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Custom Truck One Source, Inc.
CTOS

CTOS Custom Truck One Source, Inc.

Custom Truck One Source, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
9.11
▲ ⁦+0.77%⁩ (+0.07)
Market Cap$2.1B
Beta1.37
52w Low52w High
5.1812.23
Last Week
⁦+2.71%⁩
Last Month
⁦-12.57%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-6.85%⁩
Last Year
⁦+51.58%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall12
Poor — bottom quartile of the marketMomentum TrapF 5/9DistressBetter than 12% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
34
91.1x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
61
7.0%7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
24
6.7%▲4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
28
4.0x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
14
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
77
86.2%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
68
4▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$9.11
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$13
⁦+43%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$12–$14⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$13.00
⁦+42.7%⁩
Current Price $9.11·Median $13.00
Low
$12.00
High
$14.00
Current price
$9.11
Average target
$13.00
Street summary

Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) Price Target Analysis

Bullish tilt

The stock has seen an improvement in analyst sentiment over the past thirty days, with the average price target rising by 5.43% to reach 13, representing a clear price premium compared to the current price of 9.77. This positive trend is reinforced by major institutions such as Cantor Fitzgerald and Oppenheimer maintaining their positive ratings (Overweight and Outperform) in their August 2026 updates, indicating continued confidence in the company's performance despite the limited number of analysts who have set precise price targets.

As of 2026-08-24
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+2.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.83
Buy
Analyst coverage
6
Buy conviction
83%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
22%
Analyst ratings over time6 analysts rating
5
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.43 → 3.83
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-17
    Cantor Fitzgerald
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-08-05
    Oppenheimer
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-05-26
    Cantor Fitzgerald
    Overweight· $13.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    91.10x
    5.69x45.54x
    Very expensive
  • Forward P/E
    52.00x
    4.57x36.58x
    Very expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    8.81x
    3.43x27.47x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    -10.9%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Near median
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    7.0%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    158.8%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    22.2%
    8.6%54.6%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    6.7%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    4.03x
    0.55x4.37x
    Above average
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.04
    -5.667.97
    Near median
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-06 data

Company Overview

Custom Truck One Source provides specialized trucks and equipment serving critical infrastructure projects in the United States and Canada. Its operations are divided into two segments: Specialty Equipment Rentals, which generates revenue from equipment rentals and fleet equipment sales, and Specialty Truck Equipment and Manufacturing, which sells and upfits specialized trucks for external customers and the company's internal rental segment. A significant portion of demand is tied to electricity transmission and distribution markets, with additional contributions from infrastructure and vocational equipment.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, the company reported record revenue of $563.4 million and gross profit of $124.0 million, representing a gross margin of approximately 22.0%. Net income was $10.4 million and earnings per share were $0.05, compared with a net loss of $28 million a year earlier, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization rose 25% year over year to $117 million. Management explained that approximately $19 million of the year-over-year improvement in net income came from a favorable tax shift, while the remainder resulted from higher operating income.

External customer revenue in Specialty Equipment Rentals reached approximately $219 million, up 20% year over year, while its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 26% to $117 million at a 53% margin. Specialty Truck Equipment and Manufacturing reported record external revenue of $345 million, up 5%, and adjusted earnings of $37 million at an 8.5% margin. For the trailing twelve months ended during fiscal 2026, revenue was $2.4 billion, gross profit was $450.9 million, and net income was $21.4 million, after fiscal 2025 recorded a net loss of $31.1 million.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Management raised its fiscal 2026 outlook to revenue between $2.1 billion and $2.2 billion, representing year-over-year growth between 8% and 13%, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization between $437.5 million and $455 million, representing growth between 14% and 19%.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Average fleet utilization in Specialty Equipment Rentals reached 81.6% in Q2 fiscal 2026, up 400 basis points year over year, while the average original equipment cost of the rental fleet increased 13% to $1.37 billion. The company ended the quarter with a fleet carrying an original cost of approximately $1.68 billion, the highest quarterly level in its history.
  • Demand for electricity transmission and distribution equipment supports an extended growth cycle, based on customer planning for projects beginning in 2027 and extending into 2028. External Specialty Equipment Rentals revenue increased 20% year over year, while rental equipment yield remained stable at 39.4% following price increases of approximately 5% in late 2025 and early 2026.
  • Specialty Truck Equipment and Manufacturing achieved record quarterly equipment sales, while quoting activity in June 2026 rose 26% year over year. After ending Q2 fiscal 2026 with a backlog of $322 million, the backlog exceeded $340 million during Q3 fiscal 2026 as order growth continued.
  • The company is targeting more than $50 million of free cash flow after debt service in fiscal 2026, benefiting from a reduction in net rental fleet capital expenditures to a range of $170–200 million, compared with more than $250 million in fiscal 2025, and from reducing inventory and related financing balances during the second half.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Q2 fiscal 2026 performance combined 10% revenue growth with 25% growth in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, indicating improving operating leverage as rental fleet utilization and demand for electricity transmission equipment increased.
    • +The young rental fleet, with an average age of slightly more than three years, provides a foundation for supporting growth while reducing maintenance spending; the rental business maintained a gross margin in the mid-70% range and an adjusted earnings margin of 53% during the quarter.
    • +Demand indicators support management's fiscal 2026 outlook, as fleet utilization reached 81.6%, the original cost of rental equipment increased 13%, and the Specialty Truck Equipment and Manufacturing backlog exceeded $340 million during Q3 fiscal 2026.
    • +The trailing twelve-month net result during fiscal 2026 turned to a profit of $21.4 million after a loss of $31.1 million in fiscal 2025, alongside a year-over-year improvement in net leverage of more than 0.8 times to 3.85 times.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The debt burden remains high; net debt reached $1.66 billion at the end of Q2 fiscal 2026, equal to 3.85 times trailing twelve-month adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Continued deleveraging depends on executing the plan to generate more than $50 million of free cash flow after debt service and reducing working capital.
    • −The Specialty Truck Equipment and Manufacturing backlog declined by $89 million sequentially to $322 million at the end of Q2 fiscal 2026, equivalent to approximately 3.5 months and below the targeted range of 4–6 months. Although it exceeded $340 million during Q3, the decline illustrates the dependence of results on the timing of orders and deliveries.
    • −Q2 fiscal 2026 results included the pull-forward of tens of millions of dollars in new and used equipment sales and rental equipment purchases from the second half. Management therefore expects Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue and earnings to be below Q2 levels, with year-over-year growth in the high-single-digit range, and expects growth rates in utilization and rental equipment to slow when compared with the increase recorded in the second half of fiscal 2025.
    • −The adjusted Specialty Truck Equipment and Manufacturing margin was 8.5%, while its gross margins declined slightly because of higher sales to lower-margin national accounts. Management indicated that the margin on new sales is at the low end of its targeted 15%–18% range, making customer and product mix an important factor in achieving any subsequent margin expansion.
    • −The infrastructure market has not experienced growth comparable to the strength in electricity transmission and distribution, and as of August 6, 2026, management had not seen a tangible impact from federal funds on orders. This leaves current growth more dependent on demand for electricity transmission equipment, while the timing of business benefits from the IIJA, IRA, and CHIPS programs remains uncertain.
    • −The 2027 nitrogen oxide emissions standards create cost and inventory risks; management estimated noncompliance penalties of between $4,500 and $7,000 per engine, depending on specifications. The company has purchased vehicle chassis in advance, while the L9 engine is affected by the transition to the X10 from Cummins, which was expected to enter full production later in Q3 2027, potentially increasing customer costs and pressuring working capital.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $13, within a range of $12 to $14, with a consensus Buy rating; the average is approximately 6% above the upper end of the 52-week range of $12.23, while the lower end of the range is $5.18. No reported price-to-earnings ratio is available, limiting the precision of traditional comparisons, despite trailing twelve-month net income during fiscal 2026 turning positive at $21.4 million and earnings per share reaching approximately $0.09. The wide 52-week range reflects a combination of improving earnings and strong electricity transmission demand on the one hand, and the loss recorded in fiscal 2025, leverage of 3.85 times, and order timing risks on the other.

    BuyAnalyst target: $13(+42.7%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is driving CTOS's growth in fiscal 2026?

    The primary driver is demand for electricity transmission and distribution equipment, which raised average Specialty Equipment Rentals fleet utilization to 81.6% in Q2 fiscal 2026. The average original cost of rental equipment increased 13% year over year to $1.37 billion, while the fleet's original cost at quarter-end was approximately $1.68 billion. Based on these conditions, management raised its fiscal 2026 revenue outlook to $2.1–2.2 billion and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization outlook to $437.5–455 million.

    How important is the Specialty Equipment Rentals segment to Custom Truck One Source's earnings?

    The segment generated external revenue of $219 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, up 20% year over year. Its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $117 million, up 26%, with a margin of 53%. Rental equipment yield was also 39.4%, and the rental business maintained a gross margin in the mid-70% range.

    Does the decline in CTOS's backlog signal weakness?

    The Specialty Truck Equipment and Manufacturing backlog declined from the end of Q1 to $322 million at the end of Q2 fiscal 2026, a decrease of $89 million resulting from record deliveries. This represented approximately 3.5 months of sales, below management's target of 4–6 months. However, quoting activity in June 2026 increased 26% year over year, and the backlog subsequently exceeded $340 million during Q3 fiscal 2026, providing countervailing evidence that order flow remains strong.

    What is the status of CTOS's debt and cash flows?

    Net debt was $1.66 billion at the end of Q2 fiscal 2026, and net leverage was 3.85 times, after improving by more than 0.8 times year over year. Management is targeting more than $50 million of free cash flow after debt service in fiscal 2026, with leverage declining to a level clearly below four times by the end of fiscal 2026 and then progressing toward three times in 2027. Free cash flow after debt service also improved by approximately $40 million year over year during the first half, and the company plans to reduce inventory and related financing balances during the second half.

    How do the 2027 emissions rules affect Custom Truck One Source?

    The changes proposed in July 2026 retained the 2027 nitrogen oxide standards and added noncompliance penalties, which management estimated at between $4,500 and $7,000 depending on engine specifications. The company responded by purchasing vehicle chassis in advance and holding more inventory in preparation for 2027, benefiting from its relationships with chassis suppliers. The operational risk is also tied to the transition from the L9 engine to the X10 from Cummins, which was expected to reach full production later in Q3 2027.

    Why did CTOS's profitability improve in Q2 fiscal 2026?

    Revenue increased 10% year over year to $563.4 million, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization rose 25% to $117 million. The company turned to a net profit of $10.4 million and earnings per share of $0.05, compared with a net loss of $28 million a year earlier. Management explained that approximately $19 million of the year-over-year improvement came from a favorable tax shift, while the remainder came from higher operating income supported by strong rental activity and equipment sales.