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Stocks
CMS Energy Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall34
Weak — below market medianSucker StockF 6/9DistressBetter than 34% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
42
20.2x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
38
9.9%▲7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
49
5.2%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
27
6.2x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
48
3.31%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
34
-2.3%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
85
11▲3Top tier
CMS

CMS CMS Energy Corporation

CMS Energy Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
67.15
▼ ⁦-0.78%⁩ (-0.53)
Market Cap$21.2B
Beta0.34
52w Low52w High
67.0080.36
Last Week
⁦-1.34%⁩
Last Month
⁦-3.55%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-8.59%⁩
Last Year
⁦-5.30%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$67
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$81
⁦+20%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$77–$84⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$80.38
⁦+19.7%⁩
Current Price $67.15·Median $80.50
Low
$77.00
High
$84.00
Current price
$67.15
Average target
$80.38
Street summary

Slight decline in consensus with divergence remaining

The target-price consensus stabilized over the last day at 80.38, with the number of analysts remaining at 5, but it declined from 81.5 seven days ago and 81.25 30 days ago, down 1.37% and 1.07%, respectively. The current range is between 77 and 84, while the median is 80.5, reflecting relatively limited dispersion around the central estimate compared with the breadth of the overall range.

As of 2026-09-09
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-1.1%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.67
Buy
Analyst coverage
15
Buy conviction
47%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
10%
Analyst ratings over time15 analysts rating
3
4
8
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.56 → 3.67
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-08
    BMO Capital
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-29
    UBS
    Neutral
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-07-23
    KeyBanc
    OverweightSector Weight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    20.17x
    4.50x36.01x
    Above average
  • Forward P/E
    16.77x
    4.35x34.77x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    13.48x
    3.07x24.54x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    -6.8%
    -17.6%10.2%
    Near median
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    9.9%
    -10.5%25.3%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -1.8%
    -53.8%122.0%
    Below average
  • Gross Margin
    69.7%
    9.8%69.4%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    5.2%
    -2.0%11.4%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    6.23x
    1.28x10.25x
    Above average
  • Dividend Yield
    3.3%
    1.4%6.1%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    66.8%
    35.0%95.0%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    0.84
    0.573.91
    Weak
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-28 data

Company Overview

CMS Energy Corporation operates primarily through regulated utility investments in Michigan, where earnings grow through expansion of the asset base permitted under regulatory frameworks and recovery of investment costs through rates. It also owns the unregulated NorthStar business, but its plan announced on July 28, 2026, calls for exiting non-utility renewable energy development and selling non-retained assets and projects, while retaining Dearborn Industrial Generation, the Kalamazoo and Livingston gas-fired plants, and four commercial solar projects in Michigan because they generate cash flows without significant capital requirements.

In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, the company reported revenue of $1.8 billion, net income of $120 million, and earnings per share of $0.37, equivalent to a calculated net income margin of approximately 6.7%; the available EDGAR data did not include a gross profit figure or gross margin. By comparison, fiscal year 2025 revenue was approximately $8.5 billion, net income was $1.1 billion, and earnings per share were $3.53, while the latest twelve-month period in the 2026 data showed revenue of $8.9 billion, net income of $1.0 billion, and earnings per share of approximately $3.32.

On an adjusted basis, CMS Energy generated net income of $464 million and earnings per share of $1.50 during the first half of fiscal year 2026, down $0.23 from the comparable period due to liability management benefits recorded in the first half of fiscal year 2025. The earnings mix is shifting toward regulated utilities; following the NorthStar restructuring, management expects approximately 100% of future earnings and growth to come from the utility asset base, while Dearborn Industrial Generation and the small gas-fired plants remain sources of earnings and cash flow.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On July 28, 2026, management reaffirmed adjusted earnings-per-share guidance for fiscal year 2026 of between $3.83 and $3.90, with confidence in trending toward the upper end, and provided initial fiscal year 2027 guidance of between $4.08 and $4.17 while maintaining its 6% to 8% compound annual growth target.
  • The growth plan is based on $24 billion in utility investments expected to drive compound asset-base growth of 10.5%, along with opportunities not included in the current plan worth $2 billion for utility renewables and $1 billion to improve the reliability of the electricity distribution grid.
  • CMS Energy intends to reallocate approximately $1.7 billion that was primarily designated for renewable energy development at NorthStar and expects the sale and cash flows from retained assets to reduce financing needs by more than $500 million through 2030, including an expected reduction of at least $350 million in planned equity issuance.
  • The company signed a rate agreement and a special facilities agreement with a large-load customer under a tariff requiring the new customer to bear the full cost of serving it; management estimates that each new gigawatt could provide the average residential electricity customer with a benefit of approximately $7.50 per month. The company has also contracted approximately 135 megawatts of manufacturing and industrial loads since the beginning of fiscal year 2026, but inclusion of the data center load in the integrated resource plan is contingent on completing local zoning approval.
  • In June 2026, the company requested a $456 million increase in its electric rate case, with a return on equity of 10.25% and an equity ratio of 51.75%, and revised its requested gas revenue increase to $232 million. Management believes new rates and net investment costs added $0.20 to first-half earnings and expects an additional contribution of $0.22 in the second half of fiscal year 2026.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The regulated utility model provides a visible growth path, as the plan combines $24 billion in investments, expected asset-base growth of 10.5%, and long-term guidance for 6% to 8% growth in adjusted earnings per share.
  • +Exiting unregulated renewable energy development reduces business complexity and parent-company financing needs, while CMS Energy retains Dearborn Industrial Generation, the gas-fired plants, and contracted solar projects that generate cash flow without significant capital spending.
  • +Data center and manufacturing loads create an additional growth opportunity not included in the current capital plan; the company has entered into an agreement under the large-load tariff and contracted approximately 135 megawatts of industrial and manufacturing loads since the beginning of fiscal year 2026.
  • +New rates and net investment costs supported earnings by $0.20 per share during the first half of fiscal year 2026, and management reaffirmed fiscal year 2026 guidance of between $3.83 and $3.90 despite storm costs and unfavorable weather.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $81.50, within a range of $78 to $86, compared with the stock's 52-week range of $67.90 to $80.36; accordingly, the average target is slightly above the top of the annual range, while the upper end assumes greater valuation expansion. The analyst consensus is “Buy,” but the price-to-earnings ratio is unavailable in the provided data, preventing valuation from being tested against earnings using a standardized multiple and making the achievement of analyst targets more closely tied to execution of the NorthStar restructuring, regulatory decisions, and earnings-per-share guidance for fiscal years 2026 and 2027.

BuyAnalyst target: $81.5(+21.4%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What is CMS Energy's earnings guidance for fiscal years 2026 and 2027?

On July 28, 2026, CMS Energy reaffirmed adjusted earnings-per-share guidance for fiscal year 2026 of between $3.83 and $3.90 and expressed confidence in trending toward the upper end. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.50 and adjusted net income was $464 million in the first half of fiscal year 2026. It also provided fiscal year 2027 guidance of between $4.08 and $4.17, reaffirming a long-term annual growth target of 6% to 8% from actual fiscal year 2025 results.

Why is CMS Energy exiting renewable energy development at NorthStar?

The company decided to redirect approximately $1.7 billion of capital primarily designated for non-utility renewable energy development, aiming to simplify its model and focus on regulated utility investments. It will retain Dearborn Industrial Generation, the Kalamazoo and Livingston gas-fired plants, and four commercial solar projects in Michigan because they generate cash flow and do not require significant capital investment. Management expects the combination of capital reallocation, cash flows from retained assets, and sale proceeds to reduce financing needs by more than $500 million through 2030, targeting completion of the restructuring by the end of 2026.

How large is CMS Energy's data center and new-load opportunity?
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

−
The earnings plan depends on constructive regulatory outcomes that have not yet been resolved, including the requested $456 million electric revenue increase, the revised $232 million gas request, a two-year investment recovery mechanism, and a request to defer storm costs; an outcome below management's assumptions could weaken earnings or financing.
  • −Storms created tangible operating pressure in the first half of fiscal year 2026, with higher unfavorable operating and maintenance expenses having an impact of $0.19 per share, while the second-half plan depends partly on a constructive decision regarding storm-cost deferral and storm activity returning to normal to generate an expected positive impact of $0.25.
  • −The data center opportunity remains contingent on the customer obtaining local zoning approval, and related load-growth investments had not been included in the capital plan as of the July 28, 2026 call; therefore, the timing of loads, investments, and the estimated customer benefit could be delayed if the approval process takes longer.
  • −The NorthStar restructuring, targeted for completion by the end of 2026, involves execution and sale risks because fiscal year 2027 guidance assumes the sale of certain assets, while the financing benefit exceeding $500 million through 2030 depends on capital reallocation, cash flows from retained assets, and proceeds from selling projects and other assets.
  • −The plan remains financing-intensive; it assumes total new equity issuances of $3.75 billion, including $700 million during fiscal year 2026 and approximately $3 billion for the remainder of the plan before the impact of the NorthStar restructuring, exposing shareholders to dilution risk if the expected financing reductions do not materialize.
  • −Adjusted earnings per share for the first half of fiscal year 2026 declined by $0.23 year over year, and performance included a negative impact of $0.08 from the weather and cooling- and heating-degree comparison; insider activity also showed net sales of 208,439 shares during the three months ending with the latest transaction on July 31, 2026, while acknowledging that insider sales may be prearranged and do not alone represent a strong signal.
  • The company entered into a rate agreement and a special facilities agreement with a customer under the large-load tariff, but according to the July 28, 2026 call, the customer still needs local zoning approval. Management estimates that each gigawatt of new large loads could provide the average residential electricity customer with a benefit of approximately $7.50 per month because the large customer bears the additional resources required to serve it and fixed costs are spread across a broader base. In addition, CMS Energy has contracted approximately 135 megawatts of manufacturing and industrial loads since the beginning of fiscal year 2026, and data center load-growth investments were not included in the existing capital plan when the call was issued.

    How does CMS Energy finance its utility investment plan?

    The current utility investment plan totals $24 billion, and the company expects it to drive compound asset-base growth of 10.5%. The financing plan assumed total new equity issuance of $3.75 billion, including $700 million in fiscal year 2026; approximately $500 million of the year's issuance had been completed through the at-the-market program by July 28, 2026. Management expects the NorthStar restructuring to allow a reduction of at least $350 million in planned equity issuance, in addition to reducing total financing needs by more than $500 million through 2030.

    What are the main operating and regulatory risks facing CMS Energy?

    Storms resulted in a negative impact of $0.19 per share from operating and maintenance expenses during the first half of fiscal year 2026, and the second-half plan depends partly on a constructive outcome for the storm-cost deferral request and a return of storm activity to normal. The company is also requesting a $456 million electric revenue increase and a $232 million gas revenue increase, so earnings remain sensitive to regulatory decisions. In addition, the data center opportunity is subject to zoning approval, while fiscal year 2027 guidance assumes the sale of certain NorthStar assets, adding timing and execution risks.

    What did the latest EDGAR data show about CMS Energy's earnings?

    CMS Energy reported revenue of $1.8 billion, net income of $120 million, and earnings per share of $0.37 in Q2 of fiscal year 2026. This equates to a calculated net income margin of approximately 6.7%, while the available data did not include a gross profit figure. In fiscal year 2025, revenue was $8.5 billion, net income was $1.1 billion, and earnings per share were $3.53, while the latest twelve-month period in the 2026 data showed revenue of $8.9 billion and net income of $1.0 billion.