EL7.AI
Strategy BuilderCOT DataAdvanced NewsResearchNewEarnings CalendarEconomic Calendar
We use cookiesPrivacy Policy
EL7.AIEL7.AI

AI Financial Intelligence
Professional analysis of central bank decisions

© 2026 EL7.AI. All rights reserved.

Markets

  • News
  • Forex
  • Stocks
  • Crypto
  • Gold
  • Commodities
  • Indices
  • ETFs

Analysis

  • Fed
  • ECB
  • BLS
  • COT
  • Economic Calendar

Learn

  • Service Guide
  • Oil

Company

  • About
  • Contact
  • Data Methodology
  • AI Disclosure
  • Pricing
  • Enterprise
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Security
  • WhatsApp
Status data is currently unavailable

The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Home
Stocks
CareTrust REIT, Inc.
CTRE

CTRE CareTrust REIT, Inc.

CareTrust REIT, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
38.62
▼ ⁦-0.52%⁩ (-0.20)
Market Cap$9.2B
Beta0.80
52w Low52w High
32.7943.62
Last Week
⁦-2.40%⁩
Last Month
⁦-4.45%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+1.55%⁩
Last Year
⁦+12.46%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall78
Strong — clearly above market medianHigh FlyerF 5/9Better than 78% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
30
24.0x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
81
53.0%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
66
8.9%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
77
2.1x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
63
3.75%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
61
19.8%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
61
5▲3Around median
Fair Value
Current price$39
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$44
⁦+14%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$43–$47⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$25
⁦-36%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$25–$44⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

Compare in the screener
Premium content

Get Your Premium Account Now

  • Stock Deep Analysis
  • The Advanced News Platform
Recommended
Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$44.43
⁦+15.0%⁩
Current Price $38.62·Median $44.00
Low
$43.00
High
$47.00
Current price
$38.62
Average target
$44.43
Street summary

Analyst Forecast Analysis for CareTrust REIT (CTRE) Stock

The analyst outlook for CTRE stock shifted toward caution during August 2026, as RBC Capital downgraded the stock from "Outperform" to "Sector Perform" on August 14. Despite this downgrade, the average price target remained steady at $44.5 throughout the past 30 days, indicating a positive price gap compared to the current price of $39.58, albeit with a decline in the momentum of optimism regarding the stock's relative performance.

As of 2026-08-21
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-0.5%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.08
Buy
Analyst coverage
13
Buy conviction
92%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 1↓
Target dispersion
10%
Analyst ratings over time13 analysts rating
2
10
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.08 → 4.08
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-08-14
    RBC Capital
    OutperformSector Perform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-10
    Cantor Fitzgerald
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-06-15
    BMO Capital
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    23.99x
    5.03x40.26x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    25.48x
    5.89x47.13x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    18.32x
    3.68x29.40x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    4.7%
    -23.1%16.7%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    53.0%
    -14.0%37.7%
    Exceptional
  • EPS Growth YoY
    33.1%
    -121.8%181.8%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    8.9%
    -4.2%9.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.06x
    1.55x12.39x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    3.8%
    0.6%15.6%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    85.9%
    31.2%370.0%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-07 data

Company Overview

CareTrust REIT is a real estate investment company in the healthcare sector, and its business revolves around three growth drivers: skilled nursing facilities and senior housing under triple-net leases in the United States, care homes in the United Kingdom, and the SHOP portfolio, in which the company assumes responsibility for the properties’ operating performance in partnership with operators. It also provides real estate loans to skilled nursing operators, typically alongside acquisitions or as a precursor to subsequent real estate transactions, while long-term leases support revenue with annual inflation-linked escalators of 2.5% under the fiscal year 2026 guidance assumptions.

In Q2 fiscal year 2026, CareTrust REIT reported revenue of $161.3 million and net income of $89.0 million, equivalent to a calculated net income margin of approximately 55.2% and earnings per share of $0.38. Revenue increased sequentially from $142.8 million in Q1 fiscal year 2026, while net income rose from $80.2 million; figures for the twelve months ended in 2026 were revenue of $571.4 million, net income of $355.4 million, and earnings per share of approximately $1.52.

Adjusted metrics showed stronger growth in Q2 fiscal year 2026, with adjusted FFO rising 44% year over year to $119.7 million and adjusted FAD increasing 43% to $118.5 million. Both adjusted FFO and FAD were $0.51 per share, up approximately 19%, while fiscal year 2026 investments of approximately $1.5 billion were allocated across $735 million in skilled nursing and senior housing under triple-net leases in the United States, $397 million in British care homes, $240 million in loans, and $81 million in SHOP. This is an allocation of invested capital, not a breakdown of segment revenue.

What's Driving the Stock

  • CareTrust REIT closed approximately $900 million of investments during Q2 fiscal year 2026 at a blended stabilized yield of 8.9%, its largest investment quarter in history excluding mergers and acquisitions, then added approximately $308 million after June 30, 2026, at a blended yield of approximately 7.8%.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Total fiscal year 2026 investments through August 7, 2026, were approximately $1.5 billion, and post-quarter-end activity included a portfolio of 16 care homes in the United Kingdom leased under a net lease to a new operator, along with the addition of two communities valued at $65 million to the SHOP platform.
  • Management raised fiscal year 2026 guidance to a range of $2.03–$2.06 per share for adjusted FFO and $2.01–$2.04 for adjusted FAD; the midpoints represent growth of 16.2% and 15.1%, respectively, compared with fiscal year 2025 results.
  • The identified investment pipeline totals approximately $540 million, with roughly two-thirds in skilled nursing and the remaining third in strategic partner loans and British care homes. This figure excludes SHOP portfolios or large portfolios still under review, so the pace of closings may vary depending on pricing and investment discipline.
  • Liquidity of approximately $1.4 billion provides substantial funding capacity, including approximately $90 million in cash, $605 million available under a $1.2 billion revolving credit facility, and $671.4 million from unsettled forward equity sale agreements. Net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA was 1.0 times, with fixed-charge coverage of 9.9 times and no scheduled debt maturities before 2028.
  • The company aims to increase the margins of the two communities added to SHOP from the low thirties to the high thirties over two to three years, supported by opportunities to raise rates, reduce operating expenses, and potentially expand one of the facilities. Management expects a low-teens internal rate of return from this transaction.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Operating growth in Q2 fiscal year 2026 combines an approximately 19% increase in adjusted FFO per share with higher full-year guidance, indicating that closed investments have begun supporting results even after accounting for an increase in diluted weighted-average shares to 233 million shares under the guidance.
    • +Low leverage, at 1.0 times net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA, together with approximately $1.4 billion of liquidity and no debt maturities before 2028, provides flexibility to fund a $540 million transaction pipeline without relying on a single financing instrument.
    • +The three drivers provide diversity in capital deployment opportunities; fiscal year 2026 investments were spread across U.S. triple-net leased properties, British care homes, loans, and SHOP, rather than relying on a single acquisition channel.
    • +Metrics for CareTrust operators, after they had managed the buildings for at least four years, outperformed industry averages in overall ratings, health inspections, quality measures, successful discharges, and readmission rates, while rent coverage reached a record level according to management.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The exceptional pace of investment increases execution, integration, and capital allocation risks; the company closed approximately $1.5 billion of investments in fiscal year 2026 through August 7, 2026, following two record years, while the blended yield on transactions closed after June 30 declined to approximately 7.8% from 8.9% in Q2 fiscal year 2026.
    • −Concentration risk involving certain tenants or operators could increase because management stated that it is comfortable with higher concentration with a high-quality operator, even though it expects diversification to improve over time. This approach makes the performance of properties associated with any large operator more consequential to rent collection and asset values.
    • −The SHOP platform faces stronger competition and pressure on acquisition yields; management described capitalization rates as declining as more private capital enters the market and noted that some stabilized portfolios with occupancy in the mid-nineties were priced at capitalization rates in the mid-5% range or lower. Consequently, the announced $540 million transaction pipeline does not include any SHOP transaction, while CareTrust is losing some bidding contests to other buyers on price.
    • −Growth funding depends materially on equity issuance, creating shareholder dilution risk if investments do not generate sufficient returns; the company sold 14.4 million shares under forward agreements for $580.5 million in Q2 fiscal year 2026, followed by an additional 2.2 million shares for $90.6 million, with 16.6 million shares remaining unsettled under forward agreements.
    • −Fiscal year 2026 guidance assumes loan repayments of $147 million, of which approximately $104 million had been received through August 7, 2026, and management also believes some tenants are likely to exercise asset purchase options. The removal of these income-producing assets or loans could pressure growth unless the proceeds are redeployed efficiently and promptly.
    • −

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $44.5, within a relatively narrow range of $43 to $47, and the stock carries a consensus “Buy” rating. The average target is slightly above the 52-week range high of $43.62, while the highest target exceeds that high and the lowest target sits slightly below it; a price-to-earnings ratio is not available in the provided data for evaluating the stock on that basis. This consensus reflects expectations of continued FFO growth, but pressure on SHOP yields, large equity issuances, and execution risks associated with fiscal year 2026 investments remain factors that could limit the achievement of analyst targets.

    BuyAnalyst target: $44.5(+15.2%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is driving CareTrust REIT’s growth in fiscal year 2026?

    The company closed approximately $1.5 billion of investments in fiscal year 2026 through August 7, 2026, including approximately $900 million in Q2 fiscal year 2026 at a blended stabilized yield of 8.9%. The amount was allocated across approximately $735 million in skilled nursing and senior housing in the United States, $397 million in British care homes, $240 million in loans, and $81 million in SHOP. The announced transaction pipeline also totals approximately $540 million, excluding large portfolios still under review. This activity was reflected in the increase in fiscal year 2026 adjusted FFO per-share guidance to $2.03–$2.06.

    How were the Q2 fiscal year 2026 results?

    Revenue was $161.3 million, net income was $89.0 million, and earnings per share were $0.38 in Q2 fiscal year 2026. This equates to a calculated net income margin of approximately 55.2%, while the provided data did not include a gross profit figure. Adjusted FFO increased 44% year over year to $119.7 million, and adjusted FAD rose 43% to $118.5 million. On a per-share basis, both were $0.51, up approximately 19% from the comparable quarter.

    What is the difference between CareTrust’s triple-net lease business and its SHOP platform?

    Under triple-net leases, CareTrust leases skilled nursing and senior housing properties to operators under long-term agreements, and the fiscal year 2026 guidance includes inflation-linked rent escalators of 2.5%. In SHOP, however, the company assumes responsibility for the property’s operating performance in partnership with a manager or operator, giving it greater direct exposure to growth in rates, expenses, and occupancy. The company added two communities valued at $65 million to SHOP after June 30, 2026. It aims to increase the margins of these two assets from the low thirties to the high thirties over two to three years.

    How does CareTrust REIT fund its large acquisitions?

    The company’s liquidity was approximately $1.4 billion on August 7, 2026, including approximately $90 million in cash, $605 million available under the revolving credit facility, and $671.4 million from unsettled forward equity agreements. It also had approximately $785.8 million of available capacity under its at-the-market program. In Q2 fiscal year 2026, it received $364 million from settling existing forward agreements and sold 14.4 million forward shares for $580.5 million, then sold an additional 2.2 million shares after quarter-end for $90.6 million. The net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA ratio of 1.0 times reduces borrowing pressure, but the intensity of equity issuance increases dilution risk.

    Why is CareTrust growing more cautiously in SHOP?

    Management explained on August 7, 2026, that competition for SHOP assets is intense and that the entry of private-sector investors is putting pressure on capitalization rates. Some stabilized portfolios with occupancy in the mid-nineties were priced at capitalization rates in the mid-5% range or lower, compared with skilled nursing opportunities offering yields in the 9% range or high-8% range. Therefore, the announced $540 million transaction pipeline does not include any SHOP investments, despite the review of one or two large portfolios outside the announced pipeline. Management says it would rather lose a transaction on price than exceed its targeted internal rate of return or risk-adjusted return.

    What are the main risks associated with the fiscal year 2026 guidance?

    The guidance assumes no new investments, loans, or dispositions after the activity recorded through August 7, 2026, and no additional debt or equity issuance after that date. It also assumes loan repayments of $147 million during fiscal year 2026, of which the company had received approximately $104 million, and no material change in the British pound exchange rate against the U.S. dollar. The guidance was also based on a diluted weighted average of 233 million shares, making the timing of forward equity settlements and capital redeployment consequential to the per-share result. The exercise of asset purchase options by tenants or delays in licensing United Kingdom transactions could affect the timing of income and reinvestment of proceeds.

    Some United Kingdom transactions are subject to licensing timing risk; management explained that loan-to-own structures may take six to twelve months before converting to real estate ownership after a license is obtained. This could delay completion of the real estate structure and the expected return from the transaction, although management presented a previous example in which the conversion was completed after the license was issued.