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Home
Stocks
Costco Wholesale Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall47
Balanced — near the middle of the marketFalling StarF 7/9SafeBetter than 47% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
28
45.5x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
54
9.2%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
58
21.5%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
83
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
24
0.59%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
38
-0.7%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
72
27▲3Top tier
COST

COST Costco Wholesale Corporation

Costco Wholesale Corporation · NASDAQ
Market Closed
904.77
▲ ⁦+0.26%⁩ (+2.39)
Market Cap$400.2B
Beta0.86
52w Low52w High
844.061,096.50
Last Week
⁦-2.23%⁩
Last Month
⁦-4.72%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-7.27%⁩
Last Year
⁦-5.39%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$905
Analyst target · 10 analysts
$1100
⁦+22%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$1000–$1275⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$558
⁦-38%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦8.2⁩% discount · ⁦7⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$558–$1100⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 10 analysts setting price target
$1101.78
⁦+21.8%⁩
Current Price $904.77·Median $1100.00
Low
$1000.00
High
$1275.00
Current price
$904.77
Average target
$1101.78
Street summary

Costco Price Targets Stable with a Slight Downward Bias

Current price target expectations stand at 1101.78 versus a current price of 902.6, with a wide range between 1000 and 1275 and a median average of 1100 from 10 analysts. The consensus was unchanged over one day, but declined slightly by 0.19% over 7 days and 0.16% over 30 days, with no change in the number of analysts; this indicates a limited deterioration in the overall outlook rather than a sharp shift.

As of 2026-09-09
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-0.2%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.62
Buy
Analyst coverage
39
Buy conviction
59%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
30%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time39 analysts rating
4
19
14
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.65 → 3.62
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-04
    Deutsche Bank
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-06
    Deutsche Bank
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-13
    RBC Capital
    Sector Perform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    45.49x
    4.61x36.85x
    Very expensive
  • Forward P/E
    39.76x
    3.86x30.86x
    Very expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    28.33x
    2.86x22.90x
    Expensive
  • FCF Yield
    2.4%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    9.2%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    12.8%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    12.9%
    9.2%67.5%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    21.5%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    0.6%
    0.9%8.3%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    27.0%
    15.9%176.6%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    8.85
    -4.825.90
    Exceptional
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-05-28 data

Company Overview

Costco Wholesale Corporation operates a membership-based retail warehouse model and generates revenue from sales of food and sundries and non-food merchandise, along with fuel, pharmacies, and e-commerce, while membership fees represent a highly important recurring source. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, membership fee income reached $1.37 billion, up 10.7% year over year, with 82.9 million paid memberships and 149 million cardholders; paid executive memberships also reached 41.2 million, up 9.6%. The renewal rate reached 92.2% in the United States and Canada and 89.7% worldwide, reflecting strong member retention.

According to EDGAR data, Costco generated revenue of $70.5 billion, gross profit of $9.0 billion, and net income of $2.2 billion in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, with earnings per share of $4.93; this equates to a gross margin of approximately 12.8% and a net margin of approximately 3.1%. On the earnings call for the twelve-week period ended May 10, 2026, the company reported net sales of $69.2 billion, up 11.6%, and net income of $2.19 billion, up 15%, while the reported gross margin rate declined to 11.04% from 11.25%. On a trailing-twelve-month basis through fiscal 2026, the company recorded revenue of $293.6 billion, net income of $8.8 billion, and earnings per share of approximately $19.89.

The growth mix in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 was broad but tilted toward businesses with different margins: comparable sales rose 9.8% and 6.6% after excluding the impact of fuel inflation and foreign exchange, and digitally enabled comparable sales increased 21.5%. Comparable sales of fresh foods and non-food merchandise grew in the high single digits, and food and sundries grew in the mid-single digits, while ancillary businesses increased in the mid-20s, led by pharmacies, and comparable fuel sales jumped in the high 20s. Faster growth in fuel, e-commerce, and pharmacies created mix pressure on the core margin, despite a one-basis-point improvement in gross margin after excluding fuel inflation.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue reported in the news, at $70.53 billion, exceeded the analyst estimate of $70.12 billion, and net income reported on the call rose 15% to $2.19 billion; however, earnings per share of $4.93 fell short of the $4.98 expectation.
  • Sales momentum continued after the quarter ended, with net sales for July ended August 2, 2026, reaching approximately $23.12 billion, up 10.7%, while sales for the first 48 weeks of fiscal 2026 reached $273.55 billion, up 10.1% from the comparable period.
  • The membership base deepens the economics of recurring growth: fee income rose 10.7% to $1.37 billion, and executive memberships increased 9.6% to 41.2 million, while the September 2024 fee increase in the United States and Canada accounted for slightly more than one-quarter of membership income growth.
  • Digital channels are driving faster growth than stores; digitally enabled sales rose 21.5%, website and app visits increased 37%, and personalized product recommendation carousels achieved a conversion rate three times the usual rate and contributed slightly less than $5 billion in e-commerce sales. Average same-day delivery time within the United States was also less than 45 minutes, with a satisfaction rating of 4.8 out of 5.
  • Kirkland Signature supports sales through products launched in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, including KS energy drink, KS ultra filtered milk, KS sea salt popcorn, and KS oven roasted chicken dog food, with targeted savings of between 15% and 20% compared with comparable national brands. In pharmacies, increased demand for GLP-1 drugs and the inclusion of Wegovy and Ozempic in the Member Prescription Program supported growth in ancillary businesses and their market share.
  • Costco is targeting more than 30 net openings annually over the coming years, after opening four net warehouses in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 and reaching 928 at quarter-end. However, the fiscal 2026 opening forecast was reduced to 26 net warehouses, down two buildings from the previous call after their openings were moved to fiscal 2027.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The membership model combines fee growth with high retention; the 10.7% increase in membership income, the United States and Canada renewal rate reaching 92.2%, and 9.6% growth in executive memberships provide a recurring base that supports higher spending and visits from executive members.
  • +The core business demonstrated strong resilience in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, with comparable sales growth of 6.6% after excluding fuel inflation and foreign exchange, a 15% increase in net income, followed by 10.7% sales growth in July 2026.
  • +E-commerce, personalization, and AI-powered search are opening additional growth avenues; digital comparable sales rose 21.5%, personalized product recommendations achieved conversion three times the usual rate, while traffic from AI search grew at a triple-digit rate in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, although its volume remained low.
  • +Physical expansion supports capacity growth, with expected capital expenditures of approximately $6.5 billion in fiscal 2026 to open warehouses, remodel locations, expand the logistics warehouse network, and improve the digital experience.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst target is $1103.58, within a wide range of $1000 to $1275, and the consensus recommendation is Buy; the average sits slightly above the top of the 52-week range of $1096.50. By contrast, the forward P/E ratio of 41.93 times, compared with 15.88 times for Target and 15.26 times for Dollar General, indicates a significant valuation premium that makes the stock sensitive to any slowdown in membership growth or continued margin pressure, despite strong sales and earnings.

BuyAnalyst target: $1,103.58(+22.0%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-25; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

How were COST's results in the third quarter of fiscal 2026?

According to EDGAR data, revenue was $70.5 billion, gross profit was $9.0 billion, net income was $2.2 billion, and earnings per share were $4.93. The May 28, 2026 call reported that net sales for the twelve-week period ended May 10 were $69.2 billion, up 11.6%, and that net income rose 15% to $2.19 billion. Comparable sales increased 9.8%, or 6.6% after excluding fuel inflation and foreign exchange. The reported gross margin rate declined to 11.04% from 11.25% in the comparable quarter.

How strong is Costco's membership model in fiscal 2026?

Membership fee income reached $1.37 billion in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, up 10.7%, or 9.9% after adjusting for foreign exchange. Paid memberships reached 82.9 million and cardholders reached 149 million, while executive memberships increased 9.6% to 41.2 million. The renewal rate was 92.2% in the United States and Canada and 89.7% worldwide. After excluding the fee increase implemented in September 2024 and the impact of foreign exchange, membership income grew 7% due to membership gains and upgrades to executive membership.

What are the digital growth drivers for COST stock?

Digitally enabled comparable sales rose 21.5% in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, or 20.8% after adjusting for foreign exchange, while website and app visits increased 37%. Personalized product recommendation carousels achieved a conversion rate three times the usual rate and contributed slightly less than $5 billion in e-commerce sales. Visits originating from AI search also achieved triple-digit growth and the highest conversion rate among traffic sources, although their volume remained low. Same-day service supports this trajectory with average delivery of less than 45 minutes in the United States and a satisfaction rating of 4.8 out of 5.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Profitability came under pressure from the sales mix and price investment; the reported gross margin rate declined 21 basis points to 11.04%, and the margin of core businesses on their sales fell nine basis points due to lower margins in fresh foods and food and sundries, along with higher transportation costs.
  • −Fuel inflation, tariffs, and fluctuating input costs represent direct operating risks; Costco warned about the impact of higher oil prices and the costs of resin and memory chips, with prices potentially rising for non-food categories containing plastic, polyester, or cotton. The amount and timing of any sums the company returns to members from Section 301 tariff refund claims also depend on the amount of claims accepted, when funds are received, and developments in the litigation concerning the return mechanism.
  • −Paid membership growth slowed to 4.1%, a level one analyst on the call described as the lowest in some time, while management said a range of 4% to 5% is closer to the normal rate in the absence of entry into a large international market or an exceptional event. Members who join online also renew at a slightly lower average rate than those who join through warehouses, putting pressure on the overall renewal rate as their share increases.
  • −Competition in delivery speed and digital commerce remains strong against Walmart and Amazon, while Costco's same-day delivery service depends on third-party partners. Although average delivery time in the United States is less than 45 minutes and member satisfaction is 4.8 out of 5, the rise of agentic commerce may require continued investment and operational assessment to maintain competitiveness.
  • −The valuation carries multiple-compression risk, as the cited forward P/E ratio reached 41.93 times, versus 15.88 times for Target and 15.26 times for Dollar General. This gap means the stock needs continued membership, digital sales, and earnings growth to justify its premium, particularly as the high end of the 52-week range was $1096.50.
  • −Insider activity showed one sale and no purchases during the three months ended with the latest transaction on June 23, 2026, for net selling of approximately $847.3 thousand. This is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the context provides no evidence otherwise.
How does Kirkland Signature support Costco's growth?

Through Kirkland Signature, Costco targets savings of between 15% and 20% compared with the equivalent national brand, with equal or better quality. Third-quarter fiscal 2026 launches included KS energy drink, KS ultra filtered milk, KS sea salt popcorn, and KS oven roasted chicken dog food. The company also reduced the price of KS Crispy Wings from $16.99 to $14.99, KS golf balls from $32.99 to $29.99, and KS king-size sheets from $89.99 to $79.99. The company links these innovations and price reductions to strengthening the value offered to members and growth in food and sundries.

What are Costco's main margin risks in fiscal 2026?

The reported gross margin rate declined by 21 basis points to 11.04% in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, while the core margin on core sales fell nine basis points. Pressure came from price reductions on eggs and meat, higher transportation costs, and fuel, e-commerce, and pharmacies growing faster than the core merchandise business. Nevertheless, gross margin improved by one basis point after excluding fuel inflation, and management said its trend over a period ranging from 12 to 24 months had been stable with slight improvement. Oil prices and the costs of resin, memory chips, and tariffs may add further pressure on the costs of non-food categories.

What is Costco's warehouse opening and capital expenditure plan?

Costco opened four net warehouses during the third quarter of fiscal 2026, including three in the United States and an additional business center in Canada, bringing the total to 928 warehouses at quarter-end. The company expects 26 net openings in fiscal 2026, down two buildings from the previous estimate after their openings were moved to fiscal 2027. Management is targeting more than 30 net openings annually over the coming years, with opportunities in Canada, China, Korea, Japan, Spain, the United Kingdom, and France. Capital expenditures for fiscal 2026 are estimated at approximately $6.5 billion to fund new warehouses, remodels, the logistics warehouse network, and digital capabilities.