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Stocks
Camden Property Trust
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall29
Weak — below market medianSucker StockF 7/9Better than 29% of Market stocks, per EL7's modelUnsustainable dividend (payout > 100%)
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
24
34.1x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
40
0.5%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
28
3.0%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
37
4.9x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
62
4.10%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
48
2.8%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
76
7▲3Top tier
CPT

CPT Camden Property Trust

Camden Property Trust · NYSE
Market Closed
103.01
▲ ⁦+0.50%⁩ (+0.51)
Market Cap$10.3B
Beta0.79
52w Low52w High
96.53117.56
Last Week
⁦-2.78%⁩
Last Month
⁦-6.98%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-4.39%⁩
Last Year
⁦-5.88%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$103
Analyst target · 6 analysts
$114
⁦+11%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$102–$123⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$-16.92
⁦-116%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$-16.92–$114⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target
$114.25
⁦+10.9%⁩
Current Price $103.01·Median $114.00
Low
$102.00
High
$123.25
Current price
$103.01
Average target
$114.25
Street summary

Analysis of Camden Property Trust (CPT) Price Revisions

Camden Property Trust stock saw a slight increase in the average price target of 1.4% over the past thirty days to reach $113.73, a change primarily driven by an increase in the number of analysts participating in the estimates from 3 to 6 analysts. However, the stock is currently trading at $116.37, a level that exceeds the Consensus and Median price, suggesting that the market price has outpaced current technical analyst valuations.

As of 2026-07-29
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.2%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.21
Hold
Analyst coverage
24
Buy conviction
29%
Target dispersion
21%
Analyst ratings over time24 analysts rating
1
6
15
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.33 → 3.21
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-22
    Wells Fargo
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-21
    Piper Sandler
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-07-20
    Deutsche Bank
    Hold
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    34.11x
    5.03x40.26x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    94.84x
    5.89x47.13x
    Very expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    14.33x
    3.68x29.40x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    2.2%
    -23.1%16.7%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    0.5%
    -14.0%37.7%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    111.2%
    -121.8%181.8%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    25.0%
    -5.0%81.8%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    3.0%
    -4.2%9.5%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    4.89x
    1.55x12.39x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    4.1%
    0.6%15.6%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    138.9%
    31.2%370.0%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-31 data

Company Overview

Camden Property Trust is a real estate investment trust listed under the ticker CPT on the NYSE. It owns and operates multifamily residential communities and generates its income primarily from rents, occupancy, lease renewals, and other property-related revenue. After selling 11 operating communities in California for $1.625 billion on July 29, 2026, its portfolio became more concentrated in 13 existing markets, particularly Sunbelt markets, with the proceeds reinvested in newer communities within its existing markets and in share repurchases.

In Q2 FY2026, Camden reported revenue of $392.9 million, net income of $18.8 million, and earnings per share of $0.18, while core FFO reached $1.68 per share, exceeding the midpoint of the company's guidance by one cent. Average occupancy was 95.7%, compared with 95.1% in Q1 FY2026, and effective new leases declined by 3.3%, while renewals increased by 2.8%, resulting in blended lease growth of negative 0.2%.

The portfolio mix reflects a clear shift from California assets with an average age of 19 years to seven completed community acquisitions in Atlanta, Orlando, Nashville, Dallas, Phoenix, Tampa, and Charlotte with an average age of five years, in addition to land sites in suburban Raleigh and Tampa. Management says this rebalancing is FFO-neutral in the first year and likely to become accretive thereafter, with an expected 5% reduction in recurring capital expenditures per unit and a 10-basis-point improvement in bad debt following the exit from California.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The company reaffirmed the midpoint of its core FFO guidance for FY2026 at $6.75 per share and set the midpoint of its Q3 FY2026 guidance at $1.69 per share, one cent higher than $1.68 in Q2 FY2026.
  • Effective blended lease growth improved from negative 1.6% in Q1 FY2026 to negative 0.2% in Q2 FY2026, then turned positive in June and July 2026; management expects blended growth of approximately 1% or slightly more in each of Q3 and Q4 FY2026.
  • Occupancy increased from 95.1% in Q1 FY2026 to an average of 95.7% in Q2, then reached 95.8% in July 2026, while signed renewal increases rose from March levels to more than 4% in July, and August and September offers were sent with an average increase of 4.2%.
  • Camden executed the majority of its California capital reallocation: it repurchased $694 million of shares at a 6.4% FFO yield, closed $645 million of acquisitions, and secured the right to acquire two properties and a land site with a total value of $195 million, with approximately $200 million of 1031 investments still to be identified.
  • The company used approximately $900 million to fully repay the balances on its credit facility and commercial paper program, reducing pro forma net debt to EBITDA to 4.5 times at the end of July 2026, and it also entered into a $350 million one-year unsecured term loan to enhance liquidity.
  • The percentage of communities with positive signed new leases reached approximately 50% in July 2026, compared with 20% in March, and the percentage of communities with positive signed blended leases increased from 55% during Q2 FY2026 to 75% in July, providing operational support for the outlook for the second half of FY2026.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case5 pts

  • +Improving occupancy and renewals give Camden greater pricing power; occupancy reached 95.8% in July 2026, signed renewal increases exceeded 4%, and blended lease growth turned positive in June and July.
  • +Cost control improved more than expected, as the company lowered its estimate for same-property expense growth in FY2026 to 2.5% from 3% and reduced the expected decline in same-property NOI from 0.9% to 0.6%.
  • +The California transaction replaced a portfolio with an average age of 19 years with acquired assets averaging five years of age, with recurring capital expenditures per unit expected to decline by 5% and regulatory and advocacy expenses that reduced the California portfolio's NOI by approximately 80 basis points annually eliminated.
  • +The repayment of approximately $900 million of debt strengthened balance-sheet flexibility, and pro forma net debt to EBITDA reached 4.5 times at the end of July 2026, supporting the funding of acquisitions, development, and capital reallocation.
  • +The Austin market absorbed more than 11,000 units during the twelve months ended July 2026, and Camden's occupancy there improved from 94.7% in Q2 FY2025 to 96.1% in Q2 FY2026 and then to 96.6% in July, illustrating that supply pressure is beginning to ease in one of its most challenging markets.

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $114.10, with a wide range from $102 to $123.25 and a Neutral consensus, while the average target is below the 52-week range high of $119.81 and above its low of $96.53. No reliable displayed P/E ratio is available, so the valuation is based more heavily on guided core FFO of $6.75 per share for FY2026 and on the company's ability to convert improving occupancy and easing supply into sustainable positive NOI growth. Management's estimate of a consensus net asset value near $130 per share as of July 31, 2026 supports potential revaluation, but the Neutral consensus and wide target range reflect the risks of continued rental weakness and a delayed impact from the acquisitions.

HoldAnalyst target: $114.1(+10.8%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What changed in Camden's portfolio after the sale of the California assets?

On July 29, 2026, Camden completed the sale of 11 operating communities in California for $1.625 billion before transaction costs of approximately $15 million. The sold portfolio had an average age of 19 years, while the communities acquired during 2026 had an average age of five years. The company closed $645 million of acquisitions in Atlanta, Orlando, Nashville, Dallas, Phoenix, Tampa, and Charlotte, in addition to two land sites valued at $45 million. Management expects the reallocation to be FFO-neutral in the first year and then accretive as the newer assets grow at a faster pace.

Did Camden's rents begin to recover in Q2 FY2026?

Effective new leases improved from a decline of 5.5% in Q1 FY2026 to a decline of 3.3% in Q2. Blended lease growth increased from negative 1.6% to negative 0.2%, then turned positive in June and July 2026. In July, approximately 50% of communities recorded positive signed new leases, compared with 20% in March, and the percentage of communities with positive signed blended leases reached 75%. However, management clarified that new leases would not remain flat or positive throughout Q3 FY2026 because of daily volatility and seasonality.

What is Camden's earnings and operating guidance for FY2026?
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Excess residential supply continues to pressure pricing in markets such as Austin and Nashville; in Austin, signed new leases remained down 3% in July 2026 despite a significant improvement from an 11% decline in March, and some acquired assets are offering concessions of more than one and a half months.
  • −Annual growth indicators remain weak despite sequential improvement, as Camden expects FY2026 same-property revenue growth of no more than 0.5% and an NOI decline of 0.6%, while management also noted that cumulative revenue growth during 2024, 2025, and 2026 was only approximately 2.1%.
  • −The California proceeds reallocation program carries execution risk, as approximately $200 million of 1031 acquisitions remained to be completed by late Q4 FY2026, while the timing of real estate transactions offset most of the $0.03-per-share benefit from improved NOI within the full-year guidance.
  • −The new acquisitions carry risks from persistent concessions and weak rent growth; the first-year yield on the seven communities is in the high 4% range, and the company does not assume meaningful effective rent growth before 2027 and 2028, while reaching a yield in the mid-5% range depends on eliminating concessions within one year to one and a half years.
  • −The $350 million unsecured loan matures after one year, and the company is considering issuing a long-term bond to refinance the November maturity if market conditions are favorable, leaving refinancing costs and terms exposed to debt markets.
  • −The analyst consensus on CPT is Neutral, with targets ranging from $102 to $123.25, a divergence that reflects uncertainty about the pace of the rental recovery and the success of the asset reallocation; net insider selling also reached $3.4 million during the three months ended with the latest transaction on June 5, 2026, while acknowledging that insider sales may be prearranged and do not alone represent a strong signal.

Camden reaffirmed the midpoint of its core FFO guidance for FY2026 at $6.75 per share. It set the midpoint of its Q3 FY2026 guidance at $1.69 per share, compared with $1.68 in Q2. Excluding California, the company expects same-property revenue growth of 0.5%, expense growth of 2.5%, and an NOI decline of 0.6%. The NOI estimate represents a 30-basis-point improvement from the originally expected decline of 0.9%, driven primarily by lower utility expenses and improved insurance pricing.

How did Camden use the proceeds from the California sale?

Camden allocated $1 billion of the proceeds to tax-efficient 1031 exchange transactions, closed $645 million of acquisitions, and secured the right to acquire additional properties and land valued at $195 million. It also used approximately $900 million to fully repay the balances on its credit facility and commercial paper program, reducing pro forma net debt to EBITDA to 4.5 times at the end of July 2026. The company had repurchased $694 million of shares during the second half of 2025 and the first half of 2026 at a 6.4% FFO yield. Approximately $200 million remained allocated to 1031 acquisitions expected by late Q4 FY2026, in addition to $330 million for general purposes.

What are the main operating risks facing CPT?

New supply remains the primary pressure on pricing, particularly in Austin and Nashville, and signed new leases in Austin remained down 3% in July 2026 despite improving from an 11% decline in March. Camden expects same-property NOI to decline by 0.6% in FY2026, meaning the recovery has not yet translated into positive annual growth. Some acquired communities also offer concessions ranging from zero to more than one and a half months, and the company does not assume meaningful effective rent growth at those properties before 2027 and 2028. Additional risks include executing the remaining 1031 acquisitions and refinancing the $350 million unsecured loan.

Why is Camden focusing on Sunbelt markets?

Management stated that Camden's existing markets lead in population growth, employment growth, and domestic migration, which is why it redirected capital from California to its existing Sunbelt markets. In Q2 FY2026, 16% of new residents came from outside the Sunbelt areas, compared with 15.5% one year earlier and 14% in the earlier period presented by management. The acquisitions completed during 2026 included seven markets: Atlanta, Orlando, Nashville, Dallas, Phoenix, Tampa, and Charlotte. The company does not intend to exit its other existing markets, but said it would slightly reduce its exposure to its two largest markets, D.C. Metro and Houston, for portfolio allocation purposes.