| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 25 | 48.4x | 17.3x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 60 | 10.1% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 57 | 21.1% | 4.5% | Around median | |
Safety | 83 | — | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 46 | 0.55% | 0.06% | Around median | |
Momentum | 66 | -2.0% | -1.6% | Around median | |
Sentiment | 63 | 27 | 3 | Around median |
The floor: what the company is worth if growth stopped today
74% of today's price is what a buyer pays for growth that has not happened yet.
10-year US Treasury yield 4.96% as of 2026-10-22. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Costco Wholesale Corporation operates a network of retail warehouses based on paid membership, generating revenue from merchandise sales and membership fees, alongside fuel, pharmacy, travel, and digital channels. Its network reached 939 warehouses by the end of fiscal year 2026 (ended 2026-08-30). The Kirkland Signature brand supports its value proposition, while delivery services through Instacart, Uber Eats, and DoorDash expand the ways members can access its products. This model combines growth in the subscriber base with increased member spending across warehouses and ancillary services.
Costco generated revenue of 95.7 billion dollars in quarter 4 of fiscal year 2026 (ended 2026-08-30), up 11.1% from the same quarter a year earlier, with net income of 3.0 billion dollars and diluted earnings per share of 6.75 dollars. Gross margin was 12.7% versus 12.9% in quarter 4 of fiscal year 2025, while operating margin rose to 4.0% from 3.9% in the corresponding period. This divergence shows that improved operating efficiency accompanied pressure on gross margin, rather than earnings growth coming solely from wider merchandise sales margins.
Membership fee income reached 1.849 billion dollars in quarter 4 of fiscal year 2026 (ended 2026-08-30), up 7.3% from the same quarter a year earlier, with paid membership reaching 84.1 million members. Across the business mix, digital comparable sales grew 19.5% from the corresponding period, while fuel, pharmacy, and travel sales advanced faster than the company's overall growth. Revenue for fiscal year 2026 (ended 2026-08-30) reached 303.2 billion dollars, with net income of 9.2 billion dollars; sustaining performance therefore depends on combining member retention with increased member spending while controlling the cost of offering low prices.
Q4 FY2026
Last 12 months to 2026-08-30
When: 2026-12-10
Revenue growth compared with the same quarter a year earlier at the 11.1% threshold in the expected earnings release
Operating margin at the 4.0% threshold in the expected earnings release
The median target of 10 analysts is 1100 dollars, within a range of 955 to 1275 dollars; this method prices in expected growth and tends to be optimistic by nature. The industry multiple valuation is 471 dollars, within a range of 403 to 653 dollars, using next year's earnings and a median multiple of 20.4 across 8 companies, measuring Costco's value when priced like its peers. The no-growth valuation is 258 dollars at a discount rate of 8.9%, representing the value of keeping current after-tax operating profit constant forever. The methods do not converge numerically; analyst targets exceed the industry multiple valuation, which in turn exceeds the no-growth valuation. This progression reflects the differences in what each method prices in: expected growth, peer comparisons, and the continuation of earnings without growth.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-10-19; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Membership fee income reached 1.849 billion dollars in quarter 4 of fiscal year 2026 (ended 2026-08-30), growing 7.3% from the same quarter a year earlier. Paid membership reached 84.1 million members, including 42.3 million Executive members, with a renewal rate of 92.3% in the United States and Canada. This base gives Costco recurring subscription revenue and an opportunity to increase member spending, but paid membership growth of 3.8% from the corresponding period makes retention and increased purchases critical factors.
Digitally enabled sales exceeded 33 billion dollars in fiscal year 2026 (ended 2026-08-30), increasing more than 20% from the previous fiscal year. Management said on the 2026-09-24 call that delivery platform sales are largely incremental and have a limited effect on in-warehouse grocery activity. The company combines Instacart with the expansion of Uber Eats and DoorDash in the United States, with delivery averaging less than an hour across the three platforms. Digital sales growth remains an operating strength provided it continues to expand the relationship with members as management describes.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
When: Fiscal year 2027
Execution of the plan to open 33 warehouses, including 5 relocations
According to EL7 data, operating cash flow reached approximately 15.8 billion dollars for the last 12 months through 2026-08-30, versus net income of 9.2 billion dollars for the same period. However, free cash flow as calculated by EL7 (operating cash flow minus capital expenditures) for the last 12 months through 2026-08-30 was 4.0 billion dollars, illustrating the amount of cash absorbed by investments. Costco plans capital expenditures of approximately 7.5 billion dollars in fiscal year 2027 to support warehouses and the supply chain. Its financial profile therefore combines strong cash generation with substantial investment requirements that must translate into sustainable growth.
Costco received refunds and interest totaling 184 million dollars in quarter 4 of fiscal year 2026 (ended 2026-08-30), including 174 million dollars in tariff refunds and 10 million dollars in interest. The net nonrecurring benefit after reinvesting part of the amounts was 0.15 dollars per diluted share during the same quarter. The company intends to direct most of the refunds toward lower merchandise prices for members, with the impact of refunds and their reinvestment continuing during fiscal year 2027. This supports the value offered to members, but does not provide a permanent basis for repeating the same earnings benefit.
The median analyst target is 1100 dollars, versus 471 dollars under the industry multiple valuation and 258 dollars under the no-growth valuation. Analyst targets price in expected growth, while the industry method uses next year's earnings at a median multiple of 20.4 across 8 companies, and the no-growth method assumes after-tax operating profit remains constant forever. Differing expectations are also evident in Tigress Financial raising its target to 1250 dollars on 2026-10-15, after Deutsche Bank lowered its target to 1079 dollars on 2026-09-28. The differences therefore reflect different assumptions about continued growth and how it is priced, and the methods do not represent a single agreed estimate.