| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 87 | 13.2x | 17.8x | Top tier | |
Growth | 63 | -4.0% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 72 | 20.4% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 83 | 0.5x | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 30 | — | 2.12% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 99 | 84.6% | 2.9% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 67 | 7 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Cenovus Energy operates an integrated energy model that combines upstream oil and gas production with downstream crude refining and product marketing. In Q2 FY2026, average upstream production exceeded 970 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, including more than 786 thousand barrels per day from the oil sands, while Christina Lake produced about 372 thousand barrels per day, Foster Creek approximately 215 thousand, and Sunrise about 66 thousand. This integration provides a refining outlet for its growing production; Canadian refineries processed 102 thousand barrels per day at a utilization rate of approximately 94%, while U.S. refineries processed 350 thousand barrels per day at a utilization rate of approximately 96%.
Cenovus recorded the best quarterly financial result in its history in Q2 FY2026, according to management, with an operating margin of approximately C$5.9 billion and adjusted funds flow of C$5 billion. Upstream contributed more than C$4.9 billion of operating margin, while downstream generated about C$1 billion, including C$144 million in inventory holding gains. News dated July 29, 2026 reported quarterly revenue of $14.59 billion and earnings per share of $1.11, in line with analysts' estimates.
The latest available EDGAR statements for Q3 FY2025 show revenue of $13.2 billion, net income of $1.3 billion, and earnings per share of $0.72, compared with revenue of $13.8 billion, net income of $820 million, and earnings per share of $0.42 in Q3 FY2024. This represents a year-over-year revenue decline of approximately 4%, alongside an increase of about 59% in net income and about 71% in earnings per share. The provided data did not include a gross profit figure, so a reliable gross margin cannot be derived.
The analyst consensus is “Neutral,” with an average price target of $36 and identical high and low targets of $36; this uniformity means the provided consensus data does not show an actual range of disagreement among analysts. The target is approximately 8% above the 52-week range high of $33.40, while the range extends down to $15.63, and July 29, 2026 coverage cited a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 times; therefore, the valuation rationale depends on sustained record production and cost reductions, balanced against earnings sensitivity to crude prices, refining margins, and maintenance.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Cenovus generated an operating margin of approximately C$5.9 billion and adjusted funds flow of C$5 billion, both quarterly records for the company. Upstream benefited from higher benchmark oil prices and increased oil sands production, generating more than C$4.9 billion in margin. Downstream added about C$1 billion in operating margin, including C$144 million in inventory holding gains, with utilization of 94% at Canadian refineries and 96% at U.S. refineries.
The company raised its production guidance range to 970 thousand–1.01 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, without changing its capital investment guidance of C$5.0–5.3 billion. The increase followed average production exceeding 970 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q2 FY2026 and July 2026 production rising toward 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Christina Lake and Foster Creek led the increase, alongside expected additional contributions from Sunrise, West White Rose, Lloydminster, and conventional operations.
Narrows Lake production exceeded 80 thousand barrels per day ahead of plan, and four well pads achieved the production rate expected from the first five pads. This helped lift Christina Lake production to a quarterly record of 372 thousand barrels per day, with total site production reaching about 400 thousand barrels per day in July 2026, according to management. At Christina Lake North, production exceeded nameplate capacity of 110 thousand barrels per day, while the company is targeting 150 thousand barrels per day by 2028.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The company reduced net debt by C$2.7 billion during the quarter to C$5.4 billion. It fully repaid the remaining C$2.2 billion balance of the loan associated with the MEG transaction completed in November, repurchased C$1 billion of common shares, and paid C$411 million in dividends. After net debt fell below C$6 billion, management is targeting a gradual increase in shareholder returns to 75% of excess free funds flow while pursuing a C$4 billion net debt target.
The company plans major maintenance at the Lima refinery during September and October 2026 covering the crude, vacuum, hydrocracking, and reforming units, increasing downstream outage and execution risks. Upstream, maintenance for phases F and G at Christina Lake was scheduled during Q3 FY2026, although the company shortened its duration by nine days and reduced expected production losses by more than 700 thousand barrels. The company's operations also consume about 240 thousand barrels per day of condensate compared with conventional production of approximately 20 thousand, making diluent availability and cost important factors.
The provided data classifies the analyst consensus as “Neutral,” with an average target of $36 and identical high and low targets. This target is approximately 8% above the 52-week range high of $33.40, while the range floor is $15.63. July 29, 2026 coverage cited a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.2 times, so supporting the valuation requires continued production growth and lower unit costs while avoiding declines in crude prices and refining margins.
