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Stocks
Chord Energy Corporation
CHRD

CHRD Chord Energy Corporation

Chord Energy Corporation · NASDAQ
Market Closed
152.01
▲ ⁦+0.13%⁩ (+0.19)
Market Cap$8.6B
Beta0.38
52w Low52w High
84.25154.00
Last Week
⁦+1.62%⁩
Last Month
⁦+15.73%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+6.41%⁩
Last Year
⁦+48.19%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall97
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 6/9Grey zoneBetter than 97% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
93
10.1x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
66
19.2%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
82
10.4%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
80
0.3x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
43
3.43%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
95
29.8%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
42
8▲3Around median
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$152
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$171
⁦+12%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$145–$189⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$332
⁦+118%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$171–$332⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$170.00
⁦+11.8%⁩
Current Price $152.01·Median $171.00
Low
$145.00
High
$189.00
Current price
$152.01
Average target
$170.00
Street summary

Slight Increase in Consensus with Limited Dispersion

The consensus price target rose over the last 30 days from $166.17 to $170, an increase of $3.83 or 2.3%, while remaining unchanged over the last 7 days and 1 day. The number of analysts remained steady at two, meaning the improvement does not reflect a broader coverage base. The consensus is above the current price of $151.82, but the range between $145 and $189 indicates clear dispersion among the estimates.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.5%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
15
Buy conviction
87%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
29%
Analyst ratings over time15 analysts rating
2
11
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.94 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-03
    Seaport Global
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-08-13
    Wells Fargo
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-08-12
    UBS
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    10.11x
    3.56x28.47x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    8.27x
    3.36x26.89x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    3.37x
    2.12x16.98x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    14.3%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    19.2%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    282.4%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    71.3%
    7.8%72.1%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    10.4%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.30x
    0.40x3.19x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    3.4%
    0.4%10.1%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    35.0%
    11.9%109.0%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.97
    -1.814.34
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-06 data

Company Overview

Chord Energy Corporation operates under the ticker CHRD as an exploration and production company with an oil-weighted asset base in the Bakken basin, and its operations include more than 5,000 wells. The company generates revenue from the production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids, while its operating plan for more than five years has relied on a “maintenance plus” program to preserve a low-decline production base and support free cash flow. Return-enhancement tools include extending well laterals, accelerating completion work, optimizing artificial lift with artificial intelligence, reusing facility equipment, and improving marketing contracts.

In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, revenue was $2.2 billion, gross profit was $1.5 billion, net income was $525.2 million, and earnings per share were $9.28. These figures equate to a gross profit margin of approximately 68.2% and a net income margin of approximately 23.9%. Compared with Q1 of fiscal year 2026, revenue increased from $1.7 billion, net income from $108.6 million, and earnings per share from $1.90.

A report dated August 10, 2026 stated that Q2 fiscal year 2026 revenue grew 57.2% year over year, supported by increased oil production and improved oil and natural gas liquids prices, while earnings jumped 259.8%. Despite the strong results, earnings per share fell short of analysts’ expectations. On the cash flow front, Chord Energy generated adjusted free cash flow of $414 million and returned $220 million, or 54% of it, to shareholders through the base dividend and share repurchases.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Chord Energy raised its fiscal year 2026 oil production forecast by 2,000 barrels per day from its original outlook to an average of 161,000 barrels per day, after base production optimization initiatives pushed volumes above expectations.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

The company is targeting the return of at least 75% of adjusted free cash flow to shareholders beginning in Q3 of fiscal year 2026 and through Q4 of fiscal year 2026, compared with returning 54%, or $220 million, in Q2 of fiscal year 2026.
  • The number of four-mile lateral wells brought online reached 26 through August 6, 2026, after four well pads were added since the May 2026 update, and execution results and early performance were in line with management’s expectations. The company intends to expand this program during the second half of fiscal year 2026 and fiscal year 2027.
  • The company executed the basin’s first trimulfrac operation, and management believes this technology could represent between 20% and 50% of the completion program in fiscal year 2027 if operational requirements can be coordinated. It also released its second frac crew in July 2026, supporting the expectation that capital spending will decline in Q3 and then decline again in Q4 of fiscal year 2026.
  • Chord Energy deployed AI-based rod pump optimization broadly across the field and also uses computing to schedule workover fleet activity based on well location, offline production, cost, and parts availability. These tools represent an important operating lever given the presence of more than 5,000 wells in the basin.
  • Free cash flow per share has grown by approximately 30% since fiscal year 2024 on the basis of benchmark commodity prices, alongside efficiency improvements and share repurchases. At the end of Q2 of fiscal year 2026, the liquidity balance was $612 million and benchmark leverage had declined to less than 0.5 times, according to management’s clarification during the question-and-answer session.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case5 pts

    • +Q2 fiscal year 2026 results showed strong financial improvement, with revenue of $2.2 billion and net income of $525.2 million, compared with $1.7 billion and $108.6 million, respectively, in Q1 of fiscal year 2026.
    • +Adjusted free cash flow of $414 million exceeded management’s expectations in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, and the policy of returning at least 75% of it beginning in Q3 allows for a combination of base dividends and share repurchases.
    • +Raising the oil production forecast to 161,000 barrels per day for fiscal year 2026, while keeping the capital outlook essentially unchanged, indicates that well-base optimization and faster execution cycles are increasing volumes without a comparable announced increase in spending.
    • +The four-mile lateral well program, trimulfrac initiatives, and reuse of facility equipment provide defined paths to reduce supply and completion costs. Through August 6, 2026, the performance of 26 four-mile wells was in line with expectations, and the tracers used in fourth-mile stages appeared at the surface, confirming that those stages contributed to production.
    • +Hedges covered approximately 38% of expected oil volumes in the second half of fiscal year 2026 and approximately 18% of fiscal year 2027 volumes, providing partial protection against price declines while leaving a large portion of production exposed to price improvement.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Performance remains sensitive to oil and natural gas liquids prices; improved prices directly contributed to Q2 fiscal year 2026 revenue growth of 57.2%, while management described the commodity price outlook, particularly for oil, as uncertain. The company also expected the Bakken crude premium to WTI to fade during the remainder of fiscal year 2026, and hedges cover only approximately 38% of second-half fiscal year 2026 oil and 18% of fiscal year 2027 oil.
    • −The company raised its operating expense forecast to $10.30 per barrel of oil equivalent for fiscal year 2026 because of production-enhancement initiatives and higher well maintenance costs and operating expenses for non-operated assets. If chemical treatments and maintenance operations do not produce sustainable production gains, near-term cost pressure could translate into weaker returns instead of improved cash flow.
    • −Despite the 259.8% jump in Q2 fiscal year 2026 earnings, earnings per share fell short of analysts’ expectations, making the result mixed relative to market expectations. The twelve-month period ending in fiscal year 2026 also recorded a net loss of $66.8 million and negative earnings per share of approximately $1.18, so no positive price-to-earnings multiple is available to use as a valuation anchor.
    • −Some of the most important production-enhancement initiatives are still in the proof-of-concept stage; management included only a limited amount of the chemical treatments’ impact in its forecasts because it needs to confirm the response’s sustainability and repeatability. It also said the data remained too early to determine whether the four-mile wells were receiving the full assumed contribution from the fourth mile, despite early performance being in line with expectations.
    • −

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $168.29, within a wide range of $145 to $189, and the stock carries a consensus “Buy” rating; the average is above the 52-week range high of $153, while the highest target exceeds that high by approximately 23.5%. By contrast, the 52-week range extends from $84.25 to $153, and no positive price-to-earnings multiple is available, as the twelve-month period ending in fiscal year 2026 recorded a net loss of $66.8 million and negative earnings per share of approximately $1.18, despite strong profitability in Q2 of fiscal year 2026; therefore, the valuation reflects a bet on the sustainability of quarterly improvement and cash flow more than it reflects twelve-month earnings.

    BuyAnalyst target: $168.29(+10.7%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove CHRD’s results in Q2 of fiscal year 2026?

    Chord Energy’s revenue in Q2 of fiscal year 2026 was approximately $2.2 billion, while net income was $525.2 million and earnings per share were $9.28. The August 10, 2026 report stated that revenue grew 57.2% year over year and earnings grew 259.8%, supported by increased oil production and improved oil and natural gas liquids prices. Oil production also reached the high end of guidance, while adjusted capital spending came in slightly below the midpoint of the guidance range. Nevertheless, earnings per share did not meet analysts’ expectations.

    How does Chord Energy return cash to CHRD shareholders?

    The company generated adjusted free cash flow of $414 million in Q2 of fiscal year 2026. It returned $220 million, equal to 54% of that cash flow, through the base dividend and share repurchases. After benchmark leverage declined to less than 0.5 times, management is targeting the return of at least 75% of adjusted free cash flow in Q3 and Q4 of fiscal year 2026. The liquidity balance was $612 million at the end of Q2 of fiscal year 2026.

    Why are the four-mile wells important for CHRD stock?

    The number of four-mile lateral wells brought online reached 26 through August 6, 2026, with more than 50 wells drilled according to the question asked on the call. Management said execution and early performance were in line with expectations and that tracers from fourth-mile stages appeared at the surface, confirming their contribution to production. However, it explained that the production period was still insufficient to verify the fourth mile’s full contribution over the longer term. Chord Energy plans to expand the program during the second half of fiscal year 2026 and fiscal year 2027.

    How does Chord Energy use artificial intelligence in its operations?

    The company broadly deployed artificial intelligence to optimize rod pumps across the field, which is the stage ultimately reached by nearly all of its wells. The system adjusts pump loading to reduce wear and improve production more quickly than daily or weekly reviews. The company also uses computing to schedule its workover fleet based on distance, offline production, cost, and spare-parts availability. This is operationally significant because Chord Energy operates more than 5,000 wells in the basin.

    What is Chord Energy’s oil production forecast for fiscal year 2026?

    The company expects average oil production of 161,000 barrels per day during fiscal year 2026. This is 2,000 barrels per day above the original forecast, driven by low-cost, short-cycle initiatives to optimize base production. In contrast, the company raised its operating expense forecast to $10.30 per barrel of oil equivalent because of the expansion of those initiatives and higher maintenance costs and non-operated expenses. It also released its second frac crew in July 2026 and expects spending to decline in Q3 and then Q4 of fiscal year 2026.

    What are the main investment risks facing CHRD?

    Cash flow is closely tied to oil and natural gas liquids prices, and management expected the Bakken crude premium to WTI to fade during the remainder of fiscal year 2026. Hedges provide only partial protection, covering approximately 38% of second-half fiscal year 2026 oil and 18% of fiscal year 2027 oil. The chemical treatments and four-mile wells also have not yet demonstrated the sustainability of their full economic impact, while the expected operating expense was raised to $10.30 per barrel of oil equivalent. In addition, the twelve-month period ending in fiscal year 2026 recorded a net loss of $66.8 million, despite the substantial jump in Q2 fiscal year 2026 profit.

    The described operating base is concentrated in the Bakken basin and includes more than 5,000 wells, increasing the company’s exposure to transportation conditions, price differentials, and production within the basin. Management explained that Bakken crude differentials have historically ranged from an approximately $2 discount to an approximately $2 premium versus WTI, and that the exceptional conditions supporting the Q2 fiscal year 2026 premium would not necessarily continue.
  • −Insider activity during the three months ending August 21, 2026 included seven sales and no purchases, with net sales of $4.2 million, which is a secondary negative trading signal rather than standalone evidence of business deterioration. The insider sales may have been prearranged, as the data do not clarify their nature or motives.