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Cavco Industries, Inc.
CVCO

CVCO Cavco Industries, Inc.

Cavco Industries, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
529.64
▲ ⁦+1.20%⁩ (+6.29)
Market Cap$4.1B
Beta1.28
52w Low52w High
443.34713.01
Last Week
⁦-4.20%⁩
Last Month
⁦-8.39%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-1.63%⁩
Last Year
⁦+1.73%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall68
Strong — clearly above market medianFalling StarF 8/9SafeBetter than 68% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
49
23.0x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
43
9.7%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
71
14.9%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
93
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
54
—2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
43
13.1%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
23
2▼3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Current price$530
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$700
⁦+32%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$700–$700⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$454
⁦-14%⁩
Sees it slightly overvalued
⁦10.1⁩% discount · ⁦3⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$454–$700⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$700.00
⁦+32.2%⁩
Current Price $529.64·Median $700.00
Low
$700.00
High
$700.00
Street summary

Analyst Forecast Analysis for Cavco Industries (CVCO) Stock

The price target for CVCO stock stands at 700, indicating a positive gap compared to the current price of 607.1. However, this consensus is limited to only one analyst, which implies a lack of statistical dispersion but simultaneously points to a weakness in the depth of analytical coverage and the absence of a comprehensive institutional view for valuing the stock.

As of 2026-08-13
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.33
Buy
Analyst coverage
3
Buy conviction
100%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time3 analysts rating
1
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.50 → 4.33
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-08-06
    Zelman
    OutperformNeutral
  • = Reiterate2026-06-05
    UBS
    Buy
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-02-05
    Zelman
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    22.99x
    4.56x36.49x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    21.68x
    3.79x30.29x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    15.76x
    2.75x22.03x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    5.8%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    9.7%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -0.1%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    23.2%
    12.0%66.5%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    14.9%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    9.29
    -2.656.14
    Exceptional
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-31 data

Company Overview

Cavco Industries produces factory-built homes and sells them through company-owned stores, as well as independent retailers, residential communities, builders, and developers. The factory-built housing segment is the primary revenue driver, while the financial services segment adds revenue from loan origination and sales and insurance activities. In Q1 fiscal 2027, factory-built housing revenue was $586 million, or approximately 96.1% of total revenue, compared with $24 million for financial services, or approximately 3.9%.

The company reported record revenue of $610 million in Q1 fiscal 2027, up 9.5% from $556.9 million in the comparable quarter, as shipments rose to a quarterly record of 5,657 homes. Gross profit was $134.6 million, with a consolidated gross margin of 22.1% versus 23.3% a year earlier, while net income declined to $42.3 million from $51.6 million and diluted earnings per share fell to $5.43 from $6.42. On a fiscal 2027 trailing twelve-month basis, revenue was $2.3 billion, gross profit was $532 million, and net income was $181.2 million.

The results mix reflected a clear divergence between the two segments; factory-built housing gross margin declined to 20.8% from 22.6% due to higher cost per unit, while financial services margin increased to 52.4% from 40.9%, supported by higher loan sales, increased insurance premiums, underwriting changes, and gains in the insurance operation's equity portfolio. Selling, general, and administrative expenses also rose to $81.8 million, or 13.4% of revenue, from $69.1 million, or 12.4%, due to the addition of American Homestar and higher employee costs and sales and marketing spending.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The backlog at the end of Q1 fiscal 2027 increased by more than 50% compared with the end of the previous quarter and was approximately 50% above its level a year earlier, despite a 13% sequential increase in shipments; backlog duration also reached a range of 7 to 9 weeks.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Net orders achieved double-digit sequential growth in every region, and orders increased by more than 10% across the builder, developer, residential community, and retail channels, indicating broad-based demand rather than reliance on a single region or channel.
  • Capacity utilization was only 75% while shipping a record 5,657 units, leaving room to increase production and spread fixed costs across more units if order strength continues.
  • Financial services revenue increased 13.3% to $24 million, and its gross margin rose to 52.4% from 40.9%, with growth in loan originations and sales and improved insurance results; A.M. Best also revised the outlook for the insurance operation's financial strength and credit ratings to positive.
  • The ROAD to Housing Act became law before the July 31, 2026 call and includes provisions related to factory-built housing, such as removable chassis flexibility and support for modernizing certain financing programs. Management believes the volume impact will emerge gradually as state definitions are aligned and municipalities ease zoning barriers, and it did not provide a quantitative forecast or specific timeline for this impact.
  • The company generated $74.5 million in operating cash flow during Q1 fiscal 2027 and repurchased $30 million of shares, ending the period with $243 million of unrestricted cash and approximately $188 million remaining under the repurchase authorization.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case5 pts

    • +A backlog that is more than 50% higher, combined with capacity utilization of only 75%, provides both relative visibility into near-term shipment volumes and the ability to increase production at existing factories if orders remain at the levels recorded in Q1 fiscal 2027.
    • +Demand strength appears broad-based; every region recorded double-digit sequential growth, and the retail, residential community, builder, and developer channels all increased by more than 10%, without the increase depending on a single channel.
    • +The financial services segment provides a growing source of profitability after its revenue increased 13.3% and its gross margin expanded by 11.5 percentage points to 52.4%, supported by loan sales and insurance.
    • +Liquidity supports capital allocation flexibility; operating cash flow was $74.5 million, and the company retained $243 million of unrestricted cash after investing $27.5 million in factory and equipment improvements and repurchasing $30 million of shares.
    • +The ROAD to Housing Act could expand the addressable market over time through removable-chassis designs and improved access to urban and suburban locations, while management stated that it had begun discussions with land developers who were not interested two years ago.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Q1 fiscal 2027 profitability declined despite revenue growth; pretax income fell 14.6% to $55.8 million, net income declined to $42.3 million from $51.6 million, and diluted earnings per share fell to $5.43 from $6.42.
    • −Consolidated gross margin contracted to 22.1% from 23.3%, and factory-built housing margin declined to 20.8% from 22.6% due to higher unit costs, while selling, general, and administrative expenses increased to 13.4% of revenue from 12.4%.
    • −The company faces pricing competition in its company-owned stores concentrated in Texas; visitor traffic increased, but closing rates declined, and lower retail prices pressured margin compared with the previous quarter, despite management's assertion that pricing remained profitable.
    • −Raw material and tariff pressures may persist; management estimated the negative impact of tariffs and inflation on cost of sales at approximately $5 million compared with the previous quarter and said that increases in lumber and steel costs appear after a lag of 60 to 90 days, with limited visibility into the subsequent trajectory.
    • −The expected benefits from the ROAD to Housing Act and improvements in the chattel loan market depend on regulatory and financing implementation with an unspecified timeline; management said the volume impact would take time and that it could not provide a well-founded estimate of when government-sponsored entities would begin purchasing these loans.
    • −Insider activity produced a strong selling signal, with net sales of $2.2 million during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 18, 2026, involving five sales and no purchases. This remains a weaker trading signal than earnings and margin risks because insider sales may be prearranged unless disclosures state otherwise.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is Buy, with a uniform target of $700; both the highest and lowest targets are $700, meaning there is no meaningful range of disagreement that can be used to assess the dispersion of views. This target is only approximately 1.8% below the 52-week range high of $713.01, while the range low is $443.34, and no price-to-earnings ratio is available in the provided data. This high target should be weighed against the approximately 18% decline in Q1 fiscal 2027 net income and margin contraction, as approaching upper-end valuations requires continued backlog strength and the conversion of higher volume into an earnings recovery.

    BuyAnalyst target: $700(+32.2%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove Cavco's revenue growth in Q1 fiscal 2027?

    Revenue increased 9.5% to $610 million from $556.9 million in the comparable quarter, marking the first time quarterly revenue exceeded $600 million. The company recorded a quarterly record of 5,657 units, and shipments increased 13% compared with the previous quarter. Factory-built housing revenue was $586 million, driven by the addition of American Homestar and higher average revenue from legacy homes due to an increased share of sales through company-owned stores and a higher mix of multi-section homes, partially offset by price reductions.

    Did CVCO's increase in orders translate into a backlog capable of supporting production?

    Yes, the backlog at the end of Q1 fiscal 2027 increased by more than 50% from the end of the previous quarter and was approximately 50% above its level a year earlier. Backlog duration reached between 7 and 9 weeks despite increased production and a record 5,657 units shipped. Every region also recorded double-digit sequential growth, and orders increased by more than 10% across retail, residential communities, builders, and developers.

    Why did Cavco's earnings decline despite record revenue?

    Consolidated gross margin in Q1 fiscal 2027 declined to 22.1% from 23.3%, and factory-built housing margin fell to 20.8% from 22.6%. Management estimated the impact of tariffs and inflation on cost of sales at approximately $5 million compared with the previous quarter, alongside more intense pricing competition at the company's owned retail stores in Texas. Selling, general, and administrative expenses also increased to $81.8 million, and the effective tax rate rose to 24.2% from 20.9%, causing diluted earnings per share to decline to $5.43 from $6.42.

    How important is the financial services segment to CVCO's earnings?

    The segment generated revenue of $24 million in Q1 fiscal 2027, up 13.3% from $21.2 million a year earlier. Its gross margin increased to 52.4% from 40.9% due to higher loan sales, increased insurance premiums, underwriting changes, and gains in the insurance equity portfolio. The company also stated that insurance claims performance exceeded its profitability expectations and that A.M. Best revised the outlook for its financial strength and credit ratings to positive.

    How could the ROAD to Housing Act affect Cavco?

    The law took effect before the earnings call held on July 31, 2026, and includes provisions intended to expand the use of factory-built housing and support buyers' financing needs. Cavco believes the removable-chassis option could help it offer homes with an appearance closer to traditional construction and enter urban and suburban locations that previously faced zoning barriers. However, management said that aligning state definitions and obtaining municipal responses would take time, and it did not provide a numerical forecast for additional volume or a specific date for the impact to begin.

    Does Cavco have sufficient liquidity to increase production and repurchase shares?

    Cash and restricted cash totaled $266.2 million at the end of Q1 fiscal 2027, including $243 million of unrestricted cash. Operations generated $74.5 million in cash, while the company used $27.5 million for factory and equipment improvements and $30 million for share repurchases. Approximately $188 million remained under the repurchase authorization, and the company had repurchased more than 19% of its outstanding shares for over $600 million during slightly more than five years.