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Stocks
Core & Main, Inc.
CNM

CNM Core & Main, Inc.

Core & Main, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
40.62
▼ ⁦-0.56%⁩ (-0.23)
Market Cap$7.6B
Beta0.92
52w Low52w High
40.4159.66
Last Week
⁦-7.20%⁩
Last Month
⁦-12.89%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-17.84%⁩
Last Year
⁦-18.27%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall42
Weak — below market medianContrarianF 7/8SafeBetter than 42% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
70
16.6x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
28
9.8%▲7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
59
12.2%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
58
2.5x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
32
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
17
-30.5%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
84
6▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$41
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$55
⁦+35%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$48–$61⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$7.78
⁦-81%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦8.4⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$7.78–$55⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$54.80
⁦+34.9%⁩
Current Price $40.62·Median $55.00
Low
$48.00
High
$61.00
Current price
$40.62
Average target
$54.80
Street summary

A significant increase in the target price with ratings unchanged

Bullish tilt

CNM’s consensus target price rose from 24 to 54.8 over the last 7 days, an increase of 30.8 or 128.33%, while the number of analysts remained at 3. The consensus did not change over the last day, remaining at 54.8. The current target price is also higher than the current price of 40.62, while the target range is between 48 and 61, reflecting a more bullish trend despite the limited number and variation of estimates.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+128.3%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.60
Buy
Analyst coverage
15
Buy conviction
53%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
32%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time15 analysts rating
3
5
6
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.53 → 3.60
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-11
    Citigroup
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-09-10
    Barclays
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-09-10
    Wells Fargo
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    16.65x
    5.69x45.54x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    14.34x
    4.57x36.58x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    10.99x
    3.43x27.47x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    3.0%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    9.8%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    8.0%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    26.8%
    8.6%54.6%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    12.2%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.50x
    0.55x4.37x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    3.12
    -5.667.97
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-09-09 data

Company Overview

Core & Main distributes products and solutions required for water, wastewater, stormwater drainage, fire protection, and smart utility infrastructure. The company benefits from its branch network and local relationships with contractors, municipalities, and suppliers, generating revenue from supplying pipes, meters, and specialized products, as well as software, integration services, and technical support for complex, multi-year projects. Demand drivers include municipal water network repairs, treatment plants, data center development, and fire protection projects, while residential land development and light commercial construction represent weaker areas in the mix.

In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, net sales increased 2.5% to approximately $2.1 billion, with volume, pricing, and acquisitions all contributing positively to growth, and acquisitions contributing less than one percentage point. Gross profit according to EDGAR data was approximately $573 million, and the company reported a gross margin of approximately 26.7% in its earnings presentation, while net income was $144 million and earnings per share according to EDGAR were approximately $0.77. On an adjusted basis, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 3% to $274 million, its margin expanded 10 basis points to 12.8%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 8% to $0.94.

The operating mix was uneven in the second quarter of fiscal 2026: fire protection sales grew 14%, and the contribution from data center projects nearly doubled year over year to a mid-single-digit percentage of total business and a high-single-digit percentage of non-residential business. Treatment plant solutions achieved strong double-digit growth and came to represent a mid-single-digit percentage of sales, while municipal activity remained stable at low-single-digit growth. In contrast, residential land development declined by a high-single-digit percentage, and light commercial construction and retail remained weak.

What's Driving the Stock

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Core & Main reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance for revenue between $7.8 billion and $7.9 billion, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization between $950 million and $980 million, and operating cash flow conversion between 60% and 70%. Management expects adjusted earnings margin expansion in the second half, with most of the improvement occurring in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026.
  • Data center activity nearly doubled year over year in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, reaching a mid-single-digit percentage of the company’s total business. Core & Main benefits from supplying water, wastewater, stormwater drainage, and fire protection infrastructure, as well as from associated municipal demand to increase water and treatment capacity around those projects.
  • The Miami-Dade smart utility contract is a project spanning approximately five years, and the company expects it to reach a pace of nearly 100 thousand installed and connected meters annually during fiscal 2027. Management expects to ship only between 5% and 10% of the total project near the end of fiscal 2026, and it also won another major project with Connecticut Water.
  • Fire protection grew 14% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, driven by market share gains and higher steel prices; management explained that approximately two-thirds of the growth was related to pricing, with volume also contributing. Treatment plants also achieved double-digit growth, supporting growth outside the weak residential and light commercial activities.
  • The company opened seven new locations since the beginning of fiscal 2026, consisting of three locations in the western United States, two in the Southeast, and two in Canada, and is heading toward a record number of openings during the year. After the end of the quarter, it acquired Walker Industries, a supplier of stormwater drainage products in Hawaii, while several other acquisition opportunities reached the letter-of-intent and due-diligence stage.
  • Core & Main spent approximately $169 million to repurchase 3.7 million shares during the second quarter of fiscal 2026, after which the total, including purchases made after the end of the quarter, rose to approximately $270 million for approximately 5.7 million shares. Since the initial public offering, it has repurchased approximately 58 million shares, representing nearly 25% of the shares outstanding at the time of the offering, which supported adjusted earnings-per-share growth during the quarter.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case5 pts

    • +The municipal business is supported by the need to repair, replace, and expand water networks, and the EPA estimated a need for more than $1.2 trillion in drinking water, wastewater, and stormwater investment over twenty years. Management reported that municipal demand remained strong and stable at low-single-digit growth, with most funding relying on local and state-level sources rather than a single federal source.
    • +Data center, treatment plant, and fire protection projects provide the company with multiple growth drivers; data center activity nearly doubled, treatment plants grew by double digits, and fire protection increased 14% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026. These projects benefit from the branch network, local relationships, and technical capabilities required by large, multi-year projects.
    • +The company demonstrated operating leverage despite moderate sales growth; selling, general, and administrative expenses remained at approximately $301 million but improved by approximately 40 basis points as a percentage of sales. This led adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization to increase 3% and its margin to expand to 12.8%.
    • +Liquidity of approximately $1.5 billion, including more than $300 million in cash, provides flexibility to fund new locations, acquisitions, and share repurchases. Net debt was approximately $2.2 billion and net leverage was 2.3 times, within management’s target range.
    • +Insider activity during the three months ending with the latest transaction on July 6, 2026, showed one purchase and no sales, a limited supportive signal rather than a substitute for evaluating operating performance and cash flows.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Residential land development declined by a high-single-digit percentage in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, following a low-double-digit decline in the first quarter. Guidance assumes activity will remain flat or slightly lower in the second half and decline by a mid-single-digit percentage for the full year, without assuming an actual improvement in demand levels.
    • −Most traditional non-residential construction categories, particularly light commercial and retail, remained weak in the second quarter of fiscal 2026. The stability of this market depends significantly on data center activity, making a slowdown in those projects capable of exposing weakness in the rest of the non-residential mix.
    • −Large smart utility projects involve variability in the timing of commencement and execution; the Miami-Dade project is expected to ship only 5% to 10% of its volume near the end of fiscal 2026 before reaching its full pace in fiscal 2027. Testing, systems integration, and weather may also delay shipments for large projects, even with a strong order backlog.
    • −Gross margin was approximately 26.7% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 and remained close to its year-ago level, as private-label initiatives offset the effects of changes in project mix and a stable pricing environment. PVC price increases did not hold, and management does not expect a clear improvement before demand recovers in markets with high consumption of this material, limiting pricing support for margins.
    • −The company carries net debt of approximately $2.2 billion and net leverage of 2.3 times, despite having liquidity of approximately $1.5 billion. Operating cash flow was only $62 million for the quarter and $144 million for the first half of fiscal 2026, with the generation of most annual cash flow dependent on second-half seasonality.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is rated “Buy,” but the average, highest, and lowest targets are all $24, approximately 42% below the 52-week range low of $41.25 and approximately 60% below its high of $59.66; therefore, the internal consensus data appear inconsistent and do not provide a genuine range of differing views. The available data do not include a standardized price-to-earnings multiple suitable for reliance, while the stock’s decline after the September 9, 2026 results reflects the market’s focus on slow organic growth, the timing of large projects, and margin sustainability rather than merely a modest quarterly expectations beat.

    BuyAnalyst target: $24(-40.9%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-10; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What were Core & Main’s key results in the second quarter of fiscal 2026?

    Net sales increased 2.5% to approximately $2.1 billion, while gross profit according to EDGAR was approximately $573 million and net income was $144 million. The company reported a gross margin of approximately 26.7%, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 3% to $274 million and its margin expanded to 12.8%. Earnings per share according to EDGAR were approximately $0.77, while adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 8% to $0.94 from $0.87 a year earlier.

    How does Core & Main benefit from data center growth?

    The company provides data center projects with water, wastewater, and stormwater drainage infrastructure from the site development stages, then adds fire protection systems as construction progresses. Data center activity nearly doubled year over year in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 and came to represent a mid-single-digit percentage of total business and a high-single-digit percentage of non-residential business. Additional revenue may arise when municipalities need to expand water capacity or build treatment facilities to serve data centers and the surrounding areas.

    What is the significance of the Miami-Dade smart utility project for Core & Main?

    Management described Miami-Dade as its largest known smart meter project, an implementation project spanning approximately five years. The company expects to move only between 5% and 10% of the project’s volume near the end of fiscal 2026 due to testing phases and preparatory work. During fiscal 2027, it expects the project to reach a full pace of approximately 100 thousand meters installed and connected annually, making it a multi-year driver rather than an immediate revenue surge.

    What is Core & Main’s outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2026?

    The company reaffirmed its annual revenue range of $7.8 billion to $7.9 billion and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization range of $950 million to $980 million. It also maintained its operating cash flow conversion target of 60% to 70%, with most cash flow expected to be generated in the second half because of business seasonality. Management expects adjusted earnings margin expansion in the second half, particularly in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, supported by leverage in selling, general, and administrative expenses and some improvement in gross margin.

    What are the biggest areas of demand weakness for Core & Main?

    Residential land development activity declined by a high-single-digit percentage in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, following a low-double-digit decline in the first quarter. Management expects this activity to be flat or slightly lower in the second half and to end the year with a mid-single-digit decline, without assuming a market-level recovery. Light commercial construction and retail also remained weak, while data centers offset a significant portion of this pressure within the non-residential market.

    How does Core & Main allocate capital between acquisitions and share repurchases?

    The company spent $169 million to repurchase 3.7 million shares in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, and spending reached approximately $270 million for 5.7 million shares after including purchases made after the end of the quarter. Since the initial public offering, it has repurchased approximately 58 million shares for a value of nearly $2 billion, equivalent to approximately 25% of the shares outstanding at the time of the offering. In parallel, it opened seven new locations since the beginning of fiscal 2026 and acquired Walker Industries in Hawaii after the end of the quarter, while its long-term strategy targets acquisitions contributing approximately two to four percentage points of sales growth.

  • −Valuation data show a material contradiction: the analyst consensus is rated “Buy,” but the sole target of $24 is below the 52-week range minimum of $41.25, with no difference between the highest and lowest targets. This superficial consistency weakens the usefulness of the consensus as a valuation anchor and warrants caution against relying on it alone, particularly after the stock declined following the September 9, 2026 results despite a modest beat versus expectations.