CSTM Constellium SE

Constellium SE · NYSE

Market Closed

26.17

▲ ⁦+0.69%⁩ (+0.18)

Market Cap$3.5B

Beta1.57

52w Low52w High

13.5836.99

Last Week

⁦-1.62%⁩

Last Month

⁦-11.11%⁩

Last 3 Months

⁦-23.61%⁩

Last Year

⁦+79.25%⁩

EL7 Factor Analysis

How we score this

Overall97

Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 8/9Better than 97% of Market stocks, per EL7's model

Factor	Score	Value	Avg	Rank
Valuation	94	6.7x	17.8x	Top tier
Growth	88	38.4%	7.1%	Top tier
Quality	55	13.4%	4.5%	Around median
Safety	58	1.7x	2.6x	Around median
Capital Return	88	—	2.12%	Top tier
Momentum	61	96.5%	2.9%	Around median
Sentiment	87	3	3	Top tier

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target

$35.75

⁦+36.6%⁩

Current Price $26.17·Median $36.00

Low

$32.00

High

$39.00

Current price

$26.17

Average target

$35.75

Street summary

Price Forecast Analysis for Constellium SE (CSTM)

The price forecast analysis for Constellium stock shows a state of complete stability in analysts' estimates over the (1, 7, 30 days) periods, as the average target price settled at 36.25 dollars. This stability reflects the absence of any recent revisions, with a price gap (Dispersion) between the minimum of 32 dollars and the maximum of 40 dollars, indicating a limited variance in the fair value estimation of the stock compared to its current price of 33.24 dollars.

As of 2026-05-22

Revisions momentum · 30d

⁦0.0%⁩

Average rating

★ 3.80

Buy

Analyst coverage

Buy conviction

80%

High

Target dispersion

27%

Analyst ratings over time5 analysts rating

Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell

Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 3.80

Recent analyst moves

= Reiterate2026-05-05
UBS
Buy· $38.00
= Reiterate2026-04-30
Deutsche Bank
Buy· $40.00
= Reiterate2026-04-15
Wells Fargo
Overweight· $35.00

Premium content

Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range

MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict

P/E (TTM)
6.66x
4.94x39.51x
Very cheap
Forward P/E
10.58x
3.70x29.59x
Cheap
EV / EBITDA
5.10x
2.62x20.92x
Very cheap
FCF Yield
10.0%
-21.3%8.9%
Exceptional
Revenue Growth YoY
38.4%
-21.2%90.4%
Above average
EPS Growth YoY
1239.0%
-249.5%198.4%
Exceptional
Gross Margin
13.1%
7.6%58.9%
Below average
ROIC
13.4%
-52.6%20.2%
Strong
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.65x
0.22x3.72x
Low debt
Dividend Yield
—
—
Payout Ratio
—
—
Altman Z-Score
—
—

Financial Analysis

Stock Analysis

AI-generated

Based on 2026-07-29 data

Company Overview

Constellium SE produces value-added aluminum solutions for the aerospace, defense, packaging, automotive, and specialized industrial application markets. The company operates through the A&T, P&ARP, and AS&I segments and benefits from contractual pricing, product mix, scrap recycling, and productivity improvements, while its metal cost pass-through model limits its direct exposure to fluctuations in primary aluminum prices. The aerospace, packaging, and automotive markets together accounted for more than 80% of revenue for the twelve months ended in Q2 FY2026.

In Q2 FY2026, shipments reached 381 thousand metric tons and revenue rose 31% year over year to $2.7 billion, driven by higher revenue per metric ton, including the impact of metal prices. Net income was $148 million, compared with $36 million in the comparable quarter, equivalent to an approximate net income margin of 5.5%. Adjusted EBITDA increased by more than 200% to $439 million, but included a $129 million non-cash accounting impact from the metal price lag; excluding it, the company posted a record $310 million, up 88% from $165 million a year earlier.

Improvement occurred across all operating segments in Q2 FY2026. A&T recorded adjusted EBITDA of $135 million, up 61%, P&ARP posted a record $165 million, up 123%, while AS&I generated approximately $26 million, up 44%. The business generated free cash flow of €90 million, while net debt declined to €1.8 billion and leverage fell to 1.8 times at quarter-end.

What's Driving the Stock

On July 29, 2026, Constellium raised its FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance, excluding the metal price lag impact, to a range of €980 million to €1.02 billion, and raised its free cash flow target to more than €300 million; it therefore expects to achieve its 2028 targets two years ahead of schedule.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

+The bullish case depends on expanding operating profitability across all three segments; A&T and P&ARP each posted record quarterly results in Q2 FY2026, while adjusted operating earnings increased for every segment compared with the same period of the previous year.
+The aerospace recovery provides a growth driver extending beyond FY2026; its shipments rose 14%, the Airware facility in Issoire entered the customer qualification phase, and investments in Issoire, Muscle Shoals, and Ravenswood target lower metal costs and support production capacity, with a stated internal rate of return exceeding 15% for each project.
+Cash generation and deleveraging enhance capital allocation flexibility; free cash flow reached €90 million in Q2 FY2026, net debt declined by €64 million from year-end 2025, liquidity exceeded €1 billion, and leverage stood at 1.8 times.
+FY2026 guidance combines adjusted EBITDA of €980 million to €1.02 billion with free cash flow exceeding €300 million, supporting the simultaneous funding of debt reduction and share repurchases if the demand trends and economic environment assumed by management persist.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

−More than 80% of revenue for the twelve months ended in Q2 FY2026 is concentrated in three end markets—aerospace, packaging, and automotive—so any simultaneous decline in aircraft or automotive production or packaging demand could materially affect shipments and capacity utilization.
−Adjusted EBITDA of $439 million in Q2 FY2026 included a $129 million non-cash metal price lag impact, and management expects metal cost and recycling benefits to moderate during the second half; this makes the reported profitability level harder to replicate than the adjusted economic level of $310 million.
−A shortage of automotive sheet at another North American supplier was a temporary benefit that increased Constellium's automotive shipments by 15% in Q2 FY2026, but management expects this benefit to begin fading in Q3 FY2026 and for supply normalization to continue through the end of 2026. Summer and December seasonality and planned maintenance also increase the likelihood that second-half performance will be weaker than the first half.
−Automotive demand in Europe remained weak, particularly in the premium vehicle categories to which Constellium has greater exposure, while European manufacturers face stronger Chinese competition in electric vehicles and in the Chinese market. Management also lowered its view of the long-term growth rate for electric and hybrid vehicles compared with its previous expectations.
−Packaging shipments declined 9% year over year in Q2 FY2026 because the company prioritized capacity allocated to more complex automotive products. Although underlying packaging demand was described as healthy, the decline reveals the mix's sensitivity to production capacity allocation and the inability to convert capacity between products on a one-for-one basis.
−Guidance faces risks from volatility in metal prices, scrap spreads, and aluminum premiums, in addition to inflationary pressures on freight, lubricants, and coatings associated with the Middle East conflict. The company sources a small proportion of its slab and billet requirements from the region and views the direct impact as manageable, but acknowledged that the longer-term repercussions are uncertain and difficult to predict.

FAQ

What drove Constellium's results in Q2 FY2026?

Revenue rose 31% to $2.7 billion, and net income reached $148 million versus $36 million in the comparable quarter. Adjusted EBITDA reached $439 million, including a $129 million non-cash metal price lag impact. After excluding that impact, the company achieved a record economic level of $310 million, up 88% year over year.

How important is the aerospace segment to CSTM stock?

Aerospace shipments rose 14% in Q2 FY2026 amid improving demand and higher aircraft production rates. The A&T segment recorded adjusted EBITDA of $135 million, up 61% and at a quarterly record. The third Airware facility in Issoire began operations and customer qualification procedures, and the company aims to ramp up its production during 2027.

Are Constellium's recycling profits sustainable?

Q2 FY2026 results benefited from favorable scrap spreads and higher recycling productivity in North America and Europe. Scrap requirements for Q3 FY2026 were largely locked in, and a significant portion of Q4 requirements was also locked in on terms management described as favorable. However, management expects the year-over-year increase in these benefits to moderate during the second half and did not provide a quantitative estimate of their impact in FY2027.

What do Constellium's balance sheet and capital allocation look like?

Net debt stood at €1.8 billion at the end of Q2 FY2026, down €64 million from year-end 2025, while liquidity reached more than €1 billion. Leverage declined to 1.8 times, within the target range of 1.5 to 2.5 times. The company also partially redeemed €100 million of notes due in June 2028, leaving €225 million of their principal outstanding.

What are the main risks that could prevent Constellium from achieving its FY2026 guidance?

The guidance assumes continued demand trends and a relatively stable economic environment, with adjusted EBITDA between €980 million and €1.02 billion and free cash flow exceeding €300 million. Risks include diminishing scrap spread benefits, the fading impact of the North American automotive sheet shortage, and weakness in the European automotive market. These are compounded by volatility in metal prices and premiums and cost pressures on freight, lubricants, and coatings associated with the Middle East conflict.

Company Profile