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Commercial Metals Company
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall79
Strong — clearly above market medianTurnaroundF 4/9Grey zoneBetter than 79% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
86
12.7x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
65
15.2%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
49
10.8%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
62
2.5x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
33
1.10%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
55
22.4%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
89
7▲3Top tier
CMC

CMC Commercial Metals Company

Commercial Metals Company · NYSE
Market Closed
67.17
▲ ⁦+0.83%⁩ (+0.55)
Market Cap$7.4B
Beta1.53
52w Low52w High
53.0884.87
Last Week
⁦-2.86%⁩
Last Month
⁦-6.76%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-8.70%⁩
Last Year
⁦+15.02%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$67
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$80
⁦+19%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$75–$89⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$35
⁦-47%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦11.2⁩% discount · ⁦9⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$35–$80⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$82.00
⁦+22.1%⁩
Current Price $67.17·Median $80.00
Low
$75.00
High
$89.00
Current price
$67.17
Average target
$82.00
Street summary

CMC Price Target Revision Analysis

Bullish tilt

Analysts have shown increasing optimism toward CMC stock over the past 30 days, with the average price target rising from 80.67 to 82 dollars, an increase of 1.65%. This trend reflects growing confidence, especially since the lowest price target (75 dollars) remains above the current price of 72.13 dollars. This positive outlook has also been reinforced by upgrades and maintained ratings from major institutions such as Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas over the past two months.

As of 2026-08-13
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.92
Buy
Analyst coverage
12
Buy conviction
67%
High
Target dispersion
21%
Analyst ratings over time12 analysts rating
3
5
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.54 → 3.92
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-06
    Goldman Sachs
    Buy
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-07-08
    BNP Paribas
    NeutralOutperform
  • = Reiterate2026-06-29
    BMO Capital
    Market Perform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    12.70x
    4.94x39.51x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    9.54x
    3.70x29.59x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    8.91x
    2.62x20.92x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    5.5%
    -21.3%8.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    15.2%
    -21.2%90.4%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    1553.1%
    -249.5%198.4%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    18.6%
    7.6%58.9%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    10.8%
    -52.6%20.2%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.54x
    0.22x3.72x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    1.1%
    0.2%5.5%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    13.8%
    4.7%147.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    2.96
    -11.4212.56
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-06-25 data

Company Overview

Commercial Metals Company operates through three interconnected pillars: the North America Steel Group, the Europe Steel Group, and the Construction Solutions Group. The company generates revenue from the sale of rebar, merchant bar, and other steel products, alongside Precast, TENSAR, INTERAX, GeoGrid, and GalvaBar solutions aimed at infrastructure, data center, energy, and soil stabilization projects. Combining steel mills with the construction solutions network enables the company to share project opportunities and serve customers with products that go beyond supplying rebar alone.

In Q3 fiscal 2026, core earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $354 million at a margin of 14.2%, mathematically indicating consolidated revenue of approximately $2.49 billion. The company recorded net income of $173 million and diluted earnings per share of $1.55, while adjusted earnings rose 142.4% year over year to $193 million, or $1.73 per share. Core earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 78.6% year over year, and the margin expanded by 440 basis points.

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for the North America Steel Group reached $254 million, up 41% year over year, and equaled $134 per ton shipped. Construction Solutions Group sales nearly doubled to $395 million, including $176 million from the acquired Precast operations, while the group’s adjusted earnings increased 138% to $97.4 million at a margin of 24.7%. The Europe Steel Group generated $34.7 million, but this figure included a $20.4 million carbon dioxide emissions credit.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Management expects a sequential increase of $40 to $50 million in core earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization during Q4 fiscal 2026; this includes approximately $40 million from improvement in the North America Steel Group following the completion of maintenance outages, the recovery of volumes, and the expansion of metal margins.
  • The TAG program is progressing ahead of its target of $150 million in annual benefits in fiscal 2026, benefiting from improved scrap procurement, higher melt and rolling yields, and reduced alloy consumption and logistics costs, alongside commercial discipline and reduced price leakage.
  • CMC is targeting adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of between $165 and $175 million for the Precast operations in fiscal 2026, supported by a backlog that management described as record-setting and low-single-digit year-over-year growth in backlog value. Final bookings also increased by more than 9% year over year in Q3 fiscal 2026.
  • The Arizona 2 mill reached 75% capacity utilization, while the company is targeting hot commissioning of the West Virginia mill in the latter part of summer 2026, followed by production of approximately 250 thousand to 300 thousand tons during fiscal 2027. The company is also beginning operations at the new GeoGrid line in Blackwell, while the second GalvaBar line in Knoxville is expected to start in late 2026.
  • On August 5, 2026, the Board of Directors increased the share repurchase authorization by $600 million, raising the remaining capacity to approximately $717 million after repurchasing $733 million of shares since October 2021. Insider activity during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 13, 2026, recorded two purchases and no sales.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case5 pts

  • +Q3 fiscal 2026 provides quantitative evidence of improved earnings quality, as core earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 78.6% and the margin expanded to 14.2%, despite mill outage costs, weather disruptions, and scrap pressure.
  • +The Construction Solutions platform increases earnings diversification beyond the steel cycle alone; the group’s margin reached 24.7%, Precast added $52.9 million to its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, and increased the margin by 4.4 percentage points in Q3 fiscal 2026.
  • +Infrastructure, data center, semiconductor, and power grid projects support demand for multiple products within CMC’s portfolio, with more than 50% of IIJA funding remaining unspent as of June 25, 2026, and final bookings increasing by more than 9% year over year.
  • +Acquisition-adjusted net leverage improved to 2.1 times, and liquidity reached approximately $1.8 billion with no near-term refinancing needs, while management is targeting a reduction in leverage to below two times by mid-2027 or earlier.
  • +The remaining repurchase authorization of approximately $717 million represents about 9.6% of the stated market capitalization of $7.5 billion, giving the company substantial capacity to reduce its share count if cash flows and debt-reduction priorities permit.

Valuation

The analyst consensus on CMC is “Neutral,” with an average price target of $82 and a target range between $75 and $89, representing a $14 spread between the endpoints. The average target is approximately 3.4% below the 52-week range high of $84.87, while the highest target exceeds that high by approximately 4.9%; therefore, the targets reflect relatively limited room above the highest recorded annual level, alongside risks from new capacity, acquisition-related burdens, and capital expenditures.

HoldAnalyst target: $82(+22.1%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove CMC’s earnings growth in Q3 fiscal 2026?

Core earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 78.6% year over year to $354 million, and the margin expanded by 440 basis points to 14.2%. The North America Steel Group benefited from a $111 per ton expansion in metal margin compared with Q3 fiscal 2025 and from TAG program benefits. The Precast operations also added $52.9 million to the Construction Solutions Group’s adjusted earnings, while Europe’s results included a $20.4 million carbon dioxide emissions credit.

What is CMC’s outlook for Q4 fiscal 2026?

Management expects a sequential increase of $40 to $50 million in core earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. The North America Steel Group is expected to benefit by approximately $20 million from the non-recurrence of maintenance outages, with a roughly similar benefit from higher volumes and improved margins. The company also expects sequential growth in the mid-teens for Construction Solutions Group earnings, offset by a decline in total Europe earnings due to the non-recurrence of the carbon dioxide credit.

How important are the Precast acquisitions to CMC’s strategy?

The acquired Precast operations contributed sales of $176 million and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $52.9 million in Q3 fiscal 2026. The company is targeting earnings of between $165 and $175 million for the Precast operations in fiscal 2026, with a record backlog according to management. CMC expects synergies of between $35 and $40 million from the two acquisitions over three years, beginning to materialize in the second year and reaching full realization in the third year.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −The U.S. rebar market faces a risk from expanding domestic capacity; the call discussed additions including approximately 700 thousand tons from Hybar and between 500 thousand and 700 thousand tons from Pacific Steel, alongside CMC’s new capacity, in a market estimated at approximately 10 million tons. If demand does not grow at the expected pace, this capacity could pressure prices and mill utilization rates.
  • −Margin protection depends partly on the continuation of trade measures; U.S. imports increased 20% from the beginning of the period referenced in the call, with South Korea being the primary source of the increase. CMC secured final duties of 200% against Algeria and preliminary duties against three other countries that together cover approximately 500 thousand tons, but the effectiveness of the protection remains tied to trade policy enforcement and the conversion of preliminary duties into final duties.
  • −Q3 fiscal 2026 demonstrated earnings sensitivity to outages, weather, and scrap; maintenance at seven of ten mills cost approximately $20 million, while low inventory, weather, and commercial discipline resulted in the loss of approximately 50 thousand tons valued at nearly $10 million, and the Construction Solutions Group incurred an additional impact of approximately $5 million.
  • −Precast acquisition accounting and higher interest expense will remain a burden on pre-tax earnings of approximately $60 to $65 million per quarter during the two quarters following the June 25, 2026 call. Approximately one-third of this amount relates to the amortization of acquired backlogs, an item that continues through fiscal 2027.
  • −Of the Europe Steel Group’s $34.7 million in earnings during Q3 fiscal 2026, $20.4 million came from a carbon dioxide credit. Because this credit will not recur in Q4 fiscal 2026, management expects Europe’s earnings to decline sequentially despite an improvement in underlying operating earnings of approximately $3 to $5 million.
  • −Expected capital expenditures total $550 million in fiscal 2026, including $300 to $350 million to complete the West Virginia mill. The project’s carrying cost is also expected to double from $4 to $5 million per quarter before saleable production emerges, creating execution and cash flow risks during the ramp-up phase.
How will the Arizona 2 and West Virginia mills affect CMC’s growth?

Capacity utilization at Arizona 2 reached 75% during Q3 fiscal 2026, and the mill is now producing the vast majority of the targeted merchant bar sizes alongside rebar. CMC plans to begin hot commissioning of the West Virginia mill in the latter part of summer 2026 following approximately 100 days of weather-related delays. The company expects production of approximately 250 thousand to 300 thousand tons from West Virginia during fiscal 2027, with a ramp-up period estimated at approximately 12 months.

Does CMC’s balance sheet allow for share repurchases while funding growth?

Acquisition-adjusted net leverage reached 2.1 times in Q3 fiscal 2026, and management is targeting a level below two times by mid-2027 or earlier. The company has approximately $1.8 billion in liquidity and faces no near-term refinancing needs, but it expects capital expenditures of $550 million in fiscal 2026. On August 5, 2026, the remaining share repurchase capacity increased to approximately $717 million after the authorization was raised by $600 million.