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Home
Stocks
Cincinnati Financial Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall90
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 5/9Better than 90% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
69
8.0x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
69
19.6%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
94
——Top tier
▸
Safety
49
——Around median
▸
Capital Return
54
2.13%2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
65
13.3%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
82
8▲3Top tier
CINF

CINF Cincinnati Financial Corporation

Cincinnati Financial Corporation · NASDAQ
Market Closed
169.80
▲ ⁦+0.12%⁩ (+0.21)
Market Cap$26.1B
Beta0.55
52w Low52w High
150.00194.81
Last Week
⁦-1.10%⁩
Last Month
⁦-1.97%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+2.02%⁩
Last Year
⁦+10.48%⁩
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$170
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$197
⁦+16%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$197–$200⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$370
⁦+118%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$197–$370⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$198.00
⁦+16.6%⁩
Current Price $169.80·Median $197.00
Low
$197.00
High
$200.00
Current price
$169.80
Average target
$198.00
Street summary

Cincinnati Financial (CINF) Price Target Revision Analysis

Bullish tilt

The stock has seen a notable positive revision in its average price target over the past thirty days, with the consensus rising from $182.5 to $198, an increase of 8.49%. This adjustment reflects growing optimism despite stable qualitative ratings, as firms such as Roth MKM maintained a 'Buy' rating and Piper Sandler a 'Neutral' rating during July 2026, indicating analyst conviction in a price growth gap compared to the current price of $179.42.

As of 2026-08-04
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.25
Hold
Analyst coverage
8
Buy conviction
25%
Target dispersion
2%
Analyst ratings over time8 analysts rating
2
6
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.63 → 3.25
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-28
    Roth MKM
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-15
    Piper Sandler
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-05-26
    Piper Sandler
    Neutral· $175.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    8.05x
    3.16x25.26x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    19.08x
    2.76x22.06x
    Expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    —
    —
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    19.6%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    82.5%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    2.1%
    0.6%9.0%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    16.3%
    9.8%97.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-28 data

Company Overview

Cincinnati Financial Corporation operates in property and casualty insurance through commercial lines, personal lines, and excess and surplus lines, alongside reinsurance operations through Cincinnati Re and global operations through Cincinnati Global. It also operates a life insurance subsidiary and relies on relationships with independent insurance agents to distribute its policies; its results come from insurance premiums and underwriting profits, in addition to investment portfolio income and gains or losses from changes in its fair value.

In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, revenue reached $4.3 billion and net income was approximately $1.3 billion, equivalent to earnings per share of $8.05. However, net income included $882 million after tax from an increase in the fair value of securities held, while non-GAAP operating income declined to $224 million from $311 million a year earlier; therefore, most of the accounting increase in profit was related to the investment portfolio rather than improved underwriting.

Consolidated property and casualty net written premiums grew 3% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, but the combined ratio increased 5.9 percentage points to 100.8%, indicating a slight underwriting loss before investment income. Commercial lines achieved 3% growth and a combined ratio of 104.1%, and personal lines achieved 1% growth and a ratio of 99.9%, while excess and surplus lines recorded 8% growth and a ratio of 90.5%; Cincinnati Re achieved 16% growth and a ratio of 87.6%, compared with a ratio of 110.8% and 1% growth at Cincinnati Global.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Investment income increased 12% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, with bond interest income growing 14% and the average pretax yield on the fixed-income portfolio rising to 5.08%, while the average yield on bonds purchased during the quarter was 5.66%.
  • Operations generated cash flow of $1.4 billion during the first half of fiscal year 2026, up 29% year over year, supporting net purchases of fixed-income instruments worth $940 million during the same period and strengthening the foundation for investment income growth.
  • Approximately two-thirds of the 3% growth in consolidated net written premiums came from price increases, while the remaining third came from higher insured exposures such as payrolls, sales, and property values; however, renewal price increases in most lines were lower than in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026.
  • High-net-worth business represents slightly more than 60% of personal lines business, and management said it expects its share to continue rising while maintaining profitability as a priority, despite reducing exposure to certain homeowners insurance policies in California following the wildfires.
  • Cincinnati Re showed the strongest growth among the operations mentioned, with net written premiums increasing 16% and a combined ratio of 87.6%, while excess and surplus lines achieved 8% growth and a combined ratio of 90.5%, providing diversification and better underwriting profitability than commercial lines and Cincinnati Global.
  • The company repurchased approximately 1.3 million shares in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 for $216 million at an average of $161.93 per share, alongside paying $143 million in cash dividends; cash and marketable securities at the parent company totaled $5.7 billion, while debt remained below 10% of total capital.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The balance sheet gives the company a clear ability to withstand insurance volatility and fund growth, as consolidated GAAP shareholders’ equity totaled approximately $17 billion, and book value was $108.64 per share at the end of the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, with debt below 10% of total capital.
  • +Underlying underwriting performance remained stable despite catastrophes, as the current accident year combined ratio before catastrophe losses was 87.8% in the first half of fiscal year 2026, compared with 87.7% in the corresponding period of fiscal year 2025.
  • +Investment income growth provides an increasing earnings driver, supported by higher fixed-income yields and operating cash flow that increased 29% to $1.4 billion in the first half of fiscal year 2026.
  • +Cincinnati Re and excess and surplus lines offer an attractive combination of growth and underwriting profitability, with premium growth of 16% and 8% and combined ratios of 87.6% and 90.5%, respectively, in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $198, within a narrow range between $197 and $200, compared with a yearly share price range between $150 and $194.81; this means the average target exceeds the top of the 52-week range by only a limited margin. The analyst consensus is neutral, consistent with balancing the strength of the balance sheet and investment income growth against slowing premiums, the increase in the combined ratio to 100.8%, and the reliance of a large portion of net income in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 on fair value gains.

HoldAnalyst target: $198(+16.6%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove CINF’s earnings in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026?

Cincinnati Financial’s net income was approximately $1.3 billion, or $8.05 per share, on revenue of $4.3 billion in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026. This profit included $882 million after tax from an increase in the fair value of securities held. In contrast, non-GAAP operating income declined to $224 million from $311 million a year earlier, demonstrating that investment gains were the largest factor in reported profit.

Did Cincinnati Financial’s underwriting profitability improve?

The property and casualty combined ratio increased to 100.8% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, up 5.9 percentage points, including 2.3 points related to higher catastrophe losses. Commercial lines recorded a ratio of 104.1%, while the ratio was 99.9% in personal lines and 90.5% in excess and surplus lines. Nevertheless, the current accident year combined ratio before catastrophes remained nearly stable at 87.8% in the first half of fiscal year 2026 versus 87.7% a year earlier.

How important is the investment portfolio to CINF’s results?

Investment income increased 12% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, and bond interest income grew 14% as the average pretax yield on the fixed-income portfolio reached 5.08%. Pretax gains from changes in the value of the equity portfolio totaled $1.3 billion, and the bond portfolio added valuation gains of $79 million. At the end of the quarter, the cumulative net appreciation in the investment portfolio was approximately $8.6 billion, but it makes reported net income sensitive to market movements.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

−
Growth in consolidated net written premiums slowed to 3% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 as renewal price increases declined from the previous quarter, and personal lines recorded growth of only 1% due to lower new business premiums in a softening and increasingly competitive insurance market.
  • −Consolidated underwriting profitability deteriorated, as the property and casualty combined ratio increased 5.9 percentage points to 100.8%, the commercial lines ratio jumped 11.2 points to 104.1%, and the underwriting expense ratio rose 1.2 points due to commissions and the timing of recognizing certain expenses.
  • −The results have meaningful exposure to catastrophe volatility and large losses, as higher catastrophe losses added 2.3 points to the combined ratio, and current accident year large losses totaled $112 million in the first half of fiscal year 2026 versus $101 million a year earlier, including one property loss that had an impact of approximately $15 million.
  • −Cincinnati Global recorded a high combined ratio of 110.8% and was affected by a net loss of approximately $10 million related to an event in Saudi Arabia and a reserve of approximately $7.5 million for an event cancellation incident, highlighting the sensitivity of global operations to geopolitical and unforeseen events.
  • −Commercial casualty lines face pressure from rising claim severity, legal system abuse, and the uncertainty inherent in estimating losses, and these operations recorded $14 million of unfavorable reserve development in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 related to older accident years and a limited number of insureds.
  • −The neutral analyst consensus reflects a narrow target range between $197 and $200, while the insider trading signal showed net selling of $1.2 million during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 25, 2026; these sales are a weak standalone signal because they may have been prearranged.
  • Where is Cincinnati Financial’s premium growth concentrated?

    Consolidated net written premiums grew 3% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, with approximately two-thirds of the growth coming from pricing and one-third from increased insured exposures. Cincinnati Re achieved growth of 16%, and excess and surplus lines recorded 8%, while commercial lines grew 3% and personal lines only 1%. High-net-worth business also represents slightly more than 60% of personal lines business, while the company continues to prioritize profitability over the pace of growth.

    What are the key operating risks facing CINF stock?

    The softening insurance market slowed premium growth and reduced renewal price increases compared with the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, particularly in new personal lines business. Current accident year large losses also increased to $112 million in the first half of fiscal year 2026 from $101 million a year earlier, and the commercial lines combined ratio was 104.1%. In commercial casualty, management cited pressure from claim severity and legal system abuse, with unfavorable reserve development of $14 million in the quarter.

    What does Cincinnati Financial’s capital policy look like?

    The company paid $143 million in cash dividends and repurchased approximately 1.3 million shares for $216 million during the second quarter of fiscal year 2026. Total repurchases in the first half of fiscal year 2026 were approximately 2.4 million shares, while management said repurchase decisions are reviewed from quarter to quarter. This policy is supported by $5.7 billion in cash and marketable securities at the parent company, consolidated shareholders’ equity of approximately $17 billion, and debt below 10% of total capital.