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Stocks
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall58
Balanced — near the middle of the marketFalling StarF 8/9SafeCongress sellingBetter than 58% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
43
29.0x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
16
-0.1%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
68
18.4%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
74
1.9x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
61
1.64%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
38
20.8%▲2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
88
15▲3Top tier
CHRW

CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
152.78
▲ ⁦+0.24%⁩ (+0.36)
Market Cap$18.0B
Beta0.95
52w Low52w High
123.64210.33
Last Week
⁦+5.22%⁩
Last Month
⁦+4.17%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-15.07%⁩
Last Year
⁦+18.17%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$153
Analyst target · 7 analysts
$200
⁦+31%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$91–$237⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$70
⁦-54%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦8.6⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$70–$200⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 7 analysts setting price target
$194.50
⁦+27.3%⁩
Current Price $152.78·Median $200.00
Low
$91.00
High
$237.00
Current price
$152.78
Average target
$194.50
Street summary

Stable Targets with Limited Improvement in Ratings

Price target expectations have not changed over the last day, 7 days, or 30 days; consensus remained at $194.5 from seven analysts, compared with a current price of $152.42. The target range is between $91 and $237, with a median of $200, reflecting wide variation in analysts’ estimates despite stable consensus.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.84
Buy
Analyst coverage
25
Buy conviction
72%
High
Rating activity · 30d
1↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
96%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time25 analysts rating
4
14
6
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.65 → 3.84
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-09-08
    Citigroup
    OutperformBuy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-11
    Bernstein
    Market Perform
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-07-31
    SunTrust Robinson Humphrey
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    29.05x
    5.69x45.54x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    22.49x
    4.57x36.58x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    21.08x
    3.43x27.47x
    Above average
  • FCF Yield
    3.7%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -0.1%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    19.3%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    10.1%
    8.6%54.6%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    18.4%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.95x
    0.55x4.37x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    1.6%
    0.1%4.8%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    47.9%
    6.6%80.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    7.69
    -5.667.97
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-29 data

Company Overview

C.H. Robinson Worldwide operates in transportation and logistics services management, including North American Surface Transportation NAST, Global Forwarding, and 4PL Managed Solutions. Its model relies on coordinating shipments between customers and carriers and managing pricing and costs throughout the order cycle, from quoting to collection, with a mix of contractual and spot business; contractual shipments represented approximately 70% of NAST truckload volume in Q2 fiscal 2026, compared with approximately 65% in the comparable quarter. The company also operates an LTL business valued at more than $3 billion and uses its Lean AI strategy to reduce service costs, automate operations, and support pricing decisions.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, revenue reached $4.93 billion, up 19.3% year over year, while net income according to EDGAR data was approximately $186.8 million and diluted earnings per share were $1.56, while adjusted earnings per share reached $1.61, up 24.8%. Adjusted gross profit AGP rose 6.5%, and adjusted operating income increased 20%, with 96% of the year-over-year increase in AGP converted into adjusted operating income. The data does not include a consolidated dollar figure for gross margin, but the call indicated that the gross margin percentage declined sequentially to 13.1% from 14.6% due to higher spot-market and fuel costs and contract pressure.

Regarding the operating mix, NAST volume increased 1.5% despite a 3.3% decline in the Cass Freight Shipment Index, while LTL volume grew approximately 2% and truckload volume approximately 0.5%. NAST's adjusted operating margin, excluding restructuring, reached 40.9% after expanding by 280 basis points, while Global Forwarding's adjusted margin reached 33.4% after expanding by 470 basis points and improving productivity by more than 15%. NAST shipments per employee per day increased 15% year over year, and the cumulative productivity improvement across NAST and Global Forwarding exceeded 60% since the end of 2022.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Q2 fiscal 2026 results clearly exceeded expectations; revenue of $4.93 billion surpassed market estimates by 11.7%, and adjusted earnings per share of $1.61 exceeded expectations by 5.2%, prompting SunTrust Robinson Humphrey to upgrade the stock to “Buy” on July 31, 2026.
  • Lean AI continues to improve operating leverage, as adjusted operating income rose 20% and the incremental margin reached 96%, while average headcount remained 10.8% lower year over year despite volume growth. The technology organization includes more than 450 engineers and data scientists and hundreds of specialized agents, while Lean AI Engineer can assess an entire supply chain in 25 to 30 minutes instead of as long as four weeks.
  • NAST achieved market-share gains for the thirteenth consecutive quarter; its volume grew 1.5% in Q2 fiscal 2026 versus a 3.3% contraction in the Cass index. The company recorded growth in truckload volumes across the automotive, retail, and technology sectors, benefiting from drop-trailer, cross-border, expedited, and short-haul services.
  • The company maintained its fiscal 2026 operating income forecast of between $964 million and $1.04 billion, although the 4.7% decline in the Cass index during the first half made the original market growth assumption of between 0% and 5% less likely. The lower end of the target is now based on a 3% market contraction, supported by an additional $40 million from self-help initiatives that were not included at the beginning of the year.
  • The company invested $79 million in acquisitions during Q2 fiscal 2026, including the acquisition of DeSpir Logistics in June 2026 to add specialized expertise in high-value freight transportation solutions. In the same quarter, it returned $301.3 million to shareholders, an increase of approximately 88%, split between $226 million in share repurchases and $75.3 million in dividends.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +C.H. Robinson demonstrated its ability to grow earnings in a weak freight market, with Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue increasing 19.3% and adjusted earnings per share rising 24.8%, despite the Cass index continuing to decline year over year for the fifteenth consecutive quarter.
  • +Cumulative productivity gains exceeding 60% since the end of 2022 provide a scalable operating base, as reflected in a 96% incremental margin and expansion in adjusted operating margins at both NAST and Global Forwarding.
  • +NAST volume outperforming the Cass index for 13 consecutive quarters, alongside LTL growth for ten consecutive quarters, indicates sustained market-share gains rather than the result of only one quarter.
  • +Liquidity was approximately $900 million at the end of Q2 fiscal 2026, enabling the company to fund technology investment, acquire DeSpir Logistics, and return $301.3 million to shareholders during the same quarter.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −

Valuation

The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $194.5 and a very wide range of $91 to $237; the average is below the 52-week high of $210.33, while the highest target exceeds that peak. The wide range of targets reflects significant disagreement over the sustainability of Lean AI gains and margins versus weakness in the freight market, cost pressure, and legal risks, and the data does not provide a valid P/E ratio to add another valuation anchor.

BuyAnalyst target: $194.5(+27.3%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

How did C.H. Robinson achieve growth in Q2 fiscal 2026 despite weakness in the freight market?

Revenue increased 19.3% to $4.93 billion, while NAST volume grew 1.5% despite a 3.3% decline in the Cass index. The company maintained AGP per truckload at a level comparable with the previous year despite a 29% increase in linehaul cost per mile. Contract repricing, selection of higher-margin spot shipments, and market-share gains contributed to a 6.5% increase in AGP and a 20% increase in adjusted operating income.

What is the actual financial impact of C.H. Robinson's Lean AI strategy?

NAST and Global Forwarding have achieved productivity improvements exceeding 60% since the end of 2022, while NAST shipments per employee per day increased 15% in Q2 fiscal 2026. Average headcount declined 10.8% year over year, while NAST volumes increased 1.5%. This helped generate a 96% incremental margin and expand NAST's adjusted operating margin to 40.9% and Global Forwarding's to 33.4%.

How important are the LTL and truckload businesses to CHRW's results?

C.H. Robinson operates an LTL business valued at more than $3 billion, which achieved volume growth of approximately 2% in Q2 fiscal 2026 and for the tenth consecutive quarter. Truckload volume grew approximately 0.5%, with contractual business remaining at approximately 70% of its mix compared with approximately 65% a year earlier. The combined LTL and truckload capabilities allow some shipments to be shifted between the two modes based on pricing, complexity, and supply-chain requirements.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Underlying freight demand remains weak; the Cass Freight Shipment Index declined 3.3% in Q2 fiscal 2026 and 4.7% during the first half, while management indicated that the originally assumed market growth of between 0% and 5% had become less likely.
  • −Brokerage profitability is under pressure from higher spot transportation costs, as DAT spot rates excluding fuel increased approximately 34% year over year and the company's linehaul cost per mile rose 29%. The gross margin percentage declined sequentially to 13.1% from 14.6%, despite AGP per truckload remaining stable year over year.
  • −Year-over-year growth in AGP per business day slowed from 9% in April 2026 to 7% in May and then 3% in June, and management cautioned against treating one month's reading as a sustainable trajectory. It also expected spot rates to remain elevated and potentially rise again during the Q4 fiscal 2026 holidays, prolonging the need to reprice contracts.
  • −Operating cash flow declined to $35.9 million in Q2 fiscal 2026 because of higher receivables and working capital as freight rates increased. At the same time, the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio rose to 1.64 times from 1.32 times at the end of the previous quarter following share repurchases and investment in acquisitions.
  • −The Texas litigation represents a legal and insurance risk; a jury issued an advisory verdict that the company disputes and intends to appeal if it becomes final, and the appeals process could take years. Management acknowledged that insurance costs will rise year over year after the existing coverage expires at the end of 2026, without providing a numerical estimate of the increase or the case's ultimate outcome.
  • −The valuation involves a high degree of uncertainty; the average analyst target of $194.5 is approximately 7.5% below the 52-week range high of $210.33, while targets range from $91 to $237. The P/E ratio is also unavailable in the data, limiting the ability to compare the stock's valuation with its earnings on a consistent basis.
  • What is C.H. Robinson's guidance for fiscal 2026?

    The company maintained its fiscal 2026 operating income target of between $964 million and $1.04 billion and confirmed its ability to reach the lower end even with a 3% market contraction. It set personnel expenses at between $1.25 billion and $1.35 billion, expecting them to approach the upper end because of higher incentives. It also narrowed its SG&A expense range to $540–580 million and reduced its capital expenditure forecast to $65–75 million.

    How does the Texas case affect the risks surrounding CHRW stock?

    In July 2026, a jury in Texas issued an advisory verdict that C.H. Robinson disputes, and the company said it would appeal immediately if the verdict were entered as final. The company maintains that the carrier was independent and that the driver was not its employee, but the ultimate outcome remains subject to post-trial and appellate proceedings and could take years. Management also said its insurance coverage extends through the end of 2026 and that insurance costs will rise year over year without specifying the amount of the increase.

    How did C.H. Robinson allocate capital in Q2 fiscal 2026?

    The company returned $301.3 million to shareholders, including $226 million in share repurchases and $75.3 million in dividends, an overall increase of approximately 88% year over year. It also allocated $79 million to acquisitions, including DeSpir Logistics in June 2026 to strengthen high-value freight transportation solutions. Liquidity was approximately $900 million, while the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio increased to 1.64 times from 1.32 times at the end of Q1 fiscal 2026.