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Stocks
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall45
Weak — below market medianMomentum TrapF 7/9Better than 45% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
30
26.9x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
73
—7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
25
—4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
52
3.3x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
16
0.71%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
75
18.9%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
85
16▲3Top tier
CP

CP Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. · NYSE
Market Closed
89.23
▲ ⁦+0.44%⁩ (+0.39)
Market Cap$78.4B
Beta1.22
52w Low52w High
68.4296.90
Last Week
⁦-0.35%⁩
Last Month
⁦-2.93%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-0.41%⁩
Last Year
⁦+19.40%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$89
Analyst target · 13 analysts
$105
⁦+18%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$99–$140⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 13 analysts setting price target
$110.40
⁦+23.7%⁩
Current Price $89.23·Median $105.00
Low
$99.00
High
$140.00
Current price
$89.23
Average target
$110.40
Street summary

Canadian Pacific (CP) Stock Price Target Analysis

Bullish tilt

Canadian Pacific (CP) stock has seen an improvement in its average price target over the past thirty days, with the consensus rising from 108.4 to 110.4 (+1.85%), coinciding with a notable expansion in analyst coverage from 7 to 13 analysts. This trend reflects technical optimism, as the lowest observed price target (99) exceeds the current stock price (90.51) by a comfortable margin, indicating analyst conviction in a floor of untapped value, despite the wide variance in upper estimates reaching 140.

As of 2026-08-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
30
Buy conviction
77%
High
Target dispersion
46%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time30 analysts rating
9
14
6
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.97 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-03
    Kansas City Capital
    Hold
  • = Reiterate2026-07-30
    RBC Capital
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-30
    Kansas City Capital
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    26.91x
    5.69x45.54x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    18.04x
    3.43x27.47x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    2.0%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    —
    —
  • EPS Growth YoY
    —
    —
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.30x
    0.55x4.37x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    0.7%
    0.1%4.8%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-29 data

Company Overview

Canadian Pacific Kansas City operates a unified rail network connecting Canada, the United States, and Mexico, generating revenue from transporting grain, potash, coal, energy, chemicals and plastics, forest products, metals and consumer goods, and automotive products, in addition to intermodal freight. Its commercial advantage is based on moving shipments across all three countries on a single line, extending the haul distance for which the company retains revenue and enabling services such as Mexico Midwest Express, Southeast Mexico Express, and the CPKC land bridge between Canada and Mexico.

In Q2 FY2026, revenue reached $4.2 billion, up 13%, with volumes growing 4% and net income of $1.0 billion, equivalent to an approximate net income margin of 23.8%. Diluted earnings per share were $1.15, and management reported a stated operating ratio of 54.6% and an adjusted core operating ratio of 61.6%, with the latter 90 basis points higher than in the comparable period, meaning that revenue and earnings growth was accompanied by some pressure on the adjusted margin.

The growth mix was broad but uneven in Q2 FY2026: grain revenue increased 24% with volume growth of 19%, energy, chemicals and plastics increased 8% with volume growth of 6%, metals and consumer goods increased 16% with volume growth of 7%, automotive increased 19% with volume growth of 8%, and intermodal increased 11% despite flat volume. In contrast, coal revenue declined 18% as volume fell 29%, while potash revenue increased 10% despite a 2% decline in volume. On a trailing 12-month basis in the 2026 data, revenue reached $15.5 billion, net income was $3.9 billion, and earnings per share were approximately $4.36, compared with revenue of $15.1 billion and net income of $4.1 billion in FY2025.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Management is targeting mid-single-digit volume growth in FY2026 and double-digit earnings growth, with volumes and revenue expected to accelerate and operating leverage to improve in the second half of FY2026.
  • The land bridge between Canada and Mexico is growing rapidly; its revenue run rate increased from approximately $100 million in 2023 to a trajectory of $600 million by the end of FY2026, and management sees a path to reaching $1 billion in the following years, with approximately 65% of current activity generated between Western Canada and Mexico.
  • Management expects merger synergy revenue to reach approximately $1.4 to $1.5 billion by the end of FY2026, an annual increase of more than $300 million, driven particularly by intermodal, grain, and automotive; MMX also reached approximately 70% of its capacity, and SMX volumes increased by more than 30% compared with Q1 FY2026.
  • Grain delivered the strongest segment contribution in Q2 FY2026, with revenue increasing 24% and volumes growing 19%, including 24% growth in Canadian grain volumes and 14% growth in U.S. grain volumes. Planning for Q4 FY2026 was based on a three- to five-year average crop, while management indicated better conditions in CPKC territories in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan.
  • Operating efficiency supported the capacity to absorb growth; fuel efficiency improved 4%, rail installation productivity increased 18%, and tie installation productivity increased 59%, while the company received all 70 Wabtec locomotives scheduled for FY2026. Adjusted free cash flow also reached $1.3 billion in the first half of FY2026, up 25%, while the annual capital expenditure target remained at $2.65 billion, down 15%.
  • The Canadian electrical workers’ strike that began on May 31, 2026 ended after IBEW agreed to binding arbitration on August 22, 2026, removing the work stoppage involving signal and communications employees and providing a mechanism to resolve outstanding contract matters.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +CPKC’s unique single-line network between Canada, the United States, and Mexico provides a company-specific source of growth; in Q2 FY2026, it achieved volume records in grain, energy, chemicals and plastics, and automotive, with total revenue growth of 13% and volume growth of 4%.
  • +Merger synergy realization remains in an expansion phase, with management expecting $1.4 to $1.5 billion by the end of FY2026, while the targeted increase in land bridge revenue from $600 million to a long-term trajectory of $1 billion provides an additional growth opportunity across grain, automotive, energy, and intermodal.
  • +The company combines earnings growth with improved cash generation; operating cash flow increased 8% and adjusted free cash flow rose 25% in the first half of FY2026, alongside a 15% reduction in the annual capital expenditure plan to $2.65 billion.
  • +There is operating capacity to absorb higher volumes without a corresponding increase in resources; headcount was approximately 500 employees lower while volumes increased 3% to 4% during FY2026, and management said the future increase required would be concentrated in an incremental number of employees.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $110.4, with a wide range of $99 to $140 and a consensus rating of “Buy”; the average is approximately 13.9% above the recorded 52-week range high of $96.9, while the highest target is approximately 44.5% above it. No price-to-earnings ratio is available in the provided data, so consensus optimism should be weighed against pressure on the adjusted operating ratio, coal weakness, and the decline in trailing 12-month net income in the 2026 data to $3.9 billion from $4.1 billion in FY2025 despite higher revenue.

BuyAnalyst target: $110.4(+23.7%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What is the primary driver of CP stock growth in FY2026?

The primary driver is converting CPKC’s single-line network between Canada, the United States, and Mexico into synergy revenue and cross-border shipments. The company is targeting synergy revenue of between $1.4 and $1.5 billion by the end of FY2026, an increase of more than $300 million from the previous year. The land bridge business between Canada and Mexico is also on track for $600 million in FY2026, compared with approximately $100 million in 2023, and management sees a path to reaching $1 billion in the following years.

How did CP perform in Q2 FY2026?

Revenue reached $4.2 billion, up 13%, and volumes grew 4%, while net income reached $1.0 billion. Diluted earnings per share were $1.15 and adjusted core earnings per share were $1.27, according to the results announcement dated July 29, 2026. The company reported a stated operating ratio of 54.6% and an adjusted core operating ratio of 61.6%, with the latter increasing 90 basis points from the comparable period.

Which CPKC segments are growing fastest?

Grain led growth in Q2 FY2026, with revenue increasing 24% and volumes growing 19%, while Canadian grain volumes increased 24% and U.S. grain volumes grew 14%. Automotive revenue increased 19% with volume growth of 8%, while metals and consumer goods revenue rose 16% with volume growth of 7%. Energy, chemicals and plastics revenue also increased 8%, and intermodal revenue grew 11% despite flat volumes.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Coal represents a material drag on growth, with revenue falling 18% and volumes declining 29% in Q2 FY2026 due to ongoing production issues at customer mines, reducing total revenue ton-mile growth by approximately three percentage points; management expects this drag to persist during the second half of FY2026.
  • −The adjusted margin came under clear pressure in Q2 FY2026, as the adjusted core operating ratio increased 90 basis points to 61.6%. Casualty costs and stock-based compensation had a $0.04 impact on earnings per share and a 120-basis-point impact on the operating ratio, while changes in fuel prices created an additional 130-basis-point headwind.
  • −Safety performance deteriorated compared with the prior period in Q2 FY2026, with higher personal injury and train accident rates; the FRA train accident rate was approximately 1.0 and the personal injury rate was 0.96. Higher other expenses were also linked to increased casualty costs, making safety both an operational and financial risk.
  • −Some freight markets remain weak or volatile; refined fuel activity into Mexico had been nearly halted during the six to eight months preceding the July 29, 2026 call, and management could not specify when it would return. Forest product volumes also declined 2%, and international intermodal volumes fell 2% in Q2 FY2026.
  • −The acceleration thesis depends partly on improving freight demand, with management acknowledging that the freight environment since April 2023 has been much weaker than its original expectations. If the expected volume acceleration does not materialize during the second half of FY2026, the operating leverage underpinning double-digit earnings growth expectations could be delayed.
  • −Merger activity among competing rail companies could alter competitive options, routes, and available capacity in North America; CPKC management has explicitly opposed further consolidation and cited the risks of market concentration and operational congestion. At the same time, any competitive response by CPKC could require additional agreements with BNSF or CSX or operating investments, without the company providing a specific commitment to an outcome or transaction.
What is the biggest weakness in CP’s results?

Coal was the weakest business in Q2 FY2026, with revenue declining 18% and volumes falling 29% due to production issues at customer mines. This decline reduced total revenue ton-mile growth by approximately three percentage points, and management expects coal to remain a drag during the second half of FY2026. In addition, refined fuel activity into Mexico had been nearly halted during the six to eight months preceding the July 29, 2026 call, and management did not specify when it would return.

Can the CPKC network absorb additional growth?

Management said on the July 29, 2026 call that the company had already invested in locomotives, railcars, and track, and that the primary requirement as volumes rise would be an incremental increase in headcount. CPKC received all 70 Wabtec locomotives scheduled for FY2026, after receiving 100 locomotives from the same company in the previous year. Rail installation productivity also increased 18% and tie installation productivity rose 59%, while headcount was approximately 500 employees lower despite volume growth of 3% to 4% during FY2026.

What do CP’s liquidity and capital allocation look like?

Net cash provided by operating activities increased 8% in the first half of FY2026, and adjusted free cash flow reached $1.3 billion, up 25%. The company spent $1.4 billion on capital expenditures during the period and maintained its FY2026 target at $2.65 billion, down 15% from the previous year. It also returned $2.4 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends during the first half of FY2026.