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Home
Stocks
CNH Industrial N.V.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall45
Weak — below market medianHigh FlyerF 5/9Grey zoneBetter than 45% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
48
52.2x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
11
0.6%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
61
6.7%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
33
9.9x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
38
0.82%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
70
-9.1%▼2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
82
12▲3Top tier
CNH

CNH CNH Industrial N.V.

CNH Industrial N.V. · NYSE
Market Closed
13.58
▲ ⁦+0.59%⁩ (+0.08)
Market Cap$16.8B
Beta1.18
52w Low52w High
9.0014.46
Last Week
⁦-0.51%⁩
Last Month
⁦+24.47%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+24.02%⁩
Last Year
⁦+18.60%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$14
Analyst target · 6 analysts
$14
⁦+4%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$12–$18⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$-5.61
⁦-141%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.6⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$-5.61–$14⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target
$14.56
⁦+7.2%⁩
Current Price $13.58·Median $14.13
Low
$12.00
High
$18.00
Current price
$13.58
Average target
$14.56
Street summary

CNH target improves amid continued divergence

Bullish tilt

The average price target for CNH rose over the last 30 days from 13.11 to 14.56, an increase of 11.06%, while the number of analysts remained unchanged at 6. There has been no change over the last 7 days, while the current range is between 12 and 18, and the median is 14.13 compared with a current price of 13.9; this points to a view slightly above the price, but with clear divergence among estimates.

As of 2026-09-09
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+11.1%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.58
Buy
Analyst coverage
19
Buy conviction
53%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
1↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
44%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time19 analysts rating
3
7
8
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.68 → 3.58
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-09-02
    Evercore ISI Group
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-04
    Bernstein
    Market Perform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-04
    BMO Capital
    Market Perform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    52.23x
    5.69x45.54x
    Expensive
  • Forward P/E
    23.65x
    4.57x36.58x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    16.69x
    3.43x27.47x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    8.3%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    0.6%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -60.0%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Below average
  • Gross Margin
    30.6%
    8.6%54.6%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    6.7%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    9.87x
    0.55x4.37x
    Financial risk
  • Dividend Yield
    0.8%
    0.1%4.8%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    44.7%
    6.6%80.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    2.03
    -5.667.97
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-03 data

Company Overview

CNH Industrial manufactures agricultural and construction equipment and generates revenue primarily from machinery sales through its network of brands and dealers, alongside equipment-related financing services. In fiscal Q2 2026, Agriculture segment sales were approximately $3.3 billion, accounting for about 69% of consolidated revenue, while Construction sales were $866 million; Financial Services also generated net income of $71 million from a managed portfolio of $28 billion and new financing of $2.5 billion.

In fiscal Q2 2026, CNH reported revenue of $4.8 billion, up 2% year over year, including a positive currency impact of approximately 2%, and gross profit of $1.4 billion, with a calculated gross margin of approximately 29.2%. Reported net income was $138 million and earnings per share were $0.11, while adjusted net income was $161 million and adjusted earnings per share were $0.13; Industrial Activities generated free cash flow of $150 million despite a year-over-year decline due to lower operating profit and increased working capital investment.

Performance varied significantly across segments and regions during fiscal Q2 2026: Agriculture sales rose 1%, driven by growth of 10% in North America and 1% in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, versus a 27% decline in South America. Construction sales, meanwhile, rose 12% to $866 million due to strength in North America and the delivery of some machinery delayed in fiscal Q1 2026 because of a supplier quality issue, but tariffs pressured the margins of both segments.

What's Driving the Stock

  • CNH raised its adjusted earnings per share guidance range for fiscal 2026 to $0.41–$0.46 and expects Industrial net sales to range between flat and 2% growth, with an adjusted Industrial operating profit margin of 3.2%–3.8% and Industrial free cash flow of $200–$400 million.
  • The improvement in Construction is the most prominent growth driver: its sales increased 12% in fiscal Q2 2026, and the company raised its full-year sales growth outlook to 5%–10%, with fiscal Q3 2026 sales expected to grow by a low- to mid-teens percentage and continued strength in North America.
  • Available order slots for the remainder of fiscal 2026 are nearly full, prompting the company to place its Agriculture sales outlook at the upper end of its previous range, or approximately flat year over year, with expected positive pricing of 1.5%–2%. The company is also targeting an adjusted operating profit margin for Agriculture of 5%–5.5%.
  • The reduction of certain Section 232 tariffs from 25% to 15% represents potential support for margins; CNH lowered its estimate of the full-year tariff impact to approximately 170 basis points in Agriculture and 470 basis points in Construction. The company also submitted refund claims of approximately $135 million under phase two, in addition to approximately $15 million it intends to claim in phase three, but these amounts are not included in guidance due to uncertainty regarding collection timing.
  • The strategic sourcing program alone targets adding 100–150 basis points to margin by 2030, while the first wave has begun generating savings and the second wave is scheduled to begin contributing in 2027. The company links this to improvements in quality and plant efficiency and expanded adoption of connected and AI-enabled solutions across its equipment base and dealer network.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +CNH demonstrated an ability to exceed expectations in fiscal Q2 2026 with revenue of $4.8 billion, then raised its full-year adjusted earnings per share guidance range to $0.41–$0.46 despite weakness in the agricultural equipment cycle and tariff pressure.
  • +The Construction segment provides a growing source of diversification, with sales rising 12% to $866 million in fiscal Q2 2026, and management raising its full-year sales growth outlook to 5%–10%, benefiting from North American demand and infrastructure, data center and power generation projects.
  • +Sourcing, quality and manufacturing efficiency initiatives could support an earnings recovery even if agricultural retail sales remain flat in 2027; the company is targeting a 100–150 basis-point margin improvement from sourcing alone by 2030 and expects to increase production in 2027 after it was approximately 4% below retail demand in 2026.
  • +The company continued returning capital in fiscal Q2 2026, paying total annual dividends of $126 million and repurchasing $36 million of shares, while maintaining investment in products, precision technologies and industrial facilities as a priority.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $12.69, versus a wide target range of $10.50–$16 and a consensus rating of “Buy”; the average is approximately 4.7% below the 52-week range high of $13.31. The 52-week range is $9–$13.31, while no valid price-to-earnings multiple is available in the data, making the stock’s valuation more closely tied to CNH’s ability to achieve adjusted earnings per share of $0.41–$0.46 in fiscal 2026 and restore margins amid a weak agricultural cycle. The wide range of analyst targets reflects meaningful disagreement over the value of the Construction improvement and sourcing savings versus tariff risks and declining Agriculture margins.

BuyAnalyst target: $12.69(-6.6%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove CNH’s results in fiscal Q2 2026?

Revenue was $4.8 billion, up 2% year over year, including a positive currency impact of approximately 2%. Agriculture sales rose 1%, while Construction sales grew 12% to $866 million, driven by North America and deliveries of machinery that had been delayed due to a supplier quality issue in fiscal Q1 2026. Reported net income was $138 million, while the company recorded adjusted net income of $161 million and adjusted earnings per share of $0.13.

What is CNH’s outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2026?

The company expects Industrial net sales to be flat or grow by up to 2%, with an adjusted Industrial operating profit margin of 3.2%–3.8%. It set adjusted earnings per share guidance at $0.41–$0.46 and Industrial free cash flow guidance at $200–$400 million. At the segment level, it expects Agriculture sales to be approximately flat and Construction sales to grow between 5% and 10%.

Why do tariffs represent an important risk for CNH?

The company estimates the fiscal 2026 tariff impact at approximately 170 basis points on Agriculture and 470 basis points on Construction because Construction is more dependent on imported finished equipment and North American sales. Section 232 tariffs on certain equipment categories were reduced to 15% from 25%, but higher transportation costs offset part of the benefit. CNH submitted refund claims of approximately $135 million in phase two after collecting $5 million in fiscal Q2 2026, but uncollected amounts were not included in guidance.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −The business depends heavily on the agricultural equipment cycle; Agriculture sales of $3.3 billion accounted for approximately 69% of fiscal Q2 2026 revenue, while farmer profitability remained under pressure and management expects an L-shaped recovery, with retail demand approximately flat in 2027 and the market driven primarily by replacement demand.
  • −Margins reflect material deterioration despite revenue growth: Agriculture gross margin declined to 19.7% from 21.8%, and its adjusted operating profit margin fell to 5.2% from 8.1%, while Construction gross margin declined to 11.9% from 15.7% and its adjusted operating profit margin fell to 1.7% from 4.5% in fiscal Q2 2026.
  • −South America deteriorated significantly, with Agriculture sales declining 27% in fiscal Q2 2026 and risk costs rising in Financial Services in Brazil. Delinquencies also reached 4.4% and were above their year-ago level, and management confirmed that the finance company’s risks in the region have not disappeared.
  • −Tariffs and logistics costs continue to pressure profitability; CNH expects an impact of approximately 170 basis points on Agriculture and 470 basis points on Construction during fiscal 2026, while higher shipping costs offset a substantial portion of the Section 232 tariff reduction. The outlook also excluded any potential impact from Section 301 investigations related to excess production capacity or the possibility that USMCA will not be renewed.
  • −The demand cycle faces risks from weak crop prices and high fuel, fertilizer and transportation costs, while Europe, the Middle East and Africa performed below expectations and dealer inventory accumulated there. The company is targeting an additional $400–$500 million reduction in dealer inventory through the end of fiscal 2026, requiring continued production discipline.
  • −Competition exists from Chinese and Indian tractors in Africa, South America and Southeast Asia, particularly in lower-horsepower categories. Management said on August 3, 2026, that this competition had not yet reached significant scale, but expanding exports from competitors could increase pressure on market share and pricing in those regions.
Has CNH’s agricultural equipment cycle begun to recover?

Management said on August 3, 2026, that it sees no evidence of a sustained recovery and expects an L-shaped path, with retail demand remaining approximately flat in 2027. Some indicators improved, including inventories of new and used machinery and the convergence of new and used equipment prices, but crop prices and farmer profitability remain weak. The company also expects replacement demand to remain the primary driver, with an additional $400–$500 million reduction in dealer inventory through the end of fiscal 2026.

How could CNH’s margins improve after fiscal 2026?

The company is targeting a 100–150 basis-point margin improvement by 2030 from the strategic sourcing program alone, with the first wave beginning to generate results and the second wave starting to contribute in 2027. CNH expects production to increase in 2027 to align more closely with retail demand after production was approximately 4% below demand in 2026. Management also cites positive pricing, quality improvements and plant efficiency, but it did not provide a detailed numerical bridge for 2027 margins on the August 3, 2026, call.