despite improved net income. Older comparisons also show that Q3 FY2025 revenue was below the $14.6 billion reported in one Q3 FY2023 data point, making the sustainability of revenue growth less clear than the improvement in earnings.
  • −The Canadian regulatory framework remains not fully resolved; management described the trilateral memorandum of understanding in July 2026 as only a first step and noted that it still included a carbon tax it considers uncompetitive and requires final agreements. The final shape of policies, regulations, and fiscal frameworks could affect the viability of oil sands growth investments.
  • −Valuation represents a risk if the announced production increases and cost reductions do not materialize; news coverage dated July 29, 2026 cited a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 times, while the analyst consensus is Neutral rather than Buy. Earnings per share of $1.11 also matched expectations rather than exceeding them, limiting evidence of a positive surprise in Q2 FY2026.
  • How did Cenovus use cash flow in Q2 FY2026?

    The company reduced net debt by C$2.7 billion during the quarter to C$5.4 billion. It fully repaid the remaining C$2.2 billion balance of the loan associated with the MEG transaction completed in November, repurchased C$1 billion of common shares, and paid C$411 million in dividends. After net debt fell below C$6 billion, management is targeting a gradual increase in shareholder returns to 75% of excess free funds flow while pursuing a C$4 billion net debt target.

    What are the main operational risks facing Cenovus during FY2026?

    The company plans major maintenance at the Lima refinery during September and October 2026 covering the crude, vacuum, hydrocracking, and reforming units, increasing downstream outage and execution risks. Upstream, maintenance for phases F and G at Christina Lake was scheduled during Q3 FY2026, although the company shortened its duration by nine days and reduced expected production losses by more than 700 thousand barrels. The company's operations also consume about 240 thousand barrels per day of condensate compared with conventional production of approximately 20 thousand, making diluent availability and cost important factors.

    What do the Neutral analyst consensus and $36 valuation mean for CVE stock?

    The provided data classifies the analyst consensus as “Neutral,” with an average target of $36 and identical high and low targets. This target is approximately 8% above the 52-week range high of $33.40, while the range floor is $15.63. July 29, 2026 coverage cited a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 times, so supporting the valuation requires continued production growth and lower unit costs while avoiding declines in crude prices and refining margins.