| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 73 | 14.3x | 17.3x | Top tier | |
Growth | 45 | 5.7% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 71 | 9.0% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 39 | 4.8x | 2.6x | Bottom tier | |
Capital Return | 70 | 0.54% | 0.06% | Top tier | |
Momentum | 44 | -8.6% | -1.6% | Around median | |
Sentiment | 73 | 5 | 3 | Top tier |
The floor: what the company is worth if growth stopped today
74% of today's price is what a buyer pays for growth that has not happened yet.
10-year US Treasury yield 4.96% as of 2026-10-22. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Churchill Downs Incorporated operates an ecosystem that combines live horse racing, historical racing machines HRM, wagering services and related technologies, as well as regional gaming properties. The company’s strategy is centered on three key assets: Kentucky Derby as the premier event generating attendance, broadcast, sponsorship, licensing, and wagering revenue; its HRM businesses in Kentucky, Virginia, and New Hampshire; and the TwinSpires platform for direct-to-consumer and business-to-business distribution. The company also owns Exacta technology, which supports HRM operations and enables platform expansion with operators inside and outside the United States.
In Q2 fiscal 2026, the company reported record revenue of $980 million, up 5% year over year, and net income of $241 million, representing a calculated net income margin of approximately 24.6%. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $477 million, up 6% and representing a calculated adjusted margin of approximately 48.7%, while adjusted earnings per share increased 11% to $3.45. On a trailing-twelve-month basis in 2026, revenue was $3.0 billion, net income was $413.4 million, and earnings per share were approximately $5.91.
The performance mix in Q2 fiscal 2026 was broad-based: adjusted earnings from live and historical racing increased 7%, earnings from Kentucky properties operating under the HRM model rose 10%, and the Virginia business grew 1% while maintaining a 46% margin. Earnings in the Wagering Services and Solutions segment increased by more than 8%, supported by TwinSpires and the expansion of Exacta, while Gaming segment earnings rose 5% and margins at wholly owned casinos remained approximately stable on a same-store basis.
The average analyst price target is $145, approximately 22.5% above the upper end of the 52-week range of $118.35, with the consensus rated “Buy.” However, the highest and lowest targets are both $145, meaning the available target range provides no dispersion that can be used to test a conservative scenario, while the 52-week range extends from $79.40 to $118.35. Therefore, the positive side of the valuation is based on earnings growth, cash flow, and asset value, while the conservative side is linked to leverage of 3.7 times and the execution risks associated with selling the nine properties and reshaping the portfolio.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Revenue reached a record $980 million, up 5%, and net income reached $241 million. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 6% to $477 million, while adjusted earnings per share rose 11% to $3.45. Kentucky Derby contributed to a $16 million increase in adjusted earnings at Churchill Downs Racetrack, alongside growth in Kentucky HRM, TwinSpires, and Exacta.
Derby Week in 2026 welcomed more than 386,000 guests, including approximately 150,000 on Derby Day, allowing the company to distribute demand across multiple days, experiences, and price points. Peak Kentucky Derby viewership exceeded approximately 24 million, while the prime-time Kentucky Oaks broadcast averaged more than 2.4 million viewers on NBC. The new NBC agreement also added $10 million to broadcast revenue, and management expects Derby Week to add between $15 million and $18 million to adjusted earnings in fiscal 2026 compared with the prior fiscal year.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The company operates eight HRM locations in Kentucky with approximately 5,300 machines, and their adjusted earnings increased 10% in Q2 fiscal 2026. In Virginia, the company holds exclusive rights to ten licenses and 5,000 machines and is considering two referendums in Pulaski and Amherst County, with the potential to reallocate machines toward higher-return locations. It also targets opening Rockingham Grand Casino in Salem in mid-2027 and is working to expand Exacta and add electronic table games to its offerings.
Central Virginia locations faced pressure from Petersburg Casino after it opened in January or early February 2026, and the state’s adjusted earnings growth was limited to 1% with a stable margin of 46%. Net leverage under bank covenants was 3.7 times at the end of June 2026, with expectations that it would remain between 3.6 and 3.8 times through the end of fiscal 2026. Part of the debt reduction and share repurchase plan also depends on completing the sale of nine properties, while HRM expansion requires referendums and regulatory approvals.
The company expects project capital expenditures of between $180 million and $220 million and maintenance expenditures of between $90 million and $110 million during fiscal 2026. In the first half of fiscal 2026, it spent $79 million on projects and $38 million on maintenance and generated free cash flow of $474 million. The remaining authorization under the share repurchase program was $430 million at the end of June 2026, alongside a plan to reduce leverage and fund Victory Run and high-return live and historical racing projects.